2025 Draft Thread - Part 3

[AFM]

The only guy I really don’t want at 6 is Kon.
And I hope we don’t trade Bilal.

Anything else I’m more or less okay with.

I'm starting to sour a bit on Tre Johnson. If NatP4 is right in that his defense is hopeless, how exactly is he any better than Jordan Poole? If we do draft him, I hope it's because our scouts are confident that his defensive issues can be coached away.

I hadn’t seen anything as dire as how Nat put it lol. Of course he may be right, I’m no expert. If anything his measurements came in as hopeful for him developing into a decent defender.

[DCZards]

I’m with Dat. Johnson has the physical tools to be a good defender. I don’t know about his effort on that end of the court but I have no reason to believe he can’t be at least a “neutral defender” as Dat calls it.

[Dat2U]

The only guy I really don’t want at 6 is Kon.
And I hope we don’t trade Bilal.

Anything else I’m more or less okay with.

I would lose my sh*t if we drafted Kon at 6 with Corey Kispert already as clear evidence that this archetype is extremely mid. I think he's better than Corey at some of the ancillary aspects which should make a better connective piece but defensively he's going to have a lot of the same problems - he's a day one defensive target - too small for the 3 and too slow for the 2.

[TGW]

I don't get the angst about Tre Johnson's defense and I certainly would not make that a reason not to draft him.

For a Queen, a guy that might have to play C, the questions revolve around the ability to defend and the motor. And its a huge question because the C has an outsized impact on the game defensively - good and bad.

On the other hand, most elite guards are not good defenders. SGA is an exception to the rule but not the standard.

Most teams are happy if their shot creating guards are neutral defenders. Of course, the less role you have on offense, the better your defense needs to be to find a role.

For wings/guards, defense is about effort & whatever system the team is running. Jalen Williams was a non-descript defender in the WCC and questions were raised about how he would hold up defensively - now he's one of the best wing defenders in the league.

So as long as a guard/wing has the ability to defend and is not someone the defense constantly targets due to size/strength mismatches, I would not be concerned about what they did defensively in college.

Defense is the easiest skill to add as a non-C if you have the physical ability to man the position.

I really don't think Queen and Johnson are comparable defensively. Queen made himself useful on defense, even though he's not a good defensive center in the traditional sense. Excellent steals numbers for a center (much better than Johnson, who is a guard). Respectable block numbers. Solid DRTG on par with Maluach. Solid defensive rebounder. All in all...he gives effort and he's not clueless. Queen at least can become a good positional defensive center even if he isn't blocking a ton of shots because he has high basketball IQ. Johnson OTOH is clueless defensively. He looks lost. He's years away from being able to defend the position at even an average level.

[AFM]

The only guy I really don’t want at 6 is Kon.
And I hope we don’t trade Bilal.

Anything else I’m more or less okay with.

I would lose my sh*t if we drafted Kon at 6 with Corey Kispert already as clear evidence that this archetype is extremely mid. I think he's better than Corey at some of the ancillary aspects which should make a better connective piece but defensively he's going to have a lot of the same problems - he's a day one defensive target - too small for the 3 and too slow for the 2.

Well someone is going to take him top 8. I just hope it isn’t us.

Dude has zero engine potential.

[NatP4]

I’m with Dat. Johnson has the physical tools to be a good defender. I don’t know about his effort on that end of the court but I have no reason to believe he can’t be at least a “neutral defender” as Dat calls it.

Defensive film starts at 2:20:26:

Watch on YouTube

[closg00]

I don’t think the Fears stuff is anything but smoke

My guess is:

1. Bailey
2. Trade down with NOP or BKN.
3. Trade up with Philly for Edgecombe

I don't think so, bruh. A lot of talking heads are saying Fears is high on their board. Plus the workout thing. Personally, he's not who I would pick but I think they like his age and his ability to get into the lane, something they severely lack from the guard position. Again, not my pick, but I do believe they have him ranked highly.

edit: I would not be mad if the Essengue thing was true.

Agree, no need to conduct a secret workout of Fears to generate smoke, the Wizards are genuinely interested in him, if they can trade up and be assured of getting VJ or Ace instead, they probably would. I believe they just want to be assured of not having Utah nab who they want right ahead of them..which of-course would be #sowizards.

[Dat2U]

Again... how the hell do people have Ace over this guy. His floor is a bigger/more athletic Jordan Poole, with a very clear path to being a Booker/Beal caliber guard. You take Booker over MPJ/Rashard Lewis every day and twice on Sunday.
If his athleticism/physicality take another leap... you are looking at Ray Allen.
How the Sixers pass over him is beyond me

Ace is an impact player on D and on the boards. Tre is neither.

Ace can have a foot in the paint as a rim protector, then fly out to block a 3 after a swing pass. Not many guys can do that. He is also a big lob threat which Tre isn't.

Tre is further along in development than Ace for sure and should be better early on. But if Ace improves the way i saw him during the season i think he ends up the better player overall in a few years.

To be clear i would be happy with either guy. If both guys are available at 6 i would choose ace but it wouldnt be a no brainer or anything.

Tre is my guy due to feel/instincts. Its a pretty wide gap and while it may close some, I don't ever expect Ace to be a high feel player.

[Dat2U]

I’m with Dat. Johnson has the physical tools to be a good defender. I don’t know about his effort on that end of the court but I have no reason to believe he can’t be at least a “neutral defender” as Dat calls it.

Defensive film starts at 2:20:26:

Watch on YouTube

You should go back and watch film of Blake Griffin in college. Dude was less active than a folding chair on defense because he had to stay on the floor.

Not saying its ok for guys to mail it in on defense, but its a real simple conversation you have with a guy during the interview process.

I worry about defense more when it involves a C or a guy who simply may not have the ability to defend due to physical tools so he becomes a target for opposing coaches.

[Dat2U]

I don't get the angst about Tre Johnson's defense and I certainly would not make that a reason not to draft him.

For a Queen, a guy that might have to play C, the questions revolve around the ability to defend and the motor. And its a huge question because the C has an outsized impact on the game defensively - good and bad.

On the other hand, most elite guards are not good defenders. SGA is an exception to the rule but not the standard.

Most teams are happy if their shot creating guards are neutral defenders. Of course, the less role you have on offense, the better your defense needs to be to find a role.

For wings/guards, defense is about effort & whatever system the team is running. Jalen Williams was a non-descript defender in the WCC and questions were raised about how he would hold up defensively - now he's one of the best wing defenders in the league.

So as long as a guard/wing has the ability to defend and is not someone the defense constantly targets due to size/strength mismatches, I would not be concerned about what they did defensively in college.

Defense is the easiest skill to add as a non-C if you have the physical ability to man the position.

I really don't think Queen and Johnson are comparable defensively. Queen made himself useful on defense, even though he's not a good defensive center in the traditional sense. Excellent steals numbers for a center (much better than Johnson, who is a guard). Respectable block numbers. Solid DRTG on par with Maluach. Solid defensive rebounder. All in all...he gives effort and he's not clueless. Queen at least can become a good positional defensive center even if he isn't blocking a ton of shots because he has high basketball IQ. Johnson OTOH is clueless defensively. He looks lost. He's years away from being able to defend the position at even an average level.

You make defense sound like its adding a skill from scratch like shooting which can take years to develop. We are simply talking about effort & focus ... all teachable to a guy who apparently by all accounts is a notoriously hard worker and willing to learn.

And defense is a bigger question for Queen due to what position he plays and his foot speed.

[nate33]

I don't even understand why the Wizards would try and have a "secret" private workout with Fears. Fears has always been in the mix in the 5-12 range, so it's not like the Wizards working him out was going to tip anyone off that Fears was an underrated sleeper that nobody was paying attention to.

How does having that workout be publicized harm the Wizards in any way? If anything, the more guys they publicly workout, the harder it is for opposing GM's to divine exactly which guy the Wizards actually like.

I suppose maybe Fears' camp wanted to keep the workout secret, maybe to project an aura that Fears is actually a top 5 talent and didn't want to be seen "slumming" down at the #6 level. But that's about the only argument I can think of to make that workout secret.

[NatP4]

You should go back and watch film of Blake Griffin in college. Dude was less active than a folding chair on defense because he had to stay on the floor.

Not saying its ok for guys to mail it in on defense, but its a real simple conversation you have with a guy during the interview process.

I worry about defense more when it involves a C or a guy who simply may not have the ability to defend due to physical tools so he becomes a target for opposing coaches.

How many of these guys improve enough to become passable defensively in the NBA?

Bottom 10% defenders in the league: Sensabaugh, Nick Smith Jr, Dalton Knecht, Jordan Hawkins, Cam Thomas, Cody Williams, Collin Sexton, Scoot Henderson, Jaden Ivey, Coby White, Jett Howard, Keyonte George, Hood-Schifino, Keldon Johnson, Kobe Bufkin.

I’ll give you Garland, Trae Young, and Brunson who probably also fall in that category. Guys that didn’t improve, but became impact players anyways.

[AFM]

The only guy I really don’t want at 6 is Kon.
And I hope we don’t trade Bilal.

Anything else I’m more or less okay with.

I'm starting to sour a bit on Tre Johnson. If NatP4 is right in that his defense is hopeless, how exactly is he any better than Jordan Poole? If we do draft him, I hope it's because our scouts are confident that his defensive issues can be coached away.

It’s worth noting Johnson is 2” taller and has a 3” longer wingspan than Poole.

Whether he becomes an adequate defender or not will depend on whether he buys into it. Nothing about him screams entitled or lazy. I expect Dawkins and Co. to do their due diligence.

[tontoz]

It is very unlikely that we have to choose between Tre and Ace unless we trade up. If we stay at 6 we'd be lucky if one of them falls to us.

[pcbothwel]

I’m with Dat. Johnson has the physical tools to be a good defender. I don’t know about his effort on that end of the court but I have no reason to believe he can’t be at least a “neutral defender” as Dat calls it.

Defensive film starts at 2:20:26:

Watch on YouTube

Can we please acknowledge the amount of energy Tre was putting out.
Tre was the primary offensive creator with a usage of 29% on 35 MPG, while playing in EVERY game. That is simply unheard of for guys his age.

Reed Sheppard, Bub, Castle all played 10-25% less minutes on a usage in the 18-23% range. Hell, Dillingham was terrible defensively and only played 23 MPG.
Tre is an absolute competitor and will be a much better defender as his body fills out and he plays less/lower usage.
Also, Tre has the size that you can put him on the weakest offensive player 1-3

[NatP4]

Can we please acknowledge the amount of energy Tre was putting out.
Tre was the primary offensive creator with a usage of 29% on 35 MPG, while playing in EVERY game. That is simply unheard of for guys his age.

Reed Sheppard, Bub, Castle all played 10-25% less minutes on a usage in the 18-23% range. Hell, Dillingham was terrible defensively and only played 23 MPG.
Tre is an absolute competitor and will be a much better defender as his body fills out and he plays less/lower usage.
Also, Tre has the size that you can put him on the weakest offensive player 1-3

Sure, I’m not acting like I sat there and watched full Texas games all year or that Johnson can’t improve defensively.

I’m just commenting on his defensive film from the year, which is about as bad as I have seen and explains the awful rebound/steal/block numbers.

[doclinkin]

I don’t think the Fears stuff is anything but smoke

My guess is:

1. Bailey
2. Trade down with NOP or BKN.
3. Trade up with Philly for Edgecombe

I don't think so, bruh. A lot of talking heads are saying Fears is high on their board. Plus the workout thing. Personally, he's not who I would pick but I think they like his age and his ability to get into the lane, something they severely lack from the guard position. Again, not my pick, but I do believe they have him ranked highly.

edit: I would not be mad if the Essengue thing was true.

The fact that a lot of talking heads know about a secret workout suggests they don’t mind that info being out there.

Whereas we have heard next to nothing about the purported workout that they had with multiple bigs. Except that we know they have worked out both Maluach and Queen. At Georgetown. And other reports from various scouts say Malusch has been impressive in workouts.

I think Fears is a smokescreen for Maluach. They don’t want a particular team to dump a mess of assets to trade up with Utah.

We also hear murmurs of interest in Khaman from San Antonio. I expect someone is thinking about a big deal to jump to #2. If the Wiz can offer Maluach and cap relief maybe they can get in on a multi team deal that shuffles some stars and picks around. KD to the Spurs. Return our pick swaps so PHX can tank. Ship picks and get Harper. Something. Otherwise I get the sense that the Watch is the actual target.

[tontoz]

I watched plenty of Tre's games and yeah, he was pretty lazy on D and on the boards. I would expect that to improve in the NBA.

But Ace is a high motor guy. That is just part of his DNA. I wouldn't say his motor runs as hot as Westbrook but it's up there and that is a trait I value.

[AFM]

Bailey’s agent is really doing him a disservice. The entire point of an agent is that you have someone older and wiser and more polished representing these kids. Now people are doubting this kid’s character and it may not even be his own doing.

[Dat2U]

You should go back and watch film of Blake Griffin in college. Dude was less active than a folding chair on defense because he had to stay on the floor.

Not saying its ok for guys to mail it in on defense, but its a real simple conversation you have with a guy during the interview process.

I worry about defense more when it involves a C or a guy who simply may not have the ability to defend due to physical tools so he becomes a target for opposing coaches.

How many of these guys improve enough to become passable defensively in the NBA?

Bottom 10% defenders in the league: Sensabaugh, Nick Smith Jr, Dalton Knecht, Jordan Hawkins, Cam Thomas, Cody Williams, Collin Sexton, Scoot Henderson, Jaden Ivey, Coby White, Jett Howard, Keyonte George, Hood-Schifino, Keldon Johnson, Kobe Bufkin.

I’ll give you Garland, Trae Young, and Brunson who probably also fall in that category. Guys that didn’t improve, but became impact players anyways.

This is just a random list of names but I'll play along.

Sensabaugh - slow afoot
Nick Smith Jr - small & frail
Dalton Knecht - slow afoot
Jordan Hawkins - frail, slow afoot
Cam Thomas - doesn't try, never tried ... seems naturally stubborn but still a good player.
Cody Williams - he's 20 & frail - I'm not sure why he's included in this list, he was drafted in part, for his defensive potential
Collin Sexton - small
Scoot Henderson - small-ish and only 21
Jaden Ivey - I thought he was improving on defense prior to injury. Not a massive negative anymore. I don't think he's close to bottom 10% although still maybe below average.
Coby White - small
Jett Howard - frail & slow afoot
Keyonte George - yeah he just stinks
Jalen Hood-Schifino - not sure why he's brought up but he was never any good at any aspect of the game, even in college
Keldon Johnson - not sure why he's here ... his defense has actually fell off after showing initial promise
Kobe Bufkin - small & frail

You know what this tells me, in most instances, physical attributes matter. Most of these guys are here because they aren't capable of defending at a high level. Cam, Keyonte & Keldon are the only ones where it seems more than just physical ability.