2012 NBA Draft - Part II

[DCZards]

Ok. Ok. I'm off the Barnes and Beal bandwagon and joining the MKG crowd. If MKG can develop a decent 15-20 foot jomper, with his defense, motor and ability to finish at the rim he could be an NBA all-star. But no way MKG a two-guard. In fact, he could very likely end up being more of a PF than a SF.

Hoos, I feel pretty much the same way as you do about Sullinger. He gets overlooked by people, including myself, because of his somewhat pudgy/soft physique and the fact that he basically has had a so-so season. But Sullinger is a highly-skilled player who can score both facing the basket and with his back to the basket. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Sullinger turned out to be a MUCH better NBA player than Robinson.

[nate33]

OK, I've been in the tank for Sullinger, so I can't pretend to be unbiased, but this is what I keep hearing:

If Robinson works hard, he should be able to develop a good jumper - like Sullinger has.
That three pointer pointer yesterday was nice, maybe in time he could develop range - like Sullinger has.
If he really dedicates himself to FTs, maybe he can up his FT% a hundred or so points - to where Sullinger is.
If Kansas had an ordinary PF, there's no way they'd be in the Final Four. Just like OSU and Sullinger.
In the NBA, Robinson won't see those double teams that he has in college - just like Sullinger has.
If Robinson were to go back to school, he could prove that he's not just a one-year phenomenon, that he can do it again at the highest level - like Sullinger has.
Oh, and Sullinger's a year younger....

All true, but the big difference is that Sullinger is going to have trouble guarding people. Robinson won't. Defense is half the game and Robinson is a significantly better defender. The thought of Sullinger chasing stretch 4's out to the 3 point line frightens me.

[Ruzious]

But it's the 11 rebounds that few players reach; not the 15 points. And Robinson is one helleva rebounder. 15 points a game doesn't exactly require a PF to be great. One slight advantage that Robinson has over Sullinger is that Robinson's played PF all season, while Sullinger's played center all season. I don't think Sullinger will have much trouble adjusting, because he has the skills, but Robinson doesn't have to adjust in that regard.

Robinson has 3 advantages I see:
1. He's not floor bound.
2. He doesn't have a back issue.
3. He stays at his college position.

Sullinger's advantages:
1. Productive from day 1 in college.
2. Has the edge in offensive skills.

I think both are going to be very productive in the NBA. I do worry about Sullinger's health.

[nate33]

EDIT: nate, I tend to agree with your assessment (but I wouldn't put him in Horford's class). So the question stands: would you pick a "Rich man's Booker" in the top 5?

Yes.

Trevor Booker averages 12 points and 9 boards per 36 while playing real good man D and real good team D except when dealing with a significant size disparity. A rich man's Booker would get get you 13 and 11 per 36 minutes with good D and no defensive mismatches. In time, he'll hone his jumper (as most big men with work ethic tend to do) and get his scoring average up to 15 or so. In this league, 15 and 11 with good D is a borderline all star PF.

15 & 11 is a lot more than "borderline" for a PF, even without considering the defensive side.

In the past 4 years, there have been a total of 10 seasons where a PF has averaged 15 & 11 while playing at least 50 games. Here is the list:

Blake Griffin
Kevin Love
Zach Randolph (2x)
Carlos Boozer
Pau Gasol
David Lee (2x)
Tim Duncan
Al Jefferson

It just doesn't happen very often. And there's no way Robinson will ever have the offensive game that those guys do.

One interesting point in Sullinger's favor: There are at least four analogous players to Sullinger on that list in Love, Boozer, Randolph, and Jefferson. Considering Lee is sometimes looked at as unathletic (wonder why) and a defensive liability, he's subject to some of the same criticisms Sullinger is.

And yet, the majority of players meeting this criteria more closely resemble Sullinger than anyone else in college basketball. Just sayin....

I said 15 and 11 per 36. Most bigs only play about 32-34 minutes, so he'd probably post more like 13.5 and 10 per game with good D. And as we both know, good D doesn't get valued as much as points per game. My guess is that Robinson posting 13.5 and 10 in 32 minutes a game will impact the game more positively than Sullinger posting 16 and 9 while giving up a lot at the other end with slower defense rotations.

[go'stags]

OK, I've been in the tank for Sullinger, so I can't pretend to be unbiased, but this is what I keep hearing:

If Robinson works hard, he should be able to develop a good jumper - like Sullinger has.
That three pointer pointer yesterday was nice, maybe in time he could develop range - like Sullinger has.
If he really dedicates himself to FTs, maybe he can up his FT% a hundred or so points - to where Sullinger is.
If Kansas had an ordinary PF, there's no way they'd be in the Final Four. Just like OSU and Sullinger.
In the NBA, Robinson won't see those double teams that he has in college - just like Sullinger has.
If Robinson were to go back to school, he could prove that he's not just a one-year phenomenon, that he can do it again at the highest level - like Sullinger has.
Oh, and Sullinger's a year younger....

Look, I get it - and I too have concerns about Sullinger. The two primary ones are injuries and foul trouble. But IMO, he has been much more productive in college than Robinson, especially when you consider that he's done it for two years with no help inside. Truth be told, I think that people overlook Sullinger because of his physique (and are mesmerized by Robinson for the same reason).

Robinson will be a good pro, and will definitely contribute. But if you're expecting even a Horford-sized impact, I think you'll be disappointed. And for those who don't want to "settle" with a top 3 pick and think Robinson will be a game-changer in the NBA (multiple All-Star), you may be surprised a few years down the road.

Robinson is also a tremendous athlete, something Sullinger is not. Also, as strong as Robinson is, he can get even stronger IMO.

Its easy to dismiss injury concerns when its in a single sentence, but that is a big, big concern. He is 20 with back concerns already? How is that going to get better in the NBA?

And I can almost guarantee that Robinson averages 15 PPG, and everyone knows he is a great rebounder.

[The Consiglieri]

This compacted end-of-season schedule is gonna crush us and I dont see how we dont get a top 4 pick.

Don't forget that Drummond will probably go in the top 4 as well, so we really only need a top 5 pick to get one of our guys.

Who would take Drummond among:

Charlotte

New Orleans

Toronto

New Jersey

Detroit?

It would make me feel a lot more comfortable to know one of them was a lock to take him. Doesn't seem like Detroit or New Jersey or Toronto would go that direction.

I still have Robinson for the booby prize for me, I think he has the least upside of the big four for me, but probably the second highest floor.

[nate33]

Detroit, New Orleans and New Jersey probably would. Maybe not at #2, but probably by #4 or so.

[tontoz]

This compacted end-of-season schedule is gonna crush us and I dont see how we dont get a top 4 pick.

Don't forget that Drummond will probably go in the top 4 as well, so we really only need a top 5 pick to get one of our guys.

Who would take Drummond among:

Charlotte

New Orleans

Toronto

New Jersey

Detroit?

It would make me feel a lot more comfortable to know one of them was a lock to take him. Doesn't seem like Detroit or New Jersey or Toronto would go that direction.

I still have Robinson for the booby prize for me, I think he has the least upside of the big four for me, but probably the second highest floor.

Detroit, Toronto and NJ could all use defensive bigs. Monroe, Bargs and Lopez aren't know for their defense. The Cats have BB and NOH has Okafor so i doubt they would be interested.

[Severn Hoos]

Robinson is also a tremendous athlete, something Sullinger is not. Also, as strong as Robinson is, he can get even stronger IMO.

Its easy to dismiss injury concerns when its in a single sentence, but that is a big, big concern. He is 20 with back concerns already? How is that going to get better in the NBA?

And I can almost guarantee that Robinson averages 15 PPG, and everyone knows he is a great rebounder.

Being a great athlete is far less reliable as an indicator of NBA impact than being a great basketball player. Plenty of physical specimens just don't make it in the NBA. And some of them, when they do, find themselves unable to overcome obstacles, whether it be injury or simply going up against bigger, better athletes for the first time in their lives.

I'm tempted to offer the steak dinner bet on Robinson averaging 15 PPG. I doubt he'll make it for even one year (though he certainly could if he goes to a bad team that doesn't mind him shooting a lot). I definitely can't see him averaging 15 PPG for a career.

And lastly - I don't mean to dismiss the injury concerns. That's the main reason I don't advocate picking Sullinger top 3 or even top 5. Just too much risk there, IMO. But the basketball skills would make him worthy of the selection, IMO - at least as much as some of the other names being discussed.

[tontoz]

Detroit, New Orleans and New Jersey probably would. Maybe not at #2, but probably by #4 or so.

LOL we have been channeling each other lately.

[The Consiglieri]

Ok. Ok. I'm off the Barnes and Beal bandwagon and joining the MKG crowd. If MKG can develop a decent 15-20 foot jomper, with his defense, motor and ability to finish at the rim he could be an NBA all-star. But no way MKG a two-guard. In fact, he could very likely end up being more of a PF than a SF.

Hoos, I feel pretty much the same way as you do about Sullinger. He gets overlooked by people, including myself, because of his somewhat pudgy/soft physique and the fact that he basically has had a so-so season. But Sullinger is a highly-skilled player who can score both facing the basket and with his back to the basket. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Sullinger turned out to be a MUCH better NBA player than Robinson.

We just finished rolling out the Beal train four days ago and you're already off?!?!?!

I still like Beal #3 overall ahead of Robinson, not sure where I have him with relation to MKG, go back and forth, but Beal is definitely top 3 to me, sounds like he's top 2-3 on our board at this point.

As for Sully, there are many reasons he's plunged down the boards and virtually all of them have to do with how successful he'll be at the next level and not about how successful he has been in the NCAA's. I will say that if we went 2 or 3 with our first pick, i would be ecstatic if we could trade up for Sully w/a second pick as I think he's outstanding value outside of the top 6 or 7. But I would not touch him with a top 5 pick period.

Interesting projection that would probably help a lot pre-lottery would be figuring out who the top 4 or 5 are with Charlotte, and New Orleans. If we could figure out who their top 4 or 5 are, we could really figure out our safety margin w/getting someone we want and not end up in the dreaded "With the 5th pick in the draft, The Washington Wizards select......Andre Drummond!" scenario (he does appear somewhat vaguely to be #5 on our board).

Is our big 4, their big 4's respectively? Is Drummond in there somewhere?

[Severn Hoos]

I said 15 and 11 per 36. Most bigs only play about 32-34 minutes, so he'd probably post more like 13.5 and 10 per game with good D. And as we both know, good D doesn't get valued as much as points per game. My guess is that Robinson posting 13.5 and 10 in 32 minutes a game will impact the game more positively than Sullinger posting 16 and 9 while giving up a lot at the other end with slower defense rotations.

OK, same screen, using 13.5 & 10:

Pau Gasol (2x)
Blake Griffin
Kevin Love (2x)
Zach Randolph (4x)
Carlos Boozer (2x)
Chris Bosh (2x)
Tim Duncan (3x)
David Lee (2x)
Troy Murphy (2x)
Gerald Wallace
Al Jefferson (2x)
Antawn Jamison
Shawn Marion
Lamar Odom

Doesn't change the list much except for letting in some SFs (or less than "powerful" PFs like Jamison and Odom). And while I get the per-36 point, the real issue is contribution on the court, and if he can't stay on the court long enough to get the higher per game stats, then I'd ask why not?

I was surprised that Horford didn't make the list - his rebounds are consistently in the 9s but never got above 10.

And I have to say, I don't get the whole issue that Robinson is patently better than Sullinger on defense. Ruz made the point that Robinson has an advantage because he's been playing PF in college. I've said it before, but I consider that an advantage to Sullinger. Most (OK, many) college PFs end up playing SF in the pros, so if a guy played PF his entire college career, he probably didn't match up too often against NBA-level PF talent. OTOH, guys like Love, Boozer, and yes - Sullinger -spent their careers battling against bigger guys as their team's de facto C - the kind of guys they will see night in and night out in the NBA.

OSU has the 3rd ranked defense in terms of Points per Possession (Kansas is 9th, so they're very comparable), and Sullinger has 5.0 Defensive Wins shares (more than TRob). His defensive rating is almost identical to Robinson's, and again - most of the time, he's the only true big on the floor. Sure, he may struggle against a stretch 4 who wants to hang out at the 3-point line. But then he might take that Ryan Anderson or Antawn Jamison to the post on the other end end and punish him until he sits due to foul trouble or by coach's decision.

I still think it has more to do with how a player looks than how he plays. I know it sounds like I'm drinking the Moneyball Kool-aid, but I think Sullinger is being vastly underrated.

[Ruzious]

Sev, I have to give props to you and Nate on this debate. You have never waivered on Sullinger, while Nate has never waivered on Robinson - both of you from at least the start of the season. I've flip-flopped depending on the weather. I like em both, but the back concern with Sullinger breaks the virtual tie with me.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I gotta admit MKG is growing on me too. He definitely has the benefit of playing with alot of other talent like Davis and Jones. And his shooting is certainly a concern for me... a forward collection of MKG, Booker, Singleton and Vesely next season would again leave us with terrible shooting, and again put the scoring focus into the hands of Jordan Crawford, which would be disasterous IMO. Athough it could be VERY good defensively.

It would be cool and alittle funny to me if Washington's big draft picks this spring are RG3 and MKG. But if MKG is the Wizard's pick... seems to me we may need to renew our hope in Blatche, as he's really the only offensively skilled option to pair with MKG in the frontcourt. And we all know how that has worked for us.

I do still like Beal alot. I would be happy with either. I think Beal fits more of a need, and I would love to see a Wall-Beal backcourt. I just think their skills mesh perfectly and that pair would be something to build on, like the Arenas-Hughes backcourt could of been.

If MKG is the pick, I think we could sign someone like UFA SG Belinelli to even out the lineup possibly.

We just really have a mess of a roster when you look at it. The pick of Vesely was just really terrible last year. And then following that pick with Singleton really seems to have put us in a hole. I like MKG, and Robinson both ALOT, but see Beal as the best pick for us. But any way to break it down, we have major holes at SG, SF, and PF and just need to take the BPA. We'll see where our pick ends up... if we end up at 5 or 6 our pick will basically be made for us anyway once again choosing whoever is left.

[Severn Hoos]

Sev, I have to give props to you and Nate on this debate. You have never waivered on Sullinger, while Nate has never waivered on Robinson - both of you from at least the start of the season. I've flip-flopped depending on the weather. I like em both, but the back concern with Sullinger breaks the virtual tie with me.

Thanks, Ruz - and I'm totally fine with that. As I said, I probably wouldn't draft him top 5 (ok, maybe at #5) either, only because of the injury risk. But I think he has all the tools needed to be a very effective pro. And at the top of that list is BBIQ and the desire to always get better.

My only issue is I am afraid of transferring that concern into inflating Robinson's stock. I'd rather have MKG or Beal than Robinson. I just can't decide what I'd do in this scenario:

Wiz are picking 4th with Davis, MKG, and Beal off the board. Take Robinson? Take Drummond? take Sullinger? Trade down?

No way I would take Drummond, so that's one down. I just have a gut feeling (pardon the pun) that Sullinger will be a better pro than Robinson. So I probably try to trade down. (To answer nate's question: Yes, absolutely on the question of 9 & 11 for #5.) But if I absolutely had to take one guy, I probably still take Sullinger.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Just looked Draftexpress mock has Wizards taking MKG and then Doron Lamb in 2nd round. Gotta say, I would not be mad... that would be a pretty good draft IMO.

[FAH1223]

Robinson is also a tremendous athlete, something Sullinger is not. Also, as strong as Robinson is, he can get even stronger IMO.

Its easy to dismiss injury concerns when its in a single sentence, but that is a big, big concern. He is 20 with back concerns already? How is that going to get better in the NBA?

And I can almost guarantee that Robinson averages 15 PPG, and everyone knows he is a great rebounder.

Being a great athlete is far less reliable as an indicator of NBA impact than being a great basketball player. Plenty of physical specimens just don't make it in the NBA. And some of them, when they do, find themselves unable to overcome obstacles, whether it be injury or simply going up against bigger, better athletes for the first time in their lives.

I'm tempted to offer the steak dinner bet on Robinson averaging 15 PPG. I doubt he'll make it for even one year (though he certainly could if he goes to a bad team that doesn't mind him shooting a lot). I definitely can't see him averaging 15 PPG for a career.

And lastly - I don't mean to dismiss the injury concerns. That's the main reason I don't advocate picking Sullinger top 3 or even top 5. Just too much risk there, IMO. But the basketball skills would make him worthy of the selection, IMO - at least as much as some of the other names being discussed.

Sully can't even jump dude... and he has had weight issues. He will be a Big Baby Davis clone.

[closg00]

I think Sullinger is going to be fine in the pros because he will not be the focus of opponent defenses like he is now, he will be able hit mid-range shots and mix-up if he has to. I do worry a bit about his body fat though and quickness on defense.

[Rafael122]

Just looked Draftexpress mock has Wizards taking MKG and then Doron Lamb in 2nd round. Gotta say, I would not be mad... that would be a pretty good draft IMO.

At this point we should try and get another draft pick or two so we can get a chance at drafting 3/5 of Kentucky's starting 5.

[gesa2]

Just looked Draftexpress mock has Wizards taking MKG and then Doron Lamb in 2nd round. Gotta say, I would not be mad... that would be a pretty good draft IMO.

At this point we should try and get another draft pick or two so we can get a chance at drafting 3/5 of Kentucky's starting 5.

Hey we have a coaching vacancy too!