Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VI

[jivelikenice]

^Agree there on MKG, but I don't think Otto's desire is questioned either. If anything its more proven considering the leap from yr 1 to yr 2, him going from a role player to putting the team on his back, and standing out on an offense/team that doesn't always lend itself to that.

[sfam]

From Ford's draft blog regarding Zeller:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog/_/n ... eff-withey

Zeller, however, decided to enter the draft and he's spent the past month in Santa Monica doing what scouts have asked -- he's honing his jump shot and ball-handling skills to make the leap from center to forward.

Zeller, for his part, claims that he's always had these skills. As a high school player, he regularly played on the perimeter and took 3s. He said he made three 3-pointers during one game his senior season. However, at Indiana, head coach Tom Crean wanted Zeller in the post and that's where he stayed. As a freshman he took just 27 percent of his shots outside the basket area. As a sophomore he upped it slightly to 34 percent.

What makes him think he can do it differently now?

Zeller told us at the NBA Draft combine we'd be surprised by his shooting and he backed up that claim on Thursday. I tracked his NBA 3-point shots and he shot 72 percent for the workout. That's terrific, especially for a 7-footer. His mid-range jumper was even better. Zeller showed the ability to shoot off the bounce and with his feet set. He was especially effective in the corners where he shot 80 percent from the field for the day.

Combine that small sample with other known qualities of Zeller -- he's the fastest big man in the draft (both laterally and in sprints), has the highest standing vertical (35.5") of any player 6-foot-9 or taller in our database, great hands and a high basketball IQ -- and the question is: did Zeller go from being overrated to underrated?

Zeller should definitely be considered with the #3. He might be special. I still have Bennett ahead of him but would be very happy if we drafted him, even more so than Porter. At this point its clear we will be getting a solid upgrade whomever we pick.

[jivelikenice]

If we do decide on Zeller or anyone else outside of Porter/ Bennett/ McLemore/ or Noels, we need to move down a couple of spots and pick up an asset.

[Ruzious]

In before the collective "we're trading the @#*$&% second round picks!" meltdown.

The wiretap story really isn't anything new. EG already made the brilliant proclamation that he doesn't want more than 2 rookies.

[popper]

From Ford's draft blog regarding Zeller:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog/_/n ... eff-withey

Zeller, however, decided to enter the draft and he's spent the past month in Santa Monica doing what scouts have asked -- he's honing his jump shot and ball-handling skills to make the leap from center to forward.

Zeller, for his part, claims that he's always had these skills. As a high school player, he regularly played on the perimeter and took 3s. He said he made three 3-pointers during one game his senior season. However, at Indiana, head coach Tom Crean wanted Zeller in the post and that's where he stayed. As a freshman he took just 27 percent of his shots outside the basket area. As a sophomore he upped it slightly to 34 percent.

What makes him think he can do it differently now?

Zeller told us at the NBA Draft combine we'd be surprised by his shooting and he backed up that claim on Thursday. I tracked his NBA 3-point shots and he shot 72 percent for the workout. That's terrific, especially for a 7-footer. His mid-range jumper was even better. Zeller showed the ability to shoot off the bounce and with his feet set. He was especially effective in the corners where he shot 80 percent from the field for the day.

Combine that small sample with other known qualities of Zeller -- he's the fastest big man in the draft (both laterally and in sprints), has the highest standing vertical (35.5") of any player 6-foot-9 or taller in our database, great hands and a high basketball IQ -- and the question is: did Zeller go from being overrated to underrated?

Zeller should definitely be considered with the #3. He might be special. I still have Bennett ahead of him but would be very happy if we drafted him, even more so than Porter. At this point its clear we will be getting a solid upgrade whomever we pick.

Assuming Zeller can play PF he would be a great pick. Most minutes at backup PF and then some at backup center when needed. Because of injuries, players that are serviceable at 2 positions have added value as far as I'm concerned.

[sfam]

From Ford's draft blog regarding Zeller:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog/_/n ... eff-withey

Zeller should definitely be considered with the #3. He might be special. I still have Bennett ahead of him but would be very happy if we drafted him, even more so than Porter. At this point its clear we will be getting a solid upgrade whomever we pick.

Assuming Zeller can play PF he would be a great pick. Most minutes at backup PF and then some at backup center when needed. Because of injuries, players that are serviceable at 2 positions have added value as far as I'm concerned.

Agreed. I'd love it if we could get a high quality 4 out of this. Bennett may have a better star potential, but Zeller could also play the Chris Bosh 5 in a small ball lineup.

[jivelikenice]

In before the collective "we're trading the @#*$&% second round picks!" meltdown.

The wiretap story really isn't anything new. EG already made the brilliant proclamation that he doesn't want more than 2 rookies.

Yeah, nothing new. I wouldn't mind if the 2nd rounders were consolidated to either move up into Rd 1 (along with a young pf on our team) or used as bait for a younger vet. The only scenarios that would infuriate me would be 1. selling the pick(s); or 2. trading for an OLD vet.

[sfam]

If we do decide on Zeller or anyone else outside of Porter/ Bennett/ McLemore/ or Noels, we need to move down a couple of spots and pick up an asset.

The problem with a parity of talent is it will be really hard to do this. More than likely our trade down possibilities will leave us outside the top 10. Why would Sactown want to give an asset to move up a few spots when they might get just as high a quality player at #7?

[WizarDynasty]

WizDynasty- A couple of points that you have me confused on:
1. Playing through contact can improve as you gain strength. Otto did 9 reps which isn't bad at all considering his frame and shows he is likely stronger than he looks. Considering he's 19, I'm not worried about his ability to improve in this area.

2. Ball Handling. You mentioned it doesn't matter because he's not an explosive athlete? What are you saying; that you can only be an effecitve ball handler is your an explosive athlete?

Edit...A lot of examples of his finishing through contact in these highlight packages. Obviously these are highlights so they don't show when he struggles with it, but it shows the ability is there and he can improve.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0CwehqX-n0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0CwehqX-n0

strength really isn't what determines if a player can finish through contact. It the ability to force a defender to foul and in addition to forcing the defender to foul you also finish.

Finishing through contact is making a move against a perfectly positioned defender and somehow getting that defender into a position that he must foul you to prevent you from scoring. Not only does he successfully foul you but you score anyway. That is the definition of finishing through contact.
Footwork, body control to fake a defender into the wrong position, reflexes, hand size, leverage, explosiveness, all go come into play. Its very hard to put a label on all the components that go into forcing a perfectly position defender at the start of the play into fouling you. Many elements have to come together but the players who showed this ability consistently in college are wizards material. If you didn't show it in college, you aren't wizard material plain and simple.
YOu should never expect a player who didn't consistently show this ability in college to show it consistently int he pros. Amateurs are playing against other amateurs.
Ability to draw fouls and finish consistently..this trait is always seen CONSISTENTLY before a player enters the NBA. Almost never has a player magically become consistent at finishing through contact in pros and not showing the same consistency in college.
trying to rationalize that he will gain this ability with weight training is the reason why the Wizards are bottom dwellers. The ability to finish through contact CONSISTENTLY is a basic skills that either you have or you don't. It's just like rebounding. Never has a player been horrible or average rebounder in college and magically transformed into an elite rebounder in the NBA.
GM's always want to rationalize picking a player who doesn't have 2 of the three criteria for being a wizards with all bigmen absolutely must have lower body strength and exceptional rebounding in college...in addition to two the of the three criteria.
The wizards have turned a new page and they aren't going back to being bottom dwellers. We have standards for what defines a wizard player in the new Leonsis era.
People who have watched Porter know if he consistently finished through contact in college. If he did consistently finished, he is wizard material because i think he has at least average body control with the basketball although that is debatable. I know for sure he is definitely not an explosive athlete which means he absolutely has to be elite at finishing through contact---meaning he is fouled all the time and refs don't call it and he still finishes...in addition...he absolutely must have elite body control with the basketball...meaning when he has the ball he is full control of his body and he is able to get defenders out of position with excellent coordination from shot fakes, hesitation dribbles, headfakes and spins, you name it but him and the basketball are one. He must be elite in both of these categories to make up for having no explosiveness.

the key word is Consistently demonstrates...not occasionally demonstrates. Very big difference. Finishing with no one between you and basketball or defender means absolutely squat. If a defender is waiting for you and you still finish consistently finishing and that defender is great position and you still finish...you only need to meet one other criteria to be a wizard. Explosiveness or Excellent Body control with the basketball.

[verbal8]

In before the collective "we're trading the @#*$&% second round picks!" meltdown.

The wiretap story really isn't anything new. EG already made the brilliant proclamation that he doesn't want more than 2 rookies.

Yeah, nothing new. I wouldn't mind if the 2nd rounders were consolidated to either move up into Rd 1 (along with a young pf on our team) or used as bait for a younger vet. The only scenarios that would infuriate me would be 1. selling the pick(s); or 2. trading for an OLD vet.

Selling the 54th pick wouldn't bother me too much, although I think a guy like Erik Murphy would be worth looking at even if he doesn't make the team. I also don't think trading it would yield more than a minimum salary vet, so there really is a limit to the amount of damage that could be done there. Trading it for a future 2nd would be a brilliant move, so I don't think that is too likely to happen.

The 38th pick is a little bit more of a risk, since there is a decent possibility of picking up a rotation player at that point. Also the possibility of packaging it with one of Ernie's kids for a worse situation contract/production-wise.

[dobrojim]

have not caught up since yesterday (man this thread moves fast)
but I was thinking while watching the 1st half IND@MIA last night
that maybe it is imperative for EC teams to have uber talent at the 3.
Right now in order to get anywhere in the post-season, you need to
be competitive against the likes of Bron (good luck with that), Melo
and Paul George. Dat may have a point about the NBA as a whole
but the elite teams in the east all have studs at the 3 whether they
always are playing at the 3 or not. Having someone with a ghost of
a prayer of defending them as well as making them defend seems
like a necessity moreso than a luxury.

So with that said, maybe CLE does take OP first. After reading the latest
on Zeller, maybe he should be the pick if OP is gone.

what seemed simple at one time is becoming more and more complicated.

[verbal8]

what seemed simple at one time is becoming more and more complicated.

It was simple at 8.

Otto - falling was wishful thinking
Oladipo - great talent, poor fit and almost no chance of him being available
Bennett - falling, unlikely but would be a great opportunity
Len falling possible and again a great pick
McCollum might be there and might be the BPA
Zeller - probably available and a good fit if no one better was available
Shabazz Muhammad - kind of the "Bennett of the 8th pick" - should be an NBA player and you can make a case, but should be better options available

[tontoz]

EG doesn't want 3 rookies on the roster but he is apparently OK with having two garbage cans (Ves,CS).

[nate33]

If we do decide on Zeller or anyone else outside of Porter/ Bennett/ McLemore/ or Noels, we need to move down a couple of spots and pick up an asset.

The problem with a parity of talent is it will be really hard to do this. More than likely our trade down possibilities will leave us outside the top 10. Why would Sactown want to give an asset to move up a few spots when they might get just as high a quality player at #7?

Trading down might make a lot of sense if Porter is gone at #3 and we like Zeller.

Let's assume Porter and Noel go 1, 2. What are the chances that Zeller lasts until the late lottery?

3: Washington
4: Charlotte - won't take him over Oladipo, McLemore and Bennett
5: Phoenix - won't take him over Oladipo, McLemore and Bennett
6: New Orleans - won't take him with Davis and Anderson already on roster
7: Sacramento - maybe
8: Detroit - don't need front court help
9: Minnesota - Love and Williams already play PF
10: Portland - their franchise player plays PF
11: Philly - won't slip past here

We would be able to trade down pretty far and still have a shot at him. The only concern is Sacramento. Of course, other trades could throw a monkey wrench into this. I wouldn't trade all the way down to #10 and assume he'd still be there. I do think we could trade down as far as 7 though.

Other teams might do it for the opportunity to draft McLemore. I'm sure Minnesota would be thrilled to move up to #3. Sacramento might be too. If nothing else, we should leak that we are talking to these teams about trade downs to make Charlotte and Phoenix nervous. If Charlotte or Phoenix wants McLemore or Oladipo, they can't just assume that they won't get drafted at #3.

[pancakes3]

Well the beauty of trading down is that even if Zeller is taken, Len or Adams are still very good consolation prizes for a teens pick.

Also, I think Sac pushes hard for a SF.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Lot of bad info in the Aldridge articles BTW. He's just reporting what he hears, but those personnel men are lying their butts off to him. I caught a couple of pretty obvious plants in the Zeller section like, "He's not as good as his brother Tyler" and, "He'll need to be familiar with the NBA 3 point line."

Everyone acknowledges he's better than Tyler, that's pretty obvious. And it's also obvious that most NBA bigs can't shoot threes and that is never a requirement for the position.

Teams are obfuscating to try and gain competitive advantages in the draft. Same thing happens every year with the NFL draft.

It hurt my head to read that crap. I like Aldridge but the guys he's talking to offer some incredibly poor analysis. I kept asking myself, how do these people have jobs???

They knew someone, had a family connection, or got their entry by being former players--popularity got them jobs and keeps them being hired, fired, and reemployed.

There are people who can do much better but who will forever be on the outside looking in.

[verbal8]

If we do decide on Zeller or anyone else outside of Porter/ Bennett/ McLemore/ or Noels, we need to move down a couple of spots and pick up an asset.

The problem with a parity of talent is it will be really hard to do this. More than likely our trade down possibilities will leave us outside the top 10. Why would Sactown want to give an asset to move up a few spots when they might get just as high a quality player at #7?

Trading down might make a lot of sense if Porter is gone at #3 and we like Zeller.

Let's assume Porter and Noel go 1, 2. What are the chances that Zeller lasts until the late lottery?

3: Washington
4: Charlotte - won't take him over Oladipo, McLemore and Bennett
5: Phoenix - won't take him over Oladipo, McLemore and Bennett
6: New Orleans - won't take him with Davis and Anderson already on roster
7: Sacramento - maybe
8: Detroit - don't need front court help
9: Minnesota - Love and Williams already play PF
10: Portland - their franchise player plays PF
11: Philly - won't slip past here

We would be able to trade down pretty far and still have a shot at him. The only concern is Sacramento. Of course, other trades could throw a monkey wrench into this. I wouldn't trade all the way down to #10 and assume he'd still be there. I do think we could trade down as far as 7 though.

Other teams might do it for the opportunity to draft McLemore. I'm sure Minnesota would be thrilled to move up to #3. Sacramento might be too. If nothing else, we should leak that we are talking to these teams about trade downs to make Charlotte and Phoenix nervous. If Charlotte or Phoenix wants McLemore or Oladipo, they can't just assume that they won't get drafted at #3.

I think New Orleans and Minn are the most obvious trade down partners. New Orleans also has their 2014 1st. I think it would have protection, but it is not a bad incentive. Also I think Len(or even Bennett) is a good back-up option if Zeller gets picked earlier than expected.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

EG doesn't want 3 rookies on the roster but he is apparently OK with having two garbage cans (Ves,CS).

I wish Ted, EG, and Wittman were sharper and not self-protective, closed-minded, people. They are flat stupid to say they don't want three rookies.

Wall would have his hands full guarding Siva or Pierre Jackson, and one of them might slip all the way to 55. EG wouldn't trade down for Dieng, Muscala and Siva, Jackson, or Wolters because that would be three rookies and he is not a good GM. Wittman's job is on the line and he and Ernie will throw all their hope into mediocre thirty year old players with big contracts. They don't like youth or the draft.

[Ruzious]

Well the beauty of trading down is that even if Zeller is taken, Len or Adams are still very good consolation prizes for a teens pick.

Also, I think Sac pushes hard for a SF.

The thing about consolation prizes - they usually aren't anywhere near as good as the things they were consolating for.

[dobrojim]

if I'm trading or trading down, I'm going to be greedy.
I want a definite stud player ie Horford or maybe LMA. Otherwise I'm taking BPA.
I'm just more confused now about who BPA will be.