WizFans, what are your expectations?

[willbcocks]

And if Mcgee -- now bear with me because I know this is a pretty outlandish scenario -- gets into foul trouble, we're putting armstrong out there? Seriously our 3-5 spots, even if Blatche and Mcgee improve, are going to be extremely weak. Our leader will be a rookie, albeit a rookie delivered from God Himself. Literally everyone on the roster is a question mark, except for maybe armstrong and Yi, who's answer is suck.

I am expecting to have a blast next season but I would be very very surprised if we make the playoffs.

[fishercob]

Exactly, Will. This front office brought Yi in to give him a look. I wouldn't be surprised if he's our first big off the bench many nights. I think we'll see him and Dray out there together enough to make a lot of people ill.

[verbal8]

And I think, overall, we're going to suck.

The reason is really quite simple -- defensive rebounds. I think too many of the missed shots we force will result in fresh possessions for the offense. More importantly, we're not going to be able to get into our transition game close to enough because we won't own the defensive boards. The nights we rebound well, I think we'll win. But if we can't get Wall the ball in of an outlet pass -- if he's forced to walk it up court after a made basket -- we'll be neutered of our best weapon.

This is why I am little disappointed that the Wizards signed Armstrong rather than bringing Singleton back. It is true Singleton would have cost more, but if there is one thing he can do it is rebound. I think Booker should be able to help some on the defensive boards, but with such weak bigs it will be an issue.

I think Serpahin and McGee improving his position are the long-term answer, but I agree the short term will be pretty ugly.

[fishercob]

And I think, overall, we're going to suck.

The reason is really quite simple -- defensive rebounds. I think too many of the missed shots we force will result in fresh possessions for the offense. More importantly, we're not going to be able to get into our transition game close to enough because we won't own the defensive boards. The nights we rebound well, I think we'll win. But if we can't get Wall the ball in of an outlet pass -- if he's forced to walk it up court after a made basket -- we'll be neutered of our best weapon.

This is why I am little disappointed that the Wizards signed Armstrong rather than bringing Singleton back. It is true Singleton would have cost more, but if there is one thing he can do it is rebound. I think Booker should be able to help some on the defensive boards, but with such weak bigs it will be an issue.

I think Serpahin and McGee improving his position are the long-term answer, but I agree the short term will be pretty ugly.

And it's also yet another reason I wasn't fond of the Yi deal too. I'd much rather have taken a look at a guy with upside in our areas of weakness -- toughness, rebounding, etc.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

And if Mcgee -- now bear with me because I know this is a pretty outlandish scenario -- gets into foul trouble, we're putting armstrong out there? Seriously our 3-5 spots, even if Blatche and Mcgee improve, are going to be extremely weak. Our leader will be a rookie, albeit a rookie delivered from God Himself. Literally everyone on the roster is a question mark, except for maybe armstrong and Yi, who's answer is suck.

I am expecting to have a blast next season but I would be very very surprised if we make the playoffs.

willbcocks, Wall is going to take the Wizards to the playoffs this season. He's connected.

I think Yi has the same type running and dunking offensive game that McGee and Booker excel at. Wall can make him better if Yi will become more physical. I imagine he's going to be seriously challenged to toughen up in practices against Blatche, Booker, Seraphin if he's signed, and McGee.

The way I see things, Washington's got a fast, long team now. Wall's leadership and skill at PG, even with the massive turnovers, is going to make this team way better this coming season.

[fishercob]

CCJ, the Wiz can't run if they don't have the ball. We were 25th in defensive rebound percentage last year. I'd expect that number to get worse in the short term without Haywood, Jamison and Mike Miller. Playoffs are a pipe dream IMHO.

[Ruzious]

And if Mcgee -- now bear with me because I know this is a pretty outlandish scenario -- gets into foul trouble, we're putting armstrong out there? Seriously our 3-5 spots, even if Blatche and Mcgee improve, are going to be extremely weak. Our leader will be a rookie, albeit a rookie delivered from God Himself. Literally everyone on the roster is a question mark, except for maybe armstrong and Yi, who's answer is suck.

I am expecting to have a blast next season but I would be very very surprised if we make the playoffs.

willbcocks, Wall is going to take the Wizards to the playoffs this season. He's connected.

I think Yi has the same type running and dunking offensive game that McGee and Booker excel at. Wall can make him better if Yi will become more physical. I imagine he's going to be seriously challenged to toughen up in practices against Blatche, Booker, Seraphin if he's signed, and McGee.

The way I see things, Washington's got a fast, long team now. Wall's leadership and skill at PG, even with the massive turnovers, is going to make this team way better this coming season.

Right - well, except for that 1st paragraph. The team is going to be completely different this season. They're going to be a team in transition - in more ways than 1. They were horrific in transition last season. This season, that should completely change. And that should help out the athletes on the team - including Yi. Some folks here have already written him off, but he's exactly the type of player the Wiz should have gone after. People should at least wait to see how he fits here before concluding he won't be effective.

[willbcocks]

I have no beef with any of the offseason signings. I think we've played it perfectly. With that said, I'm going in expecting nothing out of any of them. Who knows though, maybe we'll have another livingston on our hands. That's why you throw out fliers (sp?) on guys...

[miller31time]

This is odd - I find myself in the unusual position of positivity when most are erring on the side of caution (well, probably realism). I actually see us sneaking in as the 7th or 8th seed. For all of our deficiencies we have three above-average players. One of which (Arenas) has a personal vendetta to succeed this season, one of which has a strong likelihood to win the ROY award (Wall), and the last of which proved many people, myself included, wrong with consistently solid play last season and looks to carry that into 10-11 (Blatche).

Do we have much more than that? No, and I'll be the first to admit that. But it's not as if the bottom of the barrel playoff teams are lighting it up with superstar talent or infinitely deep benches.

------------------------------------------------------------

Surefire Playoff Teams

Miami
Boston
Orlando
Atlanta
Chicago

Potential Playoff Teams

Milwaukee
Charlotte
New York

Non-Playoff Teams

Indiana
Detroit
Philadelphia
New Jersey
Cleveland
Toronto

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I feel we're on the level of Charlotte (who I believe overachieved greatly last season, and now they've lost Felton and Chandler albeit gaining Livingston and Thomas) and New York who, besides Amare, lacks a true 2nd option or even 3rd option on offense and will once again be abysmal on defense. I'll cede that Milwaukee is probably better, especially with the emergence of Andrew Bogut, but even they are no sure-fire team. Beyond Bogut (who isn't even a credible 1st option), they have a still-inexperienced Brandon Jennings and a bunch of role players (Salmons, Maggette, Illyasova, Gooden, etc). Sure, they're deeper but their top-tier talent is not as good as ours, IMO.

[Benjammin]

^^
According to pythagorean W-L (basically it takes into account points scored and points allowed) Charlotte's record should have been 45-37. It was 44-38. Charlotte was the best team in the league defensively, even accounting for pace. I don't know how their moves offseason will impact them.

I don't think the Knicks are anything special but they may have another move or two, especially if they use Curry's expiring deal.

Now if the Wizards re-signed Josh Howard and he is healthy, then I can see them having a very strong chance of being the 7th or 8th seed. Otherwise, the Wizards' pronounced weakness at the 3 and 5 may be more significant than their above average players at 1,2, and 4.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

This is odd - I find myself in the unusual position of positivity when most are erring on the side of caution (well, probably realism). I actually see us sneaking in as the 7th or 8th seed. For all of our deficiencies we have three above-average players. One of which (Arenas) has a personal vendetta to succeed this season, one of which has a strong likelihood to win the ROY award (Wall), and the last of which proved many people, myself included, wrong with consistently solid play last season and looks to carry that into 10-11 (Blatche).

Do we have much more than that? No, and I'll be the first to admit that. But it's not as if the bottom of the barrel playoff teams are lighting it up with superstar talent or infinitely deep benches.

------------------------------------------------------------

Surefire Playoff Teams

Miami
Boston
Orlando
Atlanta
Chicago

Potential Playoff Teams

Milwaukee
Charlotte
New York

Non-Playoff Teams

Indiana
Detroit
Philadelphia
New Jersey
Cleveland
Toronto

------------------------------------------------------------

I feel we're on the level of Charlotte (who I believe overachieved greatly last season, and now they've lost Felton and Chandler albeit gaining Livingston and Thomas) and New York who, besides Amare, lacks a true 2nd option or even 3rd option on offense and will once again be abysmal on defense. I'll cede that Milwaukee is probably better, especially with the emergence of Andrew Bogut, but even they are no sure-fire team. Beyond Bogut (who isn't even a credible 1st option), they have a still-inexperienced Brandon Jennings and a bunch of role players (Salmons, Maggette, Illyasova, Gooden, etc). Sure, they're deeper but their top-tier talent is not as good as ours, IMO.

Miller, I agree totally with your first paragraph.

I also think the same guy I couldn't stand last year as a coach, Flip Saunders, is going to turn it around this season. At the beginning of last season, the Wizards lost some tantalizingly close games. Must have been at least 5 or 6 games they lost after having what seemed like a pretty sure win. Seemed that way to me, anyway. After the trade, this team lost 15 games in a row. After that they went 5-5. They ended up with 26 wins.

Flip had averaged 48 wins prior to becoming Wizards coach.

What I think will happen is this season they're going to win games because of the dynamic at PG and with Gil (if they don't trade him). I believe Gil's still a closer as far as hitting the big shot. I think Blatche will prove last season was no fluke. I think McGee will prove that the 13.3 pts, 8.5 rebs he averaged in 23 minutes last april was no fluke.

This season McGee is going to have at least a couple 30 point games. He's going to score a bunch and if Flip plays him 28 minutes or me, Javale will be among the league leaders in blocked shots.

Because of tough guys like Booker and hopefully, Seraphin, this team will be greatly improved. I think 40 wins is a reasonable expectation.

[Kanyewest]

I agree w/ that, but the criterion Wiz99 was speaking of was a HOF-caliber player in his prime, and in their primes, Dumars, Moncrief, Lever, and Richmond all fit that description to me. Had any of the latter three played on a champion, they too might be in the HOF. (I don't think any of them are, are they?)

Mitch Richmond does have a championship ring since he played on that 2001-02 Lakers team. But since he didn't contribute much, it doesn't help his case for the HOF.

[JWizmentality]

I expect that my expectations will be no where near what I expected.

[Kanyewest]

Surefire Playoff Teams
Atlanta

Potential Playoff Teams

Milwaukee

------------------------------------

I'll cede that Milwaukee is probably better, especially with the emergence of Andrew Bogut, but even they are no sure-fire team. Beyond Bogut (who isn't even a credible 1st option), they have a still-inexperienced Brandon Jennings and a bunch of role players (Salmons, Maggette, Illyasova, Gooden, etc). Sure, they're deeper but their top-tier talent is not as good as ours, IMO.

The Bucks had the best record in the 2nd half of the season before Bogut went down with that injury and could have had a chance for the 4th seed.

Even if you think that the Wizards talent is good enough to overtake the Bucks, is Atlanta really even a better team than the Bucks, who were able to take the Hawks to 7 games without their best player? BTW, what's the story with Michael Redd- who is coming off of his 2nd knee surgery- I'll be interested to see if he can make a contribution to the Bucks this season.

[JonathanJoseph]

Now that we have seen Wall in action, this is a good thread.

I still say that 40 wins should be expected.

MillerTime wrote that we have 3 "above average" players, which I find surprising. Arenas, even the 09-10 22 pts/7 assists Arenas is still well above average. The Andray Blatche of post-trade deadline is well above average. And John Wall seems to be well above average from day 1. I think you can make a rational argument that 1 of the 3 ends up in the all-star game this year. I'd still take that trio over Bogut/Salmons/Jennings every day and twice on Sundays.

The "average" number 1 draft pick improves a team from the year prior by an average of 9-10 games. Wall ALONE should make the Wizards a 36 win team, and that number doesn't take into account the reality that John Wall makes everyone around him better. I still think Wall's presence turns Arenas from a creator into a finisher, and as CCJ noted, Arenas is best as a finisher/closer. Arenas as designated finisher makes me drool.

If McGee can hold his 13/8 from the end of last season, and any two of Seraphin/Booker/Yi/Armstong can provide some "tough" minutes, I'd say that 40 wins are likely and 45 wins very possible. Flip has done more with less.

[pancakes3]

getting arenas back is LIKE getting another number 1 pick. i'm saying +15 wins from last year. 41 wins AT LEAST.

[AceDegenerate]

I believe this is clearly a .500 team without injury or serious regression from somebody on the squad. The assumption has to be if the team gets out to a good start, they might try to acquire players at the trade deadline that will actually improve the talent on the floor rather than the salary situation.

[fishercob]

getting arenas back is LIKE getting another number 1 pick. i'm saying +15 wins from last year. 41 wins AT LEAST.

What about the loss of Haywood, Miller, and to a degree Jamison and Butler?

As a historically drunken optimist, I'm really excited for our growth but don't see us winning more than 30-35 games.

Derrick Rose's Bulls went 41-41 when he was a rookie, and that roster had tons more talent top to bottom.

Deron WIlliams went 41-41 as a rookie with far more supporting talent.

Russell Westbrook's Thunder were 23-59 with Durant, Green, Collison, Kristic, Wilcox, etc.

We're a lot closer in total talent to that Thunder team than we are those Bulls or Jazz. And that's....Oh kay!

[tkunit]

getting arenas back is LIKE getting another number 1 pick. i'm saying +15 wins from last year. 41 wins AT LEAST.

The problem is we still don't know what arenas we are getting. I just want to see a team improve as the year goes on.

[Rafael122]

I believe this is clearly a .500 team without injury or serious regression from somebody on the squad. The assumption has to be if the team gets out to a good start, they might try to acquire players at the trade deadline that will actually improve the talent on the floor rather than the salary situation.

Yup, I think if this team is in it in early February, you would have to make a move to give the team that push. Not necessarily to become favorites to win the East, but enough to get a 6th-8th seed. Kinda like what the Bucks did to get Salmons.