'14-'15 Rookie/Sophomore/Junior Thread

[Nivek]

I'm keeping an eye on Crowder in Boston. Limited sample size, but the Celtics appear to be asking more of him (or permitting him to do more), and he's played well thus far. He's starting since they traded Jeff Green.

[Induveca]

I'm keeping an eye on Crowder in Boston. Limited sample size, but the Celtics appear to be asking more of him (or permitting him to do more), and he's played well thus far. He's starting since they traded Jeff Green.

Same, he was painful against the Bulls last night. Ouch.

I remember you having him ranked at the top, or near the top of his draft class pre-draft. He's a jack of all trades type, unfortunately he just seems a tad below average at everything he does at the NBA level. It was the exact opposite in college......I think he'll have a nice career somewhere in Europe.

[Nivek]

I'm keeping an eye on Crowder in Boston. Limited sample size, but the Celtics appear to be asking more of him (or permitting him to do more), and he's played well thus far. He's starting since they traded Jeff Green.

Same, he was painful against the Bulls last night. Ouch.

I remember you having him ranked at the top, or near the top of his draft class pre-draft. He's a jack of all trades type, unfortunately he just seems a tad below average at everything he does at the NBA level. It was the exact opposite in college......I think he'll have a nice career somewhere in Europe.

Crowder was extremely productive in college where he could play stretch-4 at the size of an NBA SG. Even undersized, he was stronger, tougher, quicker, harder-working and more skilled than virtually anyone he faced. Which of course ceased to be the case the moment he got to the NBA.

The big question on him was whether he could transition to SF or SG. He's shown he can defend, but has been in a very limited role offensively in Dallas -- probably with good reason. Rick Carlisle usually doesn't make big mistakes with players.

I like Crowder, so I'm hoping he can figure it out in Boston. If not, I agree he'll likely have a terrific career overseas. The guy is a really good player, but perhaps not quite the right mix of size and skills for the NBA game.

[dckingsfan]

Big deal this week is Nurkic...

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-bas ... ence-maker

[dckingsfan]

NBA.com's rankings:
http://www.nba.com/2015/news/features/s ... index.html

[dckingsfan]

Otto trending down - slightly

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=vorp

[dckingsfan]

Beal trending up - slightly

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=vorp

[TheSecretWeapon]

Rookies with at least 300 minutes through games played 1/22...

Code: Select all

RANK    PLAYER          TEAM    PPA
1       Parker          MIL     110
2       Mirotic         CHI     105
3       Black           HOU/MIN 96
4       Nurkic          DEN     92
5       Noel            PHI     84
6       Ennis           MIA     79
7       Smart           BOS     77
8       Wiggins         MIN     70
9       Payton          ORL     68
10      Clarkson        LAL     66
11      Ingles          UTA     56
12      Bogdanovich     BRK     52
13      Napier          MIA     50
14      McDaniels       PHI     49
15      Anderson        SAS     47
16      Grant           PHI     44
17      Hairston        CHO     38
18      Papanikolaou    HOU     37
19      Wear            NYK     28
20      Rudez           IND     26
21      Exum            UTA     23
22      Lavine          MIN     22
23      Harris          CLE     17
24      Sampson         PHI     12
25      Stauskas        SAC     5
26      Hood            UTA     5


[dckingsfan]

Nivek = TheSecretWeapon ?

[TheSecretWeapon]

Second year players with at least 300 minutes through games played 1/22

Code: Select all

RANK    PLAYER          TEAM    PPA
1       Gobert          UTA     177
2       Dieng           MIN     157
3       Ma.Plumlee      BRK     149
4       Muhammad        MIN     124
5       Adams           OKC     110
6       Len             PHO     110
7       Antetokounmpo   MIL     108
8       Covington       PHI     108
9       Oladipo         ORL     101
10      Canaan          HOU     98
11      Olynyk          BOS     97
12      Holiday         GSW     95
13      C.Zeller        CHO     94
14      Dedmon          ORL     80
15      Karasev         BRK     79
16      Roberson        OKC     79
17      Porter          WAS     78
18      Larkin          NYK     69
19      Schroder        ATL     67
20      Burke           UTA     67
21      KCP             DET     66
22      S.Hill          IND     65
23      Hummel          MIN     63
24      Thompson        PHI     58
25      Crabbe          POR     56
26      McLemore        SAC     56
27      Pressey         BOS     52
28      Hardaway        NYK     50
29      MCW             PHI     50
30      Bennett         MIN     49
31      Antic           ATL     46
32      Davies          PHI/BRK 41
33      McCollum        POR     39
34      McCallum        SAC     30
35      Dellavedova     CLE     29


[TheSecretWeapon]

Nivek = TheSecretWeapon ?

TSW was Nivek before there was a Nivek. Now, there's no Nivek, just TSW.

[TheSecretWeapon]

And third years (300+ minutes) through 1/22...

Code: Select all

RANK    PLAYER          TEAM    PPA
1       Davis           NOP     279
2       Lillard         POR     186
3       Drummond        DET     179
4       Valanciunas     TOR     171
5       Sullinger       BOS     157
6       Green           GSW     156
7       Zeller          BOS     155
8       Barnes          GSW     149
9       Kidd-Gilchrist  CHO     116
10      Sims            PHI     116
11      Middleton       MIL     115
12      Plumlee         PHO     112
13      Beverley        HOU     109
14      Beal            WAS     108
15      O'Quinn         ORL     103
16      Motiejunas      HOU     100
17      Lamb            OKC     96
18      Crowder         DAL/BOS 96
19      Leonard         POR     95
20      Prigioni        NYK     93
21      Shved           HOU/PHI 91
22      Henson          MIL     89
23      Baynes          SAS     88
24      Scott           ATL     84
25      Marshall        MIL     82
26      Acy             NYK     81
27      Singler         DET     76
28      Freeland        POR     75
29      Ross            TOR     74
30      Fournier        ORL     67
31      Roberts         CHO     65
32      Wroten          PHI     60
33      Robinson        POR     55
34      Teletovic       BRK     52
35      Waiters         CLE/OKC 47
36      Sacre           LAL     45
37      Rivers          NOP/LAC 36
38      Bazemore        ATL     31
39      Jones           OKC     27
40      Harkless        ORL     23
41      Copeland        IND     12


[AFM]

Second year players with at least 300 minutes through games played 1/22

Code: Select all

RANK    PLAYER          TEAM    PPA
1       Gobert          UTA     177
2       Dieng           MIN     157
3       Ma.Plumlee      BRK     149
4       Muhammad        MIN     124
5       Adams           OKC     110
6       Len             PHO     110
7       Antetokounmpo   MIL     108
8       Covington       PHI     108
9       Oladipo         ORL     101
10      Canaan          HOU     98
11      Olynyk          BOS     97
12      Holiday         GSW     95
13      C.Zeller        CHO     94
14      Dedmon          ORL     80
15      Karasev         BRK     79
16      Roberson        OKC     79
17      Porter          WAS     78
18      Larkin          NYK     69
19      Schroder        ATL     67
20      Burke           UTA     67
21      KCP             DET     66
22      S.Hill          IND     65
23      Hummel          MIN     63
24      Thompson        PHI     58
25      Crabbe          POR     56
26      McLemore        SAC     56
27      Pressey         BOS     52
28      Hardaway        NYK     50
29      MCW             PHI     50
30      Bennett         MIN     49
31      Antic           ATL     46
32      Davies          PHI/BRK 41
33      McCollum        POR     39
34      McCallum        SAC     30
35      Dellavedova     CLE     29


Looks like Shabazz isn't a bust after all. Surprised Giannis and Oladipo are ranked below him....

[dckingsfan]

Still not anything terribly wow about the rookies...

http://www.nba.com/2015/news/features/s ... index.html

[dckingsfan]

Otto trending down - slightly more

Seems like Gobert, GA and Dieng are the best players out of that draft...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=vorp

[dckingsfan]

Beal staying the same

Seems like Lillard, Green and Davis are the clear front-runners in that draft...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=vorp

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Dckingsfan, I sorted those same lists a couple additional ways besides by VORP. I also looked at WS/48 and PER rankings.

And on top of that I looked at the age of each player.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Otto trending down - slightly more

Seems like Gobert, GA and Dieng are the best players out of that draft...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=vorp

Yes, Gobert and Antetokounmpo are at the top. I think the 20-year old Greek Freak is going to be the best player. He's far better than Otto Porter, and a year younger.

Gobert is an excellent defender and a phenomenal physical talent.

A few other players look to be clearly better than Porter. Alex Len and Steven Adams are 21, just like Otto. If there were a do over, both guys rate higher to me.

Shabazz Muhammad at 22 is better by far offensively, but Otto's a better defender. Cody Zeller is slightly ahead of Otto IMO. Still, Porter is at least competitive with these two.

Dieng is 24 or 25. He's considerably older and more physically mature. Porter knows how to play and IMO will make a leap as he gets physically stronger.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Beal staying the same

Seems like Lillard, Green and Davis are the clear front-runners in that draft...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=vorp

In this draft there's Anthony Davis miles ahead of anyone else.

Beal is IMO not as good as one other 21-year old drafted after him, Andre Drummond. Michael Kidd Gilchrist was picked just before Beal and he rates higher in my estimate.

Lillard rates way higher than Beal. However, he is 24. So is Draymond Green. I remember wanting Lillard and a pick instead of Beal that draft. What bothers me is that Beal does not seem to have improved.

A couple 22 year olds appear to me to rate as high or higher than Beal: Jonas Valanciunas and Jared Sullinger. Harrison Barnes also posts competitive stats this season, but I think Beal is a better player.

The question is will Beal be the same player three years from now?

[dckingsfan]

@CCG, Beal year over year... guess you are basically right.

Code: Select all

Season    Age  G    MP     PER    TS%     TRB%  AST%   STL%  BLK%  TOV%   USG%
2012-13   19   56   1745   13.6   0.515   6.7   13.7   1.5   1.3   10.6   22.2
2013-14   20   73   2530   14.3   0.507   6.3   16.0   1.4   0.6   09.4   24.3
2014-15   21   42   1404   13.8   0.524   6.6   14.5   1.9   0.6   12.0   22.2


or

Code: Select all

Season    Age  WS/48   VORP  ORtg  DRtg
2012-13   19   0.082   0.8   102   105
2013-14   20   0.076   0.6   103   107
2014-15   21   0.085   1.6   102   105