The Official 2023 Draft Thread

[machu46]

Is there something I'm not seeing with Gradey Dick?

Good size, can shoot it, attacks close outs, 1.7 steals a night, shows potential with rebounding, surprisingly fast first step, strong school, only 19 years old.

It wouldn't shock me if he ends up being a 6'8 Tyler Herro. Defensive concerns exist of course, but he checks a lot of boxes otherwise.

He was targeted pretty relentlessly in college where that isn’t really a thing as much as it is in the NBA. But I tend to agree; think he’ll pretty easily find a role in the NBA. Feels like a very safe pick ala the guy he replaced this year: Christian Braun.

Dick, and later in the first/early second, Jaime Jacques are two of my “don’t overthink it” guys. They are the types Memphis would draft IMO.

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[bartunik]

Creighton fan doing some research. What do you guys think about Trey Alexander?

I don't think he's ready, but maybe that's my bias speaking since his return means we run back what was a very good season.

[payitforward]

His productivity took a nice jump his 2d year in college, so I can imagine him being drafted somewhere in R2, even though his numbers still weren't extraordinary.

Best I've got for you, bartunik!

[gambitx777]

I did know Wallace had injury concerns. But I do still like him. . . Maybe not at 8.

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[doclinkin]

I did know Wallace had injury concerns. But I do still like him. . . Maybe not at 8.

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Right. This may drop him to round 2 where he would be a steal.

[gambitx777]

I did know Wallace had injury concerns. But I do still like him. . . Maybe not at 8.

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Right. This may drop him to round 2 where he would be a steal.

Idk about round 2..... I mean that's pretty far for someone who's probably gonna get a green room Invite. But man what a steal.

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[joshuacf]

I'm a late convert to the upside aspect of drafting. Reluctantly. But stats show that the best of the best show streaks of it early. Young players do develop. Players who produce early tend to have higher upside later, develop even more. The counter to that is that teams commonly bank on the potential of a player instead of looking at how they produced, ignoring the possibility that time will magnify their shortcomings as well.

In a way there are two drafts within any draft: the upside picks and the producers. The potential vs. the guys who already know how to play the game. Much of the rest of the lotto is in the first category. Upside guys with obvious flaws but too much potential to ignore. are some who show both: Wemby for instance. He will be able to do much of what he already does at the next level, and still hasn't scratched the surface on what he could do. Health is the only questionmark.

In this draft a few fit that category: Players who will not have to fundamentally change the way they play in order to do what they do at a high level. I think Amen and Scoot can play on quicks alone, as John Wall did. They do need re-tooled jumpers to reach their best potential. The fact that they will succeed in some ways without it may make it more difficult to add that to their game. In those hypertalents what I look for is the guys who seem to love to compete. Who show up in every play. High energy types. These are guys who enjoy hitting a gym in the offseason, where new skills are able to be developed and grooved. The Thompson twins give off that energy, likewise Scoot. None of them have yet hit the wall of scouting and gotten pissed off enough to add to their games. When they aren't dominant, how do they react?

A front office like Memphis drafts the opposite way. Ja was an outlier supertalent, and they had the high pick, otherwise it seems they draft guys who show steady production. Battle tested guys who have an obvious role at the next level and will earn their contracts early.

So if I am looking for upside, what I look for is the combination of high energy + underdeveloped talent. If there is any track record: have they improved?

If I am looking for production, I ask: at the next level can the kid do the thing they are being drafted for? Do they have a role that they can play early in their career, so they will earn the critical PT necessary to earn a 2nd contract.

I like a number of the Production guys in this draft:

Taylor Hendricks: switchable high energy stretch Big.
Brandon Miller: Smooth tall outside shooting sniper.
Gradey Dick: Tall scorer with range.
Jordan Hawkins: catch and shoot motion scorer
Brandon Podziemski: back up playmaker with range, potential starting PG.
Brice Sensabaugh: 6th man instant offense.
Kris Murray: steady role-player
Trayce Jackson Davis: dirty work interior player.
Zach Edey: huge centerpiece drop big, useful against opposing superbig teams.
Adama Sanogo: Solid solid low post Big, who has shown stretch range. Efficient scoring despite incredibly high usage. Reliable back up 5.
Oscar Tshiebwe: he can rebound. Don't expect him to do anything else, but does that at a superior level.
Isaiah Wong: g-league caliber maybe but he will up the competition level of his team. More if he can add more playmaking.


Of the Upside guys with high energy potentially available at 8 or below, I'm intrigued by:

Jarace Walker. Disruptive defense will earn him minutes late in games. Lob threat and end to end rim running means he has a role as well. Will keep working on that outside shot, he's not scared to take it if its open.
Ausar. Has played as a top level role player. Defense is a strength that will carry him until his outside shot is completely rebuilt.
Leonard Miller. He did exactly what he was supposed to do when his combine showing demonstrated he wasn't ready. He got better, in a league/on a team that paradoxically doesn't seem to be all that great at developing players. Awkward body but he gives maximum effort.
Okay, Anthony Black. Tough to deny that he clearly loves the game. Loves contact. Attacks the basket. Big for his position, if you think he's a Point. Active on defense. Not a big fan of his Ast/TO ratio if you are expecting him to be a giant PG. But I do think he will work hard to improve. Young enough that he will develop. Will he get PT? Yes, because he will be drafted high.
Kobe Bufkin. I missed him til Dat mentioned him. He hits all of the stats I look for that show BBIQ. Developed as the season went. Adding playmaking, rebounding, defense. He needs to add an outside shot, but shoots well from the line.
Bilal Coulibaly. played well at a pro level despite youth and the spillover of a bright spotlight.
DaRon Holmes: high energy rim runner. Beast at getting from end to end quicker than anyone. Takes the ball from the board, then outsprints everyone to get the pass at the other end.

That's my 20. Aside from those at the top who will not be available to us.

And I'm leaving a blank spot for Cam Whitmore, who maybe showed hesitancy because he was on a team heavy with senior players? The primary hole in his game for me is his passivity, which runs counter to the guys I usually like. But, among the 5 youngest players in the draft. Plenty of room to grow.

I'm worried about Edey and Tshiebwe at the NBA level. Neither can run the floor. Tshiebwe in particular I think would be a defensive liability. He didn't block shots in college at a particularly high rate. He'd be a top rebounder in the NBA as soon as he stepped on the floor, but you have to be able to do more than that. Edey did block shots at a good clip, but he is very slow. Little to no midrange game. Best case scenario he turns into a Boban-like player.

[doclinkin]

I'm worried about Edey and Tshiebwe at the NBA level. Neither can run the floor. Tshiebwe in particular I think would be a defensive liability. He didn't block shots in college at a particularly high rate. He'd be a top rebounder in the NBA as soon as he stepped on the floor, but you have to be able to do more than that. Edey did block shots at a good clip, but he is very slow. Little to no midrange game. Best case scenario he turns into a Boban-like player.

I submit you're wrong on Edey. He looks slow due to his size, but covers a ton of ground remarkably well for all that mass.

Consider the lane agility and 3/4 court sprint measures of various productive Bigs.
Sorted by lane agility. Slowest to fastest.

Rudy Gobert.
Lane: 12.85
Sprint: 3.57

JaVale.
Lane: 12.85
Sprint: 3.25

Brook Lopez.
Lane agility: 12.77
3/4 sprint: 3.57

DeAndre Jordan.
Lane agility: 12.3
3/4 sprint: 3.27

Nikola Vucevic.
Lane: 12.02
Sprint: 3.27

Mo Wagner:
Lane: 12.00
3/4: 3.35

Stephen Adams.
Lane: 11.85
Sprint: 3.40

Hassan Whiteside.
Lane 11.83
Sprint 3.54

Jarret Allen.
Lane: 11.82
3/4 sprint: 3.21

Xavier Tillman.
Lane agility: 11.8
3/4 sprint: 3.49

Julius Randle.
Lane: 11.45
Sprint: 3.27

Thomas Bryant.
Lane: 11.42
3/4 sprint: 3.37

Zach Edey.
Lane Agility: 11.37
3/4 sprint: 3.45

Dwight Powell.
Lane Agility: 11.28
3/4 sprint: 3.20

Edey looks slow, but his mobility at his size is startling. Years of playing hockey have given him 'float' in his lateral movement, and surprisingly loose hips. Yes end-to-end running for a center is important, you want to get set up under the basket to establish your defense or on offense to get ahead. But few centers can beat the guards up court anyway, you need your transition defenders to stall them a second.

In the half court however, and in the post season when play slows down, it is more important to have a Big who can keep one step out of the paint but slide to adjust when his man gets beat. That 3-second-call polka matters more than having a track athlete at center.

Now consider the top 8 standing reaches measured in NBA draft history:

JaVale: 9.65"
Rudy Gobert, Boban: 9'7"
Zach Edey, Bol Bol, Mo bamba: 9' 7.5"
Mark WIlliams 9' 9"
Tacko Fall: 10' 2"

(Before these, there's a pack of Walker Kessler types with a reach of 9'5". Many good defenders among them).

Edey has the 2nd largest wingspan in NBA history at 7'10.5".

In Edey you have a guy with the reach of Rudy Gobert, but the lateral shift of a forward. There is a reason he fouls at such a stingy rate. He can recover if beat, and still reach over your head to alter your shot. He is a mobile missile shield.

Edey is definitely one of those 'don't overthink it' players. You have an incredibly dominant player in college, with outlier size. He will not be smaller at the NBA level, will still be able to block shots, rebound, score efficiently. And the athletic numbers suggest he is an outlier in agility as well, given his size.

My prediction: he will be the best drop big in the game the instant he enters the league. A potential game-changer in being one of the rare playable interior bigs. Post all the small ball 5's you want, if you can't dunk or score lay-ups, your outside shooting center better hit them all.

If he is available at 59? snatch him. Me I'd take him at 42. I just think he will already be gone by then, I don't think I'm the only one who sees it.

Check him out not running the floor:

Watch on YouTube

[TGW]

I was wondering why no one mentioned Edey in this thread. I didn’t want to say anything because I don’t know crap about college prospects and only start to do a little research around this time of year for obvious reasons.

[doclinkin]

It's been me and Swami all alone on this one.

doc -- what's your take on Armando Bacot as a R2 pick? Think Richaun Holmes plus. His junior numbers were some of the best I've ever seen.

He's also very articulate, obviously a smart kid. Can talk the game, & can talk other stuff too. Yet, nbadraftroom has him at #76 -- that makes zero sense to me.

That said, if I'm looking at a traditional low-post Big, might as well go with the Biggest. Zach Edey has impressed me with his mobility and smooth athleticism at 7'4". And his development is promising. He simply does not give away stupid fouls any more, which is tough to do when you are the biggest human being in the room, and when you are blocking damn near everything. Footwork and fundamentals are solid as concrete. He has the advanced balance from being a hockey player growing up, hand-eye coordination from his first love, baseball. His turnovers are decreasing even with increased usage. It's absurd to me that the most dominant player in college basketball is mocked in the late 2nd round. Walker Kessler was a steal last year, Zach Edey would be similar larceny.

Watch on YouTube

There's still room for true Bigs at the next level.

Watch on YouTube

Edey. My man Zach. Look, the best defenders in soccer are not necessarily the fastest footed guys, but players who know the angles and play the spaces between players, anticipate the play. Likewise for Hockey though everything moves even faster there. Zach Edey is huge, nimble, determined AND I think we are seeing the league tip a little bit back towards Big Bigs. Embiid. Jokic. The Unibrow/LeBJ front line. Giannis and Brook. Yes those are all shooters with outside skill, however the new rules emphasis has made it harder for players to force cheap fouls, easier to defend tight on the outside. This gives drop bigs a little more time to react, which works well for those who defend by anticipating the play. Zach defends without fouling, affects plays just by being on the court, he cuts off angles by being half the angles by himself. And when he is beat he still reaches out and pats the ball out of the air. Also I believe we will see a premium being paid for interior scoring now that combo guards will have a harder time. Tall passers and even taller finishers will be part of the next arms race. Especially if they both rebound and anchor the interior defense.

I'd support taking Edey with our first pick. He's that good.

I'd support taking Edey with our first pick. He's that good.

I think he has a chance to be more impactful on his first contract than Wemby. Maybe overall, depending on health. He's got a quietness to his competence/competitive aspect that keeps him overlooked. I think the league is swinging back towards the Bigs though, and if you have a lynchpin center that is playable in a switchy scheme, you have an edge on the competition. Edey looks like he will be a solid pro on a winning team. Solid being a key word. The Porzingis/ Chet/ Poku/ Bol Bol body type is vulnerable in dings and tweaks from playing in traffic. Chet won't be easy to bump or dislodge off his center. He is regularly hacked and beaten on in NCAA play, and remains unmoved. As a mid-late lotto pick he will prove his value. If he falls past that he will be a steal. Yes I'd have no problem taking Zach with our pick.

I think he's de-valued by scouts b/c there's a stigma around "slow-footed" behemoth-types, because their skill-set is not suited to the "modern-NBA," which is generally true; but the thing is: Edey isn't slow-footed at all, and his body is well-proportioned (whatever that even means. In short: He moves like a guard.) Also - he wastes not a step, nor a second holding the ball. He rarely dribbles, and when he does, it's mostly to gather himself before making a move - it ain't highlight-reel stuff, it's efficiency.

[doclinkin]

Jesus, though. Watching his pro day shootaround: that is a smooth clean and repeatable shot from the midrange out to the corner 3. The arc on that shot is a perfect rainbow. Really pretty high arc, unlike many superbigs who have a flat shot. Shaq style.

Watch on YouTube

I think I'm back with Swami saying I wouldn't hate him at 8, either. He is going to be damn good.

[doclinkin]

Whereas my man Dat has it like this.

This is a bad take. Edey isn't a reach, he's BPA after We Bananas and Scoot. The scouts and armchair twitter draft gurus are wrong and i am right, as usual. Doc is right, too.

He’s projected late 2nd, how would he not be a reach at the wizards 1st round pick?

Each year, there are a handful of Cs that can dunk the ball and rebound and block a few shots. Last year you had Duren, Mark Williams, Walker Kessler, Koloko.

Right. Maybe 10-15 years ago Edey would have been a late lottery choice and been a respectable pick but its too easy to play guys like that off the floor unless they are truly a dynamic offensive talent.

Yall can say he's light on his feet all yall want but he's still 7-4 285 and isn't mobile or changing directions quickly.

we will see.

[payitforward]

Doc's got me convinced. If Edey is there at 42, take him.

[DCZards]

That’s some eye-opening stuff on Edey, doc

[doclinkin]

Then there's mindset:

Watch on YouTube

But I think the reason he is not in many mocks is the scuttlebutt that he may return to school. He won't lose out on money if he does so, and seems motivated to progress. To me he'd be the best player to stay 4 years since Tim Duncan.

Read on Twitter

There will be money for him at the pro level too though. As a kid proud of his Chinese ethnicity, he is going to make a truck load of $$$ for himself and whatever team he plays for. Imagine if we did have him here in Chinatown.

Good article here on his mindset and how he plays pissed:

Spoiler:

Back at practice, he turns his gaze to the court, entering a state of stillness. He looks calm, stoic, borderline detached, even. He doesn’t hear anything. He tunes out in games this way, too; he doesn’t hear the crowd, the refs, the music. Pure silence.

Internally, though, he’s the exact opposite. He’s burning; on the cusp of combustion. He doesn’t think; he only sees red. Only turns his attention toward dominating his next opponent. “I usually try to get myself angry,” Edey says. “I’ll just find some reason.”

He mostly thinks of how he’s perceived: He’s succeeding only because he’s tall. He’s scoring only because he’s big. He thinks of how little he was recruited out of IMG Academy, back when he was ranked no. 436 in his high school class, per 247Sports. He thinks of how many suggested he redshirt his first year at Purdue; they predicted he would never find his way.

**** YOU. YOU’RE WRONG. I’LL SHOW YOU.

Edey might literally be the biggest target in all of college hoops, and he receives an extraordinary amount of vitriol from opposing fan bases each game. He leans into it, though, using it as fuel during practice and games. His lock screen features lyrics from the Game and 50 Cent’s “Hate It or Love It.” He often thinks of how even the compliments he receives feel somewhat conditional. “I guess he’s athletic, for a 7-footer.” More red, more ammunition. More f-bombs.

I’LL SHOW YOU AGAIN. I’LL KEEP SHOWING YOU HOW WRONG YOU ARE.

His anger, though, is controlled. He doesn’t get emotional or step out of his team’s offense. He’s averaging only 1.7 fouls per game, a career low. He’s always been able to harness his fire to his advantage. And the competitive drive he has had since he was a child, back when he got irked when his hockey teammates didn’t touch the line during sprints, explodes into something beautiful. Unstoppable. He’s averaging 22.3 points and 12.8 rebounds on 61 percent shooting from the field.

“I play better when I’m pissed off,” Edey says.

In that practice last month, he has more than enough reason to be irritated. Purdue had dropped three games over a four-game stretch, losing its no. 1 overall ranking. One of Edey’s teammates, 7-foot-2 center Will Berg, would feel the brunt of Edey’s frustration. In one practice sequence, Edey seals Berg off, spins, and dunks with two hands. The rim shakes. Berg battles back, digging into Edey’s back and fouling him left and right.

Now Edey is really pissed off. “Stop **** holding me,” he says.

Purdue coach Matt Painter and assistant coach Brandon Brantley break into wide smiles. This is their favorite version of Edey. And they often stoke the fire, especially Brantley. He’ll send Edey tweets or articles that leave him off lists of the country’s top big men. He’ll tell him that whichever center they’re facing next has sent him a box of chocolates or flowers. He’ll tell him that so-and-so really is the best center in the country; Edey’s not even close. Edey always responds with one word, “Interesting,” storing away the information for future use.

“He’s not Zach Edey without that chip,” Brantley says.

Sure enough, Edey closes the practice scrimmage by pushing Berg back, drop-stepping, and throwing down another thunderous dunk. Afterward, as Edey swishes eight straight free throws on a side court, guard David Jenkins Jr. comes up to him: “Z! You was on one today!”

Edey smiles: “Always.”

[joshuacf]

I'm worried about Edey and Tshiebwe at the NBA level. Neither can run the floor. Tshiebwe in particular I think would be a defensive liability. He didn't block shots in college at a particularly high rate. He'd be a top rebounder in the NBA as soon as he stepped on the floor, but you have to be able to do more than that. Edey did block shots at a good clip, but he is very slow. Little to no midrange game. Best case scenario he turns into a Boban-like player.

I submit you're wrong on Edey. He looks slow due to his size, but covers a ton of ground remarkably well for all that mass.

Consider the lane agility and 3/4 court sprint measures of various productive Bigs.
Sorted by lane agility. Slowest to fastest.

Watch on YouTube

His 3/4th sprint was 4th from last at this year's combine (and dead last among Centers).

His vertical leap was 5th from last of all players at the combine (dead last among centers). His standing vertical leap was 2nd from last from all players at the combine (dead last among centers)

He had a decent lane agility time. He may be faster than I gave him credit for, but he is by no means a good athlete.

The college dominance doesn't move me. Luka Garza was dominant in college. Kofi Cockburn was dominant in college. I'm looking for NBA transferable skills, of which he has some. That's why I gave him the Boban comp.

In 99 college games, Edey did not attempt one three-pointer. The chances of him becoming a serviceable shooter are slim.

When I look at Edey, I see a player who doesn't have the skills (not even the rough skills) of an NBA "skill center", nor does he have anywhere near the athleticism of a Robert Williams, Mitchell Robinson, "athletic center".

Compare Edey to someone like Da'Ron Holmes, who had a 3.20 Three Quarter Sprint (10th fastest among all players, fastest among centers) and a 35-inch vertical. This is someone who is going to run the floor, catch lobs, and cut to the basket and catch-and-finish around the rim (Edey can catch and finish also). He's a great shot blocker as well. Holmes is also about a year younger than Edey.

Watch on YouTube

[joshuacf]

Taking Edey at 8 (or Holmes for that matter) would be completely nuts. Like a fireable offense. In my opinion.

[doclinkin]

Luka Garza is slept on. He's hidden behind established players KAT and Gobert, but per 36 he is putting up 27/9r/3a with a .652 True Shooting %. .359 from 3. Limited minutes behind 2 all-stars, but it does look like he can play in this league. 19 & 9 against Jokic. 25 against Utah and Walker Kessler. His lane agility was 11.9 seconds. Slower than Edey.

I like DaRon Holmes, you pointed out his primary NBA skill: he is a run/jump athlete who goes end to end faster than most guards. There is a role for that. If you can feed him before the defense converges.

Now, with this superior athlete, consider that his lane agility time of 11.48 was slower than the behemoth Zach Edey's 11.37. The guy with the 2nd largest wingspan ever is quicker side to side and in space than your hyper athlete. The guy with hand size that would measure in the top 15 of NBA players ever (equal to Elgin Baylor) is faster going backwards than your sprinter example. Question, on defense, do you run at the basket, or face away from it?

Follow-up Question. How much more time is spent in transition than in half-court? Or vice versa. Which is the skill more commonly used for a center? Running out on the break to catch a lob? Or shifting side to side to guard the paint.

Your guy Holmes took a grand total of 7 three-pointers in his college career. Shot 66% from the FT line.
I don't even see that one shot you claim Edey took, but he did shoot 74% from the line.
Scouts say FT% is a better gauge of eventual NBA 3pt shooting accuracy over time.

You're talking about a great shot blocker in Holmes who swatted 1.9 per game, to Edey's 2.7. Which is better again? You're talking about a guy who can jump high to block shots. We have a guy like that in Daniel Gafford, who can jump like nobody's business. Problem is he racks fouls because he DOES jump to block shots, and can be pumpfaked with a flinch. Edey has learned he doesn't need to leave his feet to change the course of the ball. Just stay tall. Like top 3 ever highest reach kind of tall. He dropped from 9.4 fouls per 100 possessions, to 3.2 by jr year. Holmes started at 3.3 PF/100 and has climbed to 3.8. Comparable, but Zach is better, and shows serious progress in the better direction. Sure his max jump is short. He doesn't have to jump. Did you see the video above? His reach is 2.5" short of the rim. He can dunk on tiptoe. Why jump?

I'm saying Edey is not like the other slow bigs you have seen before. Boban cannot defend in space. Edey does. Hold on to your prejudice if you want, but note that surprise when you had to admit that yeah he can move a little bit better than you thought. And realize this guy would be among the biggest players ever to play the game. And is still exactly that agile.

Taking Edey at 8 (or Holmes for that matter) would be completely nuts. Like a fireable offense. In my opinion.

Of course! If you can get him lower down. I am saying I will not be surprised if he proves to be one of the top 10 best players in the draft. And if he stays in the draft I think he won't be there for our first 2nd round pick.

[doclinkin]

But okay. I'm done. We will see. I bet it's moot. Maybe his agent doesn't get a promise and he buys a massive insurance policy then returns to school for the NIL money and endorsements that flood in from China. No need to jump too soon in this case either. He already made close to $1m in NIL money this year. And seems like he's enjoying himself immensely.

Personally I like the NIL era.

[gambitx777]

I've been saying this I like this kid form NDSU Grant Nelson. 6-11 good size. Strong, good speed. Can shoot, block shots and play defense. He's one of those guys who's not special at anything but he can do everything well enough.

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