Wiz trade 5th pick to Minnesota

[montestewart]

Yeah, there was a little disconnect in that quote; Rubio wasn't expected to slip to #5, yet the reason for trading the pick is tied largely to Rubio's situation.

[nate33]

On the trade: bear in mind that we saved about $3M by not having to pay the draft pick. So salarywise there were some advantages to making the trade rather than drafting the pick. Let's break the trade down into two components. Trade 1 was the #5 pick plus half of Etan's expiring contract for Foye. Trade 2 was Songaila + Pecherov + the other half of Etan's contract for Miller.

Let's take a look at Trade 1. For argument's sake, let's say Foye is extended for 3 years at $5M a year (a reasonable salary given the expected free agency conditions). Now, let's do an apples-to-apples comparison of the cost for Foye versus the cost of a #5 pick for 4 years. Since we essentially got Foye for free this year (because we unloaded Etan), we will end up paying him $15M over 4 years, or $3.75M a year. The #5 pick would have cost about $15.6M over 4 years. Basically, they cost the same amount of money. (We actually saved a bit by making the trade because paying the pick would be equivalent to "frontloading" the salary obligations. And since we're in the luxtax now, that money would have been doubled.)

So looking at Trade 1 alone, would you rather have a seasoned but still young Foye for 4 years, or Flynn/Curry/DeRozan/Hansbrough for 4 years? I think a reasonable argument can be made that Foye will be as effective as those guys. One can fairly argue in favor of the draft picks, but it's not a slam dunk in their favor. If nothing else, I think it's pretty likely that Foye will be better than them in the next year or two, at least.

Now let's look at Trade 2: DSong + Pecherov + half of Etan's contract for Mike Miller. That's clearly a win for us. Even if Miller isn't resigned, we ended up improving the team for one year and dumping DSong's contract a year early.

So overall, in light of the Rubio situation, I think EG's choice is defensible. I didn't like the trade at first because I believed Rubio's value was higher. It appears I was wrong. Minnesota clearly has been unable to reap much value for him and now they're stuck waiting for 2 years (at least).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't think so, on Trade 1, nate. I'd take every one of the four you mentioned for Foye because Foye's a FA and because I think Flynn's already better. DeRozan's a stud. Hansbrough's a 10-yr pro, along the lines of a Juwan Howard, who did make one all star game.

A Foye we've got to resign makes that deal dubious .... unless EG trades Foye (in lieu of resigning him).

The thing that's made me more than okay with EG's thinking is that both Miller and Foye, in addition to having terrific three point range; both are very good passers! This team's going to be real good, offensively. I'll be happy THIS SEASON.

Maybe, with the bad cap situation EG manages a blockbuster trade. (That, or a Jamison for McGrady trade that makes it possible to resign Foye, Miller, and Haywood. It doesn't throw everything into this season's success or failure). Grunfeld did work very hard this summer. He did a lot. I'll be with him at least through the short run.

[Ruzious]

I think EG owes Sacramento, because if they hadn't taken Tyreke Evans, it would have gone down in history as a big mistake to trade the pick that could have been used to pick Evans. Dude has the potential to be a GREAT one. Flynn was really the only player available that I'd have regrets about not picking.

[Severn Hoos]

I think EG owes Sacramento, because if they hadn't taken Tyreke Evans, it would have gone down in history as a big mistake to trade the pick that could have been used to pick Evans. Dude has the potential to be a GREAT one. Flynn was really the only player available that I'd have regrets about not picking.

Yep, this is my thinking also. I wasn't sold on Evans based on his college season, but his workouts really impressed me. Normally, that's a dangerous approach to take, but in this case, I think Evans will be a very good player - and would have been a very good fit next to Arenas. If he was still on the board at #5, it would have made the trade sting a bit more. (And likewise for Harden - I also had my doubts about him, but now think he'll do just fine.)

Of the guys that were there, I have some intrigue for Curry, but not a whole lot, to be honest. I do think Flynn will be good, but just not a great fit with Arenas. And if the strategy in using a top 5 pick is based around your superstar player not returning to form - well, you're pretty much toast anyway, so what's the point?

I think that 3-4 years from now (assuming we re-sign Foye), we'll be at least content that we got him - I don't see anyone on the board that will blow him away in that timeframe. DeRozan is about the only one I see with the potential to make us regret trading the pick, and even that is based on the assumption that he develops a jumpshot and matures into a solid all-around player. You know, the kind of guy who develops on your dime and leaves you with the decision whether to overpay to re-sign him or watch him walk. Nope, no regrets here.

[Dat2U]

The trade will be all about EG resigning Miller, Foye & Haywood next offseason. Failure to sign all three makes look like an incredibly shortsighted move IMO.

Nate as for the cap savings by not having to sign a lottery pick, we've talked about that before. Again, that's a very shortsighted viewpoint b/c a resigned Foye & Miller will cost a helluva lot more over the next few seasons than paying whoever we could have drafted at #5. Lets not forget that -productive players on rookie contracts financially are the best value in the NBA.

This thread needs to be revisted in 10 1/2 months. We'll have all the answers to really make a honest assessment of this deal at that time.

[nate33]

Nate as for the cap savings by not having to sign a lottery pick, we've talked about that before. Again, that's a very shortsighted viewpoint b/c a resigned Foye & Miller will cost a helluva lot more over the next few seasons than paying whoever we could have drafted at #5. Lets not forget that -productive players on rookie contracts financially are the best value in the NBA.

It'll depend on what it costs to resign Foye. As I said earlier, we are basically getting Foye for free this season. If he costs $15-16M for a 3-year extension, then his total cost over 4 years will be equal to the total cost of the #5 draft pick over 4 years.

In most years, I would agree that Foye isn't worth a #5 pick. But in this weak draft, he just might be. As Ruzious said earlier, with Evans off the board, there was no one left at #5 who had serious star potential.

[LyricalRico]

Nate as for the cap savings by not having to sign a lottery pick, we've talked about that before. Again, that's a very shortsighted viewpoint b/c a resigned Foye & Miller will cost a helluva lot more over the next few seasons than paying whoever we could have drafted at #5. Lets not forget that -productive players on rookie contracts financially are the best value in the NBA.

It'll depend on what it costs to resign Foye. As I said earlier, we are basically getting Foye for free this season. If he costs $15-16M for a 3-year extension, then his total cost over 4 years will be equal to the total cost of the #5 draft pick over 4 years.

Great point, nate. And I still think we can re-up Miller for something similar. Letting McGuire walk and selling our 2010 first could be enough to pay for that. McGuire plus a late first for Mike Miller is a pretty good deal IMO. And it shouldn't affect our ability to keep Haywood either.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think EG owes Sacramento, because if they hadn't taken Tyreke Evans, it would have gone down in history as a big mistake to trade the pick that could have been used to pick Evans. Dude has the potential to be a GREAT one. Flynn was really the only player available that I'd have regrets about not picking.

Yep, this is my thinking also. I wasn't sold on Evans based on his college season, but his workouts really impressed me. Normally, that's a dangerous approach to take, but in this case, I think Evans will be a very good player - and would have been a very good fit next to Arenas. If he was still on the board at #5, it would have made the trade sting a bit more. (And likewise for Harden - I also had my doubts about him, but now think he'll do just fine.)

Of the guys that were there, I have some intrigue for Curry, but not a whole lot, to be honest. I do think Flynn will be good, but just not a great fit with Arenas. And if the strategy in using a top 5 pick is based around your superstar player not returning to form - well, you're pretty much toast anyway, so what's the point?

I think that 3-4 years from now (assuming we re-sign Foye), we'll be at least content that we got him - I don't see anyone on the board that will blow him away in that timeframe. DeRozan is about the only one I see with the potential to make us regret trading the pick, and even that is based on the assumption that he develops a jumpshot and matures into a solid all-around player. You know, the kind of guy who develops on your dime and leaves you with the decision whether to overpay to re-sign him or watch him walk. Nope, no regrets here.

Sev and Ruz, count me in agreement on Evans. Nevertheless, Sacto made him a moot point in any EG discussion.

Post draft the guy that really intrigues besides Flynn is Jennings. He's going to be tremendous if Vegas is any indication. I was put off by his EuroLeague numbers but the guy really produced defensively and as a playmaker in SL. He will take time to be good in the NBA... Sev, IMO you are right that these guys only make sense if Gil's not the PG. I was thinking at draft Gil might never be even close to what he was, but that's not what I'm hearing now.

As for "fourth quarter Foye" I know I loved him at Villanova. Very determined guy. Winner on and off the court. He seems like an ideal candidate to blow up under EJ in the same way that Gil and Caron have as Wizards. (Was it just EJ's offense or what? Nah, they're just that good.)

And as for the other trade acquisition in exchange for the 5th pick and filler, I recall loving Mike Miller when he took Florida to the Final Four and also when he was Rookie of the Year.

Ernie got good, offensive, veterans. We'll just have to see how it all works out.

[dennis00]

Imagine if we had the 5th pick, we might've been able to pick Rubio. A short walk to the White House and the buy-out fee would magically disappear.

[yungal07]

Imagine if we had the 5th pick, we might've been able to pick Rubio. A short walk to the White House and the buy-out fee would magically disappear.

Um what?

[DCZards]

Ernie got good, offensive, veterans. We'll just have to see how it all works out.

That's what I like about the trade with Minny---vVeteran firepower in Miller and an experienced, yet up-and-coming talent, in Foye. I agree with those who say that Foye could turn out to be as good or better than any of the players that were on the board at 5.

If the Zards were in a rebuilding mode then maybe you keep the pick and take a chance on a Flynn, Derozan, Curry, etc. But the Wizards stars are all veterans so it would be crazy, imo, not to have a win now mentality. I think EG's got that part right.

As for Evans, I was pushing for him to be the Zards pick early and often. I would have been crushed if he was still there at #5. But I'm sure EG had a pretty good idea that Sac was going to draft Evans before he made the trade. Guys like Curry, Flynn, etc. have "star" talent. Evans has "superstar" talent, imo.

[FreeBalling]

Imagine if we had the 5th pick, we might've been able to pick Rubio. A short walk to the White House and the buy-out fee would magically disappear.

That could happen if Rubio went to Da-Bulls. This kid is like Crabtree in the nfl.

[LyricalRico]

Imagine if we had the 5th pick, we might've been able to pick Rubio. A short walk to the White House and the buy-out fee would magically disappear.

That could happen if Rubio went to Da-Bulls. This kid is like Crabtree in the nfl.

[Tekkenlaw]

I think this trade is going to be a big mistake long term. You guys really overrate Foye, he isn't even going to be as good as Ben Gordon. And this is coming from a HUGE fan of Foye.

I think even if Rubio is a complete bust the trade was still a mistake, Rubio could have been dealt on draft night for more than you got for the 5th pick, no one expected him to drop that far. Or you could have just taken Flynn (Who I think is going to be better than Rubio). Hell even Derozan has the size to actually play shooting guard unlike Foye.

[montestewart]

I think this trade is going to be a big mistake long term. You guys really overrate Foye, he isn't even going to be as good as Ben Gordon. And this is coming from a HUGE fan of Foye.

I think even if Rubio is a complete bust the trade was still a mistake, Rubio could have been dealt on draft night for more than you got for the 5th pick, no one expected him to drop that far. Or you could have just taken Flynn (Who I think is going to be better than Rubio). Hell even Derozan has the size to actually play shooting guard unlike Foye.

Which trade? Oh, that trade.

Maybe I missed it, but I haven't heard anyone say he would be as good as Gordon. But if he isn't as good, why would the Wizards do a stright up Gordon for Foye trade. I mean Rubio for Foye. I mean REDUNDANT/DECLINING/DEADWOOD BIGS AND #5 PICK FOR THE DEPTH AND 3P SHOOTING OF FOYE AND MILLER.

Maybe they should have unloaded James or Stevenson in the trade, or held onto Songaila, or gotten a current or future pick back. Maybe they could have gotten more on draft day (from which team?). Maybe Foye and/or Miller won't pan out and/or won't resign. Maybe we'll all regret the trade.

Regardless, analyzing the trade based on a mixture of maybes, "overrating" of Foye, and exclusion of the other trade elements, doesn't seem like very complete analysis.

[Tekkenlaw]

Ok, you think it was a good trade, I think it was a bad trade. We'll see how it plays out over the next few years I suppose.

I understand the wizards are attempting to contend for a title, and the trade makes sense from that angle, but I don't see the wizards contending for a title with their current core. I would have drafted Flynn to go along with McGee as building blocks for the future. Due to injuries this was your last chance at a high draft pick for a while, you're going to be good enough to stay out of the lottery, but not good enough to contend for a championship. When it's time to rebuild you're going to wish you had Flynn or Rubio on a rookie contract and not Foye and Miller (If they are resigned) making 10+ million a year. That's why I believe it was a mistake long term.

[ZonkertheBrainless]

Every time Ernie has held onto a high draft pick it has been a bust. The last time he traded a high draft pick it worked out well (that's how he got Jamison), although Devin Harris is pretty good.
I think we get to the conference finals this year and then collapse mentally because we're just happy to be there. Next year McGee will be one year older, let's see how it all works out.

[sfam]

Considering Rubio is playing in Spain this year, I can only imagine the outcry had the Wiz picked him and had this happen. We'd all be sick about the "Curse of Les Boulez" posts. Bottom line, at this point I'm satisfied with the trade. I'm optimistic about at least a 45-50 win season and a chance at contending (or at least getting to the second round) if the injury bug breaks in another direction this year.

[Tekkenlaw]

My main point is that Ricky Rubio is worth more than the 5th pick in a weak draft. I think the Wizards could have gotten a better deal if they waited until draft night to trade the pick.