You've seen enough: To Beal or not to Beal? (Poll)

[cwb3]

I worry that Beal is broken. His injuries make me doubt he will ever be able to play starters minutes consistently through an entire season. In that case he is worth 6th man money.

[nate33]

How Bradley Beal compares to his draft class, ranked by VORP:



Note, the same disturbing results are evident if you rank them by WS/48 or BPM as well. Beal is literally one of the worst players from his draft class to still get regular minutes (statistically).

Even if you use PER, which rewards players for taking a lot of shots at a low percentage, Beal is extremely underwhelming:

[keynote]

How Bradley Beal compares to his draft class, ranked by VORP:



Note, the same disturbing results are evident if you rank them by WS/48 or BPM as well. Beal is literally one of the worst players from his draft class to still get regular minutes (statistically).

Even if you use PER, which rewards players for taking a lot of shots at a low percentage, Beal is extremely underwhelming:

These stats don't make Harrison Barnes (a oft-discussed Plan B FA) look too attractive either.

[nate33]

These stats don't make Harrison Barnes (a oft-discussed Plan B FA) look too attractive either.

Indeed. But at least with Barnes, he can fairly argue that he is sacrificing his individual performance for the good of the team. Also, defense doesn't get captured very well in these numbers and Barnes' defensive versatility is a key element of Golden State's success.

[payitforward]

Yep -- they made identical offers to 3 FA PGs that offseason, letting each know that the first who accepted would get the contract. I'm drawing a blank at the moment who the other two were, but one wasn't much good either, and the other was decent. It was almost as if the front office didn't really know how to distinguish between the relative qualities of the players. Then better players signed elsewhere for less.

I think Udrih was one. I don't even remember a third.

I sorta think it was Nate Robinson. Not certain, though.

Wasn't it Collison?

[I_Like_Dirt]

Those lists really do seem to group guys like Beal, Ross, Fournier and Barnes together an awful lot, and you can sort of lump in Barton and Bazemore, too. I imagine it has quite a bit to do with the kind of roles they tend to play for their teams. The one exception is Fournier jumps way ahead in VORP, and that kid is about to get paid, too. If anything, it makes the Raptors look a little prescient for extending Ross for $11 mil per season, because those other guys are all going to get way more, although it could definitely be argued that Ross is also the worst player of the bunch pretty easily.

Still, with the amount of money to go around and the lack of talent to spend it on, these guys are going to get paid, and extending Beal really wasn't an option for the Wizards as (a) he wouldn't have settled for less than the max, and (b) even if he would have it would have cut into cap space in the Durant chase.

As an aside, I'm very curious to find out how much the Thunder wind up paying Waiters in order to show Durant they're serious about building a winner. That has the potential to be an albatross worse in magnitude than whatever Doc Rivers winds up giving Austin should Austin opt out.

[payitforward]

How Bradley Beal compares to his draft class, ranked by VORP:



Note, the same disturbing results are evident if you rank them by WS/48 or BPM as well. Beal is literally one of the worst players from his draft class to still get regular minutes (statistically).

Even if you use PER, which rewards players for taking a lot of shots at a low percentage, Beal is extremely underwhelming:

Whiteside and Valanciunas were not in that draft class. Teletovic neither -- and he turns 31 in a few month. Beverley was drafted in '09.

[nate33]

How Bradley Beal compares to his draft class, ranked by VORP:



Note, the same disturbing results are evident if you rank them by WS/48 or BPM as well. Beal is literally one of the worst players from his draft class to still get regular minutes (statistically).

Even if you use PER, which rewards players for taking a lot of shots at a low percentage, Beal is extremely underwhelming:

Whiteside and Valanciunas were not in that draft class. Teletovic neither -- and he turns 31 in a few month. Beverley was drafted in '09.

Yeah, I noticed that after posting. BBall reference is weird like that. I couldn't use "drafted in 2012" as a criteria. I had to use "players in their 4th season". But the point still stands. FWIW, MKG should also be on the list and he'd rank ahead of Beal were it not for the injury.

[dckingsfan]

Ah, but the eye test!

[payitforward]

WP48 ranks 2012 draftees productivity in the following order:

Drummond
Green
Crowder
Miles Plumlee
Ezeli
Jeremy Lamb
Anthony Davis
Will Barton
Quincy Acy
Kyle O'Quinn
Sullinger
Khris Middleton
Lillard
Fournier
Thomas Robinson

This list only includes guys who produced at average or better level. At least 500 minutes (some played a lot less).

You could make a pretty good (but not complete) team off that list just from guys picked from #20 and below!

PG ?
SG Jae Crowder, Evan Fournier
SF Will Barton, Khris Middleton
PF Draymond Green, Jared Sullinger, Quincy Acy
C Kyle O'Quinn, Festus Ezeli

6 of those 9 were chosen in R2. The R1 guys were the #20, #21 and #30. The average is just about the #33 pick!

(Note that the missing PG and the less stellar names at C might indicate which are the hardest positions in the league to fill w/ excellence from anywhere but the top 10 in the draft.)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I fully expect the Wizards will bid against themselves and rush to give Beal a max deal.

I have noticed there are a lot of effective, young shooting guards around the league. What distinguishes Beal from Norman Powell? Josh Richardson? Troy Daniels? Jordan Clarkson? Shabazz Muhammad?

Beal is a very good three point shooter. But others on the list are good, too.

[fishercob]

I think a S&T is very unlikely given the number of teams out there with cap space. Beal, the Wizards and the third team would all need to agree on compensation, contract, etc.

I suppose Beal has a bit of an incentive to cooperate. Once he signs his deal (or the Wizards match) they could trade him anywhere come December 15. At least this gives him a measure of control. But I tend to think that his agent will convince him to get as much guaranteed cash he can now and let the rest work itself out later.

[keynote]

I don't think the Wizards will rush. I do think a smart team will try to sign Beal to a max contract as early in the FA signing window as possible, in an attempt to force us to choose between retaining Beal (but tying our extra cap room before we're able to sign other players) and losing Beal for nothing.

[McFilthy]

My inclination is to sign Beal to a less-than-max contract or let him go. He seems like a good guy with a nice 3-ball and has the potential to improve, but his constant injuries concern me, especially the the stress fracture in his leg which comes up EVERY year. Having a Beal on the team like this year for max money in and out of the lineup and/or on a minutes restriction is not really worth it IMO.

I fear this could be like when New Orleans matched Eric Gordon's max offer from Phoenix 2012. In addition to the man games missed, having players on your team that are chronically injured takes a psychological effect on a team. Derrick Rose in a more extreme example, who I would be done with if I were a Chicago fan.

With all the the money teams have this season, the reality is that the some team will offer him the max. If Beal is viewed as an asset, a shrewd GM would match whatever offer he gets and pray he stays free from serious injury early in the season and then trade him. I am not that shrewd of a reaIgm, so I would be tempted to just cut my losses and let him walk. Ernie will sign/match him for the max without a plan to trade him.

[payitforward]

Ted said -- just today -- "we like our core." I don't think Brad is going anywhere. We'll pay him a lot of $$ and then find out whether he can be 1) good and 2) durable. Hope so.

[dckingsfan]

ha! Max contract or bust... http://tinyurl.com/h9q6o2f

[payitforward]

No surprises there.

[dckingsfan]

No surprises there.

We are just like the Spurs that way

[WallToWall]

He may want a max contract, but no team in their right mind would offer it.

[Wizardspride]

He may want a max contract, but no team in their right mind would offer it.

Be that as it may, he's going to get it.