Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space?

[JonathanJoseph]

Ruz & Kanye,

The salary layout:

If we did move Gil for Vince this season, we'd probably be on the books for around $30.5-$32.5 million for the 2012 season. That's with Carter for $4 million, which does count - along with Hinriki, Wall, Blatche, McGee, Seraphin, Booker, the 2011 pick and the requisite number of minimum cap holds. That is renouncing Young, Thronton and Yi, though. The exact figure would depend on our draft pick and that also affects the later years too.

If you plug in Blatche and McGee at a combined $20 million in 2013 and add another draft pick, we're probably in the range of about $37-$39 million for that season (the roster is the same except we lose Hinklerick). I think it's safe to plug that draft pick as being more like $2 million-ish at this point.

The year after that, 2014, we might be somewhere around $43-$46 million (that's counting Blatche and McGee at flat salaries that don't increase, so still at $20 million). That's Wall, Dray, McGee, Seraphin, Booker, 2011 1st, 2012 1st, 2013 1st and 4 minimum cap holds.

I think it's pretty safe to say you'd have max slots through the 2013 season, though obviously that changes if you bite into it and we don't know the exact cap figures. The Dray and McGee numbers are a variable too, but $20 million a year under the new CBA isn't a terrible guess.

Edit to add --> OK, I see the question is also how much space do we have if we keep Gil. If we plug in $2 million for the 1st rounder and renounce the restricted guys (Young, Yi and Thornton), we're just over $45 million committed (with the minimum cap holds accounted for). Hard to predict what that means with the new CBA coming as wild alterations could happen, including potentially existing contracts being forcibly decreased.

Right. All this is to say that by dumping Arenas we would likely have the chance to overpay someone like Joe Johnson or bring in a couple of 2nd tier guys, neither combination of which produces like the hobbled-Arenas.

[Hoopalotta]

Ruz & Kanye,

The salary layout:

If we did move Gil for Vince this season, we'd probably be on the books for around $30.5-$32.5 million for the 2012 season. That's with Carter for $4 million, which does count - along with Hinriki, Wall, Blatche, McGee, Seraphin, Booker, the 2011 pick and the requisite number of minimum cap holds. That is renouncing Young, Thronton and Yi, though. The exact figure would depend on our draft pick and that also affects the later years too.

If you plug in Blatche and McGee at a combined $20 million in 2013 and add another draft pick, we're probably in the range of about $37-$39 million for that season (the roster is the same except we lose Hinklerick). I think it's safe to plug that draft pick as being more like $2 million-ish at this point.

The year after that, 2014, we might be somewhere around $43-$46 million (that's counting Blatche and McGee at flat salaries that don't increase, so still at $20 million). That's Wall, Dray, McGee, Seraphin, Booker, 2011 1st, 2012 1st, 2013 1st and 4 minimum cap holds.

I think it's pretty safe to say you'd have max slots through the 2013 season, though obviously that changes if you bite into it and we don't know the exact cap figures. The Dray and McGee numbers are a variable too, but $20 million a year under the new CBA isn't a terrible guess.

Edit to add --> OK, I see the question is also how much space do we have if we keep Gil. If we plug in $2 million for the 1st rounder and renounce the restricted guys (Young, Yi and Thornton), we're just over $45 million committed (with the minimum cap holds accounted for). Hard to predict what that means with the new CBA coming as wild alterations could happen, including potentially existing contracts being forcibly decreased.

Right. All this is to say that by dumping Arenas we would likely have the chance to overpay someone like Joe Johnson or bring in a couple of 2nd tier guys, neither combination of which produces like the hobbled-Arenas.

That's kind of like the Spanish Clergy's reaction to telescopes in the early 17th century.

[WizStorm]

Very good. Now, we know where the 35 mil came from and why it has no basis in reality.

And if you actually read what I wrote, you would see that is exactly what I said.

If this quote is what you're talking about

Sure my analogy is false, just like yours was.

you did it in an obviously mis-leading way.

Nope, what I wrote was:

My question then would be if Vince Carter was a FA, would you pursue him for a 2 year, 35 million deal (with a $4 million buyout clause on the 2nd year) and also possibly give up a 1st round draft pick in order to sign him?

In what way is what I wrote incorrect or false concerning his salary or the proposed deal?

[AceDegenerate]

I think I'm Big Meech.

[Ruzious]

Nope, what I wrote was:

My question then would be if Vince Carter was a FA, would you pursue him for a 2 year, 35 million deal (with a $4 million buyout clause on the 2nd year) and also possibly give up a 1st round draft pick in order to sign him?

In what way is what I wrote incorrect or false concerning his salary or the proposed deal?

My apologies - I missed the part in parenthesis and don't understand why you said "to possibly give up a 1st round draft pick...".

[WizStorm]

Nope, what I wrote was:

My question then would be if Vince Carter was a FA, would you pursue him for a 2 year, 35 million deal (with a $4 million buyout clause on the 2nd year) and also possibly give up a 1st round draft pick in order to sign him?

In what way is what I wrote incorrect or false concerning his salary or the proposed deal?

My apologies - I missed the part in parenthesis and don't understand why you said "to possibly give up a 1st round draft pick...".

NP... the 1st round draft pick is because of the latest batch of rumors suggesting the Wizards would also give up a 1st round pick in a Gil/Carter swap. But again, the only point of the hypothetical was to provide a counter-point to the would you resign Gil to 4/80 hypothetical as opposed to not signing him at all (which is not possible unless you pair it with my false hypothetical).

[Ruzious]

Gotcha, Stormy. I'm no longer confused.

[nate33]

Our cap situation:

Code: Select all

Player           10/11  11/12  12/13  13/14
Arenas,Gilbert   17.73  19.27  20.81  22.35
Hinrich,Kirk      9.00   8.00    -      - 
Wall,John         5.14   5.53   5.92   7.46
Jianlian,Yi       4.05    -      -      - 
Blatche,Andray    3.26   3.52   7.04*   - 
Thornton,Al       2.81    -      -      - 
Young,Nick        2.69    -      -      - 
McGee,JaVale      1.60   2.46   7.39*   - 
Seraphin,Kevin    1.56   1.68   1.80   2.76
Booker,Trevor     1.20   1.29   1.39   2.35
Armstrong, Hilt   0.92    -      -      - 
N'Diaye, Hamady   0.47   0.79   0.90    - 
Free Agent         -      -      -      - 
Rookie Cap Hold  -1.32    -      -      - 
TPE               6.00    -      -      - 
2011 pick (#12)    -     2.08   2.24   2.40
2012 pick (#18)    -      -     1.53   1.65
2013 pick (#22)    -      -      -     1.29

Total Salary     55.13  44.63  49.01  40.25
Salary Cap       58.04  59.78  61.57  63.42
Luxury Tax       70.81  72.93  75.12  77.37
Money Available   2.91  15.15  12.57  23.17

The asterisks next to Blatche and McGee's 2012 salary is a cap hold. Our cap will be charged the figure shown until Blatche and/or McGee are actually signed, at which point their actual salary will count. If we waive our Bird Rights, their cap hold disappears but we would no longer be able to exceed the cap to resign them.

With Arenas on the roster, we should stay under the cap, but we will not have max cap room once the rest of the roster is filled up with minimum salary vets. The only real shot at max cap space with Arenas on the roster is next summer, but we'd have to dump Hinrich by the Trade Deadline this season.

[LyricalRico]

Rico, it sounds like you're a proponent of trading Gil primarily due to "a fear of the unknown".

Am I that far off base?

Well, it's not so much fear of the unknown as much as it is feeling that the upside doesn't justify the risk. I just don't see much legitimate upside with Arenas on the team. Some may say that I'm underrating their chances, but there were times in the past few years when this team had more proven talent than it does now and it was only mediocre (40-45 wins). Why would we expect them to be as good or better with less?

IMO the absolute best case scenario with Arenas on the team is somewhere in the low 40's in wins, barely getting the 8th seed, and getting swept in the first round by Miami. First, I just don't think that scenario is likely (for the reasons mentioned above). And second, even if it happened, I don't think it does much to help the team in the long run. But the worst case scenario of Gil doing something (either by his on-court play or locker room activities) to stunt the growth of the young players could have consequences that are much further reaching IMO.

So if my choices are low probability of short term mediocrity while risking the future, or high probability of short term losing but no risk to longterm success - I'm going to choose the latter every time.

[AceDegenerate]

But the worst case scenario of Gil doing something (either by his on-court play or locker room activities) to stunt the growth of the young players could have consequences that are much further reaching IMO.

Sort of like how Gilbert stunted Andray Blatche's growth Post-Trade Deadline last season by texting him before and after every practice and game right?

It's these exact claims that I am referencing when I mentioned the unjust criticism Gilbert has been getting from Wizards fans.

[nate33]

I think another one of my concerns is with the idea of devoting so many resources to the backcourt and so few resources to the frontcourt. It feels instinctively wrong to me. I've never seen a contending team constructed with it's two best players being guards. This also relates to a point Doc often makes about guards getting too good too quickly and vaulting the team up to 45-win purgatory before there's an opportunity to draft franchise-caliber big men.

Basically, by keeping Arenas, we are committing ourselves to a frontcourt rotation of Blatche, McGee and Seraphin and hoping that one of them pans out to be a franchise big. With Arenas, there will be very little chance of ever obtaining a high enough pick to get a good big, and teams almost never trade good bigs. (If a team did trade a good big, we would need the cap space, expiring contracts and/or high picks/prospects to put together a good package. And again, it's difficult to put that package together with Arenas on the roster.)

Now, I'm not saying it's impossible to win with a seasoned Blatche and McGee. I'm just saying we are committing to that as the plan, for better or for worse.

[nate33]

But the worst case scenario of Gil doing something (either by his on-court play or locker room activities) to stunt the growth of the young players could have consequences that are much further reaching IMO.

Sort of like how Gilbert stunted Andray Blatche's growth Post-Trade Deadline last season by texting him before and after every practice and game right?

It's these exact claims that I am referencing when I mentioned the unjust criticism Gilbert has been getting from Wizards fans.

FWIW, I have no worries whatsoever about Arenas in the locker room. The worst thing I have to say about Arenas is that he's too immature to be a leader. As a teammate, he's fine. He isn't going to stunt the growth of the youngsters one bit. I'm not so sure that he'll be a great veteran mentor who will help them develop, but he won't be an impediment either.

[LyricalRico]

But the worst case scenario of Gil doing something (either by his on-court play or locker room activities) to stunt the growth of the young players could have consequences that are much further reaching IMO.

Sort of like how Gilbert stunted Andray Blatche's growth Post-Trade Deadline last season by texting him before and after every practice and game right?

It's these exact claims that I am referencing when I mentioned the unjust criticism Gilbert has been getting from Wizards fans.

The same Blatche that still had a dust-up with Saunders and should have been benched for it? Geez, it's not like the guy was Karl Malone last season. He put up some numbers but still showed his immaturity. I don't consider us to be out of the woods with Blatche just yet, despite the overrating that some have become accustomed to.

[Kanyewest]

Remember Arenas vs. the Combustible Couple

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wizard ... e-cou.html

[AceDegenerate]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ie0YSzHHmL4&feature=related[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3i-4rDADsI&feature=related[/youtube]

[JonathanJoseph]

Rico, it sounds like you're a proponent of trading Gil primarily due to "a fear of the unknown".

Am I that far off base?

Well, it's not so much fear of the unknown as much as it is feeling that the upside doesn't justify the risk. I just don't see much legitimate upside with Arenas on the team. Some may say that I'm underrating their chances, but there were times in the past few years when this team had more proven talent than it does now and it was only mediocre (40-45 wins). Why would we expect them to be as good or better with less?

IMO the absolute best case scenario with Arenas on the team is somewhere in the low 40's in wins, barely getting the 8th seed, and getting swept in the first round by Miami. First, I just don't think that scenario is likely (for the reasons mentioned above). And second, even if it happened, I don't think it does much to help the team in the long run. But the worst case scenario of Gil doing something (either by his on-court play or locker room activities) to stunt the growth of the young players could have consequences that are much further reaching IMO.

So if my choices are low probability of short term mediocrity while risking the future, or high probability of short term losing but no risk to longterm success - I'm going to choose the latter every time.

Wow, I'm a little surprised by this.

The last time (healthy) Arenas went to the playoffs was 05-06. That team was a 42 win team. And after the big 3 the rotation included Antonio Daniels, Jarvis Hayes, Michael Ruffin, Jared Jeffries and Brendan Haywood got 23 minutes/game.

I would say that not only have we made a dramatic upgrade at coach, but we easily have more talent and probably more depth than that team too. It will take some time and depend on the growth of the young guys, but it will happen. As I said, I'm still assuming 42 wins or more this season with Arenas.

[Silvie Lysandra]

I think another one of my concerns is with the idea of devoting so many resources to the backcourt and so few resources to the frontcourt. It feels instinctively wrong to me. I've never seen a contending team constructed with it's two best players being guards. This also relates to a point Doc often makes about guards getting too good too quickly and vaulting the team up to 45-win purgatory before there's an opportunity to draft franchise-caliber big men.

Good point, but

One thing to consider though - I might argue that there has not been a true franchise-caliber big drafted since 2004 (though the jury is out on a lot of guys). Even guys like Amare, Bosh, Gasol are *well* short of a prime Duncan, Shaq, KG, Dirk or even the second tier of great bigs - Webber, Ewing, Mourning, guys like that. And even a guy like Gasol was closer to a 7'0 version of Jamison before he got to LA. And personally, if Blatche maintains his performance as a starter last year, he's already on the cusp of being a franchise big. And as we all know, Chris Webber was no paragon of hustle and work ethic. If Blatche = C-Webb, then I have no problem committing to him.

The fact is, of the titles this decade that featured dominant bigs, 4 of them were won by a guy drafted in 1992, 4 won by guys drafted in 1996. The other two was won by a guy drafted in 2001, and hadn't won a GAME in the playoffs without Kobe and Phil.

With Arenas, there will be very little chance of ever obtaining a high enough pick to get a good big, and teams almost never trade good bigs.

I'd argue this was the case the moment we drafted Wall.

Wall is being considered a once in a generation PG prospect. In addition, he was a top pick in the draft. Well, let's see first, the impact elite PG prospects have on their teams as *rookies*, and second, the impact quality #1 picks have on their teams as rookies.

PGs:

2005 Hornets: +18 games from last year
2005 Jazz: +15 games from last year
2008 Bulls +8 from previous year
2009 Bucks +12 from previous years.

For goodness sake the Bobcats were +7 after they drafted Felton!

The only exceptions were Russel Westbrook (who was considered a major project at the time, and not even a pure PG), on a team that had Durant, Green, and literally nothing else, and Stephon Curry, whose team was devastated by injury like no team in recent memory. We have *far* more talent than those teams even without Arenas.

Meanwhile, let's look at #1 picks that panned out

Yao Ming + 15
LeBron James + 18 (Wade, Bosh, and Melo would be #1s in other years, so will include them just because - +17, +7, and +27 respectively)
Dwight Howard + 15
Bogut + 10
Bargnani (arguably a bust bust still +20)

Durant is an interesting case - he's minus -10, but SEA/OKC had blown it up, trading Allen and Lewis. Obviously Oden didn't play.

Rose + 8, as above.

Obviously Griffin didn't play, but Evans, as the only impact rookie from last year's class, was +8, and they had started strong, and might have better if Martin was healthy.

So based on the track record, if we are in the high lottery yet again, we either got racked by injuries, or we have much bigger problems than Arenas making us too good, because it means Wall isn't ready and/or Blatche and McGee have stagnated or regressed.

Impact rookies make immediate and significant improvements in team win totals and even if it doesn't vault them into the playoffs, it does take them well over the 30 win mark in most cases.

So basically, the scenario where dumping Arenas puts in the high lottery, assumes Wall, Blatche, McGee, Booker, Seraphin, and even Young are busts.

[nate33]

Good post, Rev. Chaos.

That's a very good point.

[JonathanJoseph]

I think another one of my concerns is with the idea of devoting so many resources to the backcourt and so few resources to the frontcourt. It feels instinctively wrong to me. I've never seen a contending team constructed with it's two best players being guards. This also relates to a point Doc often makes about guards getting too good too quickly and vaulting the team up to 45-win purgatory before there's an opportunity to draft franchise-caliber big men.

Good point, but

One thing to consider though - I might argue that there has not been a true franchise-caliber big drafted since 2004 (though the jury is out on a lot of guys). Even guys like Amare, Bosh, Gasol are *well* short of a prime Duncan, Shaq, KG, Dirk or even the second tier of great bigs - Webber, Ewing, Mourning, guys like that. And even a guy like Gasol was closer to a 7'0 version of Jamison before he got to LA. And personally, if Blatche maintains his performance as a starter last year, he's already on the cusp of being a franchise big. And as we all know, Chris Webber was no paragon of hustle and work ethic. If Blatche = C-Webb, then I have no problem committing to him.

The fact is, of the titles this decade that featured dominant bigs, 4 of them were won by a guy drafted in 1992, 4 won by guys drafted in 1996. The other two was won by a guy drafted in 2001, and hadn't won a GAME in the playoffs without Kobe and Phil.

With Arenas, there will be very little chance of ever obtaining a high enough pick to get a good big, and teams almost never trade good bigs.

I'd argue this was the case the moment we drafted Wall.

Wall is being considered a once in a generation PG prospect. In addition, he was a top pick in the draft. Well, let's see first, the impact elite PG prospects have on their teams as *rookies*, and second, the impact quality #1 picks have on their teams as rookies.

PGs:

2005 Hornets: +18 games from last year
2005 Jazz: +15 games from last year
2008 Bulls +8 from previous year
2009 Bucks +12 from previous years.

For goodness sake the Bobcats were +7 after they drafted Felton!

The only exceptions were Russel Westbrook (who was considered a major project at the time, and not even a pure PG), on a team that had Durant, Green, and literally nothing else, and Stephon Curry, whose team was devastated by injury like no team in recent memory. We have *far* more talent than those teams even without Arenas.

Meanwhile, let's look at #1 picks that panned out

Yao Ming + 15
LeBron James + 18 (Wade, Bosh, and Melo would be #1s in other years, so will include them just because - +17, +7, and +27 respectively)
Dwight Howard + 15
Bogut + 10
Bargnani (arguably a bust bust still +20)

Durant is an interesting case - he's minus -10, but SEA/OKC had blown it up, trading Allen and Lewis. Obviously Oden didn't play.

Rose + 8, as above.

Obviously Griffin didn't play, but Evans, as the only impact rookie from last year's class, was +8, and they had started strong, and might have better if Martin was healthy.

So based on the track record, if we are in the high lottery yet again, we either got racked by injuries, or we have much bigger problems than Arenas making us too good, because it means Wall isn't ready and/or Blatche and McGee have stagnated or regressed.

Impact rookies make immediate and significant improvements in team win totals and even if it doesn't vault them into the playoffs, it does take them well over the 30 win mark in most cases.

So basically, the scenario where dumping Arenas puts in the high lottery, assumes Wall, Blatche, McGee, Booker, Seraphin, and even Young are busts.

This is a fantastic post.

[DCZards]

Sort of like how Gilbert stunted Andray Blatche's growth Post-Trade Deadline last season by texting him before and after every practice and game right?

It's these exact claims that I am referencing when I mentioned the unjust criticism Gilbert has been getting from Wizards fans.

From what I can tell, Krizko, the doubt and criticism about GA and his future with the Zards are almost entirely on this board. Most of the Zards fans and season ticket holders I come in contact with are ecstatic about GA returning and playing next to Wall..