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Redraft '24

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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#81 » by nate33 » Sat Nov 9, 2024 3:02 pm

payitforward wrote:For those who would have taken Reed Sheppard over Alex Sarr: you might want to look at Sheppard's numbers so far....

Obviously, all the evidence isn't in --- for either guy!

I always thought Sheppard was a year or two away from being effective.

Generally speaking, the hyper-athletic penetrating point guards like John Wall or Ja Morant tend to be productive at the NBA level almost immediately. But the high skill "game manager" type point guards with mediocre size and athleticism tend to have a slow start - guys like Nash, VanVleet, and Garland. It just takes them a while to figure out how to pick their spots against the length and quickness of NBA defenders.

Right now, Sheppard just doesn't have a tight enough handle to leverage his shooting ability.
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#82 » by The Consiglieri » Sat Nov 9, 2024 3:38 pm

J-Ves wrote:On the day of the draft I would have done Sarr(2), Collier(26), and Flowers(51) and wouldn’t have traded Deni

If I do consider the 14th pick I think I would have went with McCain.


Same, except I have no idea at 51, would have to dig into it. I wanted Deni traded for '25 or '26 assets, not '24, I still largely think that, but early returns suggest they nailed the Bub pick and did way way way better with KyShawn who I was pretty skeptical of. Small sample size so too early to lock in a belief and attitude that they nailed this, but it does look like a better haul than we've seen in a billion years, and in a crapply class no less.
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#83 » by payitforward » Sat Nov 9, 2024 8:46 pm

The Consiglieri wrote:...it does look like a better haul than we've seen in a billion years, and in a crapply class no less.

Agree; Will appears to have done extremely well.

But there was/is no reason to think that he draft was "crappy" overall.

In fact the claim was only that it was thin at the top. Even if that turns out to have been true, '24 still looks to have been quite a deep draft.
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#84 » by tontoz » Sat Nov 9, 2024 9:01 pm

The guy I really wanted at 2 was Topic but that wasn't going to happen after he got hurt. There really wasn't a no brainer pick at that point.

Certainly looks like we nailed the next two picks.
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#85 » by dckingsfan » Sat Nov 9, 2024 9:35 pm

9 and 20
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#86 » by 9 and 20 » Sun Nov 10, 2024 8:43 am

We're a far cry from Isaiah Todd and Johnny Davis, for sure. Pour one would for Tommy S. who was a good dude but as shite as a realgm poster at drafting.
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#87 » by closg00 » Sun Nov 10, 2024 6:58 pm

Stephen Castle acquitted himself well in a starting role last night: 23pts 8-16, 3-7 3’s alongside Chris Paul.
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#88 » by closg00 » Mon Nov 11, 2024 12:53 pm

Someone on here said to the effect that until you have 2-3 guys who can takeover games, you’re never going to be in deep playoff contention.
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#89 » by The Consiglieri » Fri Nov 29, 2024 6:31 am

payitforward wrote:A couple of other things:

1. This thread should be locked the moment the pre-season begins.
2. If you don't list your picks in this thread, we should assume you approve of Will's draft as is.

The reasons for these provisos should be obvious -- at least I hope so!

I can't remember what I thought with the third pick, I know the two guys I was highest on at slot were Sarr at 2, who we took, and I think Collier, and to a lesser extent Dadier.

I didn't really care about Bub much one way or the other, and was rather surprised at how excited people were about him.

Now, consider me very excited, I had no idea this was coming.

George was someone who just didn't sound like something I wanted at all, which is funny because it was the most superficial and instinctual of "oh this sounds like the most typical of busts" and I barely put in any research at all to figure out if there was anything I was missing.

Now I'm watching things play out and am so so so happy with the latter two picks because at least in my view, both seemed like 25-40% chance of hitting picks in one case, and the other even worse and probably more 10-25%, and I think they hit with both of them. I don't know to what degree, but both can clearly play in the league, clearly belong, which in retrospect, after picks like Brown and Johnny Davis, is no mean feat lol.

Quite ecstatic with those selections, at worst they seem like a borderline starter in Bub, and in George, at least a rotational piece that can earn some minutes for sure.

As for Sarr, it's been interesting to read the talk on him. Of the players available when we picked the only guys I was interested in were Sarr, or a trade down for Topic or Salaune. I just wouldn't have taken Shepard, dillingham, the others etc that high. I want a bigger swing on the pick. But regardless, w/Sarr, I'm actually a lot more excited than some, for a guy that's regarded as so raw he's borderline worthless for now as an offensive weapon, he's been genuinely intereting and impactful in games.

What shocks me most is that I think we got 3 genuine worthwhile pieces in what was a just god awful draft. Quite happy w/that, as I viewed this class as one that would contribute little to nothing meaningful to the rebuild, that '25, and '26 were the classes that mattered, and '27 if we got nothing at all out of '24. To come out of 24 w/probably a starter in Bub, a potential starter or key reserve in George, and a guy with a reasonable floor and a genuine ceiling in Sarr is great (at least to me). Definitely seems like they did much better than I would have, at least so far anyway, and I'm pretty confident they did a very good to superb job.
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#90 » by DCZards » Fri Nov 29, 2024 11:49 pm

The Consiglieri wrote:What shocks me most is that I think we got 3 genuine worthwhile pieces in what was a just god awful draft. Quite happy w/that, as I viewed this class as one that would contribute little to nothing meaningful to the rebuild, that '25, and '26 were the classes that mattered, and '27 if we got nothing at all out of '24. To come out of 24 w/probably a starter in Bub, a potential starter or key reserve in George, and a guy with a reasonable floor and a genuine ceiling in Sarr is great (at least to me). Definitely seems like they did much better than I would have, at least so far anyway, and I'm pretty confident they did a very good to superb job.

Agree that the Zards appear to have come away with three good to excellent players in last year’s draft. I definitely share your excitement.

But not sure how you can label it a “god awful draft” when you combine the Zards good fortune with the fact that Stephon Castle, Jared McCain, Zach Edey, Dalton Knecht, Ryan Dunn, Jaylen Wells (the 39th pick) and a few others from the 2025 draft also look like players with a ton of potential.

Was it a god awful draft simply because there weren’t any franchise players in it?
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#91 » by payitforward » Sat Nov 30, 2024 12:22 am

On the money, Zards. No one knows in advance whether a draft will be good, bad, or indifferent overall.
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#92 » by closg00 » Sat Nov 30, 2024 1:15 pm

DCZards wrote:
The Consiglieri wrote:What shocks me most is that I think we got 3 genuine worthwhile pieces in what was a just god awful draft. Quite happy w/that, as I viewed this class as one that would contribute little to nothing meaningful to the rebuild, that '25, and '26 were the classes that mattered, and '27 if we got nothing at all out of '24. To come out of 24 w/probably a starter in Bub, a potential starter or key reserve in George, and a guy with a reasonable floor and a genuine ceiling in Sarr is great (at least to me). Definitely seems like they did much better than I would have, at least so far anyway, and I'm pretty confident they did a very good to superb job.

Agree that the Zards appear to have come away with three good to excellent players in last year’s draft. I definitely share your excitement.

But not sure how you can label it a “god awful draft” when you combine the Zards good fortune with the fact that Stephon Castle, Jared McCain, Zach Edey, Dalton Knecht, Ryan Dunn, Jaylen Wells (the 39th pick) and a few others from the 2025 draft also look like players with a ton of potential.

Was it a god awful draft simply because there weren’t any franchise players in it?


…there are LOT of players from this draft class towel waiving, it’s way too-early to judge this class
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#93 » by DCZards » Sat Nov 30, 2024 3:51 pm

closg00 wrote:
DCZards wrote:
The Consiglieri wrote:What shocks me most is that I think we got 3 genuine worthwhile pieces in what was a just god awful draft. Quite happy w/that, as I viewed this class as one that would contribute little to nothing meaningful to the rebuild, that '25, and '26 were the classes that mattered, and '27 if we got nothing at all out of '24. To come out of 24 w/probably a starter in Bub, a potential starter or key reserve in George, and a guy with a reasonable floor and a genuine ceiling in Sarr is great (at least to me). Definitely seems like they did much better than I would have, at least so far anyway, and I'm pretty confident they did a very good to superb job.

Agree that the Zards appear to have come away with three good to excellent players in last year’s draft. I definitely share your excitement.

But not sure how you can label it a “god awful draft” when you combine the Zards good fortune with the fact that Stephon Castle, Jared McCain, Zach Edey, Dalton Knecht, Ryan Dunn, Jaylen Wells (the 39th pick) and a few others from the 2025 draft also look like players with a ton of potential.

Was it a god awful draft simply because there weren’t any franchise players in it?


…there are LOT of players from this draft class towel waiving, it’s way too-early to judge this class

A lot of this year’s class will end up being towel wavers, which is true of EVERY draft class.
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#94 » by closg00 » Sat Nov 30, 2024 4:38 pm

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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#95 » by The Consiglieri » Sat Nov 30, 2024 5:17 pm

DCZards wrote:
The Consiglieri wrote:What shocks me most is that I think we got 3 genuine worthwhile pieces in what was a just god awful draft. Quite happy w/that, as I viewed this class as one that would contribute little to nothing meaningful to the rebuild, that '25, and '26 were the classes that mattered, and '27 if we got nothing at all out of '24. To come out of 24 w/probably a starter in Bub, a potential starter or key reserve in George, and a guy with a reasonable floor and a genuine ceiling in Sarr is great (at least to me). Definitely seems like they did much better than I would have, at least so far anyway, and I'm pretty confident they did a very good to superb job.

Agree that the Zards appear to have come away with three good to excellent players in last year’s draft. I definitely share your excitement.

But not sure how you can label it a “god awful draft” when you combine the Zards good fortune with the fact that Stephon Castle, Jared McCain, Zach Edey, Dalton Knecht, Ryan Dunn, Jaylen Wells (the 39th pick) and a few others from the 2025 draft also look like players with a ton of potential.

Was it a god awful draft simply because there weren’t any franchise players in it?


You and PIF have both hit out at that, and my view is more specific than that, I acknowledge that the draft was pretty pro forma for prospects outside the blue chip zone/elite level types. So I just refer to it as crap because lets be straight, if none of the prospects are projected to have elite ceilings, and none were, than its a crap draft for what we need because are roster has ZERO elite difference making big 3 candidates, and without those guys, its just chairs moving, the titanic etc. That's why I refer to it that way. We are perfectly adequate as a franchise at acquiring complimentary talent, its the elite, franchise talents we are hopeless at acquiring and we have to at bare minimum get 2 and a ton of attractive complimentary guys, or 3, and having our best tank season play out in the worst top end talent class in decades was a huge disaster. Thankfully we are still quite horrible and will be for a while yet.

Your argument and PIF's that the draft was just fine, at least at the 3rd tier and lower levels is right, my problem, and why I called it and call it crap was that it lacked ceiling level talent in the eyes of all scouts, analytics people etc. Doesn't mean a guy doesn't evolve into that, just means its far less likely and entirely unpredictable as to whom. To have largely maxed out at 2 of the picks, and with Sarr, gotten a lottery ticket that is already not a johnny davis type bust is HUGE.
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#96 » by payitforward » Sat Nov 30, 2024 10:31 pm

I'd say the myth is that there is often super top level talent taken at the top of a draft.

Take a look at picks 2-10 in 2011. Now look at who went at 15, 30 & 60.
Take a look at picks 2, 4 & 5 in 2012. Now look at 34, 35 & 39
Take a look at the top picks in 2013. Now look at 12, 15 & 27
Ditto 2014, 2015, 2017, etc.
2018 a half dozen R2 picks have been better than 2/3 of the lottery.

etc. etc. etc.
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#97 » by The Consiglieri » Sun Dec 1, 2024 12:21 am

It's not a myth, this gets to be a bit of semantics. And I'm never going to agree w/you. My tacit support for your argument is that there is an eventual flattening of tiers that takes place, that, I'll concede, but your strategy of just piling up picks much later is a fools errand to me for a ton of reasons, ranging from the damn near impossibility of reliably finding the elite hits out of the blue chip zone, to the fact that no franchise will ever accept having a half dozen players from a class in their roster. It's just pointless. I'm never going to agree because you're not right about the players that matter most when it comes to franchise changing mega elite talents. Your odds of hitting on them are infinitely higher at the top of the draft, they just are, but is there a tail off and diminishing returns the farther you get away from 1.01, eventually, yeah.
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#98 » by closg00 » Sat Feb 8, 2025 10:38 pm

Isiah Collier was once considered the #1 prospect in the draft briefly, and now that he is getting steady, FT minutes, he is starting to reveal his potential.
In a fantasy re-draft, perhaps our re-do draft is:
2. Sarr
14. McCain
24. Collier
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Just a fun thought exercise, no need to overreact :)
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#99 » by payitforward » Sat Feb 8, 2025 10:50 pm

Has he had a few good games lately or something? Overall, this kid has played @1000 terrible minutes as a rookie.
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Re: Redraft '24 

Post#100 » by closg00 » Sat Feb 8, 2025 11:30 pm

payitforward wrote:Has he had a few good games lately or something? Overall, this kid has played @1000 terrible minutes as a rookie.


True, he had been Sarr awful, but also has shown the upside that once made him the top prospect, he is a good rusher and passer already.

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