Official Trade Thread - Part XLII

[pcbothwel]

Wall is healthy

This post won't age well.

Who cares if hes healthy. Last year when Healthy, Wall averaged a career low/worst in Assist, AST:TOV ratio, rebounds, steals, scoring efficiency, etc.
If anyone believes Wall is an upgrade over Dinwiddie they are delusional.

[payitforward]

...what i said

...what he said.

I think the two of you have really encapsulated how folks are feeling about Simmons.

On the one hand - there is no denying the talent....

It's not a question of "talent." I'm talking about what he has done on the court in his now 9326 NBA minutes. He's been one of the absolutely best players in the entire league -- in the top 10 overall.

Not to mention that some of the impact of his elite defense isn't really captured in his numbers.

...On the other hand, there is no denying that there is something "off" (anecdotally - we aren't going to get his mental health records to truly understand where he is at).

Without a doubt. For starters, he's an extremely unusual player. It's hard to compare him to another player. As well, he's a controversial player. Some of that is because he's so unusual, but some of it is off the court stuff.

OTOH, he wouldn't be available for so little -- he wouldn't be available at all! -- were it not for these factors.

[payitforward]

...The reasons to want him, OTOH, are straightforward: in his first 4 seasons, Ben Simmons has been one of the best PGs in the league, if not the absolute best, & one of the top handful of players in the league overall.

PIF, I agree with you regarding Ben’s immense talent. He’d be one of the top one or two players on pretty much any NBA team... but I do believe there is a tremendous risk in making a player who reportedly doesn’t put in the work to improve his deeply flawed game and who quits on his team because the coach and teammates hurt his feelings one of the cornerstones of your franchise.

Zards, what you write here is both relevant & accurate (except I don't think his game is "deeply flawed" -- more on that below).

On the one hand, Simmons will wind up being traded for much much less than he's worth as a player. On the other hand, there's a hard-to-quantify risk associated with his future. It's hard to tell how much he cares about being an NBA player -- or even about basketball. Who knows? Maybe he'll retire early. He's already got a lot of $$. A couple of seasons more, & he'll be really rich! Maybe he won't even wait that long. In fact, people would like to claim that last season his heart wasn't in it.

Then again, after 30 games this year, Philly was 15-15. Last year it was 20-10. & the year before Ben joined the team, the Sixers went 28-54. The very next year, his rookie year, they went 52-30. Was that turnaround all Ben Simmons? No, obviously not! Was Simmons the single biggest factor in it? You bet! He sure was. By far.

Ben Simmons doesn't have a "deeply flawed game." He has one of the best games of any player in the league -- why else would he be, as Zards points out, "one of the top one or two players on pretty much any NBA team"?

First off, let's debunk the idea that he's a problem, a lead weight, on offense. He's not a volume scorer but he scores as many points per 40 minutes as an average PG. Only... he does it at a significantly above average TS%. That's good not bad. That's an above average scorer not a "problem on offense."

Then there's the fact that he gets 70% more defensive boards than is average for a PG. & 2.5 times as many offensive boards as is average for a PG. He also averages almost 35% more assists than PG-average. He blocks 2 shots for every 1 shot a PG usually blocks, & he gets 40% more steals too. OTOH, he fouls a little more than average, & he turns the ball over more as well.

If he didn't do those two things, he'd be the best player in the league bar none. As it is, he's in the top maybe 7-9 overall over the 4 years of his career so far. If a team is willing to take the risk of acquiring him, that's why.

[pcbothwel]

After last nights game...Im officially out on Brown for Beal without additional pieces.
13 for 36 (39% TS) with ZERO assist. Thats bad Melo/Beasley territory... Add that to his declining defense and Im out.

In case you were wondering, as bad as Beal has been this year, Brown has been just as poor of a scorer...but with more turnovers than assist.
https://stathead.com/tiny/g8h21

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[TGW]

If we could get Simmons, Maxey, and Curry while dumping Bertans, I'll do it.

[DCZards]

Then again, after 30 games this year, Philly was 15-15. Last year it was 20-10. & the year before Ben joined the team, the Sixers went 28-54. The very next year, his rookie year, they went 52-30. Was that turnaround all Ben Simmons? No, obviously not! Was Simmons the single biggest factor in it? You bet! He sure was. By far.

This is the essence of my issue with Ben. He knows the Sixers are a much better team with him on the court yet he’s chosen to stay home while his teammates battle to win games. I have no problem whatsoever with Simmons asking to be traded but I do have a problem with him refusing to play while a trade materializes. Because, at least on the surface, he appears to be acting very selfishly.

Then there's the fact that he gets 70% more defensive boards than is average for a PG. & 2.5 times as many offensive boards as is average for a PG. He also averages almost 35% more assists than PG-average. He blocks 2 shots for every 1 shot a PG usually blocks, & he gets 40% more steals too. OTOH, he fouls a little more than average, & he turns the ball over more as well.

If he didn't do those two things, he'd be the best player in the league bar none. As it is, he's in the top maybe 7-9 overall over the 4 years of his career so far. If a team is willing to take the risk of acquiring him, that's why.

Yes, Simmons is an above average rebounder and shot blocker for a PG. But he's also 6-11, which is at least 5-6 inches taller than the average PG.

I noticed that you didn’t mention that Ben is a significantly poorer FT shooter and 3pt shooter than the average PG. In fact, Ben is a terrible shooter outside of 2-3 feet. That's not good for a perimeter player.

These flaws in Ben’s game may not be “deep” flaws but they are flaws that often put his team at a disadvantage, especially during the playoffs.

[dckingsfan]

Back to the original points. Some see the flaws in Simmons' mental health and game others see the upside of a top 10 player in the L.

One question that I don't see answered. What about the flaws in Beal's game? I don't see him as a top 25 player in the L right now - maybe not even a top 50. And although he isn't terrible on the defensive end, he certainly wouldn't be what you call a two way player.

[nate33]

After last nights game...Im officially out on Brown for Beal without additional pieces.
13 for 36 (39% TS) with ZERO assist. Thats bad Melo/Beasley territory... Add that to his declining defense and Im out.

In case you were wondering, as bad as Beal has been this year, Brown has been just as poor of a scorer...but with more turnovers than assist.
https://stathead.com/tiny/g8h21

Brown is an exceptional defender, he is 3 years younger, and he will cost 60% of what Beal will cost next year.

Also, he improved every year of his career by most advanced metrics until this year. He seems to have a Beal-like intensity to improve his game, year after year. I think the odds are fairly high that his slow start this year is just that... a slow start. I doubt that he suddenly became worse at age 25 than he was at age 24.

His main issue is playmaking. He turns the ball over too much when thrust into that role. But the solution isn't complicated: just don't make him a playmaker. Boston doesn't have the luxury of a real PG like Dinwiddie, so Brown and Tatum are responsible for too much playmaking.

[GoneShammGone]

After last nights game...Im officially out on Brown for Beal without additional pieces.
13 for 36 (39% TS) with ZERO assist. Thats bad Melo/Beasley territory... Add that to his declining defense and Im out.

In case you were wondering, as bad as Beal has been this year, Brown has been just as poor of a scorer...but with more turnovers than assist.
https://stathead.com/tiny/g8h21

That was a brutal game, but I also think its kind of a unique situation. Celtics don't have anybody else right now who can even hope to score due to the covid situation. Also, Jaylen has had a bad year, but has been injured for much of it.

But overall, he's 25, a great defender, and has improved his game each of the last two years prior to this. Obviously Simmons has higher upside, but everybody is going to be fighting for him. Maybe the Beal/Tatum connection gives the Wizards an advantage in swinging a Brown deal?

Overall, I think Brown is one of the few youngish stars that might be available for Beal. I would be willing to roll the dice for him.

[DCZards]

Back to the original points. Some see the flaws in Simmons' mental health and game others see the upside of a top 10 player in the L.

One question that I don't see answered. What about the flaws in Beal's game? I don't see him as a top 25 player in the L right now - maybe not even a top 50. And although he isn't terrible on the defensive end, he certainly wouldn't be what you call a two way player.

Beal's game is flawed. But he's certainly a top 50 player....arguably top 25. He certainly was beginning to play like a top 25 player before the health & safety protocol.

[dckingsfan]

Back to the original points. Some see the flaws in Simmons' mental health and game others see the upside of a top 10 player in the L.

One question that I don't see answered. What about the flaws in Beal's game? I don't see him as a top 25 player in the L right now - maybe not even a top 50. And although he isn't terrible on the defensive end, he certainly wouldn't be what you call a two way player.

Beal's game is flawed. But he's certainly a top 50 player....arguably top 25. He certainly was beginning to play like a top 25 player before the health & safety protocol.

Interesting - so two flawed players, one a top 10 and the other a top 50.

[DCZards]

Back to the original points. Some see the flaws in Simmons' mental health and game others see the upside of a top 10 player in the L.

One question that I don't see answered. What about the flaws in Beal's game? I don't see him as a top 25 player in the L right now - maybe not even a top 50. And although he isn't terrible on the defensive end, he certainly wouldn't be what you call a two way player.

Beal's game is flawed. But he's certainly a top 50 player....arguably top 25. He certainly was beginning to play like a top 25 player before the health & safety protocol.

Interesting - so two flawed players, one a top 10 and the other a top 50.

No...two flawed players, both top 25, imo.

[payitforward]

After last nights game...Im officially out on Brown for Beal without additional pieces.
13 for 36 (39% TS) with ZERO assist. Thats bad Melo/Beasley territory... Add that to his declining defense and Im out.

In case you were wondering, as bad as Beal has been this year, Brown has been just as poor of a scorer...but with more turnovers than assist.
https://stathead.com/tiny/g8h21

Coupla bums....

But, no, Brown has not been "just as poor... a scorer." He's been a little better than Brad on virtually identical usage. Take a look at their TS%. OTOH, Brad has been a little better overall on the rest of the box score stuff.

Overall, there's not enough difference in their numbers to make anything out of it. Miniscule.

[payitforward]

If we could get Simmons, Maxey, and Curry while dumping Bertans, I'll do it.

I'll say!

[dckingsfan]

Beal's game is flawed. But he's certainly a top 50 player....arguably top 25. He certainly was beginning to play like a top 25 player before the health & safety protocol.

Interesting - so two flawed players, one a top 10 and the other a top 50.

No...two flawed players, both top 25, imo.

And there you have it - it is how "you" value the two players as to if you would take the risk.

Both have enhanced risks moving forward - Beal with an almost certain franchise crippling contract and Simmons with possible mental health issues.

[payitforward]

Then again, after 30 games this year, Philly was 15-15. Last year it was 20-10. & the year before Ben joined the team, the Sixers went 28-54. The very next year, his rookie year, they went 52-30. Was that turnaround all Ben Simmons? No, obviously not! Was Simmons the single biggest factor in it? You bet! He sure was. By far.

This is the essence of my issue with Ben. He knows the Sixers are a much better team with him on the court yet he’s chosen to stay home while his teammates battle to win games. I have no problem whatsoever with Simmons asking to be traded but I do have a problem with him refusing to play while a trade materializes. Because, at least on the surface, he appears to be acting very selfishly....

I agree 100%. This willful behavior is the main weight on the negative side of the scale. Plus, you have to ask yourself why he's doing this.

Is he punishing the teammates he saw as blaming him for the team's failure in the playoffs? Showing them just how meh they are without him? Or, is he punishing Doc? Does he even have a reason to want to punish Daryl Morey or the FO or ownership? Or... is he simply content to sit home & collect his enormous contract, since after all the game itself doesn't matter that much to him?

...I noticed that you didn’t mention that Ben is a significantly poorer FT shooter and 3pt shooter than the average PG. In fact, Ben is a terrible shooter outside of 2-3 feet. That's not good for a perimeter player....

Everyone knows those things, Zards. They just make it all the more astonishing that he is among the best 10 players in the game overall!

...These flaws in Ben’s game may not be “deep” flaws but they are flaws that often put his team at a disadvantage, especially during the playoffs.

My problem was not with the word "deep." Ben is a "deeply" bad shooter from "deep!" (oh man... aren't I clever...?). In fact, he can't sh##t for sh#t.

My problem was with the word "flawed" in "deeply flawed game" -- even though it's true that he -- like every player-- has "flaws" in his game. You can't describe one the top players in the NBA as having a deeply flawed game.

You remember Gerald Green? Bounced around the league a few years. Now, there was a guy who had a "deeply flawed game." Ben Simmons just has a weird game, a most unusual game.

[payitforward]

Beal's game is flawed. But he's certainly a top 50 player....arguably top 25. He certainly was beginning to play like a top 25 player before the health & safety protocol.

Interesting - so two flawed players, one a top 10 and the other a top 50.

No...two flawed players, both top 25, imo.

This is always a difficult conversation, b/c a team's fans overrate their players -- it's normal. Plus, guys who score a lot of points also get overrated.

If you compare Ben & Brad during any of the 4 seasons in which they both played, the difference between them is enormous.Here's 2018-19 (IMO, Brad's best year overall):

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?player_id2=simmobe01&p1yrfrom=2019&player_id1=bealbr01&p2yrfrom=2019&sum=0&request=1

Ben Simmons is a much much better player than Bradley Beal. Nor is that a criticism of Brad. It's just a recognition of how incredibly good Ben is.

Edit -- in the end, this is all irrelevant. Especially in this thread, unless we are going to trade Brad for Ben, which seems quite unlikely to me!

[FAH1223]

I think Mowry ain’t doing shid this season. Sixers are getting their groove back. Maxey is getting valuable minutes.

[gambitx777]

Unless someone of the Beal/dame/harden level players requests a trade to Philly I bet DM just punts this season.

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