Bradley Beal - Part III

Dark Faze · Post #81 » by **Dark Faze** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 4:28 pm

The numbers I would give a max to are 22 years old 19 PPG on 47% FG 40% 3PFG yes.

You can't worry about the cap when you can't even acquire good players via free agency.

dckingsfan · Post #82 » by **dckingsfan** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 4:42 pm

Hmmmm, probably our disconnect. I would give a max based upon criteria against his peers and against year over year improvement - a trend if you will.

I look at the trend previously:

Code: Select all

Season   Age   TS%    TRB%   AST%   STL%   TOV%   WS/48   VORP   PER
2012-13   19   0.515   6.7   13.7   1.5   10.6    0.082   0.9    13.6
2013-14   20   0.507   6.3   16.0   1.4    9.4    0.076   0.5    14.3
2014-15   21   0.521   6.4   15.0   1.8   11.7    0.085   1.3    14.0
2015-16   22   0.564   6.8   15.5   1.7   12.3    0.074   0.4    16.9

And against his peers:
http://tinyurl.com/judndjx

And I say, "sell" - I would think that another team would have a greater value for him now (going into the playoffs) that we do. Naturally, I would want something back - but I WOULDN'T want to give him a max deal next year - and if I don't trade him, I am most likely doing that...

Dark Faze · Post #83 » by **Dark Faze** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:04 pm

that's why I dislike blanket lists based on random advanced stats--tobias harris has more value than Andre Drummond? Really? Otto Porter does too?

come on

dckingsfan · Post #84 » by **dckingsfan** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:14 pm

You make a good point - there are many in the list that aren't better than Beal. And I wouldn't give them a max contract either. But it does make the point that he hasn't outclassed his age group. And watching his year over year progression in combination with the list paints a better picture. Look at the same list with WS/48 and + VORP + Beals progression and it doesn't paint a great picture.

At this point, it would just be "hope" that he improves.

BTW, yes - I would take Porter over Beal at this point.

DCZards · Post #85 » by **DCZards** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:17 pm

Dark Faze wrote:that's why I dislike blanket lists based on random advanced stats--tobias harris has more value than Andre Drummond? Really? Otto Porter does too?

come on

And they also have more value than Kyrie Irving...as does Evan Founier, Gary Harris and Jard Sullinger. SMH.

DCZards · Post #86 » by **DCZards** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:27 pm

dckingsfan wrote:And I say, "sell" - I would think that another team would have a greater value for him now (going into the playoffs) that we do. Naturally, I would want something back - but I WOULDN'T want to give him a max deal next year - and if I don't trade him, I am most likely doing that...

Yeah, if the right deal comes along I'd also say "sell." Heck, I'd pretty much say that about every Zard not named John Wall. But you don't try to move Beal based simply on the unknown, which is whether or not he'll get a max contract this offseason...especially when both recent stats and the eye test say that the kid is clearly getting better.

And if you're trading a guy who may someday be one of the top 3-4 shooting guards in the league, you had better get some real value for him.

Kanyewest · Post #87 » by **Kanyewest** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:38 pm

DCZards wrote:
Dark Faze wrote:that's why I dislike blanket lists based on random advanced stats--tobias harris has more value than Andre Drummond? Really? Otto Porter does too?

come on

And they also have more value than Kyrie Irving...as does Evan Founier, Gary Harris and Jard Sullinger. SMH.

For Irving, it seems like the sample size is relatively small especially since he's coming off an injury. Irving is only shooting 28.5% from 3 this season compared to 41.5% from last season. Maybe those numbers go up as Irving gets into shape. But yeah, stats aren't perfect.

dckingsfan · Post #88 » by **dckingsfan** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 6:26 pm

DCZards wrote:
Dark Faze wrote:that's why I dislike blanket lists based on random advanced stats--tobias harris has more value than Andre Drummond? Really? Otto Porter does too?

come on

And they also have more value than Kyrie Irving...as does Evan Founier, Gary Harris and Jard Sullinger. SMH.

You could also take the WS/48 if you like. And again, my point isn't just that list... right?

dckingsfan · Post #89 » by **dckingsfan** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 6:30 pm

DCZards wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:And I say, "sell" - I would think that another team would have a greater value for him now (going into the playoffs) that we do. Naturally, I would want something back - but I WOULDN'T want to give him a max deal next year - and if I don't trade him, I am most likely doing that...

Yeah, if the right deal comes along I'd also say "sell." Heck, I'd pretty much say that about every Zard not named John Wall. But you don't try to move Beal based simply on the unknown, which is whether or not he'll get a max contract this offseason...especially when both recent stats and the eye test say that the kid is clearly getting better.

And if you're trading a guy who may someday be one of the top 3-4 shooting guards in the league, you had better get some real value for him.

Same arguments were made for McGee and Young (not you of course). The point being - you DO want to look ahead and understand what you will be paying an oft-injured guard that hasn't shown a lot of improvement in the last three years (other than the eye test). If you don't get a good deal, then fine you go into FA. But if he asks for a max deal, you let him go get that from another team. If were anyone but EG, that would probably happen. With EG - he will get a max deal.

So, I still say sell now. Well, fire EG and then sell

Dark Faze · Post #90 » by **Dark Faze** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 6:31 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
DCZards wrote:
Dark Faze wrote:that's why I dislike blanket lists based on random advanced stats--tobias harris has more value than Andre Drummond? Really? Otto Porter does too?

come on

And they also have more value than Kyrie Irving...as does Evan Founier, Gary Harris and Jard Sullinger. SMH.

You could also take the WS/48 if you like. And again, my point isn't just that list... right?

your point that the trend for beal has been less than max worthy and quite mediocre is pretty well known--obviously we've gotta wait to see if the current beal continues for the rest of the season but it would be a breakout season for him if it does

nuposse04 · Post #91 » by **nuposse04** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 6:37 pm

If post injury Beal Stays this productive I could prolly understand a max contract with an injury provision.

Key is, how long can he keep this production up. The mid range jumper will come down to earth but he is seemingly attacking more. Good to see his three point shot fall last night, gotta hit more fts though.

Still, I think everyone young on the team would benefit with a less predictable offense. That and a gm who might actually get us some big man depth.

Brapman · Post #92 » by **Brapman** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 6:45 pm

Maybe he's one of those guys who is better with fewer minutes.

Post #93 » by **Ruzious** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:23 pm

It's definitely encouraging that in his 5 games this month, he's averaged 21.2 PPG in only 27.46 minutes per game with 54.7 FG%, but he's not doing a lot other than shooting. In Feb, he's averaging only 2.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 3.4 FTA's. He's near en fuego with his sshot - and hopefully that continues, but there's a lot to improve on.

dckingsfan · Post #94 » by **dckingsfan** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:42 pm

Well - I can understand both points.

1) he is still young, he could be a star. So, we should be willing to give the max and see if he will develop. His recent games show where he could end up as a player.

2) he hasn't made enough progress year over year and he is oft-injured. Trade him now and don't go through a negotiating process that we are almost guaranteed to lose.

queridiculo · Post #95 » by **queridiculo** » Thu Feb 11, 2016 2:20 pm

The Beal we've seen since his return is the Beal we were promised in the offseason, I like where things are headed with him.

His lower leg injuries are a concern, but there are plenty of signs that show that he seems to have figured out how to be a more effective player.

FTAs are up, 3PA are up, attempts within 3 feet are up, and he's cut down the long two's significantly while making them at a much higher clip.

tontoz · Post #96 » by **tontoz** » Thu Feb 11, 2016 2:56 pm

So a 5 game stretch has people convinced we should pay him?

Post #97 » by **nate33** » Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:03 pm

tontoz wrote:So a 5 game stretch has people convinced we should pay him?

Exactly. 5 games is too small of a sample size to even come close to changing my opinion.

If he does this for the next 32 games, then I'd definitely pay him because he's a superstar. An ORtg of 120 on a USG of 28 is All-NBA 2nd team territory.

I think it's more likely that he'll come back down to Earth, but if he can play like he has over the past 12 games, then I'd still pay him. His numbers for the last 12 games are All-Star caliber: ORtg of 116 and USG of 27.

deneem4 · Post #98 » by **deneem4** » Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:14 pm

Trade beal for oladipo

queridiculo · Post #99 » by **queridiculo** » Thu Feb 11, 2016 4:39 pm

tontoz wrote:So a 5 game stretch has people convinced we should pay him?

If he continues to play like he has during his 12 game stretch I'd have no problem with it.

I've come to terms that with the way this organization is setup, I don't see this team come up with an acceptable alternative.

Post #100 » by **Ruzious** » Thu Feb 11, 2016 5:59 pm

He's doing better this season because he's taking more shots and making a significantly higher percentage of his 2's (making the same % of his 3's). He's basically the same as last season in assists, rebounds, steals, but his to's have increased. I'm not sure he's ever going to improve on this year's shooting stats, so if he's ever going to be a max quality player, I think stats such as assists, rebounds, and steals have to start increasing.