Shams: Kuz and Baldwin to Bucks for Middleton, Johnson, '28 Pick Swap

[AFM]

We have no idea. If we get Flagg, if Giannis demands a trade, literally too many variables--to me this is Kuz addition by subtraction plus we got essentially a 2024 1st.

[DCZards]

From the Bleacher Report article on the trade:

Winner: Washington Wizards

Again, Johnson just turned 20 in December. At the draft combine, he measured 6'4.25" without shoes and has a 6'8.5" wingspan and 38-inch max vertical leap.

And he's shown plenty of upside in the G-League as both a scorer and playmaker. In under 30 minutes per game, he's averaging 13.2 points and 3.5 assists for the Wisconsin Herd.

This is exactly the kind of prospect Washington should've been after in any deals with their veterans. Now, they have another young talent to develop alongside Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly and Bub Carrington.

That'll mean plenty more losses for the Wizards in the short term, but they need as many shots at upside as possible. And this deal gives them that with both Johnson and potentially with that future pick swap.

Given the way Kuzma has played this season, Washington got excellent value for him.

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10153664-biggest-winners-and-losers-of-khris-middleton-kyle-kuzma-trade-between-bucks-wizards.amp.html

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Was an additional almost two years of Kuzma worth this return?

Best way to think about it is addition by subtraction at this point, but still feels like the old cleaning up your own mess type situation. Johnson from what I have read was a big readch by the Bucks in last years draft at 23, was projected to go somewhere in the late second. With that said, taking a flyer on him is fine, but spinning this as if we got a 1st round pick for Kuzma isn't accurate. By that logic, we traded a first round pick to them in Baldwin. Pick swap is marginal given the scenario.

Article calling him a reach: https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/basketball/news/bucks-aj-johnson-surprising-pick-at-no-23-to-bucks/

I think the buyout component or if they flip Middleton will be interesting. He's not giving up that player option next year I'd imagine, so is a buyout even feasible unless you say yeah I'm going to eat all of next year too? Assuredly he's better to have around than Kuzma if he stays.

From the Bucks standpoint, Middleton couldn't stay healthy and they have marginal ways they can improve a win-now roster. I actually can see where Kuzma is going to an established team and being the teams 3rd or 4th option being a good, calculated risk for them even though I think Kuzma sucks.

[closg00]

The Bucks board doesnt seem too happy that they included AJ Johnson. I'm very happy that Kuzma is gone and we may get some young talent out of this.

They would have been more upset if they had given-up Tyler Smith, which they did not

They would not have been more upset if they had given up Tyler Smith, which they did not

Read some random online comments, no-doubt some fans would have complained either way.....

[AFM]

Except we know Baldwin is ass. Check the bucks board they are furious they gave up AJ.

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

Interesting. It would be nice to trade him for a worse, more expensive player in exchange for more picks, but there really isn't anyone out there. Michael Porter Jr. perhaps. Bradley Beal would actually make good sense but he has a NTC.

Would Miami give up a FRP if we worked out a 3-way where they turn Butler in Middleton (and get out of the luxtax), Butler goes to a 3rd team, and we get garbage contracts?

[pancakes3]

re: everyone worried that our young guys are going to learn bad habits from Poole, these guys aren't dummies. they know ball and they're on socials. they know everything we know and more.

they know the right way to play, and they know the wrong way to play. they see guys like Brogdon and JV, and they see Poole and Kuz. it's the apathy that's contagious in a locker room, not the stupidity.

[dobrojim]

You can not rule out the positive effect Middleton will have on the kids vs. Kuzma. You don't want Sarr and Bub learning from Kuzma.

Poole is still here too. So until they move Poole, the cancer is still here. And no, I don't believe that Poole is a positive influence, no matter how hard the Gizzards FO tries to positively spin Poole's presence.

This is incredibly unfair to Poole who has played well for us this year

Slightly unfair to Poole perhaps but Poole is like Kuz
in that he produces 2-4 / 10 good games when his shot is falling.

[AFM]

Just noticed AJ Johnson and Kyshawn George were picked back to back.

Furthermore, saw a tweet on the main board from last night saying that this deal has been in the works but the Wiz FO were holding out for AJJ. Pretty sure Ernie would have sent them next year's 1st instead.

[DCZards]

Ironically, Johnson got his first real opportunity with the Bucks on Monday against OKC.

Bucks' AJ Johnson: Productive in extended minutes
By RotoWire Staff
Feb 4, 2025 at 11:06 am ET

Johnson registered 13 points (5-12 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 1-2 FT), four rebounds, four assists and one steal in 29 minutes during Monday's 125-96 loss to the Thunder.

The 23rd overall pick in the 2024 draft saw a significant role for the first time in his career with the Bucks holding out multiple key starters on the second night of a back-to-back set, and Johnson was able to deliver solid numbers

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/basketball/news/bucks-aj-johnson-productive-in-extended-minutes/

[nate33]

I don't understand the Poole hate. Poole isn't a great player or anything, but he has been fine this year. He is as good as or even a bit better than what one could reasonably expect at the time we made the trade.

[The Consiglieri]

According to Chris Haynes, it's a 2028 pick swap. Feels like Dawkins/Winger are banking that the Bucks will be bad in 2028.

2028 is not far enough away. My guess is the pick won't convey.

I think it could be because Giannis' deal expires in '28. At that point, or '26/'27 Giannis will be deciding (if he isn't already dealt) whether he wants to be a career Buck or not. I think with the Bucks pretty consistently sliding down the East ladder the last few years he will probably ask for a trade somewhere between Summer '25 and Deadline '27, and if the Bucks are smart, they'll begin the process of blowing up the team in that window, which would mean their implosion season is either '26-'27, '27-'28 or '28-'29. I think it's basically a dart throw with a 1 in 3 fake chance of them dealing Giannis before the '27-'28 season kicks off, and if that happens, they will crater that year and we may pass them in the standings. Of course any chance of us catching and passing them in '28 will require stuff happening in '25, '26 and '27 far ahead of time (us landing 1-3 superstars in those 3 drafts).

[The Consiglieri]

I don't understand the Poole hate. Poole isn't a great player or anything, but he has been fine this year. He is as good as or even a bit better than what one could reasonably expect at the time we made the trade.

I really think its immaterial as well. The way the trades of a contract like Poole's work, in tandem with his performance, is we have to eat something back even worse, or we have to give somebody prospect/pick goodies to get them to eat it. Since neither of those things are remotely attractive to a team in our position, no matter how much some contingent of the fan base may hate Poole, he's not really tradable without including the risk we have with that "John Wall Contract eating protected 1st" or something even worse. I see no chance we do that, and assume he's basically in the building for us through '27. He'd have to jump up an order of magnitude in terms of production and to a degree, efficiency for any chance of us really sensibly trading him before that.

Considering where we're at right now, I just can't see it making sense for us to do anything other than ride this thing out with sub 20 win seasons in '25, '26 and potentially '27, and then trade him at the '27 deadline, or just play his contract out. The trade idea didn't work out, so be it. Have to spend the $$$ on something etc.

[Rafael122]

According to Chris Haynes, it's a 2028 pick swap. Feels like Dawkins/Winger are banking that the Bucks will be bad in 2028.

2028 is not far enough away. My guess is the pick won't convey.

I think it could be because Giannis' deal expires in '28. At that point, or '26/'27 Giannis will be deciding (if he isn't already dealt) whether he wants to be a career Buck or not. I think with the Bucks pretty consistently sliding down the East ladder the last few years he will probably ask for a trade somewhere between Summer '25 and Deadline '27, and if the Bucks are smart, they'll begin the process of blowing up the team in that window, which would mean their implosion season is either '26-'27, '27-'28 or '28-'29. I think it's basically a dart throw with a 1 in 3 fake chance of them dealing Giannis before the '27-'28 season kicks off, and if that happens, they will crater that year and we may pass them in the standings. Of course any chance of us catching and passing them in '28 will require stuff happening in '25, '26 and '27 far ahead of time (us landing 1-3 superstars in those 3 drafts).

Giannis will be 31 next season, Dame will be 35. Portis and Pat C have player options that they will most likely pick up. Between Kuz, Giannis and Dame they've got $130 million tied into those 3. They can't draft worth a damn. If they trade Giannis to Houston, they're getting a ton of picks back but probably no impact players. So yeah, I could see this falling off a cliff for them here shortly.

[Zonkerbl]

POOLE IS AN AMAZING HUMAN BEING WHO LOVES CATS

ALL HAIL POOLE

Yes a pass first pg would be a better fit but he's not a fricking "cancer" who's holding anybody back. He contributes, he's a good person. JHC people.

https://www.essentiallysports.com/nba-active-basketball-news-jordan-poole-admits-forcing-stephen-curry-s-family-decision-with-ayesha-as-secret-nba-society-gets-revealed/

[chonestown]

They would have been more upset if they had given-up Tyler Smith, which they did not

They would not have been more upset if they had given up Tyler Smith, which they did not

Read some random online comments, no-doubt some fans would have complained either way.....

Online is one thing, rgm is another.

Smith tops out as a playable stretch 4. Useful, but nowhere near Johnson's ceiling.

Not sure how you came up with that characterization of how Bucks fans viewed AJ's departure, but interesting things discovered in the rectums of people every day with nary an explanation.

[closg00]

Ironically, Johnson got his first real opportunity with the Bucks on Monday against OKC.

Bucks' AJ Johnson: Productive in extended minutes
By RotoWire Staff
Feb 4, 2025 at 11:06 am ET

Johnson registered 13 points (5-12 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 1-2 FT), four rebounds, four assists and one steal in 29 minutes during Monday's 125-96 loss to the Thunder.

The 23rd overall pick in the 2024 draft saw a significant role for the first time in his career with the Bucks holding out multiple key starters on the second night of a back-to-back set, and Johnson was able to deliver solid numbers

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/basketball/news/bucks-aj-johnson-productive-in-extended-minutes/

Did time in the G-League all season, I wonder what the fate of Butler will be....

[gambitx777]

So, I guess this depends on a couple things

A little miffed we added a second but let's see what that second actually is. If it's fake or ours or one of those weird ones we had.

Baldwin isn't good but he's looked at as a good 3 pt shooter and I'm not thrilled about adding him in when he could have been used else where. Or kept. Or we could have tossed in gill or Davis instead. But again not a big deal.

The pick swaps is good. No complaints there.

I guess if you wanna do some mental gymnastics you can say we traded Kuz for a first cuz AJ is the rookie who was taken with he 23 pick last year lol but that's a bit extra.

AJ I'm over the moon about hea really interesting. That being said we now have 4 rookies from that draft.

Over all in fine with the trade! Only weeks id have made. Not including a second at all. Getting a second from them. And maybe getting the draft rights to Hugo besson . But over all decent trade we needed to get Kuz gone he was a cancer at this point and all the young guys play much better with out him.


Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

[doclinkin]

I think the buyout component or if they flip Middleton will be interesting. He's not giving up that player option next year I'd imagine, so is a buyout even feasible unless you say yeah I'm going to eat all of next year too? Assuredly he's better to have around than Kuzma if he stays.

People lose track of the 90% rule. You have to pay somebody. Or else you lose out on those dollars from teams like the Bucks. (Or Phoenix and their $164m tax penalty).

Before this trade deadline there were 13 tax paying teams.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/tax/_/year/2024/sort/tax_total

Every team that could will try to drop below the tax threshold because of the increasing penalties for yearly violations. However, every OTHER team ends up with a slice of that cash, UNLESS they fail to field a team that fills 90% of the cap. Bad business to lose out on free money. Especially for a team that isn't going to be selling out many executive suites and season ticket packages.

Here we paid Poole, Brogdon and Kuzma to fill our cap. The rest of the team costs nothing. Especially as we fill the roster with young players on rookie contracts. Especially those who are later picks.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/washington-wizards/overview/_/year/2024

Its not easy to fill a roster to 90% of pay while still tanking. You pretty much have to load up on a few large expiring contracts of injured players. Players who used to be good enough to earn a massive contract, but no longer contribute to winning like they once did.

Given that Brogdon is expiring, and we traded Kuzma, I would not be surprised if we hang on to Middleton, welcome his player option, rehab his value, then trade him mid year next year as a large expiring contract, flipped for a similar situation: picks and another short term large deal.

He's a smart player with a winning resume, plays the right way, good character. Just happens to be recuperating from injury. Not a bad player to have around young cats who are on their way up.

[gesa2]

With the addition of AJ Johnson the Zards now have four 19-20 yr olds from the first round of the 2024 draft.

Don’t know how any of these youngins’ will turn out, but when you’re rebuilding it’s smart to have as many bites of the apple as possible.

We basically reverse engineered a PIF draft! One of them has to hit now