Official Countdown to Firing"NoLowPostOffense"Grunfeld

[LyricalRico]

Let us not forget Veremeenko & PJR, the softies from the past.

Actually, from what I've read about him, VV is supposed to be a hard nosed player. Of course that's by Euro standards so it may not mean much but it has to mean something. He certainly held his own in Summer League in July. Nothing spectacular but I wouldn't equate him with Ramos. I wouldn't mind him being our 15 man next year.

To your larger point about Grunfeld, I'll agree that he has gone for offensive potential moreso than gritty toughness. But most teams go that route, which creates a situaiton where you can find hard nosed guys anywhere. Just look at the W's cutting Richard Hendrix today. I would actually prefer my team's GM to use picks on guys with upside and fill in the toughness gaps with cheap FAs.

That being said, Grunfeld hasn't picked up the cheap, gritty FAs for this team. I liked the Stevenson pick up when it was for one year at the minimum. But EG hasn't continued that pattern. He's missed out on guys like Azubuike, Landry, Barnes, Evans, and others in favor of overpriced finesse players like Songaila. That's where I fault him. Not on his draft picks but on his FA choices.

Hopefully that will change with the hiring of a defensive minded coach.

[yungal07]

I disagree with you about Song. He is not a finesse player. He may be a perimeter shooting big, but he doesn't shy away from contact (see Magic game).

[W. Unseld]

I disagree with you about Song. He is not a finesse player. He may be a perimeter shooting big, but he doesn't shy away from contact (see Magic game).

I agree w/yunga. Song isn't a good rebounder but if you watch him close up and live he's not only physical but plays dirty or "with veteran saavy" if you prefer.

[mhd]

Yeah, Songs has some rough play about his game. He's earning his contract now. I wish he could rebound better. Unlike D-suckashawn, he's actually contributed this year.

[jimij]

One thing in Ernie's defense on his draft record is that for most of his tenure here he's been drafting guys who he thought could fit into EJ's offensive system. With a different coach and different philosopy, he probably would have selected somewhat differently (especially in regards to Pech).

[yungal07]

One thing in Ernie's defense on his draft record is that for most of his tenure here he's been drafting guys who he thought could fit into EJ's offensive system. With a different coach and different philosopy, he probably would have selected somewhat differently (especially in regards to Pech).

Exactly. That's why he didn't draft Milsapp. Too much low post in his game for Eddie Jordan's offense.

[nate33]

I hate in when people criticize GM's for not drafting that one second round steal. Every year, somebody slips through the first round and ends up surprising people. You can bash EG all you want, but about 25 other GM's missed out on Millsap after EG did.

By that logic, every single GM working in the league in 2001 sucks because they all missed out on Arenas. Every GM that missed Carlos Boozer in 2002 sucks. Every GM that missed Monta Ellis sucks. Every GM employed when Ben Wallace didn't even get drafted sucks.

The bottom line is that there weren't many players drafted after Pecherov in that draft that have amounted to much in this league. Balkman, Boone, Farmar, Millsap and Powe were the only decent players drafted among the 42 picks following Pecherov.

[yungal07]

And Rondo.

[Dat2U]

The bottom line is that there weren't many players drafted after Pecherov in that draft that have amounted to much in this league. Balkman, Boone, Farmar, Millsap and Powe were the only decent players drafted among the 42 picks following Pecherov.

And you'd be hard pressed to find many players drafted AFTER Pecherov that have accomplished LESS than what Pech has.

And your list is a bit short.

20. F Renaldo Balkman
21. G Rajon Rondo
23. F Josh Boone
24. G Kyle Lowry
26. G Jordan Farmar
27. G Sergio Rodriguez
36. F Craig Smith
42. G Daniel Gibson
47. F Paul Millsap
49. F Leon Powe

Guys not drafted who have stuck in the league:
G Jose Juan Barea
G Tarence Kinsey
G Chris Quinn
G C.J. Watson

I think its not fair to blame him for drafting Vladimir Veremeenko with the 48th pick in the draft b/c late 2nd round picks are a complete crapshoot but I have no problem criticizing the Pecherov pick b/c I criticized it when it was made and thought it wasn't what was needed on the roster at the time.

EG seemed to be on some kick about acquiring unathletic pick & pop Fs who offered little in terms of defense. The Pech pick at #19, the VV plck at #47 & the Darius Songaila signing in FA. While all may have theoretically filled a role in the Princeton offensive system as a big man that could shoot, none addressed the long standing defensive concerns. None addressed the need for defensive rebounding. It was a mistake then and now its only been confirmed.

Ernie deserves alot of criticism for the moves he's made. And honestly, I'm sick and tired of people giving him a pass like Abe Pollin, while sucking on a feeding tube and breathing through a respirator is holding a gun to his head on all his moves.

Before the mind blowing trade a few weeks ago which snared the incomparable Mike James, Ernie hadn't made a trade in over 3+ years. He foolishly stood pat on a false notion that a brief one week period two years ago where the Wizards were on top of an extremely weak conference was some kind of indicator that all was good with the roster. He decided that passively waiting for perfect health was the way to go. It's time someone held his feet to the fire.

[go'stags]

So, you must know what trades he passed up that would have vaulted us to championshio contendership[is that a word?}...Please shae if that is the case.

Yes, the Pecherov pick wasnt a good one, but it was a terrible pick anyway, and a lot of guys people on this board were calling for suck too [James White, for example].

EG has drafted us 4 guys with nice potential in one way or another, in Mcguire[good defender and rebounder], Young {great athlete and scorer, Mcgee [freak athlete, skilled, a great pick], and Blatche [skilled, fairly athletic, big].

So including the Pecherov miss, which again was in a weak draft, he aquired 4 very talented players in 3 drafts, when he never picked above 16. This does not take into account Vereemko, who could be a solid role player, but no one really knows on that. Then he also basically stole Crittenton, as Daniels was not going to save this season anyway.

You can argue how each of those players fit with this team, but role players are much easier to find then above average or star players. Thats the point of the draft.

Then take into account he signed Gil when a lot of people thought he over paid, when it actually turned into a steal. Or when he commited highway robbery by trading Kwame for Caron.

The Daniels move was a good one as well. Daniels was very productive for a few years, and still will be now that he doesnt have to play 35+ minutes.

He probably overpaid Songaila, or gave him too many years, but Songailia is still a productive player. He is not some end of the bench scrub like many other teams have making as much if not more money.

Etan was a glaring mistake, but that may have had something to do with Abe.

Also, on your list there are only 4 fowards, only 2 of which were picked in the first round. It didnt make sense for us to pick a PG at that time.

[Dat2U]

So, you must know what trades he passed up that would have vaulted us to championshio contendership[is that a word?}...Please shae if that is the case.

Well were not privy to all the talks that go on b/w GMs but we all know Pau Gasol was available last year and all that was required was a large expiring contract, a prospect or two & a pick. All of which we had.

We also know that Antawn Jamison, with said expiring contract, was viewed as "untouchable" by management, which in my humble opinion was not a very good position to take.

Yes, the Pecherov pick wasnt a good one, but it was a terrible pick anyway, and a lot of guys people on this board were calling for suck too [James White, for example].

EG has drafted us 4 guys with nice potential in one way or another, in Mcguire[good defender and rebounder], Young {great athlete and scorer, Mcgee [freak athlete, skilled, a great pick], and Blatche [skilled, fairly athletic, big].

So including the Pecherov miss, which again was in a weak draft, he aquired 4 very talented players in 3 drafts, when he never picked above 16. This does not take into account Vereemko, who could be a solid role player, but no one really knows on that. Then he also basically stole Crittenton, as Daniels was not going to save this season anyway.

You can argue how each of those players fit with this team, but role players are much easier to find then above average or star players. Thats the point of the draft.

Veremeenko is not an NBA player. Anyone who watched the summer league saw this. He's not even close. I wager a damn good amount of money that he never sets foot in the NBA. He's more of a banger than Pech, but he's PF stuck in an undersized, weak & relatively unathletic body.

Sure, EG drafted guys with potential but is any of it actualized? Can you rely on any of the four players mentioned as a rotation player over an 82 game season yet? Blatche was an excellent pick as a 2nd rounder. That's fine. McGee was also a good pick at his position based on what we've seen thus far. But none of this amazing ability has led to a whole lot of production or reliability yet.

As for McGuire. He's shown glimpses of an NBA game, but I think your stretching it a bit to put that as a feather in the cap of GMEG's drafting skills. He may or may not be in the team's plans beyond this year. He's yet to prove himself as anything beyond possibly a Darvin Ham type player at this stage.

As for Young, he's still a one trick pony. He's still got a low b-ball IQ and right now he uses so little of his talent that it's a shame. That fadeway of his will be his undoing. The fact he hasn't forced the organization into rethinking its decision to keep giving DeShawn the bulk of the SG minutes is a red flag in its self.

One thing in common with all these players, there's not much b-ball IQ to be found, especially with Blatche & Young. Dumb teams don't win many games in the NBA.

And I'm not sure how you can say we stole Crittenton. What was there to steal? What has he shown to say "hey, that guy is worth stealing and selling our soul so that we'll take Mike James too". A guy has to show actual production before we are ready to crown him as a key piece of the future.

Then take into account he signed Gil when a lot of people thought he over paid, when it actually turned into a steal. Or when he commited highway robbery by trading Kwame for Caron.

The Gil signing was his best move. I supported it at the time and Gil helped turn around this franchise. Problem is, that was like 5+ years ago. Caron was his 2nd best move, also his last trade before his 3+ year sabbatical into the continuity wilderness and forest of mediocrity.

The Daniels move was a good one as well. Daniels was very productive for a few years, and still will be now that he doesnt have to play 35+ minutes.

Bleh, Giving AD 5 years was stupid considering his age & the fact no one else offered him more than 3 yrs. If you consider showing up only for the 2nd half of the season productive then we're on a different page. I thought it was an 82 game season, and every single year in DC, AD stunk up until half the season was over. I've long said AD should give half his salary back b/c he never bothered showing up for the first 41 games each year.

He probably overpaid Songaila, or gave him too many years, but Songailia is still a productive player. He is not some end of the bench scrub like many other teams have making as much if not more money.

Yes he overpaid Songaila and Stevenson... And the thought among many on this board is that they are relatively productive role players who make an average salary. Unfortunately, when your roster is filled with these guys (AD & Etan included) on long term deals, you end up having the bulk of your cap room tied up in average-ness. No room to improve, no room to add any additional pieces. Your just stuck in purgatory. Just like we were before this year's meltdown.

Etan was a glaring mistake, but that may have had something to do with Abe.

That may have very well been Abe, as is reported by Ivan...but it's also the only reported involvement of Abe which has been documented. It seems like to many on here Abe has his hand in alot of the other decisions, because apparently Ernie is too smart to make such mistakes. I just don't believe that to be the case.

Also, on your list there are only 4 fowards, only 2 of which were picked in the first round. It didnt make sense for us to pick a PG at that time.

I disagree, we've been crying for a quick PG that was capable of guarding guys on the perimeter for years. AD couldn't keep up with the quicker guys in the league and Gil didn't show the inclination to do so.

[BanndNDC]

One thing in common with all these players, there's not much b-ball IQ to be found, especially with Blatche & Young. Dumb teams don't win many games in the NBA.

that's my biggest problem with the team as currently constructed.

in the span of 3 years we've gone from being one of the smartest overachieving teams in the league to the exact opposite.

im pessimistic but im resigned to withholding final judgment till after the draft.

if the plan is just to tank, hold pat and pray we get super lucky in the lottery then i fear we are going nowhere.

[hands11]

I'm not as down on some of the moves that were just talked about as much as I am about letting a player like RM walk. You talk about basketball IQ, personality and heart, I give you RM.

I would have traded DS and kept RM. I tired of DS a while ago and the Lebron thing was the last straw. Man could we really use a guy like RM right now.

Loosing Haywood and RM was just to much for this team to overcome because McGee is to new, Blatche never got enough burn, DS sucks and NY wasn't ready or mature enough and we already needed depth at PG from last year. Well, like it or not but we did something about the PG position. Now we have 2 new options. One ready to roll today and one in the chamber.

So now we Blatche, NY and James to step it up. Your talking about 3 out of 5 positions. CB and AJ can't do it on there own.

Nut the biggest lose was Haywood cuz if we had him we would a much better vet core were Blatche would step in.

Haywood/AJ/CB
Haywood/Blatche/CB
Haywood, Blatche/AJ/CB
Haywood/DSONG, CB

That would have been enough talent and veteran leadership so that you could plug in less established player to groom. NY, DMAC, and McGee

Then add RM and loose DS and we would be a solid team.

This team isn't nearly as bad as it looks right now so EG doesn't suck as back as it looks.

Basically the next moves are to upgrade Etan, OP and DS and get Haywood and GA back.

[cwb3]

The thing about Pech is that when he first came into the league, he looked like a guy who willing to scrap inside and fight for rebounds. While clearly needing time in the weight room, I do recall being impressed with him in Summer League for fighting for inside position and not minding getting into people's faces. Granted Summer League is a world away from the regular NBA season. But Pech needs to get those gritty instincts again.

There is no reason why he and Blatche can't add some muscle mass and train in the offseason to acquire more classic PF skills (offensively and defensively) to go alongside their perimater games. They both have talent and potential to develop additional skills to enhance thier natural talents.

I'm not saying Pech is starter material but he could become an interesting off the bench game changer at the 4 or the 3. Blatche on the other hand should become a decent starter but really needs to toughen up and develop some more of the classic PF skills.

McGee just needs PT and weight training. In a couple years he ought to be very serviceable at the 5 and perhaps even the 4. Once Haywood is back, he will have a few years to learn and increase minutes as Haywoods backup and eventual replacement.

I think EG has drafted and aquired good talent and potential. What they now need is better player skil development and better offensive/defensive schemes. What is clear is that without Gil, the "Princeton" offense is DOA with the rest of the Wizards squad.

[jholmbe1]

I'll give Ernie next year and if we still underachieve then I will call for his head. We need to give him a year with his own coach, whoever that might be. Also, a 100% Gil and Haywood and improved youngsters might have us all saying what a genius EG is next year.

[nate33]

I think the biggest problem is this stupid "Princeton Offense". As far as I can tell, it's an offense that, at best, is able to put good offensive players in one-on-one isolation. That's better than nothing, but it's still not as good as an offense that gets people wide open shots or easy drives. The only way this offense works is if you have 3 or more really good offensive players on the floor at the same time. But it's just not reasonable to expect to be able to field 3 really good offensive players while also having enough good defenders to play sound defense. Since you can generally only "hide" one lousy defensive player, we need 2 of our good offensive players to also be average or better defenders. That's rare in this league.

EJ's offense was a failure in New Jersey. They were well below-average offensively, and would have ranked even worse if it weren't for their running game. EJ's offense was a failure here until Arenas came aboard. And even then it was only good when Arenas, Butler (or Hughes) and Jamison were on the court together. Take one of those guys out and the offense sputtered.

Furthermore, the offense is complicated and takes players forever to learn. That makes in-season trades difficult and it makes management less willing to trade away guys because of all the effort that went into training them. It forces EG to trade for guys like Songaila and James simply because they have had some exposure to the system.

Finally, the offense requires big men with finesse skills (passing, shooting, ball handling) that rarely overlap with toughness and defensive skills. We end up acquiring a guy like Jamison and paying him $13M a year, when, under a different system, we'd be just as good with a guy like Haslem at $6M a year.

It's time to simplify the system. We need to go with more classic pro sets based on pick-and-rolls. We need our players to just be able to play ball without having to think so much about where they should be on the court. We need a defense that denies the three pointer and the lane and just gives up midrange shots. We need to trade Jamison for a guy with equivalent talent, but more defensively oriented. We need to bench Stevenson until he can make 100 jumpers in a row in practice.

[Severn Hoos]

I'll give Ernie next year and if we still underachieve then I will call for his head. We need to give him a year with his own coach, whoever that might be. Also, a 100% Gil and Haywood and improved youngsters and Blake Griffin might have us all saying what a genius EG is next year.

Fixed.


Actually, I agree that Ernie has done fairly well overall in acquiring talent. Dat is right that you can't have a roster full of MLE-type players, that's the definition of mediocrity. But you also can't have 3 Max players and 12 Minimum salary types. You need some of those in between guys, just not one every year.

Another thing that's not brought up too often in evaluating Grunfeld is the way he has retained guys - and the moves he didn't make. Re-signing Haywood at a very reasonable rate was a great move that I hope he repeats in a year or two for another 3-4 seasons. Giving Butler his contract before his first game as a Wizard was pretty roundly criticized here, but looks pretty good in hindsight. And perhaps most importantly, not panicking and trading Haywood last year was the best move he (n)ever made.

With 20/20 hindsight, here's what I would have done differently (only based on what we do know, not speculations):

* Told Abe NO WAY on matching Etan's offer sheet. (Yes, I do believe Abe made that call).
* Drafted Lowry instead of Pech.
* Drafted Rudy Fernandez instead of Nick Young.
* Maybe drafted Chalmers instead of McGee (was my choice going into the draft last year) - but obviously not if they had Lowry on the team.

Sure, I would have liked to have given one less year to Daniels and Songaila, or paid less to those two and Stevenson, but that's the point of negotiations - maybe that's what it took to get the deals done. And for the complaining about these guys eating cap room, remember that only AD is making MLE money, the other two are less. (Etan's the real culprit here.)

I actually think the DS signing was (and could be again) a good one. He's horrendous this year, but then it IS a 4-19 team. I'll at least see what he does when he's healthy and playing the role he was brought in to do before completely blasting him. He played that role reasonably well for the past two seasons, so he may be able to do it again.

Of course, it would have been really nice if Ernie had been able to come on board before the draft in 2003. If he had been in place to hire his own coach and draft/trade accordingly, things might have looked very different over the past 5 years. And not just that one draft class (though we might have taken Boozer, Prince, West, Pietrus, Collison, Korver - you get the idea), but the fact that every decision from that point forward was based on fitting EJ's System. But that truly is ancient history...

And finally, for those lamenting the Jamison signing, at some point you have to take Gil at his word and figure he meant it when he said he wouldn't re-sign without AJ here. So if you're OK with a team with no AJ and no Arenas, then fine - but the "replacement" might have been guys like Brand (unlikely even if we had the cap space) or Maggette - again, right back into Mediocrity Central.

[dandridge 10]

I'll give Ernie next year and if we still underachieve then I will call for his head. We need to give him a year with his own coach, whoever that might be. Also, a 100% Gil and Haywood and improved youngsters might have us all saying what a genius EG is next year.

Exactly. Boston Celtics fans were calling for Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers head two years ago. I bet no one is calling for their heads now. In fact, many people are talking about Doc Rivers as coach of the year, and Danny Ainge as a savvy GM.

Its easy for fans to sit in their armchairs, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight and no financial stake in the matter, and pick apart decisions made by GMs and coaches. Unfortunately, GMs and coaches don't have the same luxury. With respect to EG, I think he has done a pretty good job given what he has had to work with. He has not had a top 10 pick since he has been here. When you get into the teens in the draft, it is pretty much a crapshoot. When it gets to the second round, you just hope the player can be make the team and at least get spot duty. Pecherov does not appear as though he is going to work out. However, Young and McGee appear as though could be solid contributors in the years to come. That is what you at least hope for with a middle first rounder. With respect to Blatche and McGuire, both were second rounders and are playing fairly significant minutes now and contributing. Although I am not a big Blatche fan, I do recognize that he was a good second round pick. Again, I think they both have exceeded expectations for being second round draft picks.

With respect to trades and free agent signings, I think EG has also done a good job, given confines of the luxury tax and what he had to work with. He got Butler for basically a ham sandwich. He made good decisions regarding letting Hughes and Jeffries go. Although Etan turned out to be a mistake, at the time the decision was made, it appeared that Etan could have been a very solid back-up center. I think Songalia was a good pick up given the type of offense Jordan ran. Daniels, while his contract could have been shorter, appeared to be quality back-up point guard.

Its easy to look at some of the free agent signings and draft picks now and say they were a failure. However, AT THE TIME THEY WERE MADE, I don't know if I strongly disagreed with the decisions. It is apparent EG's approach was to build around Arenas, Butler, Jamison and Haywood as the core. The players that were brought in were brought in to compliment the core. However, without the core healthy, players are now expected to all of a sudden be more than complimentary pieces. To say that EG failed because those players are not playing above what was expected of them is a bit unfair.

Finally, it is also unfair to criticize EG for not making more trades when we don't know what is going on behind the scenes. For example, Dat wonders why we couldn't have gotten in on the Gasol trade. How do you know that EG wasn't in the mix? How do you know EG didn't offer the package that you proposed? You don't.

Finally, its funny that some of the people who hated EJ are the same people that are criticizing EG now. As Doc once pointed out, you can't have it both ways. You can't argue that EJ was a terrible coach because he didn't know how to utilize the talent he had, and at the same time criticize EG for not bringing in the necessary talent.

The bottom line is that when fully healthy, the Wizards will likely be a good team. As currently constructed, I don't think a fully healthy team would be a championship team. However, as the Celtics learned, all it takes is a good draft pick (Rondo) and one trade here or there to transform a team from a bottom of the pit team to a championship team.

[LyricalRico]

I think the biggest problem is this stupid "Princeton Offense". As far as I can tell, it's an offense that, at best, is able to put good offensive players in one-on-one isolation. That's better than nothing, but it's still not as good as an offense that gets people wide open shots or easy drives. The only way this offense works is if you have 3 or more really good offensive players on the floor at the same time. But it's just not reasonable to expect to be able to field 3 really good offensive players while also having enough good defenders to play sound defense. Since you can generally only "hide" one lousy defensive player, we need 2 of our good offensive players to also be average or better defenders. That's rare in this league.

EJ's offense was a failure in New Jersey. They were well below-average offensively, and would have ranked even worse if it weren't for their running game. EJ's offense was a failure here until Arenas came aboard. And even then it was only good when Arenas, Butler (or Hughes) and Jamison were on the court together. Take one of those guys out and the offense sputtered.

Furthermore, the offense is complicated and takes players forever to learn. That makes in-season trades difficult and it makes management less willing to trade away guys because of all the effort that went into training them. It forces EG to trade for guys like Songaila and James simply because they have had some exposure to the system.

Finally, the offense requires big men with finesse skills (passing, shooting, ball handling) that rarely overlap with toughness and defensive skills. We end up acquiring a guy like Jamison and paying him $13M a year, when, under a different system, we'd be just as good with a guy like Haslem at $6M a year.

It's time to simplify the system. We need to go with more classic pro sets based on pick-and-rolls. We need our players to just be able to play ball without having to think so much about where they should be on the court. We need a defense that denies the three pointer and the lane and just gives up midrange shots. We need to trade Jamison for a guy with equivalent talent, but more defensively oriented. We need to bench Stevenson until he can make 100 jumpers in a row in practice.

HOF post, nate.

[fishercob]

Nate, I'm surprised. Doesn't the Wiz's record of offensive efficiency under EJ speak for itself? Yeah, the offense works much better with Gilbert than AD. It worked better in Sacramento because they had better players. It worked worse in New Jersey because they had worse players. The Wiz havent been any less than what they could be because of their offensive sets. Do you really think if you put these players in the triangle, flex, motion, 4 corners, etc., the results would be any different?

It comes back to the simple fact that the NBA is a players league. The team with the better players generally win. Did Riley lose his coaching mojo when Wade got hurt and Shaq broke down? Of course not -- he lost all his talent.

The offense is not what needs fixing on this team. If Tommy Tibbs becomes our HC next year, I would have no problem with him keeping the offense and turning it over to a qualified offensive assistant. Maybe EJ will be available