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How Big Is Your Tank

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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#81 » by sfam » Tue Apr 16, 2013 11:34 am

hands11 wrote:4-9 and eye balling a 4-10 finish.

Not bad tanking for a team that was playing over .500 ball

Tank early.
Get your grove going mid season. Beat the playoff teams. Lose to the lottery teams.
Then tank down the stretch.

Perfect.

Wall breaks out
Beal breaks out
You found Webster
Trevor A and Okafor both produced
Culture change
Defense

Objectively, I think you would have to call that a successful season for this stage of the rebuild.
The two most important questions mostly got answered and that was Wall and Beal

+1

Wall and Beal give us hope. Hopefully EG doesn't screw the pooch with this draft pick. The tank gives us a chance at getting a solid contributor.
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#82 » by nate33 » Tue Apr 16, 2013 11:47 am

hands11 wrote:4-9 and eye balling a 4-10 finish.

Not bad tanking for a team that was playing over .500 ball

Tank early.
Get your grove going mid season. Beat the playoff teams. Lose to the lottery teams.
Then tank down the stretch.

Perfect.

Wall breaks out
Beal breaks out
You found Webster
Trevor A and Okafor both produced
Culture change
Defense

Objectively, I think you would have to call that a successful season for this stage of the rebuild.
The two most important questions mostly got answered and that was Wall and Beal

I gotta agree. If we're going to tank, this tanking plan beats most. The main problem is that at the end of it all, Okafor and Nene are still on the wrong side of 30. If Nene gets healthy and can have three strong years at least as good as he played last season, then it'll work out, but I consider that unlikely.
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#83 » by Nivek » Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:30 pm

Y'all are giving the Wizards too much credit. They weren't trying to tank this season -- they thought they'd be in the playoffs. Here's who was most shocked by the Wizards 4-28 start: Ernie Grunfeld.
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#84 » by TGW » Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:45 pm

Nivek wrote:Y'all are giving the Wizards too much credit. They weren't trying to tank this season -- they thought they'd be in the playoffs. Here's who was most shocked by the Wizards 4-28 start: Ernie Grunfeld.


Thank you.

Anyone who thinks this season was a "success" is as delusional as Ted and Ernie. Any good franchise would have fired the entire staff after a season like this...not the Wizards. They consider 29 wins as progress...because they only won 23 the year before.

And what stage of the rebuild are the Wizards in? They have two good young guards (and good is about as far as you can go with it) and an old, beatup frontcourt. The don't have one young big worth building around, and in typical Wizards fashion, they're going to spend a load resigning a guy who had a decent contract year in Webster.
Some random troll wrote:Not to sound negative, but this team is owned by an arrogant cheapskate, managed by a moron and coached by an idiot. Recipe for disaster.
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#85 » by nate33 » Tue Apr 16, 2013 2:06 pm

Nivek wrote:Y'all are giving the Wizards too much credit. They weren't trying to tank this season -- they thought they'd be in the playoffs. Here's who was most shocked by the Wizards 4-28 start: Ernie Grunfeld.

Oh, I agree. Perhaps I shouldn't have said tanking "plan" because it absolutely was not planned. But the tank "path" is pretty ideal from a perspective of maximizing losses while still providing a sense of optimism that the team is pretty good.
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#86 » by montestewart » Tue Apr 16, 2013 2:07 pm

Nivek wrote:Y'all are giving the Wizards too much credit. They weren't trying to tank this season -- they thought they'd be in the playoffs. Here's who was most shocked by the Wizards 4-28 start: Ernie Grunfeld.

I think it was Leonsis. I know it wasn't me.
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#87 » by Jay81 » Tue Apr 16, 2013 2:14 pm

i feel bad for NBA fans buying tickets to these last 2-3 games of any NBA team that have nothing to play for. Wow...its like watching week 1 of preseason NFL football
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#88 » by sfam » Tue Apr 16, 2013 2:43 pm

Nivek wrote:Y'all are giving the Wizards too much credit. They weren't trying to tank this season -- they thought they'd be in the playoffs. Here's who was most shocked by the Wizards 4-28 start: Ernie Grunfeld.

While I agree, imagine where we'd be if Wall never broke out and Beal's shooting stayed like it was the first half of the season? We could been in a far different place. The only benefit of that potential present is we'd all believe EG would be gone after the ChiTown game. As it stands, EG gets one more year, and we have expectations of a mid-round playoff spot next year.
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#89 » by nate33 » Tue Apr 16, 2013 3:02 pm

Jay81 wrote:i feel bad for NBA fans buying tickets to these last 2-3 games of any NBA team that have nothing to play for. Wow...its like watching week 1 of preseason NFL football

Fans should already know that the last 2-3 games can often be pretty meaningless (both for winning teams and losing teams).
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#90 » by montestewart » Tue Apr 16, 2013 3:28 pm

nate33 wrote:
Jay81 wrote:i feel bad for NBA fans buying tickets to these last 2-3 games of any NBA team that have nothing to play for. Wow...its like watching week 1 of preseason NFL football

Fans should already know that the last 2-3 games can often be pretty meaningless (both for winning teams and losing teams).

But not for the Wizards! They're either grasping at 8th seed (their version of championship) or jockeying for lottery position. Good to the last drop!
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#91 » by Nivek » Tue Apr 16, 2013 3:52 pm

nate33 wrote:
Nivek wrote:Y'all are giving the Wizards too much credit. They weren't trying to tank this season -- they thought they'd be in the playoffs. Here's who was most shocked by the Wizards 4-28 start: Ernie Grunfeld.

Oh, I agree. Perhaps I shouldn't have said tanking "plan" because it absolutely was not planned. But the tank "path" is pretty ideal from a perspective of maximizing losses while still providing a sense of optimism that the team is pretty good.


Yeah, "path" is a much better word. Even then, I dunno. It seems like a high-quality tank path would leave the team with a better likelihood of getting a top 3 pick. The odds of getting a future All-Star are best at the top of the draft and drop precipitously after the 5th pick in most drafts. There are always good players found later in the draft, but the Wizards front office hasn't shown a propensity for finding those guys. They were about average as drafters last I ran the numbers.
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#92 » by Jay81 » Tue Apr 16, 2013 5:59 pm

Nivek wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Nivek wrote:Y'all are giving the Wizards too much credit. They weren't trying to tank this season -- they thought they'd be in the playoffs. Here's who was most shocked by the Wizards 4-28 start: Ernie Grunfeld.

Oh, I agree. Perhaps I shouldn't have said tanking "plan" because it absolutely was not planned. But the tank "path" is pretty ideal from a perspective of maximizing losses while still providing a sense of optimism that the team is pretty good.


Yeah, "path" is a much better word. Even then, I dunno. It seems like a high-quality tank path would leave the team with a better likelihood of getting a top 3 pick. The odds of getting a future All-Star are best at the top of the draft and drop precipitously after the 5th pick in most drafts. There are always good players found later in the draft, but the Wizards front office hasn't shown a propensity for finding those guys. They were about average as drafters last I ran the numbers.


average drafters? thats amazingly higher than I would of thought originally
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#93 » by nate33 » Tue Apr 16, 2013 6:54 pm

Jay81 wrote:average drafters? thats amazingly higher than I would of thought originally

Nivek has done some nice research on this. I think it's buried in the Jan Vesley thread (not the Vesely is a bust thread). Essentially, when EG has actually utilized the pick, he has been okay, not good, but not awful either. Now, the study didn't include the Deng (potentially) for Jamison trade, or the Curry (potentially) for Mike Miller trade. But when we actually pick, it's okay. Pecherov and Vesely were awful. Blatche and McGee were pretty good. Young was okay. Booker was pretty good. Seraphin, not so much.
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#94 » by Nivek » Tue Apr 16, 2013 7:08 pm

As bad as Seraphin has been, his one average season might be enough to make him a pretty typical 17th pick. I'd need to update my draft research to say that with more conviction. It's possible, though.

It's amazing how much quality drops as you move down the draft board. There are productive players that can be gotten later in virtually every draft, but odds of getting a good player are better at the top.

Also, one thing to keep in mind when talking about Grunfeld being an average drafter -- he's competing against other NBA GMs.
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#95 » by Kanyewest » Tue Apr 16, 2013 8:43 pm

sfam wrote:
Nivek wrote:Y'all are giving the Wizards too much credit. They weren't trying to tank this season -- they thought they'd be in the playoffs. Here's who was most shocked by the Wizards 4-28 start: Ernie Grunfeld.

While I agree, imagine where we'd be if Wall never broke out and Beal's shooting stayed like it was the first half of the season? We could been in a far different place. The only benefit of that potential present is we'd all believe EG would be gone after the ChiTown game. As it stands, EG gets one more year, and we have expectations of a mid-round playoff spot next year.


Also, I imagined they had Nene was healthy to start the season. But yeah, some of the picks have been pretty dissapointing (Vesley/Singleton). EG gets one more year but probably should have been let go in 2010.
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#96 » by Severn Hoos » Tue Apr 16, 2013 9:17 pm

I always hear the Bee Gees in my head when I see the title of this thread.



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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#97 » by fishercob » Tue Apr 16, 2013 9:34 pm

Severn Hoos wrote:I always hear the Bee Gees in my head when I see the title of this thread.



You're Welcome.


Okay, I swear -- SWEAR -- that I clicked on this thread thinking about posting the same thing.





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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#98 » by hands11 » Wed Apr 17, 2013 10:53 am

nate33 wrote:
hands11 wrote:4-9 and eye balling a 4-10 finish.

Not bad tanking for a team that was playing over .500 ball

Tank early.
Get your grove going mid season. Beat the playoff teams. Lose to the lottery teams.
Then tank down the stretch.

Perfect.

Wall breaks out
Beal breaks out
You found Webster
Trevor A and Okafor both produced
Culture change
Defense

Objectively, I think you would have to call that a successful season for this stage of the rebuild.
The two most important questions mostly got answered and that was Wall and Beal

I gotta agree. If we're going to tank, this tanking plan beats most. The main problem is that at the end of it all, Okafor and Nene are still on the wrong side of 30. If Nene gets healthy and can have three strong years at least as good as he played last season, then it'll work out, but I consider that unlikely.


Unlikely ? We will see. I feel pretty confident he will come back a lot more healthy then he was this year. The fact that he didn't get the rest he needed over last summer never gave him any chance of being healthy this season. And he paid the price in pain and production.

Now I think he will be focused on getting his body right. Nene made an emotion decision to play in the Olympics and I think it was the wrong one. But he is no dummy. I fully expect him to do the right things this off season. So come next year, we should have a much better idea of what he will have moving forward.

If I were to make a guess as to what I think he will look like to start next year, I would guess he is going to look energetic, focused and determined. I also expect to see an effective mid range shot. He has a lot of work to put in but I think he will get there.

But even injured, I think Nene added the vet stability to the front court and the team that was needed. Along with Okafor, Trevor A and Webster.

But like I said, I big part of what got accomplished this year was Wall and Beal maturing. They are the ones that need to acquire that vet leadership knowledge so the team can move forward and not be rudderless without players like Nene and Okafor on it.

There are a lot of level to climb from being a blown up rock bottom franchise. They made progress this year. Stuff that will stick like Beal understanding how to play in the NBA and having a wet stoke from 3. Also, the team now has a defensive focus.

Wall and Beal both probably need another year under their belts before they are really at that level that they can start to take the training wheels off of them. Once that happens, the team will have a lot more flexibility to add and move parts because it will have two solid starters to build off of.

Wall needs to keep working on his J and add 3 range.
Beal needs to get healthy and add better handles.
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#99 » by jivelikenice » Wed Apr 17, 2013 4:20 pm

Nivek wrote:As bad as Seraphin has been, his one average season might be enough to make him a pretty typical 17th pick. I'd need to update my draft research to say that with more conviction. It's possible, though.

It's amazing how much quality drops as you move down the draft board. There are productive players that can be gotten later in virtually every draft, but odds of getting a good player are better at the top.

Also, one thing to keep in mind when talking about Grunfeld being an average drafter -- he's competing against other NBA GMs.


I don't have an issue with the '10 draft. Seraphin seems to fit in well for where he was taken and Booker the same. My issue if with their mentality, but that's the problem when the roster is full of guys on rookie deals in their early development. You have players like Seraphin and Booker blaming minutes and not blaming their lack of consistency for thier up & down minutes. To be fair to Booker, injuries have also played a role but it did irk me that he commented that minutes are holding him back. He has had opportunities, but hasn't played consistently, hasn't stayed healthy, and has been bad on defense.
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Re: How Big Is Your Tank 

Post#100 » by nate33 » Wed Apr 17, 2013 4:38 pm

I don't have a problem with Booker's comments. I didn't really see it as him blaming coaching for his lack of minutes. He was just stating the truism that it's hard to develop a rhythm if your minutes are inconsistent. I think Booker himself would acknowledge why the available minutes were inconsistent. It was a combination of his performance, his injuries, the play of others, and the matchups Wittman was trying to exploit.

I still like Booker the most out of the four young bigs on the team.

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