GT #18: Bullets @ Clippers 10:30 PM (NBCSW/1500 AM) [12/1/2019]

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Not to make a big deal out of this comparison, since it doesn't have any particular long term meaning, but Troy Brown has played much much much better than Rui Hachimura this season. A zillion times better.

That's a ridiculous take.

Rui is scoring 22.5 points (per 100 possessions) on a TS% of .529 versus Brown's 15.5 points on a TS% of .494. That's a big gap in scoring impact and defensive attention drawn. Guys are ignoring Brown out there, but they have to respect Hachimura's midrange shot at least.

Your usual retort is to argue about possessions, but Brown has no real advantage there either. He gets 1.3 more steals per 100 possessions than Hachimura, but he gives them right back by committing 1.1 more turnovers (despite a lower usage). Brown has a modest 1.4 rebound edge over Hachimura, but that doesn't make up for the massive scoring, efficiency and gravity discrepancy. Both have been dreadful on defense.

You probably want to argue that Hachimura should be compared to other power forwards while Brown is compared to other small forward, and that, Brown is performing better relative to his position than Hachimura is. That may well be the case, but I think that analysis should factor that Brown isn't really doing the primary thing you need from a small forward: floor spacing. Practically speaking, what makes him any more of a "small forward" than Hachimura?

I could understand someone arguing that Brown hasn't been any worse than Hachimura, or maybe even that he has been slightly better than Hachimura, but to say he's been "a zillion times better" is absurd.

You're right: "a zillion times" is an overstatement -- probably prompted in me by the absurd overstatements from smoothseph & illmatic.

&, yes, certain base line stats should be higher for a 4 than a 3. B/c Troy is an above average rebounder for a 3, he helps you with his rebounding. B/c Rui is below average for a 4, he hurts you. As to what makes Brown a 3 -- in the above statements, it's just who he's on the floor with. Which, obviously, impacts the meaning of a guy's rebounding.

Leaving position aside, however, Troy is still somewhat more productive than Rui at this point. Rui shoots a lot at a TS% well below average for a 4. If you are below average, then the more shots you take the further below average you are overall.

Nonetheless, the comparison was a bad one on my part -- in the sense that it was rhetorical & really it was prompted by the pointless ex cathedra judgments smoothseph had offered, essentially saying that there isn't much to be expected from this 20 year old kid's future. I.e. I was just trying to put a crack in his crystal ball. In fact, Rui & Troy are not obvious examples of guys who should be compared one to the other.

My bad.

[DCZards]

Brown, like Otto, turns down opportunities to attack aggressively because he doesn’t like to invite contact.

He also complains for calls an awful lot.. after watching him closely, I’m not a fan of how he seems to think he’s entitled to FTs every time he throws up some weak attempt. He has to learn how to play through the contact or he will never actually improve.

That sounds an awful lot like 90% of the players in the NBA.

[smoothSeph]

Not to make a big deal out of this comparison, since it doesn't have any particular long term meaning, but Troy Brown has played much much much better than Rui Hachimura this season. A zillion times better.

That's a ridiculous take.

Rui is scoring 22.5 points (per 100 possessions) on a TS% of .529 versus Brown's 15.5 points on a TS% of .494. That's a big gap in scoring impact and defensive attention drawn. Guys are ignoring Brown out there, but they have to respect Hachimura's midrange shot at least.

Your usual retort is to argue about possessions, but Brown has no real advantage there either. He gets 1.3 more steals per 100 possessions than Hachimura, but he gives them right back by committing 1.1 more turnovers (despite a lower usage). Brown has a modest 1.4 rebound edge over Hachimura, but that doesn't make up for the massive scoring, efficiency and gravity discrepancy. Both have been dreadful on defense.

You probably want to argue that Hachimura should be compared to other power forwards while Brown is compared to other small forward, and that, Brown is performing better relative to his position than Hachimura is. That may well be the case, but I think that analysis should factor that Brown isn't really doing the primary thing you need from a small forward: floor spacing. Practically speaking, what makes him any more of a "small forward" than Hachimura?

I could understand someone arguing that Brown hasn't been any worse than Hachimura, or maybe even that he has been slightly better than Hachimura, but to say he's been "a zillion times better" is absurd.

You're right: "a zillion times" is an overstatement -- probably prompted in me by the absurd overstatements from smoothseph & illmatic.

&, yes, certain base line stats should be higher for a 4 than a 3. B/c Troy is an above average rebounder for a 3, he helps you with his rebounding. B/c Rui is below average for a 4, he hurts you. As to what makes Brown a 3 -- in the above statements, it's just who he's on the floor with. Which, obviously, impacts the meaning of a guy's rebounding.

Leaving position aside, however, Troy is still somewhat more productive than Rui at this point. Rui shoots a lot at a TS% well below average for a 4. If you are below average, then the more shots you take the further below average you are overall.

Nonetheless, the comparison was a bad one on my part -- in the sense that it was rhetorical & really it was prompted by the pointless ex cathedra judgments smoothseph had offered, essentially saying that there isn't much to be expected from this 20 year old kid's future. I.e. I was just trying to put a crack in his crystal ball. In fact, Rui & Troy are not obvious examples of guys who should be compared one to the other.

My bad.

Absurd overstatement? Really? I simply said Troy Brown dribbles like he's afraid to get the ball taken. If we're watching the same player anyone can see he settles way too much for pull up and step back jumpers when he can get to the basket. So yes unless he's more aggressive I don't see much there on the offensive side of the ball.

You then went on to speak about his rebounding/steals and compared him to Rui, which is pointless because it has nothing to do with my original statement. But carry on, I don't post on forums to pick arguments.

[payitforward]

I didn't mean to pick a fight with you, smoothSeph; I just let your "absurd overstatement" provoke a somewhat over the top response on my part. Which I then recognized & took back.

In case it wasn't obvious, however, I was not responding to your remark about how Troy dribbles.

This is what I thought was an "absurd overstatement":

...he's only 20 but I think it's safe to not expect much out of him.

I.e. a dismissal of a very gifted 20 year old.

Now... it's possible I misunderstood you. &, if so, I hope you will correct my impression -- I'd be happy if you weren't intending to dismiss him.

[Dat2U]

Not to make a big deal out of this comparison, since it doesn't have any particular long term meaning, but Troy Brown has played much much much better than Rui Hachimura this season. A zillion times better.

That's a ridiculous take.

Rui is scoring 22.5 points (per 100 possessions) on a TS% of .529 versus Brown's 15.5 points on a TS% of .494. That's a big gap in scoring impact and defensive attention drawn. Guys are ignoring Brown out there, but they have to respect Hachimura's midrange shot at least.

Your usual retort is to argue about possessions, but Brown has no real advantage there either. He gets 1.3 more steals per 100 possessions than Hachimura, but he gives them right back by committing 1.1 more turnovers (despite a lower usage). Brown has a modest 1.4 rebound edge over Hachimura, but that doesn't make up for the massive scoring, efficiency and gravity discrepancy. Both have been dreadful on defense.

You probably want to argue that Hachimura should be compared to other power forwards while Brown is compared to other small forward, and that, Brown is performing better relative to his position than Hachimura is. That may well be the case, but I think that analysis should factor that Brown isn't really doing the primary thing you need from a small forward: floor spacing. Practically speaking, what makes him any more of a "small forward" than Hachimura?

I could understand someone arguing that Brown hasn't been any worse than Hachimura, or maybe even that he has been slightly better than Hachimura, but to say he's been "a zillion times better" is absurd.

You're right: "a zillion times" is an overstatement -- probably prompted in me by the absurd overstatements from smoothseph & illmatic.

&, yes, certain base line stats should be higher for a 4 than a 3. B/c Troy is an above average rebounder for a 3, he helps you with his rebounding. B/c Rui is below average for a 4, he hurts you. As to what makes Brown a 3 -- in the above statements, it's just who he's on the floor with. Which, obviously, impacts the meaning of a guy's rebounding.

Leaving position aside, however, Troy is still somewhat more productive than Rui at this point. Rui shoots a lot at a TS% well below average for a 4. If you are below average, then the more shots you take the further below average you are overall.

Nonetheless, the comparison was a bad one on my part -- in the sense that it was rhetorical & really it was prompted by the pointless ex cathedra judgments smoothseph had offered, essentially saying that there isn't much to be expected from this 20 year old kid's future. I.e. I was just trying to put a crack in his crystal ball. In fact, Rui & Troy are not obvious examples of guys who should be compared one to the other.

My bad.

If you could combine the strengths of both players, you'd have a good player.

Long term I'm more worried about Brown. Sure he may rebound well but as a perimeter player, having a reliable jump shot that keeps defenses honest is an absolute must, not just for productivity or spacing sake but Brooks or any coach is going to be less inclined to give a guy minutes when the guy can't consistently make shots.

With Rui, it's the defense and rebounding that's the major concern and as a 4 that's essential. I do believe he'll get more slack from coaches, fans and media because of his relatively polished skillset but his impact will always be muted until he improves his rebounding & defense.

[smoothSeph]

I didn't mean to pick a fight with you, smoothSeph; I just let your "absurd overstatement" provoke a somewhat over the top response on my part. Which I then recognized & took back.

In case it wasn't obvious, however, I was not responding to your remark about how Troy dribbles.

This is what I thought was an "absurd overstatement":

...he's only 20 but I think it's safe to not expect much out of him.

I.e. a dismissal of a very gifted 20 year old.

Now... it's possible I misunderstood you. &, if so, I hope you will correct my impression -- I'd be happy if you weren't intending to dismiss him.

Understandable. The other poster and myself were talking about the offensive side of the ball, which led to his comparison to Otto and Troy having to be a shooter like him.

Everywhere else I think Troy is developing nicely. He rebounds well and has a better than average defensive IQ for his age. I'm not giving up on him as a prospect, but aggression is something you usually don't see developed over time. Hopefully I'm wrong because when Troy is confident he has a smooth offensive skill set.

[Mojo Amok]

Wrong thread...

[payitforward]

I didn't mean to pick a fight with you, smoothSeph; I just let your "absurd overstatement" provoke a somewhat over the top response on my part. Which I then recognized & took back.

In case it wasn't obvious, however, I was not responding to your remark about how Troy dribbles.

This is what I thought was an "absurd overstatement":

...he's only 20 but I think it's safe to not expect much out of him.

I.e. a dismissal of a very gifted 20 year old.

Now... it's possible I misunderstood you. &, if so, I hope you will correct my impression -- I'd be happy if you weren't intending to dismiss him.

Understandable. The other poster and myself were talking about the offensive side of the ball, which led to his comparison to Otto and Troy having to be a shooter like him.

Everywhere else I think Troy is developing nicely. He rebounds well and has a better than average defensive IQ for his age. I'm not giving up on him as a prospect, but aggression is something you usually don't see developed over time. Hopefully I'm wrong because when Troy is confident he has a smooth offensive skill set.

Ok, & fair enough -- I did misunderstand you. My apologies.