How do you fix this team?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Transition back to serious suggestion on improving the team:

Trade Lewis and Blatche for Hamilton, Ben Wallace, and Charlie V.

Fire Flip and hire monte's suggested big man coach as head coach: Bill Laimbeer

Keep Sam Cassell as an assistant. Keep Ernie Grunfeld. Forgive his past mistakes, because the man's on fire under Leonsis.

Hamilton makes a ton of sense now that Crawford is on board. Nick will get offers in free agency and the Wizards need leverage in case they end up signing and trading Rip. Ben Wallace plays the way we want Seraphin and McGee to play--very focused and strong without fouling. Ben is crazy strong and he has worked well mentoring Greg Monroe.

I think a new training camp with those guys could be special.

[doclinkin]

Quickest fix would be to land a dominant big, however possible. Easier said than done, but that's the only surefire way to turn this squad into a champ contender.

Since players of this stripe are rarely available, that means you have to maximize every opportunity to get them, which generally means to stockpile as many picks as possible, in the near term and every year following. These picks may land you a top calibre Big, but even with multiple picks the odds are implausible. Since it's even more unlikely you land that player in free agency, trades are the best chance you have. Instead of betting on the long odds (nice if it happens, but not a real plan) you do your due diligence to land tantalizing talent with flashy upside, and warehouse the roster with enough depth that you can plausibly swap them out for another team's disgruntled Big. You look like you can afford to trade since you have enough of that guy at that position. YOu are not simply dumping your garbage.

As of now however teams have a pretty shallow roster to stock the arsenal. Deeper drafts with more players and a dedicated hometown minor league team (in the next CBA) will allow a team to stow and stash talent better while still fielding a competent ballclub. Still buy every available pick to draft and stash Euros, and work to create a de facto home team by regularly calling up players on a 10-day from your D=League squad, so talented players will be eager to land on that roster. If a guy plays well, re-up and keep him, hire the hungry guy. But right, if you can affect the CBA to build a true minor league, great.

Until then, and even then, that means you want every edge over the competition in the areas where there is no roster cap nor salary cap: you set out to have the best coaching staff and best scouting crew in any sport. Pay the best, demand the best results. Analyze your methods. Hire an outside eye or two so as not to get caught in your own bias and prejudice. Get scientific about it. Dispassionate at the end of every periodic evaluation. Take inventory. Dump underperforming stock unless you have a clear way to fix it.

Protect your investment: develop the best player care environment possible. Best health facilities, best training rooms, team nutritionists delivering food to player's houses, catering for them when on the road, whatever it takes.

Since good cash flow allows teams to afford the perks and bennies and best support staff, you need to put out a decent product. You have to pull off surprising upset victories on a regular basis even when you are overmatched or undergunned -- especially at home.

'Upset victories' means you need a good player-motivator, on-court or with the clip board or both. Yes they ought to also be a good tactician, but the season is a long campaign and more than anything players look for a leader they want to go to war with. Someone they look up to, enjoy playing for.

One key metric for a good coach: do their teams win the first and third quarters: ie, do they prepare well and adjust well.

And in adding players, upside is only important if you have time, facilities and a staff to train a player. Otherwise you get poor value for results. Granted, you want to design a structure that promotes improvement. Your own personal IMG academy. But you are in the business of winning, ultimately, this is where the money is, when in doubt between a hypertalented underacheiver and an undersized grinder, take the attitude guy. He's not gonna poison the well for the rest of the squad. You would do well to select lynchpin players from winning teams. Tournament teams. Win-or-go-home success. Players who have tasted success of this sort understand that no night club or rental booty can offer anything as sweet as triumph distilled.

For your role players, don't shy away from an upperclassman who already got his partying out of his system. Ultimately fans want a team that wins, and if not, won't embarrass them with negative press or pisspoor effort. Fans love a winner, but they love a scrappy underdog almost as much. There's a reason this area loved Juan Dixon. 6 foot nothing, parents died of drug-contracted HIV, nobody recruited him, but he never gave up, and through personal character and indomitable will, managed to buck the odds. The majority of the world ain't winners nowadays, you just want a chance to knockdown the top guy to mock the frontrunning clowns on your block.

You want to develop brand loyalty from locals at the level of the 'common man' since even the folks in luxury suites pay to see sports in order to feel one of the crowd. No need to pander to them, instead promote your Lambeau field hometown advantage. Your diehard fans who have little but their fanaticism to keep them entertained. Many of these can't afford tickets all that often, much less a season's worth or a ten game plan, but paradoxically if you make them happy you seed your audience with lifelong fanatics who spread the word for free. Promote cheap seaters randomly to lower level seats to ensure that every game you got at least one kid or working guy who is having the night of his life. His enthusiasm will prove infectious to the buttoned up cellphone crowd.

As for this squad: John Wall. Otherwise, consider dumping any leftovers from prior teams who learned how to endure losing and find other distractions that let them pretend it doesn't hurt. Tough to debride that scar tissue. Larry Bird, MJ, Kobe, any of the legendary players all say the same basic quote: losing hurts more than winning feels good. It's not healthy, rational or sane, but that is at the core of developing a championship team. You want to hire the guy who hates to lose; he'll work on his game year 'round, and won't stand for anyone else slacking off. You can't pay him enough that he'll ever get too comfortable to fight.

[Dat2U]

It's not just about getting rid of one or two players or adding one player. It starts at the top with the front office. Ernie is a passable GM but we need to change the culture. Even if we get lucky enough to land that franchise big, we'll probably lose him in a few years because we won't be able to surround him with the right pieces to win a championship and all the while we'll coddle him and create a monster. Like what's happened with LeBron in Cleveland and what's going to happen with Dwight in Orlando would happen here with the Wizards with our current front office.

It's okay to go for the high upside guy occasionally (McGee, Blatche, Young, Seraphin), but you can't have a roster filled with long term prospects with questionable work ethic or low b-ball IQ. Ernie doesn't know how to build a team IMO. He can spot talent and he does try to find players that specifically fit a coach's system but putting a cohesive roster together is not one of his strengths. Neither is establishing a culture of accountability and responsibility. Under Ernie, the inmates have run the asylum. Arenas had free reign to act a fool. Even now, Blatche & McGee act out off the court and half ass it on and off it. Then deflect responsibility whenever they can.

Roster wise, I'd say its time for both Blatche & McGee to go. Before Anderson Varejao got hurt I supported a swap for Blatche b/c Varejao offers some of what we desperately need. Veteran toughness, IQ and work ethic from either the PF or C position. If Varejao checks out health wise this summer, I'd be willing to revisit this possible deal.

With McGee, he's our golden ticket. He's a legit 7-0. He can fill the stat sheet on occasion and he's a highlight reel waiting to happen. He's the one guy we have that other GMs may actually lust after. He could potentially help bring in a legit running mate for John Wall. I definitely wouldn't give him away but by no means should he be untouchable. In fact, outside of John Wall, no one on this roster is untouchable. Including Nick Young. I'd probably give Nick the qualifying offer this off-season but I'd be very hesitant to give him a long term deal unless he came dirt cheap.

[Rafael122]

It's just funny that every time we talk about McGee being traded, the guy blows up for a 16 and 16 game against the Heat (granted the Heat have no bigs) and then has a 6 and 11 game, which isn't bad. The inconsistency and low bball IQ is what kills me.

[doclinkin]

It's not just about getting rid of one or two players or adding one player. It starts at the top with the front office. Ernie is a passable GM but we need to change the culture.

Exactly:

As for this squad: John Wall. Otherwise, consider dumping any leftovers from prior teams who learned how to endure losing.

I've been in the tank for Ernie in the past, but he projects an aggrieved reasonableness when things go awry, with his 'Well, obviously ... [fill in the desired intent, followed by avalanche of impossible circumstances that may or may not have been avoidable]'. Ernie is a pretty good GM, but he stays in a job because he's learned never to buck [so to speak] the owner. The Knicks era Ernie would battle for what he thought was right even when it would offend and defy the fanbase or momentarily affront ownership. He's a pretty good judge of talent, not necessarily a great judge of character and heart. Leastways it's been demonstrated he allows talented players a great length of leash to make mistakes.

It's possible you get a culture change by replacing all players from the era of sustained losing and acceptable asinine behavior, but if there's a viable alternative the probability is you need a fresh start from the top down.

[toughjuice03]

What I don't get is how come everyone is saying trade Blatche? Honestly we seen what he's capable of last year ya he's slumping this year but in order for us to have a future we have to build around bltache,young,and wall.. let them get another year together and we could have a lethal big three IMO..and I don't get all this hate on Thorton if he's giving consistent PT he also could be a very nice piece for the team going forward.

[verbal8]

What I don't get is how come everyone is saying trade Blatche? Honestly we seen what he's capable of last year ya he's slumping this year

It looks a lot more like this season is Blatche demonstrating he is an inefficient high usage player. His play last season and occasional flashes seem to be fool's gold. I don't think it has gotten to "dump him at all costs", but I think it would be a big mistake to try to build around him. I think he may have a role as a back-up C/PF rather than a featured starter at PF.

but in order for us to have a future we have to build around bltache,young,and wall.. let them get another year together and we could have a lethal big three IMO..and I don't get all this hate on Thorton if he's giving consistent PT he also could be a very nice piece for the team going forward.

If Thornton is cheap, I wouldn't mind keeping him around. I don't think he is a huge part of the Wizards problems, but at 27 he doesn't have a ton of upside. He also has a serious limitation of not being a 3 point shooter or a great rebounder. If he was a good rebounder he could play a decent amount as an undersized PF. If he could shoot 3s he could play more at SF.

[willbcocks]

Obviously the odds are against it, but I hope Crawford plays well enough this year that we don't match if someone gives Nick a big offer.

[Dat2U]

Thornton is a volume scoring, non shooting, tunnel vision having SF who's a bad fit with our franchise player. He's not a terrible player but he really offers nothing of value. He doesn't help his team win when he's on the court. I'd rather seek a backup SF who can space the floor and defend on the cheap. Whether its through the draft or the NBDL or on a very modest contract.

[nate33]

If Thornton is cheap, I wouldn't mind keeping him around. I don't think he is a huge part of the Wizards problems, but at 27 he doesn't have a ton of upside. He also has a serious limitation of not being a 3 point shooter or a great rebounder. If he was a good rebounder he could play a decent amount as an undersized PF. If he could shoot 3s he could play more at SF.

Thornton doesn't seem like a bad locker room guy. He's a pro who works hard, plays tough, and doesn't rock the boat. If he was retained for another year, it wouldn't be detrimental to the development of our team. That said, Thornton isn't really a good fit skillwise, and he's not going to get any better in the future. I don't want his salary taking away 2012 cap room that we would otherwise be using to pursue star-caliber free agents.

I'd consider keeping Thornton on a relatively cheap one-year deal, but I absolutely would not offer him a long term contract for anything more than the vet minimum. Since someone else is going to offer more than that, I seriously doubt he'll be on the roster next year

[Spence]

With McGee, he's our golden ticket. He's a legit 7-0. He can fill the stat sheet on occasion and he's a highlight reel waiting to happen. He's the one guy we have that other GMs may actually lust after. He could potentially help bring in a legit running mate for John Wall. I definitely wouldn't give him away but by no means should he be untouchable. In fact, outside of John Wall, no one on this roster is untouchable. Including Nick Young. I'd probably give Nick the qualifying offer this off-season but I'd be very hesitant to give him a long term deal unless he came dirt cheap.

This is what I've been writing, so... +1

[fishercob]

Good stuff from doc and Dat.

[nate33]

What I don't get is how come everyone is saying trade Blatche? Honestly we seen what he's capable of last year ya he's slumping this year but in order for us to have a future we have to build around bltache,young,and wall.. let them get another year together and we could have a lethal big three IMO..and I don't get all this hate on Thorton if he's giving consistent PT he also could be a very nice piece for the team going forward.

"Slumping" this year? His whole career has been a slump except for a 30-game stretch last season.

But the real issue isn't necessarily his production, it's his attitude. He just isn't the kind of guy who would run through a brick wall for his teammates. And offensively, he's a ball-stopper who pouts if he doesn't get enough touches. He definitely has some skills and he could work out well on another team, but not on this one. The problem here is that he has spent some time as the alpha dog and now mistakingly believes he should continue to be the alpha dog; when in reality, he should be a role player.

Just a reminder, here is his TS% for each year of his career:
blatche,a TS%
2010-11 .485
2009-10 .519
2008-09 .508
2007-08 .512
2006-07 .471
2005-06 .450

The NBA average TS% is .541. The average TS% for PF's who play 20+ minutes is .552

[Nivek]

What I don't get is how come everyone is saying trade Blatche? Honestly we seen what he's capable of last year ya he's slumping this year but in order for us to have a future we have to build around bltache,young,and wall.. let them get another year together and we could have a lethal big three IMO..and I don't get all this hate on Thorton if he's giving consistent PT he also could be a very nice piece for the team going forward.

Go back and take another look at what Blatche did last season after the trade. The numbers are superficially good. He scored at a high rate, but with poor efficiency.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Dat, I agree with what you wrote except for McGee. Other GMs want him because they see what McGee WILL become. My advice is change coaches and see if McGee doesn't start putting up 19 and 11 or more rebounds very consistently. McGee does not hold up in the pivot only because he's never on the court with the one player who can, Seraphin. Javale needs to be a Camby/Chandler type player.

I think the best course would be to draft well and move Blatche and Lewis. Utah would probably give away Jefferson for Blatche and Fredette. They might throw in Kirilenko for Lewis.

doc's point about getting a dominant big as the quickest route is well taken. IMO McGee IS a dominant big. He's just slight. Jefferson is better than Blatche by a lot. He's able to block shots, he's a great defensive rebounder, he seldom turns it over, and he is already established.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Short version: Draft Fredette and trade him with Blatche and Lewis for Jefferson and Kirilenko. Also draft and keep Charles Jenkins and/or Norris Cole, or, better Kenneth Faried.

The other pick can be Marshon Brooks.

All three picks are seniors who will come in mature and ready to contribute. I love Fredette's fire but I think Cole is better and so is Jenkins. Many times I've said this, but I have to say again I love the second round picks.

[LyricalRico]

Short version: Draft Fredette and trade him with Blatche and Lewis for Jefferson and Kirilenko.

Aside from AK being an upcoming FA and thus ineligible to be traded, I don't see Utah being interested in Blatche. I put out a trade idea that essentially was Blatche for Jefferson from a Wiz perspective, but IIRC Utah ended up with Haywood.

Lewis and the Atlanta pick for Jefferson+Bell?

[nate33]

I don't think Jefferson is so easily obtainable, but I wonder if Utah would consider a trade based on a Blatche for Okur swap. The idea here is to get us a veteran center with some offensive aptitude, who happens to have a contract that expires in 2012.

[dobrojim]

A real nice fix would be for Booker to shoot 1500 17-footers a day all summer long. If he can become a reliable catch-and-shoot shooter, he'll be Udonis Haslem on a pogo stick.

Hopefully John Wall will be at the other end of the gym doing the same thing all summer long.

After they're both through shooting 17 fters, Wall, as a PG, should really have
a respectable 3 as well. The greater his range, the more uncover-able he becomes.

While Wall is shooting 3s, Booker can shoot FTs.

[sashae]

Nate,

With Bibby bought out and leaving that much money on the table, what does our cap situation for next year end up looking like?