We're gonna kick some tail from now on (Optimism thread)

[closg00]

Here are the Eastern Standings 8th seed and under (1/23)

8th - Boston 20 21 .488 7½
Philadelphia 17 25 .405 11
Detroit 16 25 .390 11 ½
Toronto 15 26 .366 12 ½
Orlando 14 27 .341 13 ½
Cleveland 11 32 .256 17 ½
Charlotte 10 31 .244 17 ½
Washington 9 30 .231 17 ½

My read is that we can catch every team except Detroit and Philly barring major injury.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Here are the Eastern Standings 8th seed and under (1/23)

8th - Boston 20 21 .488 7½
Philadelphia 17 25 .405 11
Detroit 16 25 .390 11 ½
Toronto 15 26 .366 12 ½
Orlando 14 27 .341 13 ½
Cleveland 11 32 .256 17 ½
Charlotte 10 31 .244 17 ½
Washington 9 30 .231 17 ½

My read is that we can catch every team except Detroit and Philly barring major injury.

If the Wizards make the playoffs it will take something like them going 31-12 to end at 40-42, while Boston goes 19-22 to end at 39-43.

The other teams will all also have to finish well over .500 to approach 40 wins. Washington is no more than 5 in the loss column from Detroit and Philly--they can surpass each team from 9 down.

[FreeBalling]

We have 21 Home and 22 Road games left. Today we are 9-30 (.231%). If we went 21-21 (.500%) over the next 42 game that puts us at 31-50 ( I left off one game.). I cannot see this team making the playoffs. We would have to win 40 or more games. It a fun topic but not realistic.

Edit: I picked us to win 38 games. I would love to see us make the playoffs.

[MJG]

The idea of making the playoffs, or even just competing for them, is insane. We'd have to win 70%+ of our games, spanning half a season, to even potentially do it. Winning 70% of your games means you are one of the best three or four teams in the league, a legitimate contender for the championship. Why not go for the gusto and just call us a dark horse for the Larry O'Brien trophy?

[MJG]

[Removing duplicate posts]

[MJG]

[Removing duplicate posts]

[doclinkin]

bump for dlts

[dlts20]

I just looked at our sked. I have us just on a flat out face win basis going 25-17 over the last 42. That puts us at 34-48 on the season. Thats not including us playing so well that I think we may can still a few other games but even if not, it wouldnt shock me to see the 8th seed make it at 39 wins so this is what I meant when I said we would make it or come close. I was literally thinking of missing it by 5 games or so. There is no doubt in my mind that if we stay "relatively" healthy that we will get to 34 wins or so, if not more.

Do you guys doubt us doing that? The only part that sucks is weve had some very winnable games and didnt take advantage so now we are getting healthy but have harder games. Still I think we no doubt will get into that range

[cwb3]

At least we are not the Lakers!

[Severn Hoos]

Looking at how the team has played since Wall came back (or, more precisely, the OKC game - one game before Wall came back), I have no doubt whatsoever that with a healthy Wall and Nene they are a playoff team, and would/will play at least .500 ball. (Whether "a healthy Wall and Nene" was ever a good bet is another issue...) From 4-28, I am quite confident that they will (again, barring injuries/health setbacks) go at least .500 - which would mean 29 wins. They're already 5-2 as a start to the last 50 games. Too bad there wasn't an NBA work stoppage instead of NHL, the Wiz might have been a playoff team this year...

Now, this is not to say that they'll be a contender, although I think they could certainly exceed .500 for the last 50 games of the season. And I also believe very strongly that they are better than all of the following Eastern teams: Charlotte, Orlando, Toronto, Cleveland, and Detroit. That would put them in 10th place, and they would only have to "catch" any two from among Philly, Milwaukee, Boston, and Atlanta to be in the Playoffs. If they would have had a full season from all of their players, I have no doubt they would have made the top 8, after seeing the improved play from Okafor, Beal, and Webster in particular.

Now - this is NOT to give an endorsement to the Okariza trade, but I think it does "validate" the first step of the logic behind it, as best I can piece together. I believe the team looked at Wall and realized they have a former #1 overall with a unique skillset and tantalizing potential, but just don't know yet whether he is or will be a truly elite player. He will undoubtedly ask for a MAX extension - should they give it to him?

I think the plan all along was in fact to get into the playoffs - to compete for the 8th seed - as much as that notion is mocked around here. For one, it would give the younger players experience playing in meaningful games. As mentioned elsewhere, teams don't typically jump to contender status without going through the "fringe playoff team" phase. The trick is not to stay in that phase forever (Bucks, Sixers, Jazz, the list goes on and on).

But the real benefit for the team would be to see how Wall plays in games that matter. Let him have a few end-of-season games where the postseason berth is on the line, not unlike the Redskins-Cowboys game this year. Then, if they do get into the playoffs, see how Wall handles going up against a veteran team like the Pacers or Knicks (hopefully not the Heat), where the opponent is waiting for him and gets to play an entire series, including all of the adjustments that come with it. If you never get to see Wall in that situation, just how comfortable are you giving him a MAX contract?

So again, I'm not endorsing the strategy, but I think that they would have achieved those (admittedly modest) goals had they not lost their two most important players for the first third of the season.

And even then - when you look at the game logs of those 28 losses, 5 of them were 20+ point blowouts. The aggregate point differential in those 5 games was greater than the point differential in the other 23 games combined. They did in fact play a lot of close games - games where they couldn't close out the opponent in large part because they ran out of gas, or simply didn't have a "closer". Factor in the 5 OT losses, plus a few others that were very close, and they could easily have been 12-20 or so rather than 4-28.

A playoff berth now would be even more stunning than the Redskins' turnaround from 3-6, and that's saying a lot. Maybe they'll make a bold move, go after a big name, or whatever. But as I watch the rest of this season, I will remain convinced that this is a playoff team (if only just) that got derailed by injuries. Cold comfort, I know, but they are significantly better than their record. Maybe we can enjoy 3 months of being the spoiler...

[Nivek]

Wrote about whether the Wizards could make the playoffs over at the blog yesterday.

Sev's kinda right that it's probably a bit more improbable than the Skins reaching the playoffs from 3-6. I point out in the blog, that the NBA equivalent to the Skins 7-game winning streak is a 35-36 game win streak. Longest NBA win streak ever is 33 games. But, Wizards don't need to win 35 in a row to make the playoffs. They merely need to go ~31-11.

[Higga]

No chance the Wiz make the playoffs Can't compare to the NFL because the way the scheduling worked, the Skins had five of their last seven against division rivals.

We're gonna end up playing ourselves out of a top 3 pick. Oh well, hopefully whoever we do get can play and we can make a push to the playoffs next year. I thought we were a fringe 8 seed type team with a healthy Wall, that's what we look like now more or less.

[LyricalRico]

Now - this is NOT to give an endorsement to the Okariza trade, but I think it does "validate" the first step of the logic behind it, as best I can piece together. I believe the team looked at Wall and realized they have a former #1 overall with a unique skillset and tantalizing potential, but just don't know yet whether he is or will be a truly elite player. He will undoubtedly ask for a MAX extension - should they give it to him?

I think the plan all along was in fact to get into the playoffs - to compete for the 8th seed - as much as that notion is mocked around here. For one, it would give the younger players experience playing in meaningful games. As mentioned elsewhere, teams don't typically jump to contender status without going through the "fringe playoff team" phase. The trick is not to stay in that phase forever (Bucks, Sixers, Jazz, the list goes on and on).

But the real benefit for the team would be to see how Wall plays in games that matter. Let him have a few end-of-season games where the postseason berth is on the line, not unlike the Redskins-Cowboys game this year. Then, if they do get into the playoffs, see how Wall handles going up against a veteran team like the Pacers or Knicks (hopefully not the Heat), where the opponent is waiting for him and gets to play an entire series, including all of the adjustments that come with it. If you never get to see Wall in that situation, just how comfortable are you giving him a MAX contract?

So again, I'm not endorsing the strategy, but I think that they would have achieved those (admittedly modest) goals had they not lost their two most important players for the first third of the season.

OTOH, I actually have endorsed that strategy from the beginning, and I've always thought that many here undervalued what a big step going from second-worst last year to making the playoffs the following year would be for this team. Let's hope that opportunity hasn't completely evaporated.

[tontoz]

I was going to put this in the optimism thread and literally went 28 pages deep but still couldnt find it.

Google is your friend.

Seriously though there is no way this team makes the playoffs. They are too offensively challenged.

[dobrojim]

IDK.

The way they share the ball of late has been a revelation. Who knows?
It may even begin to seep into the play of Craw and keVEEN over time.

They're scoring these days.

[Nivek]

To your point, Jim...offensive ratings (pts produced per possessions x 100) and usage rates for the team over the past 10 games:

Code: Select all

Player  ORTG    Usg
Webster 129     17.4%
Vesely  127     13.5%
Price   121     17.2%
Beal    111     18.7%
Craw    109     20.0%
Temple  107     12.1%
Okafor  107     18.6%
Wall    105     30.5%
Nene    97      23.8%
Ariza   93      14.7%
Booker  93      13.4%
Serphn  85      23.0%
Sngltn  58      13.2%


Wall and Serpahin are the only higher-usage guys. Wall fairly efficient despite bad shooting and turnovers; Seraphin still inefficient. Crawford's usage way down and his efficiency way up. Not a coincidence.

[dobrojim]

Notable to me is how LOW Nene's ORTG is at this time.

Guessing that over his career, it's typically been significantly
better than that.

[Nivek]

Yeah, Nene is typically far more efficient. He's also been a bit lower usage throughout his career. Even with the lower efficiency over the past 10, his ortg for the season is still 106, which is a bit above average.

[MDStar]

Quick shoutout to the development of one Mr. John Wall.

In 11 less minutes per, it is evident to me that he has taken a step up with his game. Now he may not be a superstar but he's certainly playing like an allstar. Which to me was the next step in his progression.

2012- 2013 (Per 36 min)

Pts - 20.3
Ast - 9.6
Reb - 3.5
Stls - 1.3
Blks -1.3
FG% - 43.6%
Per - 20.96

Career (36.2 MPG)

Pts - 16.2
Ast - 8.1
Reb - 4.4
Stls - 1.6
Blks - .7
FG% - 41.7%
Per - 15.8 (10/11) , 17.7 (11/12)

[AFM]

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