Post#88 » by CntOutSmrtCrazy » Sun May 4, 2014 11:03 pm
Should be a good, tough and gritty series starting on Monday night. I'm not too worried about our rest, guys like Nene, Miller, Gortat, and Webster will have probably been helped to varying degrees by the days off. Also, starting on the road should probably have us more revved, as opposed to coming out flat at home. I'll predict Wizards in an optimistic 6 games if we get one of the first two. I still wouldn't count us out even if we lost the first two.
On another note, I saw Hibbert played reasonably well in game 7 with 13 ppints, 7 board and 5 swats (that's more in each of those categories than the previous combined 4 games). Hope it was more of a "he eventually had to have a decent game,' more than a wake up.
As for match-ups, I think we have a fairly clear advantage at PG with Wall and Miller versus Hill and Watson. SG in terms of starters is close with Beal being more of an offensive threat and Stephenson being more of a threat in the 'other things' areas such as rebounding. Martel and Turner are the primary backups here (Turner has had two consecutive DNPs). The three position has to be on paper in their favor, but that's not to say that the combination of Ariza and Webster can't diminish that advantage. I definitely don't think he'll put up the numbers he did versus ATL against Trevor. PF is a slight advantage to us based on these playoffs series so far, maybe even the regular season. Who worries me is Scola coming off the bench, he's killed us in the past, and can give you those 20 point games from nowhere. Booker's lack of height may really be exposed in this series. It'll be interesting to see if Gooden and/or Harrington get more duty here. Finally the match-up at center... this will certainly be the most interesting and maybe the most important of the match-ups. As others have pointed out, Gortat will need to score efficiently and at least hold his own on the boards. Thankfully, they don't have any offensive threats from this position in traditional lineups, but they do have some depth with Mahinmi off the bench. Still a lot of question marks here...will Hibbert have a resurgence, can Tat score efficiently and continue to give solid rebounding and shot blocking, will Seraphin get more burn?
Team wise I think the advantage are clear in terms of us being the better offensive team and them being better defensively. Indy is not much better than CHI was on offense. During the regular season they were 24th in PPG, 27th in APG, and 17th in FG%. There strengths on offense are three point and free throw shooting. Their a traditionally good defensive team as they were among the best in the league at opponents FG% and 3ptFG% (as were the Wizards for opponents three point shooting). There not really all that great in forcing TO's and getting steals. I also noted in looking at the stats that they had a -2.6 FGA per game whereas Washington was +3.5. The offensive match-ups I think will heavily depend on both teams ability to get and convert free throws and make threes. Defensively we need to force turnovers and force Stephenson and George into bad attempts. Defensively for them they'll need to limit fouls and our three point attempts as well as not turnover that will allow us to get easy scores. The bench on paper is again in their favor; again I'm really worried about Scola. I'm hoping Webster is more of a threat in this series and if Gooden or Harrington can come in an knock down some shots to stretch the floor it would be a huge plus.
Keys to series:
1. Wall- Can he become a more effective offensive threat and can he limit PG penetration. After an okay series I think we're going to need a big one from him here.
2. Battle of the Bigs- Gortan/Nene/Booker verus Hibbert/West/Scola. Will be have an X-Factor big (Gooden/Seraphin/Harrington) off the bench and play good?
3. Three point shooting- Wizards have the advantage, but can they get a good number of solid looks?
4. George v. Ariza- Luckily our best defender is at a position where their best offensive play is. Both have also rebounded the ball well and shoot efficiently from three in these playoffs. Ariza cannot let George be a facilitator.
5. Getting to the line- which team wins this battle in both attempts and makes looms large.
Looking forward to a TOR-WASH ECF in a year or two 
