The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards)

[Illmatic12]

https://heavy.com/sports/2018/10/pacers-myles-turner-contract-extension/

Antetokounmpo. Or any similarly "big" move

We already have Bryant. Turner would be another contract we'd have to "move". He's not as valuable or movable to another team as a top 5 pick. Plus we need that pick to draft Wall's replacement.

.

You’ve paid attention to the leaguewide moves that happened this offseason yes?

Miami had zero cap space this summer and they were still able to acquire a max FA. We are seeing now that creating cap room on short notice is not really an obstacle. If Wash were on the verge of signing an FA of Giannis caliber I have no doubt they would be able to clear capspace within 24-48 hrs.

There is also the option of sign-and-trades. We need to acquire talented young players on good contracts (like Myles Turner), everything else can be figured out later.

It's not that easy when you have Wall on a supermax and Beal on a max. If we are assuming both of those guys are to be kept, and we are also assuming we traded for a Miles Turner tier guy, there is simply no way to acquire a superstar to join them.

Ultimately, I agree with JAR69 on this point. It doesn't make sense to build around Hachimura, Brown, Bryant and our 2020 lotto pick while also keeping Wall.

There are people who get paid 6 figures to figure out how to work around the NBA salary cap - they are the ones who will know what’s possible and what isn’t.

Miami had the highest payroll in the league and just added a max player . In the NBA whether a transaction is “easy” or not depends on the desire to get it done.

If Giannis hypothetically wanted to come here in 2021, could we not send out Turner’s salary to Milwaukee in a S&T ? Is that not exactly what Miami did in sending Josh Richardson to Philly in the Butler S&T? Salaries are always movable assets, especially when you have good contracts and don’t need to provide additional incentives to move them.

And when it comes to building for the future, Wall’s contract won’t be a hindrance past 2023 and could possibly be moved before then .

[nate33]

You’ve paid attention to the leaguewide moves that happened this offseason yes?

Miami had zero cap space this summer and they were still able to acquire a max FA. We are seeing now that creating cap room on short notice is not really an obstacle. If Wash were on the verge of signing an FA of Giannis caliber I have no doubt they would be able to clear capspace within 24-48 hrs.

There is also the option of sign-and-trades. We need to acquire talented young players on good contracts (like Myles Turner), everything else can be figured out later.

It's not that easy when you have Wall on a supermax and Beal on a max. If we are assuming both of those guys are to be kept, and we are also assuming we traded for a Miles Turner tier guy, there is simply no way to acquire a superstar to join them.

Ultimately, I agree with JAR69 on this point. It doesn't make sense to build around Hachimura, Brown, Bryant and our 2020 lotto pick while also keeping Wall.

There are people who get paid 6 figures to figure out how to work around the NBA salary cap - they are the ones who will know what’s possible and what isn’t.

Miami had the highest payroll in the league and just added a max player . In the NBA whether a transaction is “easy” or not depends on the desire to get it done.

If Giannis hypothetically wanted to come here in 2021, could we not send out Turner’s salary to Milwaukee in a S&T ? Is that not exactly what Miami did in sending Josh Richardson to Philly in the Butler S&T? Salaries are always movable assets, especially when you have good contracts and don’t need to provide additional incentives to move them.

And when it comes to building for the future, Wall’s contract won’t be a hindrance past 2023 and could possibly be moved before then .

I didn't realize that you were open to trading Turner after acquiring him.

Nevertheless, it's still damn near impossible to keep and pay a team featuring two supermax contracts (Wall and Giannis) plus another max or possible supermax in Beal. The luxtax costs would be astronomical.

I just think it makes a whole lot more sense to unload Wall.

[doclinkin]

https://heavy.com/sports/2018/10/pacers-myles-turner-contract-extension/

Antetokounmpo. Or any similarly "big" move

We already have Bryant. Turner would be another contract we'd have to "move". He's not as valuable or movable to another team as a top 5 pick. Plus we need that pick to draft Wall's replacement.

.

You’ve paid attention to the leaguewide moves that happened this offseason yes?

Miami had zero cap space this summer and they were still able to acquire a max FA. We are seeing now that creating cap room on short notice is not really an obstacle. If Wash were on the verge of signing an FA of Giannis caliber I have no doubt they would be able to clear capspace within 24-48 hrs.

There is also the option of sign-and-trades. We need to acquire talented young players on good contracts (like Myles Turner), everything else can be figured out later.

It's not that easy when you have Wall on a supermax and Beal on a max. If we are assuming both of those guys are to be kept, and we are also assuming we traded for a Miles Turner tier guy, there is simply no way to acquire a superstar to join them.

Ultimately, I agree with JAR69 on this point. It doesn't make sense to build around Hachimura, Brown, Bryant and our 2020 lotto pick while also keeping Wall.

The Nets just sold for 2 Billion dollars. Gambling money has not yet started to affect the cap, but Leonsis is wiring the building to make it gambling friendly for UK style prop bets (betting on individual player performances, halftime bets etc) and he 86'ed the Greene Turtle to make room for a sportsbook. Hell he 86'ed Phil and Buck to snazz and stat up the broadcast and entice bettors.

I'd submit we have no real idea what the cap is going to be in the next few years of the CBA and what sort of room we may or may not have available. And we have shown we are willing to pay the lux tax if it comes to that. Recall Leonsis is trying to sell the public on the idea that we are changing the foundation of how we do business. He's talking up a crusade of fixing not just the basketball in the building but revitalizing the region and shaping kids lives etc. It's not just a business venture its a crusade. He's pouring money into front office positions and building new facilities etc. As soon as Ms Jobs bought a piece of the team suddenly we built a practice facility and arena for the WNBA and purchased a Go-Go squad re-worked the former Phone Booth. AND paid the lux tax.

That double bottom line thing sometimes costs a bit of money up front. A loss leader, in order to become a leader. The team is tripling its staff and creating new departments within itself. I think we don't treat the lux tax as the same kind of boogeyman that other teams do. This is not small market Utah or Charlotte who are scared to pay Kemba or Gobert. If the team is playing well and there's an opportunity to make a real push I suspect we will. Though the rules make it tricky to add salary in free agency when you are already capped out, still, if there is a chance to compete within the Wall Beal era, I think Ted feels he owes it to these two to try. I get the impression that was the promise he made Beal.

That said, right, our best hope, as is the hope of every team that is trying to build a lasting contender, is to draft smart and get lucky.

[Illmatic12]

It's not that easy when you have Wall on a supermax and Beal on a max. If we are assuming both of those guys are to be kept, and we are also assuming we traded for a Miles Turner tier guy, there is simply no way to acquire a superstar to join them.

Ultimately, I agree with JAR69 on this point. It doesn't make sense to build around Hachimura, Brown, Bryant and our 2020 lotto pick while also keeping Wall.

There are people who get paid 6 figures to figure out how to work around the NBA salary cap - they are the ones who will know what’s possible and what isn’t.

Miami had the highest payroll in the league and just added a max player . In the NBA whether a transaction is “easy” or not depends on the desire to get it done.

If Giannis hypothetically wanted to come here in 2021, could we not send out Turner’s salary to Milwaukee in a S&T ? Is that not exactly what Miami did in sending Josh Richardson to Philly in the Butler S&T? Salaries are always movable assets, especially when you have good contracts and don’t need to provide additional incentives to move them.

And when it comes to building for the future, Wall’s contract won’t be a hindrance past 2023 and could possibly be moved before then .

I didn't realize that you were open to trading Turner after acquiring him.

Nevertheless, it's still damn near impossible to keep and pay a team featuring two supermax contracts (Wall and Giannis) plus another max or possible supermax in Beal. The luxtax costs would be astronomical.

I just think it makes a whole lot more sense to unload Wall.

Yeah maybe I wasn’t clear , but the impetus behind flipping the pick is to acquire quality proven players who are young and thus could maintain or increase their asset value. This allows you to compete while maintaining optionality. You can keep your team together and compete with a young core, but if any star becomes available on the trade market you would have the type of young players and salary ballast that those franchises would be looking for in return.

I think instead of putting all of our eggs in the 2021 free agency basket, the Wiz should be aggressive on the trade market in making moves that will be a set up for future moves.

As far as unloading Wall, imo it doesn’t make sense to do so at the moment because nothing is imminent. It’s not like Anthony Davis said he wants to come here and now we suddenly have to clear 2020 cap room. We’re under the tax for now and a Beal extension wouldn’t kick until 2021-22. So there’s some time to figure out how to approach Wall’s situation and also to let him build up his value on the court.

[deneem4]

I think we’re replicating the rockets in a mold of Beal being harden in his early rocket years....
Solid players at positions that can play both sides...
With wall coming back we get some sorta of Paul and harden...(that combo was good enough to get to the wcf)
Now Beal is no harden
Harden has transcended to another level but Beal has a similar game and has definitely improved as an iso scorer with even more room to improve as he has shown after wall went down...
Hachimura and Bryant are great fits
Hachi seems to be able to create his own shot and brown has been looking like a great small ball era center...

[nate33]

As far as unloading Wall, imo it doesn’t make sense to do so at the moment because nothing is imminent. It’s not like Anthony Davis said he wants to come here and now we suddenly have to clear 2020 cap room. We’re under the tax for now and a Beal extension wouldn’t kick until 2021-22. So there’s some time to figure out how to approach Wall’s situation and also to let him build up his value on the court.

I agree completely. The earliest I would consider moving Wall would be at the Trade Deadline in the 2020-21 season after he has had a full year to recover from the injury and another 50 games or so to demonstrate that he is still a very good player. Also, his horrible contract will be just 2.3 years long at that point, not 4 years long.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I just had a funny thought. You'll notice from that article that one of the people whom Ted asked for input was Barack.

It couldn't be that one of our registered participants here is an ex ... nah.

Then again if he were, you'd expect really informed posts, right? So... you don't think maybe one of our more thoughtful posters, like maybe nate...? nah, no way... right?

Though, you know, as I start to think about it... I mean, presenting yourself as on the right politically, I mean what better way to obscure your real identity? ... nah... come on! It just can't be!!

Still... What about it, nate?

CCJ lives in Hawaii, which is BOs state of birth, and is a very informed contributor

The former president went to Punahou HS (a very nice, private school). He was called "Barry" in HS. I think he grew up in Kailua. Whenever he's in town there are a few places he frequents. One of which is known for its shave ice.

**I recently read up on the Obama. Never realized both of his birth parents were PhDs. I knew he was raised by his grandparents (white family from Kansas, transplants here in HI).**

Barack Obama and I were born in the same year, but I'm actually a few months older than he is.

[nate33]

I just had a funny thought. You'll notice from that article that one of the people whom Ted asked for input was Barack.

It couldn't be that one of our registered participants here is an ex ... nah.

Then again if he were, you'd expect really informed posts, right? So... you don't think maybe one of our more thoughtful posters, like maybe nate...? nah, no way... right?

Though, you know, as I start to think about it... I mean, presenting yourself as on the right politically, I mean what better way to obscure your real identity? ... nah... come on! It just can't be!!

Still... What about it, nate?

I'm deeply offended PIF. That one hurt...

[doclinkin]

Oh man, is it ever going to be amusing to look back at this thread! Wow!! Mindblowingly wow...!
...

There's the fantasy that our having acquired the expiring Davis Bertans indicates the style of player we want. Here is the most notable fact about Bertans: he was available FREE.

...

Ditto the idea that we are going to "outthink" the competition, because we hired a bunch of guys in the last 3 weeks! Why don't we wait until we see that they are competent at all before putting a crown on their collective head.

Lordy!

Heh. After preseason games where we have taken more 3pt shots than inside the arc. And even our center is even chucking 8 shots from outside in a game. And Bertans has been gunning with hairtrigger speed. And statman Dean Oliver seems pleased with what we do. And almost all of our inside shots have been drives to the bucket or passes to the interior. Dunno. Seems to me maybe just maybe it’s all been part of a plan. And maybe just maybe people should pay attention when docstradamus says he’s seeing some signs.

[doclinkin]

It’s long but basically we are playing like I predicted. Ballhandling and outside shooting:

I talked about it in the Bertans thread. But I think we are deliberately building a team with a Beal Wall core in mind. I think the moves they have made suggest how they hope to build the team given the strengths and weaknesses of what we have.

Under the current rule set the strongest correlation between any of the four factors and success is shooting efficiency. In most cases nowadays the winner at the end of the game is the team that shoots better.

Our squad has done pretty well with this. Year after year we have posted good efficiency numbers on offense. In fact this year were the only team to miss the playoffs among the Top 10 most efficient scoring teams. We can score with anybody. But overall we lose since we do not rebound or defend well.

Yet in the offseason we did not address defense much at all. We recruited in the draft one of the most efficient high usage scorers in Hachimura. We passed on his teammate who was a rebounding and defending madman, but whose face-up game was in development. We traded for a 2nd round pick that added long ranged efficiency in Admiral (40% from three, improving every year) . Traded ghost space from our trade exception to land one of the most efficient long ranged forwards in the game in Bertans (42% from 3) and traded away the veteran interior defense and rebounding of Howard for the veteran long ranged forward CJ Miles. The centerpiece of the LA deal and first player mentioned was Moritz Wagner, a player who worked out well for us in the Draft process and who we followed since he was a highly efficient long range scorer in the NCAA and who we had been tracking since playing in junior leagues in Europe. The only free agent we reupped was our young efficient scoring Big who can shoot fairly well from outside, and is highly efficient in the paint, but who still needs work on defense.

Clearly spacing and efficient scoring is a point of emphasis.

Aside from scoring efficiency and outside gunners we added ballhandlers who distribute and attack on the interior.

...

Consider who else we added in this same mold: the player formerly known as the King of the Fourth in IT who was notable for his driving attack game.

Isaak Bonga a rangy pointforward from the German FIBA team who has a precocious if raw face-up game, good passing, decent handle, but no reliable outside stroke.

...

So. Given Wall's weaknesses on that end (unreliable outside shot, turnovers from trying to force feed players or drive into a crowd to collect fouls) and if efficient scoring is your emphasis, how do you build a team that takes advantage of his strengths?

You give him space to operate on the interior, by giving him threats outside on all sides. You open up the interior and stretch the defense so that Wall's defender is a too-small or too-slow PG who has to run backwards as fast as Wall sprints forwards with that cockroach-quick acceleration. If he is no longer as fast, he is still fast, and still bigger than most of his match-ups. And he still can pass above the heads of most defenders.

You give him interior players who are in attack mode all the time. Neither Bryant not Hachimura pass much. When they get the ball their job is to dominate and humiliate. Both are high energy players who have tunnel vision on that end of the court.

...

Both Hachimura and Bryant also have a developing face-up game that will work well in pick and pop once they learn to really commit to their picks and screens. Punish the defender. Make them shy. This will open things up not just on the inside for the ballhandler, but for the pick setter when their defender sags to defend the interior because they smeared the ballhandlers defender off the wipeboard, and also for the backdoor wing player who crashes the glass when the weakside defender sags to compensate. That pick becomes a hockey assist. Or a self-assist when the pick and pop game is working.

With outside shooting Bigs, roles open up for players like Troy Brown and Ish Smith and Isaak Bonga and possibly Jemerrio Jones. You can take advantage of a mismatch in size or speed or savvy and find lanes to attack or to get garbage points on putbacks and crashing the glass.

Meanwhile teams will load up to defend your alpha scorer in Bradley Beal, who will take advantage of every pick set, to run his defender through a Spartan obstacle course of screens to get open, and who has proven to be one of the most efficient drivers in the game. Beal will get his: points, free throws, assists if teams try to double. But with outside shooting Bigs someone will be open.

...

So we lose, but we lose with hope intact. We add a defensive sensei and teach the team how to properly defend and rebound. And with the new lotto arrangement we can lose while trying to win instead of nakedly tanking. We lose with outside shooting from all positions, ballhandlers attacking and dishing to the open man, interior attackers who score with efficiency, and wave after wave of young players who are out there trying to figure out what can and cannot be done on the basketball court.

...

Anyway. That seems to be the plan for now.

[payitforward]

Go, Doc, go!

[nate33]

Oh man, is it ever going to be amusing to look back at this thread! Wow!! Mindblowingly wow...!
...

There's the fantasy that our having acquired the expiring Davis Bertans indicates the style of player we want. Here is the most notable fact about Bertans: he was available FREE.

...

Ditto the idea that we are going to "outthink" the competition, because we hired a bunch of guys in the last 3 weeks! Why don't we wait until we see that they are competent at all before putting a crown on their collective head.

Lordy!

Heh. After preseason games where we have taken more 3pt shots than inside the arc. And even our center is even chucking 8 shots from outside in a game. And Bertans has been gunning with hairtrigger speed. And statman Dean Oliver seems pleased with what we do. And almost all of our inside shots have been drives to the bucket or passes to the interior. Dunno. Seems to me maybe just maybe it’s all been part of a plan. And maybe just maybe people should pay attention when docstradamus says he’s seeing some signs.

One other side benefit of this 5-out attack featuring suspect defenders is that it will run up the score and allow guys to post very good individual numbers, even if they're actually not that good. It should turn our guys into better trade chips.

[payitforward]

...maybe people should pay attention when docstradamus says he’s seeing some signs.

Aristdoctle?

Docrates?

[payitforward]

...Bertans has been gunning with hairtrigger speed....

Leaving out the Long Lions game as non-competitive, Bertans has gone 8-18 on threes in 57 minutes. That's 44.5% which is great. Moreover it's on 12.6 attempts per 40 minutes -- way above his career average. Both really terrific figures.

But, that's not all. Because of how much we can conclude from these 3 games, in which btw we are 1-2, we should look at the rest of what Bertans has done:

He has gotten 30% more rebounds per 40 minutes than his career average.
He has gotten almost 70% more assists per 40 minutes than his career average.
He has more than twice as many blocked shots per 40 minutes than his career average.

From these figures, it should be obvious that in the liberating atmosphere of the new Washington Wizards & their many recently-hired analytics personnel, Davis Bertans is a transformed player: on his way to superstardom.

[doclinkin]

hey look at the shiny object over here, woo woo it's jangling too..

Ha! Lookit that straw man sing and dance.

Nope! No one made a claim that he was good. Just that the team clearly had a play style in mind when they traded for him. And have been assembling a team according to this plan. And the preseason has been demonstrating clearly the same principles I ID'ed. And anyone who was plugging their ears and going "na nah nah I'm not listening" about the topic is a Depends-wearing old billy goat without the gumption to make a prediction out of fear of having their nose tweaked. That's all

[payitforward]

Dude... did you read my posts above the one you responded to? Which, btw, was not intended critically (tho it's true it would fit better in the "Latvian Laser" thread).

Nothing here for you to tussle about w/ me.

[doclinkin]

Dude... did you read my posts above the one you responded to? Which, btw, was not intended critically (tho it's true it would fit better in the "Latvian Laser" thread).

Nothing here for you to tussle about w/ me.

Bah! That's no fun.

UMBRAGE!




I blame doc for your post