2020 Draft

[Ruzious]

I'll take a pure shot and a great defensive play over a fancy pass. I'm starting to think - I want both Beys from this draft. BeyBey.

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Actually, what this tells me is that "it's probably not a very good... crop" of guys doing the projecting!

[payitforward]

...I'm starting to think - I want both Beys from this draft....

Both good players, for sure. But Tyler Bey in R2 would be a huge bargain. If he's there when we use the Bulls' R2 pick, take him. Hard to see who could still be there & be a better pick.

[pcbothwel]

Im officially on the Vassell or Maxey bandwagon, especially Maxey.
The comps to Donovan Mitchell have been made, but I think Maxey is not the powerful athlete and a better defender compared to Mitchell.
So Im refining my comp to Jrue Holiday. Combo guard with great defensive projection due to motor, instincts, and hips. I love his change of pace and ability to draw fouls.
I think he flourishes as a pro as a scorer/playmaker with a more open court. Kentucky has no shooters outside of Quickley and Maxey has no space to be creative. He needs to make small adjustments to his form, but he's a 83% FT shooter on high volume.

i think a Jrue archetype is great value at 9 and a PERFECT player to be a third guard with Wall and Beal.

[Dat2U]

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Actually, what this tells me is that "it's probably not a very good... crop" of guys doing the projecting!

I would agree with the tweet in that there aren't any elite prospects in this draft. I think LaMelo has the best talent/skill/production combo but he has own flaws. I don't see one guy I absolutely love. I assume Haliburton will be good but top 3 pick good? The draft may look decent depth wise but the top of it a complete mess.

[Dat2U]

Im officially on the Vassell or Maxey bandwagon, especially Maxey.
The comps to Donovan Mitchell have been made, but I think Maxey is not the powerful athlete and a better defender compared to Mitchell.
So Im refining my comp to Jrue Holiday. Combo guard with great defensive projection due to motor, instincts, and hips. I love his change of pace and ability to draw fouls.
I think he flourishes as a pro as a scorer/playmaker with a more open court. Kentucky has no shooters outside of Quickley and Maxey has no space to be creative. He needs to make small adjustments to his form, but he's a 83% FT shooter on high volume.

i think a Jrue archetype is great value at 9 and a PERFECT player to be a third guard with Wall and Beal.

Why do I get the Jodie Meeks vibe from Maxey? I like everything about Vassell except the ballhandling but that's a very bad weakness for a guard to have.

[pcbothwel]

Im officially on the Vassell or Maxey bandwagon, especially Maxey.
The comps to Donovan Mitchell have been made, but I think Maxey is not the powerful athlete and a better defender compared to Mitchell.
So Im refining my comp to Jrue Holiday. Combo guard with great defensive projection due to motor, instincts, and hips. I love his change of pace and ability to draw fouls.
I think he flourishes as a pro as a scorer/playmaker with a more open court. Kentucky has no shooters outside of Quickley and Maxey has no space to be creative. He needs to make small adjustments to his form, but he's a 83% FT shooter on high volume.

i think a Jrue archetype is great value at 9 and a PERFECT player to be a third guard with Wall and Beal.

Why do I get the Jodie Meeks vibe from Maxey? I like everything about Vassell except the ballhandling but that's a very bad weakness for a guard to have.

Oh god no. You really need to watch Maxey. Im a big fan of players that get dinged for being "Not Great Athletes" because they arent vertically explosive, because they get undervalued. His quickness, body control, and spacial awareness are really something.
Wall, Beal, and Maxey can all play off the ball, create, and draw fouls.
I love the fit.
I cant stress this enough. We need a culture build on grind and defense.

Here is a great breakdown and was on the Draft Board:

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[payitforward]

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Actually, what this tells me is that "it's probably not a very good... crop" of guys doing the projecting!

I would agree with the tweet in that there aren't any elite prospects in this draft. I think LaMelo has the best talent/skill/production combo but he has own flaws. I don't see one guy I absolutely love. I assume Haliburton will be good but top 3 pick good? The draft may look decent depth wise but the top of it a complete mess.

Thing is, Dat, it is so very hard to know who's going to turn out to be "elite." & quite often it's not the guys who were projected to be elite.

Plus, though of course it's great to draft a star, it's very rare -- after all, how many are there in the league overall?

Plus, if I look at the dozen drafts from 2008-19, I'd say Haliburton has a good shot to be better than 20 of the 36 top 3 picks (which doesn't mean he will be: but there are some pretty low hurdles on that track!).

[payitforward]

...You really need to watch Maxey. Im a big fan of players that get dinged for being "Not Great Athletes" because they arent vertically explosive, because they get undervalued. His quickness, body control, and spacial awareness are really something....

In fairness, it is extremely difficult to judge a Freshman off his numbers, so I would never want to make a negative prediction on a kid like Maxey. Along those lines, one could look at the difference between Haliburton's numbers as a Freshman & as a Sophomore. He was about 50% more productive his 2d year.

Thing is... Haliburton was quite good as a Freshman. Then he blew up this year.

Maxey's Freshman numbers, OTOH, are just awful. He's an excellent FT shooter, & he's a reasonably good defensive rebounder for a guard. Every other performance measure is either meh or bad. Now... I take it on trust that he's a very good defensive player, & of course that would make a difference.

All the same, I've never seen a guard with numbers like Maxey's succeed in the league. Period. Doesn't mean he won't be the first, of course. But, that's what he'd have to be.

Unless you have a college comp that I've missed -- you very well might, & if so I''d love to know about it.

[Dat2U]

Im officially on the Vassell or Maxey bandwagon, especially Maxey.
The comps to Donovan Mitchell have been made, but I think Maxey is not the powerful athlete and a better defender compared to Mitchell.
So Im refining my comp to Jrue Holiday. Combo guard with great defensive projection due to motor, instincts, and hips. I love his change of pace and ability to draw fouls.
I think he flourishes as a pro as a scorer/playmaker with a more open court. Kentucky has no shooters outside of Quickley and Maxey has no space to be creative. He needs to make small adjustments to his form, but he's a 83% FT shooter on high volume.

i think a Jrue archetype is great value at 9 and a PERFECT player to be a third guard with Wall and Beal.

Why do I get the Jodie Meeks vibe from Maxey? I like everything about Vassell except the ballhandling but that's a very bad weakness for a guard to have.

Oh god no. You really need to watch Maxey. Im a big fan of players that get dinged for being "Not Great Athletes" because they arent vertically explosive, because they get undervalued. His quickness, body control, and spacial awareness are really something.
Wall, Beal, and Maxey can all play off the ball, create, and draw fouls.
I love the fit.
I cant stress this enough. We need a culture build on grind and defense.

Here is a great breakdown and was on the Draft Board:

Watch on YouTube

Meeks coming out was much better scorer/shooter in college. Averaged 25 ppg. Not talking about the washed version who was nothing more than a spot up shooter at the end of his career.

I see alot Jodie Meeks & Coby White in his game. I liked White's body of work in college more than I do Maxey. I had White as late lottery last year.

I found myself laughing about 7-8 mins into the scouting report. I mean it's well produced but also an overwhelmingly glowing report which doesnt quite fit considering the overall inefficiency and moderate production. The vision is questionable. The handle is solid but not necessarily advanced for a guard. The decision making/shot selection is spotty. Best asset seems to be his finishing ability but can he get all the way to the rim against longer defenders at 6-3 or will he be forced to rely heavily on low % floaters?

[Ruzious]

Watching Meeks at KY, I thought it was obvious he was going to a 3 point shooting role player in the NBA. He was a well-built guard who was lacking in quickness and had range out to at least 25 feet. Meeks and Maxey... I don't see similarities tbh.

[pcbothwel]

...You really need to watch Maxey. Im a big fan of players that get dinged for being "Not Great Athletes" because they arent vertically explosive, because they get undervalued. His quickness, body control, and spacial awareness are really something....

In fairness, it is extremely difficult to judge a Freshman off his numbers, so I would never want to make a negative prediction on a kid like Maxey. Along those lines, one could look at the difference between Haliburton's numbers as a Freshman & as a Sophomore. He was about 50% more productive his 2d year.

Thing is... Haliburton was quite good as a Freshman. Then he blew up this year.

Maxey's Freshman numbers, OTOH, are just awful. He's an excellent FT shooter, & he's a reasonably good defensive rebounder for a guard. Every other performance measure is either meh or bad. Now... I take it on trust that he's a very good defensive player, & of course that would make a difference.

All the same, I've never seen a guard with numbers like Maxey's succeed in the league. Period. Doesn't mean he won't be the first, of course. But, that's what he'd have to be.

Unless you have a college comp that I've missed -- you very well might, & if so I''d love to know about it.

i think Donovan Mitchell (Freshman year) and Jrue are quite comparable.

[payitforward]

I see next to no similarity between Maxey & Holiday. Yes, they happened to post the identical TS%, but they did it in completely different ways. Holiday had a significantly higher 2pt % (.528 > .492) & a slightly higher 3 pt. %, but Maxey got to the line almost twice as often & shot a much higher FT%.

For the rest, they were very different overall with Holiday's per 40 minute numbers being a lot better than Maxey's. He had more rebounds, 46% more assists, 2.3 times as many steals, & twice as many blocked shots. OTOH, he turned the ball over somewhat more than Maxey & fouled a little more as well. Overall, his productivity was significantly higher than Maxey's.

Mitchell's numbers, again, were significantly different in character than Maxey's, & overall he was the more productive player. When a guy gets 40% more rebounds than another guy, plus 70% more steals, & he shoots the 2 at .559 instead of the other guys' .492, but on the other hand commits almost twice as many fouls as the other guy... -- it's a little hard to credit the claim that these are two similar players.

Not to mention that Jrue went #17 & Mitchell #13 in the draft. Nor would it make sense to argue that their success makes it more likely Maxey will be a success -- the exception proves the rule, it doesn't create a new one! I could give you a long list of guards with numbers like Maxey's who did not make it in the league!

I'm not trying to be especially negative on Tyrese Maxey, who may turn out to be an outstanding NBA player. But, he's a longer shot than a whole lot of other prospects. NBAdraftroom has him at #24 in their R1 mock. I don't see why to put him any higher than that.

[wall_glizzy]

Potentially bad news for the Haliburton crew: today's updated Athletic mock has the Zards taking Killian Hayes at #9 with Haliburton still on the board. It's ostensibly source-based, so there could be some info out there that we're not too hot on Haliburton. Could be totally speculative, too, although the write-up on Haliburton should (imo) point straight to us.

Haliburton’s production exceeds the scouting-based eval a bit. The Iowa State guard was a statistical monster this past year, averaging 15.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists while also snatching away 2.5 steals per game and posting well over a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Oh, and he shot over 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from 3, and 82 percent from the line. The tape doesn’t tell a “different” story, necessarily, because his feel for the game is insane and will lead to production at any level.

...In my opinion, his best role is likely going to be more of a second-side playmaker next to a high-level offensive wing or lead guard who can get shots late in the clock, and can use Haliburton to get defenses into rotation on drives attacking closeouts or on kickouts or ball reversals. Then, he can play some backup point guard when that guy is off the court. That may sound like more of a secondary piece, but it’s actually quite valuable as long as his defensive ability translates.

Sounds like an awesome third guard to stagger in with Wall and Beal, and one whose rough edges would probably benefit a ton from the defensive attention those guys would draw.

Here's the whole article, for those subscribed or on a trial: https://theathletic.com/1774481/2020/04/29/vecenie-2020-nba-mock-draft-version-5-0-post-early-entry-deadline-edition/

[Ruzious]

Potentially bad news for the Haliburton crew: today's updated Athletic mock has the Zards taking Killian Hayes at #9 with Haliburton still on the board. It's ostensibly source-based, so there could be some info out there that we're not too hot on Haliburton. Could be totally speculative, too, although the write-up on Haliburton should (imo) point straight to us.

Haliburton’s production exceeds the scouting-based eval a bit. The Iowa State guard was a statistical monster this past year, averaging 15.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists while also snatching away 2.5 steals per game and posting well over a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Oh, and he shot over 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from 3, and 82 percent from the line. The tape doesn’t tell a “different” story, necessarily, because his feel for the game is insane and will lead to production at any level.

...In my opinion, his best role is likely going to be more of a second-side playmaker next to a high-level offensive wing or lead guard who can get shots late in the clock, and can use Haliburton to get defenses into rotation on drives attacking closeouts or on kickouts or ball reversals. Then, he can play some backup point guard when that guy is off the court. That may sound like more of a secondary piece, but it’s actually quite valuable as long as his defensive ability translates.

Sounds like an awesome third guard to stagger in with Wall and Beal, and one whose rough edges would probably benefit a ton from the defensive attention those guys would draw.

Here's the whole article, for those subscribed or on a trial: https://theathletic.com/1774481/2020/04/29/vecenie-2020-nba-mock-draft-version-5-0-post-early-entry-deadline-edition/

I don't think either will be there, but as much as I like Hali, I'd still take Hayes. He's got a much stronger build at 18 than Hali does at 20, and there's the chance that he hasn't finished growing. Hayes still needs some work on his 3, but he showed enough improvement there that I expect he'll get there - and he has a great looking step-back shot. He's not the decision-maker that Hali is, but that can also come around.

[I_Like_Dirt]

I would agree with the tweet in that there aren't any elite prospects in this draft. I think LaMelo has the best talent/skill/production combo but he has own flaws. I don't see one guy I absolutely love. I assume Haliburton will be good but top 3 pick good? The draft may look decent depth wise but the top of it a complete mess.

Nah, there are good players there but the online mob-mentality doesn't seem to want to actually discuss such players as though they might legitimately be good top 3 picks. Just because those players aren't immediately obvious doesn't mean they aren't there. I fully expect we're going to see a Kawhi or a Giannis out of this draft when all the poor scouting teams have taken their whiffs and someone either lucks into a player or a good scouting team swoops in and snaps up a gem. I have a very hard time imagining a team regretting taking Onyeka Okongwu as a top 3 pick, for example. He's not Giannis, Kawhi good, but he's still going to be damn good and projecting who that player is going to be that way exceeds all expectations isn't exactly easy.

[payitforward]

Happy to have either of them, though even better would be to trade down.

[jivelikenice]

I really just haven't seen it w/Maxey and have been confused why he's been considered a top 10 prospect all season long. At least what I see - an undersized two guard who shot poorly and has mechanics like Coby White (i think Dat mentioned that) which makes me think he's going to be streaky. Sam V. with the Athletic said in High school he shot 33% iirc. I asked him if that was typical for top recruits and the answer wasn't clear but that means his shooting this season might be more indicative of what he is, vs ppl projecting based on his FT%.

He's fast with the ball which works against college kids but doesn't really have lead guard handle and isn't going to break down defenders in the half court. I see no pg skills when I watch him play.

His defense is good and he seems to offer some of those intangibles, but where can you consistently play him?

He'd be fine as a mid to late 1st rd pick as a role player imo....but maybe I'm just missing something.

[Jamaaliver]

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[Dat2U]

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Not a fan of his at all. Isaiah Rider'ish. More explosive Dion Waiters maybe? Obviously very talented but hate his decision making and motor.