Are the Wizards a Playoff Team This Year?

[Ruzious]

Blatche's turnovers were an invonvenient truth that a lot of folks here ignored - 3.3 a game in March and then 3.8 a game in April. I think his to's will go down - thanks to having both Arenas and Wall's positive presence and the fact that he's not going to have the ball as much. Their presence should lead to him getting more easy baskets and being a more efficient scorer - though his scoring average might drop a couple of points from the 21 or so he was averaging after the trade.

[fishercob]

^

Tonight, when I have time, I gotta google history and see what the average W-L improvement is for a team drafting #1. I think John Wall will have a larger than average impact on our team (as compared to most #1s).

There was a huge discussion of this here this summer before you made your triumphant return. I'm trying to remember where. I think we had a "predict the Wizards record this year" thread and it was in there.

EDIT: Nope, not in that thread which I found on page 3. Will look a little more.

[Ruzious]

^

Tonight, when I have time, I gotta google history and see what the average W-L improvement is for a team drafting #1. I think John Wall will have a larger than average impact on our team (as compared to most #1s).

There are some historical glitches with that - like David Robinson returning for Tim Duncan's rookie year, Oscar Robertson joining Lew Alcindor, Blake Griffin missing his rookie year, Javale McGee developing into the Association's MVP in John Wall's rookie year, etc.

[pineappleheadindc]

LOL - I now stand better educated on the subject.

[fishercob]

^

Tonight, when I have time, I gotta google history and see what the average W-L improvement is for a team drafting #1. I think John Wall will have a larger than average impact on our team (as compared to most #1s).

Here you go, Piney: viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1022747&start=870

So good to have you back. Hope your family is well..

[montestewart]

^

Tonight, when I have time, I gotta google history and see what the average W-L improvement is for a team drafting #1. I think John Wall will have a larger than average impact on our team (as compared to most #1s).

There are some historical glitches with that - like David Robinson returning for Tim Duncan's rookie year, Oscar Robertson joining Lew Alcindor, Blake Griffin missing his rookie year, Javale McGee developing into the Association's MVP in John Wall's rookie year, etc.

Michael Jordan joining Kwame Brown: the Big 2 good for an 18 game improvement.

[Nivek]

Figures it would have been looked at already. I put the before and after numbers on the teams that picked #1 #1 since 1968 (I wanted to include Elvin Hayes) and found that the team picking in that spot improved by 10.8 wins. As others point out, there are confounding factors -- David Robinson returning for Duncan's rookie season (a 36-win improvement); players missing big chunks (or all) of the following season (Griffin, Pervis, Manning, Ewing, Walton, Doug Collins, Austin Carr). This doesn't get into other roster moves the team may have made. Oh yeah, and I pro-rated the strike-shortened season's record to an 82-game schedule.

Cutting San Antonio's Duncan/Robinson returns season to an 18 win improvement drops the average improvement to 10.4 (from 10.8). So, if the Wizards improve by 11 wins they'd be at 28 -- IF you're going by their record at the end of the year. They were more like a 23-win team over the last 32 (if I recall correctly), which would put them in the 34-win range.

I'm not quite that optimistic because (unlike pine) I don't see why Wall will be on the high end of the improvement range. I'm also looking at some of the other flaws mentioned previously, including the gaping hole at SF (at least until Howard gets back).

[montestewart]

^
Don't forget that Howard had little contribution to that 22-23 win pace, so anything he gives this year can be added to that.

[nate33]

^
Don't forget that Howard had little contribution to that 22-23 win pace, so anything he gives this year can be added to that.

Not to mention Gilbert Arenas.

[montestewart]

^
Don't forget that Howard had little contribution to that 22-23 win pace, so anything he gives this year can be added to that.

Not to mention Gilbert Arenas.

Wall and Arenas added to the 22-23 win pace are givens (how many wins added? who knows?), but if Howard can return and find any of his form prior to last year, he should add wins to that total, and could still be an improvement over Butler.

Using the same reasoning, I added Arenas, Haywood, Miller and Foye to a to a 19 win team last year and somehow predicted 47 (or some such) wins, so I'm aware of the flaws in this "wins added" system.

[dobrojim]

[snip]

I think the Wiz will improve this season, but I don't see playoffs. That would take roughly a 14-15 game improvement. Getting to .500 means an efficiency differential improvement of about 7 points per 100 possessions from where they were at the end of last season. If I'm right (that their defense is about average), that would mean they'd have to be better on offense by about 5 points per 100 possessions. That's a tall order. Not impossible, but it would be a major achievement to do it.

But during the DAL game CSN posted a stat that the avg improvement after getting
a #1#1 is 13.7 games. And I think Johnny Wallgame is better than a typical #1.
And we're adding back in a former allNBA player still in his prime (I hope).

[JonathanJoseph]

[

I'm still holding off on a final prediction, because I've only seen 1 pre-season game and a few highlights, but how everyone isn't over the top optimistic right now I have no idea. That was a championship contender on the road in Dallas and the Wizards ran them off the floor, despite it being obvious that John Wall will be much better very soon. But my 42-47 win range and a playoff berth from earlier this summer still looks good to me.

But taking all the other reasons out, I'd say most if not all of you are discounting the impact that John Wall will have right off the bat. Despite his learning curve, he has "it" that goes beyond any skills or athletic ability. He's just a winner. 35-3 at Kentucky. 4-1 in Summer League. 2-0 in preseason. Sure, let's see what happens in the regular season, but at some point all that winning is not a coincidence.

John Wall and the cast of misfits that ended last season might have been a .500 squad.

After 4 preseason games, Wiz kids are 3-1 and except for a letdown on the back end of a road back-to-back, the Wiz have been up by 20 against 3 separate opponents, two of which fancy themselves contenders. Like I said before, at some point this is not a fluke and not just pre-season. It's just that our franchise PG is a winner.

I'll be surprised if this is not a playoff team this season. I predict the "Wages of Win" guy will lose all credibility and the Wizards will be an offensive terror with athleticism and talent and matchup problems everywhere. If the Wizards can rebound like they did today 50 wins is a possibility.

[Higga]

Teams that are clearly superior:

Orlando
Miami
Chicago
Boston

Teams that are probably better but we could compete with:

Atlanta
Milwaukee

Worst case scenario thats 6 teams better than us. I think we're definitely going to be better than Indiana, Philly, New Jersey, and Toronto. Cleveland is kind of a mystery, they still have some decent players but without Lebron they'll probably collapse. Charlotte and New York are our biggest competitors for the last two playoff spots.

[dangermouse]

we are superior to cleveland. we just match up well with them and even moreso now that the King has left the building.

whos their go-to guy now, mo williams? wall should do a number on him. jamison? blatche will be used to going against him in practise, i'd wager he has a point to prove after riding the bench behind him. unless they have a secret weapon that im forgetting, they should be one of the worst teams, right on par with toronto.

charlotte id say are better than us marginally. im not sure about new york yet, but i think we may be pretty even with them.

i think todays game was a once-off. atlanta are better than us and shouldnt have too much trouble with us in the reg. milwaukee, well they wont steamroll us into the ground but they are clearly ahead of us as well, Bogut will give our bigs fits.

[hands11]

Sorry to go on so long. For those who don't want to read all that, here's the summary:

Wizards are likley to be inefficient on offense this season. Key players were inefficient last season (Blatche, Arenas, Hinrich). They may struggle with perimeter shooting when Arenas is on the bench.

Wizards are likely to be around the league average defensively (a bit better than last season), although they'll struggle at the center position unless McGee "gets it."

SF looks to be a major weakness on both ends this season.

Only time will tell but my gut says your no seeing things clearly.

I think they will score a lot and defense will impress.

Playoff bound.

Three more preseason game to try some more line ups.

We got the Nick starting at SF and Yi starting at C against ATL.

I expect to see AT up next at SF and expect to see Yi start again.

Booker still needs more burn. So does Seraphin.

Great game against ATL. Great line ups from Flip as far as what he needed to do in preseason.

Another win doesn't hurt a young team at all in the processes. Build confidence that anything is possible with if they play right.

Hopefully Nick great night raises his value. I would be asking around to see what people think he would fetch.

[Wizardspride]

i think todays game was a once-off. atlanta are better than us and shouldnt have too much trouble with us in the reg..

I'm not so sure about that.

I think our newly found athleticism will make these games much closer than you believe.

[hands11]

Teams that are clearly superior:

Orlando
Miami
Chicago
Boston

Teams that are probably better but we could compete with:

Atlanta
Milwaukee

Worst case scenario thats 6 teams better than us. I think we're definitely going to be better than Indiana, Philly, New Jersey, and Toronto. Cleveland is kind of a mystery, they still have some decent players but without Lebron they'll probably collapse. Charlotte and New York are our biggest competitors for the last two playoff spots.

I'm not conceding much just yet. That looks good for now. We are going to get better as the year goes on. We may only get the 7-8 seed but we could easily end up with a better pure ranking them that. We could end up being the 5-6 best team but the record may not reflect that if we get a slower start.

As is, I'm not seeing us get a slow start. Wall J was one of my keys. I'm feeling more confident that he will be an effective mid range shooter. That changes a lot. That one thing is like a 2x multiplier. It effective a lot of things if he can hit that and it looks like he can.

Just imagine 1-2 years from now. I bet he opens it up to 3 range.

[hands11]

i think todays game was a once-off. atlanta are better than us and shouldnt have too much trouble with us in the reg..

I'm not so sure about that.

I think our newly found athleticism will make these games much closer than you believe.

Hell yes. Athleticism was the advantage they had before. Not the case now.

Nice to see McGee work the sky hook again. If he can develop that, it is unstoppable. That is why you don't move this kid. Said it since before we drafted him, he can he something special.

I you could snap your fingers and just 2 years from now...just imagine

[Nivek]

Sorry to go on so long. For those who don't want to read all that, here's the summary:

Wizards are likley to be inefficient on offense this season. Key players were inefficient last season (Blatche, Arenas, Hinrich). They may struggle with perimeter shooting when Arenas is on the bench.

Wizards are likely to be around the league average defensively (a bit better than last season), although they'll struggle at the center position unless McGee "gets it."

SF looks to be a major weakness on both ends this season.

Only time will tell but my gut says your no seeing things clearly.

I hope you're right.

I think they will score a lot and defense will impress.

I think they'll score plenty because they'll run and play at a fast pace. The issue is efficiency, and I don't expect them to be very efficient. I think their defense will be better than the offense this season.

[willbcocks]

Sorry to go on so long. For those who don't want to read all that, here's the summary:

Wizards are likley to be inefficient on offense this season. Key players were inefficient last season (Blatche, Arenas, Hinrich). They may struggle with perimeter shooting when Arenas is on the bench.

Wizards are likely to be around the league average defensively (a bit better than last season), although they'll struggle at the center position unless McGee "gets it."

SF looks to be a major weakness on both ends this season.

i'll put the positive spin on the shorter version.

inefficiency: a penetrating guard makes a world of difference for offensive efficiency. we added 2.

perimeter shooting: when gil's out, nick will be in. shooting is one of the few things he does right.

rebounding: no rebuttal here. we'll suck at boarding.

sf: thornton isn't looking very good and is getting limited minutes. it's a headscratcher. i thought he was at least passable at SF last season, hustling on D and finishing with regularity. i have higher hopes that he will play better once the season comes around than McGee will. if nothing else, Yi can also play sf in a pinch, and Howard is coming back.

bottom line, we're just talking about the NBA playoffs - the EASIEST playoffs to make in any of the 4 major sports. we don't have to win our division. heck, we could even come in dead last in our division (likely). As long as there are 7 teams worse than we are in the East we're in like flynn. Toronto, Jersey, Philly, Cleveland, Toronto, and Detroit are almost locks for the lottery. That just means we have to best 1 other team out of Indy, Philly, and the NYK. I personally believe that even with our weaknesses, we've got so much talent (especially in Gil) that there's no way that Philly can be better than us. We're definitely playoff-bound.

You forgot about Charlotte, who I think is better than we are because of their coaching/veterans/continuity. Also, you miscounted: there's still Miami, Orlando, Boston, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Chicago ahead of us (6 teams). Or maybe both were do to counting Toronto and Philly twice.

Anyway, even if you rule out NJ and Cleveland, which I am not ready to do, we still have to beat out 3 out of 4 of Charlotte, Indy, Philly, and NY. Definitely not definite.