Official Trade Thread XIV: 6/14/10 - 12/22/10

[verbal8]

4. Somehow, I doubt our ability to land Howard haha. I thin he's either staying in Orlando, or looking to go to an already top notch team that he can push over the top by creating his own "Miami Thrice". Only way he comes here is if Wall has established himself as an ELITE talent, and if another Wizard has significantly stepped their game up and we're already contenders. I just don't see that happening in the next 2 years.

I think there's a real chance of this scenario taking place. I think a team with Wall, Hinrich, Young, Blatche and McGee plus two more years of seasoning, a first round pick next year, and another BOYD first rounder will be a 45 win team in 2011/12. If Orlando proved to be woefully ineffective at beating Miami in the next years, Howard might start looking around for other teams with championship potential.

Basically, we could be the Chicago Bulls of this summer. A real good, young team with lots of cap room, in a major market, but in need of one more star to get to the next level. If not for the Miami coup, Chicago would have ended up with Lebron or Bosh and put themselves in the mix for perennial contention.

The most obvious championship destination for Howard would be OKC. Westbrook, Durant and Howard would be a big 3 to challenge the Miami Thrice. Then the depth would be Harden and Aldrich or Jeff Green are solid and very likely better than what Miami will have. Then the depth with Maynor, Thabo and Ibaka or DJ White is really strong.

[nate33]

The most obvious championship destination for Howard would be OKC. Westbrook, Durant and Howard would be a big 3 to challenge the Miami Thrice. Then the depth would be Harden and Aldrich or Jeff Green are solid and very likely better than what Miami will have. Then the depth with Maynor, Thabo and Ibaka or DJ White is really strong.

They might have trouble getting under the cap depending upon the new CBA. Durant will be on a max salary. Westbrook will have a max salary cap hold. Green will be paid a substantial amount as well.

[Rafael122]

Plus it's Oklahoma...

[forbes20]

Sorry, but Melo at 3yrs and $65m seems too pricey for me. Melo also doesn't strike me as much of a leader, plus he doesn't seem to play too much defense.

Granted, Arenas isn't a leader either, and most folks here aren't too excited about his deal any longer. And me doesn't play any defense.

[TheKingOfVa360]

The most obvious championship destination for Howard would be OKC. Westbrook, Durant and Howard would be a big 3 to challenge the Miami Thrice. Then the depth would be Harden and Aldrich or Jeff Green are solid and very likely better than what Miami will have. Then the depth with Maynor, Thabo and Ibaka or DJ White is really strong.

They might have trouble getting under the cap depending upon the new CBA. Durant will be on a max salary. Westbrook will have a max salary cap hold. Green will be paid a substantial amount as well.

Westbrook won't get a max contract, he will get a contract like Rondo.

[Kanyewest]

Rondo may have gotten a max contract if he did not sign that extension. Man that would be an UGLY contract.

[Kanyewest]

In 2011:
We could acquire Melo.
We could acquire Marc Gasol, Kendrick Perkins, or Al Horford.
We could make 2 BOYD deals for picks and 2012 contracts.

In 2012:
We could acquire Dwight Howard
We could take incentive to help position someone else to acquire Chris Paul
We could scoop up any of the overpaid players who were dumped with the new Allan Houston rule.
We could make 2 more BOYD deals for picks and 2013 contracts.

I thought the Nuggets were going to trade Melo if they can't get him to sign an extension so it's very unlikely that Melo will leave. I'm not sure why the Wizards would target Chris Paul when the Wizards already have John Wall. I'm not pinning the Wizards hope of cap space on Dwight Howard- although I would LOVE him on the Wizards.

[Ruzious]

In 2011:
We could acquire Melo.
We could acquire Marc Gasol, Kendrick Perkins, or Al Horford.
We could make 2 BOYD deals for picks and 2012 contracts.

In 2012:
We could acquire Dwight Howard
We could take incentive to help position someone else to acquire Chris Paul
We could scoop up any of the overpaid players who were dumped with the new Allan Houston rule.
We could make 2 more BOYD deals for picks and 2013 contracts.

A post to refer back to many times.

And I'm glad there's somebody that understands that the cap advantage isn't a 1 year thing. If there isn't a max free agent we want in 2011, there are still a lot of other opportunities to use that cap space - opportunities that we don't know about now. In the past few seasons, we didn't know that players like KG, Pau Gasol, and Amare would become available. Having cap space is an automatic advantage in acquiring players like them.

[fishercob]

In 2011:
We could acquire Melo.
We could acquire Marc Gasol, Kendrick Perkins, or Al Horford.
We could make 2 BOYD deals for picks and 2012 contracts.

In 2012:
We could acquire Dwight Howard
We could take incentive to help position someone else to acquire Chris Paul
We could scoop up any of the overpaid players who were dumped with the new Allan Houston rule.
We could make 2 more BOYD deals for picks and 2013 contracts.

A post to refer back to many times.

And I'm glad there's somebody that understands that the cap advantage isn't a 1 year thing. If there isn't a max free agent we want in 2011, there are still a lot of other opportunities to use that cap space - opportunities that we don't know about now. In the past few seasons, we didn't know that players like KG, Pau Gasol, and Amare would become available. Having cap space is an automatic advantage in acquiring players like them.

Exactly. The Pistons had the foresight to trade Chauncey's bloated deal for AI's expiring. They endured some pain in the short term, but parlayed the cap space into building blocks for a perennial champion. And Billups fell apart as soon as he left town. Case closed!

[fishercob]

Not only was that brilliant and succesful, but Memphis knew exactly what it was doing when it traded Pau Gasol. The guy was 27, making big money and coming off an injury and a 22 win season. The franchise was a pillar of mediocrity failing to get out of the first round of the playoffs for three straight years.

But the Gasol deal opened up CAP SPACE! And after two more terrible seasons, Memphis won 40 games this past year!! Not only that, but they had the financial flexibility to give Rudy Gay $80M this summer AND have room to sign Tony Allen.

Trade those all-stars on bloated contracts. It's the only way to go!

[fishercob]

Look how Minnesota has cashed in on trading Kevin Garnett! Look how New Jersey was able to build a winner by selling Kidd, Carter and Jefferson off for cap flexibility! Golden State got THE Brandan Wright for nothing but Jason Richardson, and that's been pretty much a win-win, right?

CAP SPACE RULZ!!!

[Severn Hoos]

Oh man, fish, I was formulating a brilliant response to your first post. You had me going there for a minute with the Pistons example, I almost thought you were serious. Oh, and I agree completely, FWIW.

[gesa2]

Cap space is the mystery behind the curtain. It always looks better than what you have. And the Trade Gil fanatics still don't explain why we'll need MORE than the max contract cap space we can have WITH GIL ON THE TEAM by trading Hinrich at the deadline.

[Ruzious]

Look how Minnesota has cashed in on trading Kevin Garnett! Look how New Jersey was able to build a winner by selling Kidd, Carter and Jefferson off for cap flexibility! Golden State got THE Brandan Wright for nothing but Jason Richardson, and that's been pretty much a win-win, right?

CAP SPACE RULZ!!!

Um... I was talking about using space to ACQUIRE stars. You're talking about sellers.

A subtle difference there, fish.

[KevinFCheng]

Look how Minnesota has cashed in on trading Kevin Garnett! Look how New Jersey was able to build a winner by selling Kidd, Carter and Jefferson off for cap flexibility! Golden State got THE Brandan Wright for nothing but Jason Richardson, and that's been pretty much a win-win, right?

CAP SPACE RULZ!!!

Um... I was talking about using space to ACQUIRE stars. You're talking about sellers.

A subtle difference there, fish.

I don't think you know what he's talking about.

[Ruzious]

I think I do, Mr. Cheng, but thanks for your explanation. When Memphis was trying to save money on Gasol, the Lakers gave them Kwame Brown's big expiring and trinkets (They lucked out that Pau's brother turned out so well, but that's beside the point.). Cap space is obviously works at least as well as an expiring. I think the Lakers are happy with that trade. Minnesota wanted to save money on KG, and Boston was the buyer. I think they're pretty happy with that trade. By getting cap room, they can get in position to make trades for star players. I was talking about Washington being the buyer; not the seller. Just because some teams have used cap space poorly doesn't mean that's going to happen to the Wiz.

[fishercob]

Look how Minnesota has cashed in on trading Kevin Garnett! Look how New Jersey was able to build a winner by selling Kidd, Carter and Jefferson off for cap flexibility! Golden State got THE Brandan Wright for nothing but Jason Richardson, and that's been pretty much a win-win, right?

CAP SPACE RULZ!!!

Um... I was talking about using space to ACQUIRE stars. You're talking about sellers.

A subtle difference there, fish.

Same difference, Ruz. The supposed point of moving Gil is the pot of golden cap space that will allow us to acquire Melo or Dwight Howard or whomever. In, when stars are traded for non-stars, it's usually not for cap space. It;s usually for large expirings or larger shorter deals

Kwame's expiring for Gasol
Lafrentz's expiring for KG
Wally and #5 for Ray Allen
Richard Jefferson for expiring deals of K Thomas and Bowen
Tony Battie for Vince Carter
AI's expiring for Billups
Josh Howard and Z's "expiring" for Jamison and Butler

If you want to trade for stars, big expiring contracts are a lot more important than cap space. For every Miami (unprecedented) or Chicago success stories, there are 5 examples of teams that blew themselves up in hopes of signing free agents and came up worse than where they started.

[Ruzious]

Look how Minnesota has cashed in on trading Kevin Garnett! Look how New Jersey was able to build a winner by selling Kidd, Carter and Jefferson off for cap flexibility! Golden State got THE Brandan Wright for nothing but Jason Richardson, and that's been pretty much a win-win, right?

CAP SPACE RULZ!!!

Um... I was talking about using space to ACQUIRE stars. You're talking about sellers.

A subtle difference there, fish.

Sam difference, Ruz. The supposed point of moving Gil is the pot of golden cap space that will allow us to acquire Melo or Dwight Howard or whomever. In, when stars are traded for non-stars, it's usually not for cap space. It;s usually for large expirings or larger shorter deals

Kwame's expiring for Gasol
Lafrentz's expiring for KG
Wally and #5 for Ray Allen
Richard Jefferson for expiring deals of K Thomas and Bowen
Tony Battie for Vince Carter
AI's expiring for Billups
Josh Howard and Z's "expiring" for Jamison and Butler

See my previous post.

If you want to trade for stars, big expiring contracts are a lot more important than cap space. For every Miami (unprecedented) or Chicago success stories, there are 5 examples of teams that blew themselves up in hopes of signing free agents and came up worse than where they started.

An exipring is NOT more valuable than cap space unless the player with the expring is better than his contract. Normally, when we're talking about expirings, the player isn't worth his contract. Why would you want to pay a bad contract when you could pay nothing?

The whole point of the BOYD trades is to trade cap space for an expiring and a pick. If you understand that logic, how could you think than an expring is worth more than cap space?

[fishercob]

I misspoke. In and of itself, an expiring is not more important than raw cap space. However, history tells us stars get traded for expirings MUCH more often than they do for cap room. The cap-clearing frenzy this year has skewed some perceptions on how talent is acquired. Usually there afre only a few teams with cap room to take on a star, and often those teams dont have the valuable "filler" to make the deals work.

Just look at the examples above and dozens others like it. Most trades are made within the 125% rule. Being vastly under the cap -- at the expense of all-star talent -- usually accomplishes nothing.

[Ruzious]

I misspoke. In and of itself, an expiring is not more important than raw cap space. However, history tells us stars get traded for expirings MUCH more often than they do for cap room. The cap-clearing frenzy this year has skewed some perceptions on how talent is acquired. Usually there afre only a few teams with cap room to take on a star, and often those teams dont have the valuable "filler" to make the deals work.

Just look at the examples above and dozens others like it. Most trades are made within the 125% rule. Being vastly under the cap -- at the expense of all-star talent -- usually accomplishes nothing.

Key words being at the expense of all-star talent. Gil is no longer considered all-star talent outside of this forum, imo. And he's not considered a player you build around to win a championship.