Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[Ruzious]

I think I forgot to follow up on that last UCLA game I saw - nevermind Bazz and Kyle Anderson - Jordan Adams is really good. He needs to lose some baby fat, and isn't super-athletic, but he's got a lot of similarities to Muhammad. He's almost the same size - about an inch shorter with the same physical plusses and minuses (though not as long). I love his super-aggressive style - and he plays defense. Before Bazz became eligible Adams was UCLA's leading scorer. It's hard to score at a good rate with all the shooters on UCLA.

The Ware twins actually remind me of former Bullet Don McLean.

Kyle Anderson - gets a big thumb down from me. Yes, he does things you don't normally see from a guy that size, and he rebounds surprisingly well, but he moves in slow motion, he's out of control, and he hurts his team more than helps. He's like a young smaller Andray Blatche.

If somehow Adams or Oladipo are there for the Wiz 2nd round pick (which I doubt), they are steals - 2 real high energy big physical guards. I don't think I've ever seen a college guard play defense with as much enthusiasm and intensity as Oladipo. Adams is the better offensive player, but Oladipo seems to work well with his limits. Richard Howell is a realistic target - 6'8 255 lber who knows his role and plays it very well. He will grab every important contestable rebound and make you fight through a brick wall to get by him.

[nate33]

The Beal injury could be good for the tank.

Well, Beal playing hurt was good for the tank. He has been terrible ever since the wrist injury. If he actually sits out games and we play other players in his place, we might play better.

[stevemcqueen1]

Shabazz is a crazy player in that I thought he was a driving athletic dunking SF who lacked an outside game. But I was wrong. He's shooting 50% from 3. He pretty much has a complete offensive game. Very impressed. He proved me wrong.

Shabazz is really good. He's Manu or Harden-esque with all of his different scoring tools coming from that left hand.

1.) Good spot up shooter from anywhere on the floor.
2.) has a mid range game off the dribble.
3.) Can get to the rim and has a variety of finishes.
4.) Can post up and shoot a really nice jump hook.

I believe most prospects do not come in with anywhere near his array of scoring skills. He's also got an NBA ready body. If he goes to a team that will feature him and give him minutes early, he could make an impact and be a 20 ppg scorer as a rookie. He's a born scorer with an extremely aggressive go to mentality.

But, the flip side of that is he can stop the ball and be a black hole. If you pass it to him, he's usually going to take a shot. And he's an acceptable rebounder for a college SF, but if he's not scoring and getting a good amount of shots, he can struggle to make an impact. Plus he's a little bit short for the SF position in the NBA. Not too big a deal but there could be some problems matching up with some of the king sized SFs of the league defensively.

I've come around to thinking Nerlens is a better value overall. He's gotten so much better since January started and he was already good before. He can get four shots and still make a gigantic impact on a game. He's a gifted true center, which are so much harder to find than wings. He's a better athlete for his position and has a higher ceiling most likely. He's got a terrific frame and has the potential to be very physically overwhelming with his length and speed and athleticism. And he's got a growing offensive game with some back to the basket moves--solid hands and shooting touch, very quick feet, jump hooks with both hands and a running hook I've seen him hit with his left hand.

And he's actually a pretty skilled passer that can facilitate some offense from the top of the key like Noah and Marc Gasol do. He's unselfish and keeps the ball moving. He's so tall he sees the floor well.

Nerlens is the best Boston area prospect since Pat Ewing and I think there are quite a few similarities between them as freshmen.

Of course Nerlens and Shabazz are probably going to go #1 & #2. I'm thinking we're going to need to get lucky with the ping pong balls to get either and I wouldn't bet anything on us ever getting a lucky break. I don't see Nerlens falling out of the top two at all. Maybe Shabazz could if teams don't like his size or think he's just a scorer. I can't really see Zeller going ahead of Shabazz. McLemore or Len could if either show out down the stretch of the season and have big time tourney performances. I don't think that's going to happen with Len. I think it'll probably go:

1.) Noel
2.) McLemore or Shabazz
3.) McLemore or Shabazz
4.) Zeller
5.) Len

Assuming all declare.

And I think we get to high 20s or low 30s in win total and end up picking around 7th-12th.

[Severn Hoos]

Yay! Let's talk about the white guys! (CCJ says, " 'bout d@mn time!" )

WHat do people think of Jeff Withey. Strikes me as a Brendan Haywood type -- in a good way? Dat? Sev? Ruz? YODA?

Fish, I'm late on the draw, but have been a big Withey fan, although that has to be kept in the context of proper expectations. I do think he will be a Haywood-type player - and remember, Haywood was the 20th pick in his draft, and traded before he made it to training camp. I expect Withey will likely also be a pick in the 20s, and may have a similar impact, though probably not quite as good as Haywood (could have been - still bitter he was so underused for all those years on the Wiz...)

His defensive impact is really quite remarkable. Earlier in the season, his block rate was up around 20%. That meant that he blocked one out of every five opponents' 2-point shots while he was on the court. That's 20% of shots that have no chance of going in - a huge impact to the opponents' efg. (He's back "down" to 15.4%, but is still - believe it or not - ahead of Noel in that stat, as he was ahead of Davis last year.)

He has an offensive game that could be described as "serviceable" (at best), but he's not a self-check. I worry a bit about him being able to hold position on the block in the NBA, but that should come with time. I think he'd be ideal next to Nene (or a younger, reasonable facsimile thereof). I'd be very much in favor of moving up from our 2nd rounder(s) to the 20s to get him if he's still there.

BTW, I have been harping on guys who "break out" as Juniors & Seniors while hardly seeing the court as Freshmen/Sophomores. Certainly, Withey fits that mold. But my point was only that if you draft them in the Lottery and expect them to be stars, you will inevitably be disappointed. But if you want a ready-made role player, the 4-year college kid who improved every year is as sure a thing as you could hope for.

Caught Wally Szczerbiak on radio saying he saw much of himself in McDermott. Glancing at stats I'd forgotten (never knew) Wallyworld was a fairly solid rebounder in college. I did recall he was surprisingly decent scoring in the paint, he'd be somewhat ignored on the interior since he was known as an outside gunner and would come off a screen for a close-in finish. Haven't watched Creighton at all so I can't form a judgement on McDermott. I've been watching his stats since last year but have no sight read on him yet. Wally says he'll succeed at the next level though FWIW.

Great call on WallyWorld, doc - I hadn't thought of that comparison before. I remember him as a PF in college (Miami/OH, right?) and was surprised when he became a SF/SG in the NBA. But he did all right for himself, and still kept some of the things he did well, like rebounding, when he moved to a more perimeter-based role.

I don't have the level of certainty that CCJ has on McDermott, but I do like him and would also be glad to see him on the Wiz. If that 3-point shooting translates to the pros, there's no reason to think he couldn't be at least as effective as a Steve Novak (to extend that previous analog based solely on their shared melanin-deficiency), and possibly could be a WallyWorld type of player. Would make a great balance at SF to Ariza (or, again, a younger facsimile) as a 3-and-board guy to go with a 3-and-D guy.

Honestly, after Noel and Porter (and maybe Shabazz), I don't have a ton of interest right now in the top of the draft. If we can't get one of those guys, a move back to get a combination including Withey and/or McDermott wouldn't be a bad thing, IMO.

[stevemcqueen1]

Isaiah Austin, 21 points and 21 rebounds tonight. Didn't see the performance, but the box score is ridiculous. 12 offensive rebounds. Looking forward to seeing someone make a set of highlights for his game.

[Deivy202]

Noel should be first pick way to talented.

[jivelikenice]

Porter...Another good game - 20 points/ 4 steals/ 2-4 from 3. Perfect fit at the 3.

[Dat2U]

I like Porter. I think he'll be solid, I get a better NBA vibe for him than I did for Jeff Green. Porter looks like a legit 3 and not a 3/4. If were drafting around 6 or 7 he's be a likely favorite.

I was not impressed with Austin the first time I saw him but his numbers tonight were crazy. Will definitely try to check him out some more.

[jivelikenice]

Mid-lotto is where I'd take him. Maybe starting at 6. I'm not sure who I like in the top 3. Zeller is growing on me. We need some skill up front.

[Dr Positivity]

WHat do people think of Jeff Withey. Strikes me as a Brendan Haywood type -- in a good way? Dat? Sev? Ruz? YODA?

I don't like the Haywood comp for him that much, I think Withey is different physically (not as bulky, but a lot more mobility and explosiveness) and I like him more offensively, he's had a midrange shot this year and can finish plays around the rim respectably. It's high praise, but the comparison I kind of like for Withey is... Joakim Noah. Withey's body type and athleticism reminds me a bit of Noah's and both are extremely high IQ defenders and both anchored high powered teams in college. Noah was a great shotblocker in college but wasn't long enough for it to translate to the NBA at an elite level, I think it'll be the same for Withey if DX's estimated 7'1 wingspan for him is correct. (Withey isn't a passer like Noah though obviously)

[stevemcqueen1]

Mid-lotto is where I'd take him. Maybe starting at 6. I'm not sure who I like in the top 3. Zeller is growing on me. We need some skill up front.

There are a lot of good forwards potentially in that mid-late lottery range.

Porter is more of a pure 3 at his weight. McAdoo is a tweener 3/4. Same for Bennett and Poythress. Tony Mitchell is probably a PF. I guess Plumlee is a PF, though I like him least of the group.

I think we could go with almost any one of those guys and get a solid eventual starter.

Top 3 I like Noel for sure and then probably Zeller and Shabazz. But I'm a little wary of Shabazz. He's better than McLemore today, but is he a better fit for us? Will he be better than McLemore in three years? I love that Shabazz will work his ass off to get open and call for the ball all 35 seconds of pretty much every possession. I wish McLemore would do the same. But I definitely don't love his passing. If you pass him the ball you will do so knowing he's probably going to shoot. The other guys at UCLA seem to ignore him while they try and run their plays and move the ball between the four of them. Their PG situation is pretty bad. But I also think it's a sign of how annoyed they get with Shabazz.

It's really hard to build a really successful and cohesive offense with a wing like that. It's certainly not impossible. But things would just be a lot easier if Shabazz was a better passer.

That's why I'm weighing him against McLemore. McLemore is so much more patient and is such a better passer. Yet the flip side is he gets passive and disappears for long stretches, plants himself in a corner and doesn't really move until they call his number. We've already got too many guys who do that as is. Plus his on ball defense is pretty bad.

Plus McLemore is less of a 3 than Shabazz. He's very much more a classic off ball SG and having to go so small with the lineups to get him and Beal on the floor scares me. Not just from a length perspective, but a strength one. Both McLemore and Beal are just a little over 200 pounds. Wall is around that weight too.

I really want to like Len but he scares me. When I think about him just in terms of potential, I'm on board. Then when I see him play, I cool off. Best I can say is he's a very big project. I think he's got a bust factor the other four don't have. Their skills are such that they would have a regular role in pretty much any NBA rotation today. Not so for Len.

[pancakes3]

You shouldn't just be scared of Len. You should outright dismiss him. He hasn't looked dominant since the opener and has been down right pedestrian in conference play.

Mason Plumlee on the other hand will be a very good bench big in the league.

[Ruzious]

Steve, I really enjoy your posts. Shabazz is a very compelling player because of his approach to the game. He has that Kobe-esque belief in himself - that he can take over a game. He also looks 10 years older than the teenager he is. What would Kobe be without that self-confidence? Hard to say. Kobe obviously had the talent to back up the ego. Muhammad is less talented but still talented enough to use the uber confidence for good - which makes him a potential superstar - if he shows he can do more than score. That's why I rate him ahead of McLemore.

[llcc25]

How does C.J. Mccollum compare to Damian Lillard? If similar, I'd like to see if we can get him this upcoming draft...I've always been a Wall fan, but more and more, I'm beginning to accept the fact that he will never develop the consistent mid range jumper and that he will continue to struggle in a half court set. In his 3rd year, Wall still only knows one speed and its becoming frustrating watching him finish.

[rockymac52]

Enough of the hating on Wall's half-court game. He's actually been BETTER in half-court offense so far this season than he is in transition. Seriously. Small sample size, but the numbers don't lie.

[tontoz]

Bazz looks like a B level athlete to me. He reminds me a bit of Michael Redd which is probably his best case scenario.

[AFM]

He looks less athletic in college than he did in HS. Did he get fat or something?

[Rafael122]

He looks less athletic in college than he did in HS. Did he get fat or something?

He missed the first 10 games or so due to the rules violation or whatever. He's gotten himself back into shape recently.

[AFM]

^^ I just thought he was pretty jacked in HS. He doesn't look fat, just not jacked.

[AFM]

I always imagined him as a more athletic monte. Maybe I'm off base here.