Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX

[wall_glizzy]

Now, Jackson is almost 2 years younger than Rui (20 months), but he's played over 3000 NBA minutes, & he wasn't really a better player his 2d year than he was as a rookie.* I'd be happier about trading for him if he'd shown more movement in the direction of that upside everyone is so sure he has.

* Better 3 pt. %, worse 2pt. %, lower FT% & got to the line less, TS% 59.3 vs 59.2. Fewer rebounds. All else about the same overall.

You don't think that increasing his 3P% from 35.9 to 39.4 while more than doubling his 3PA rate (from 4.7 to 10.6 per 100 possessions) is improvement? ...

Of course it is. In fact, his TS% went up from 59.1% to 59.3%. That's an improvement -- by definition. It's just not a big one.

OTOH, his offensive rebounds went down. & that's a deterioration, the opposite of an improvement, also by definition. Ditto his defensive boards (slightly). Other things went up (slightly). Or down. Overall, there was no improvement from year 1 to year 2. If anything (but I wouldn't harp on it) a slight deterioration.

JJJ will be better as soon as he's actually better. Not until then.

Taking 3PAs from 4.7 to 10.6 per 100 while increasing 3P% from ~36 to nearly 40 is an order of magnitude greater (positive) change than ORB dropping 0.8 per 100 and DRB dropping 0.5 per 100 (especially considering the effect a floor-spacing role will have on the former). There's no question that Jackson's rebounding is severely lacking, but come on.

[payitforward]

You don't think that increasing his 3P% from 35.9 to 39.4 while more than doubling his 3PA rate (from 4.7 to 10.6 per 100 possessions) is improvement? ...

Of course it is. In fact, his TS% went up from 59.1% to 59.3%. That's an improvement -- by definition. It's just not a big one.

OTOH, his offensive rebounds went down. & that's a deterioration, the opposite of an improvement, also by definition. Ditto his defensive boards (slightly). Other things went up (slightly). Or down. Overall, there was no improvement from year 1 to year 2. If anything (but I wouldn't harp on it) a slight deterioration.

JJJ will be better as soon as he's actually better. Not until then.

Taking 3PAs from 4.7 to 10.6 per 100 while increasing 3P% from ~36 to nearly 40 is an order of magnitude greater (positive) change than ORB dropping 0.8 per 100 and DRB dropping 0.5 per 100 (especially considering the effect a floor-spacing role will have on the former). There's no question that Jackson's rebounding is severely lacking, but come on.

1. Per 36 minutes, JJJ scored 3 more points this last season than he did as a rookie. That's a fact, right?

2. This last year, JJJ's TS% (an exact measure of the efficiency with which he scored points) went up from 59.1% to 59.3%. That's a fact, right?

3. The combination of those 2 facts is a slight overall improvement of efficiency on slightly increased usage (2.4 more possessions per 36 minutes). Still working with facts, right?

That's the entire set of facts about JJJ's scoring. Nothing has been left out, & there is nothing else to add.

If we look at the rest of his numbers, leaving out rebounding, they show no change overall. He's not a machine, of course, so each of assists, blocks, steals, turnovers & fouls changed slightly -- a slight bit better or a slight bit worse. But, overall, no difference. That too is a fact, correct?

That leaves his rebounding. Per 36 minutes, JJJ got .15 fewer defensive boards & .45 fewer offensive boards than he did his rookie year.

Every player in the NBA scores more points if he takes more shots, right? There are no exceptions on the entire list of NBA players, because no one shoots 0%. Right?

So what we are looking at here is 3 more points, 2.4 more possessions used, & .6 fewer possessions gained.

That's all there is w_g, there ain't no more. The result is a set of numbers that, overall, is slightly worse than his rookie year.

[Dat2U]

I think if Westbrook has a good Westbrook type year, there will be teams interested in him - maybe not wisely but still interested - such as the Knicks. But if he's successful here in Washington and does well in the playoffs, he's probably not going to get traded - regardless of whether it would be smart to trade him. But as we've seen, anything's possible.

Gotta agree with the comments about Marcus Morris' contract - I don't see Boston wanting to take that on - though he did do well when playing for the Celtics - particularly in the 18-19 playoffs.

If Westbrook has a bounce back Westbrook type year, hes not getting dealt. Shepp would be loathe to trade the best player the Wizards have had since Gil's brief peak.

If Westbrook decline continues, he's not getting dealt, because he'll be too costly too move.

So I assume he's probably here for at least the next two years minimum.

[Dat2U]

Memphis isn't trading JJJ. After Ja, he's their second foundational piece. I loved him during the draft process but that door has closed for now.

[nuposse04]

Of course it is. In fact, his TS% went up from 59.1% to 59.3%. That's an improvement -- by definition. It's just not a big one.

OTOH, his offensive rebounds went down. & that's a deterioration, the opposite of an improvement, also by definition. Ditto his defensive boards (slightly). Other things went up (slightly). Or down. Overall, there was no improvement from year 1 to year 2. If anything (but I wouldn't harp on it) a slight deterioration.

JJJ will be better as soon as he's actually better. Not until then.

Taking 3PAs from 4.7 to 10.6 per 100 while increasing 3P% from ~36 to nearly 40 is an order of magnitude greater (positive) change than ORB dropping 0.8 per 100 and DRB dropping 0.5 per 100 (especially considering the effect a floor-spacing role will have on the former). There's no question that Jackson's rebounding is severely lacking, but come on.

1. Per 36 minutes, JJJ scored 3 more points this last season than he did as a rookie. That's a fact, right?

2. This last year, JJJ's TS% (an exact measure of the efficiency with which he scored points) went up from 59.1% to 59.3%. That's a fact, right?

3. The combination of those 2 facts is a slight overall improvement of efficiency on slightly increased usage (2.4 more possessions per 36 minutes). Still working with facts, right?

That's the entire set of facts about JJJ's scoring. Nothing has been left out, & there is nothing else to add.

If we look at the rest of his numbers, leaving out rebounding, they show no change overall. He's not a machine, of course, so each of assists, blocks, steals, turnovers & fouls changed slightly -- a slight bit better or a slight bit worse. But, overall, no difference. That too is a fact, correct?

That leaves his rebounding. Per 36 minutes, JJJ got .15 fewer defensive boards & .45 fewer offensive boards than he did his rookie year.

Every player in the NBA scores more points if he takes more shots, right? There are no exceptions on the entire list of NBA players, because no one shoots 0%. Right?

So what we are looking at here is 3 more points, 2.4 more possessions used, & .6 fewer possessions gained.

That's all there is w_g, there ain't no more. The result is a set of numbers that, overall, is slightly worse than his rookie year.

He's out on the perimeter more and providing spacing for his team. You will probably have fewer offensive rebounding opportunities cause of that alone. I still find offensive rebounding to be a rather ho-hum gauge in modern nba basketball (Yes I know you probably still go bonkers over them cause of wins produced), I'd rather have consistent spacing. That actually matters in NBA playoff basketball, not like... Tristian Thompson like players. I would like to see him pick up defensive rebounding(I don't know how much they have switching out on perimeter players and detracting his ability to stay in the paint). JJJ is also a wayyyy better help defender then rui, can actually contest shots. He has flaws, most young players do, and it will be for sure harder to work on them after his injury.

[gambitx777]

Until simmons can start shooting and hitting at least 30% from 3 you ain't ever gonna convince me he's worth reading anything of value for .

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[Ruzious]

Memphis isn't trading JJJ. After Ja, he's their second foundational piece. I loved him during the draft process but that door has closed for now.

Ok, I'll stop dreaming. Is JJJ ultimately a center or a PF?

[pcbothwel]

Memphis isn't trading JJJ. After Ja, he's their second foundational piece. I loved him during the draft process but that door has closed for now.

Ok, I'll stop dreaming. Is JJJ ultimately a center or a PF?

Center. Offensive skill and rebounding don't determine your position... Defense does.
JJJ CAN defend some 4's, but I wouldn't rely on it day in/day out.

[nuposse04]

Memphis isn't trading JJJ. After Ja, he's their second foundational piece. I loved him during the draft process but that door has closed for now.

Ok, I'll stop dreaming. Is JJJ ultimately a center or a PF?

He doesn't get enough defensive rebounds to be a 5 I think, unless you can stick a 4 next to him that can help in that facet. He's a good rim protector and help defender for such a young age though.

[payitforward]

1. Per 36 minutes, JJJ scored 3 more points this last season than he did as a rookie. That's a fact, right?

2. This last year, JJJ's TS% (an exact measure of the efficiency with which he scored points) went up from 59.1% to 59.3%. That's a fact, right?

3. The combination of those 2 facts is a slight overall improvement of efficiency on slightly increased usage (2.4 more possessions per 36 minutes). Still working with facts, right?

That's the entire set of facts about JJJ's scoring. Nothing has been left out, & there is nothing else to add.

If we look at the rest of his numbers, leaving out rebounding, they show no change overall. He's not a machine, of course, so each of assists, blocks, steals, turnovers & fouls changed slightly -- a slight bit better or a slight bit worse. But, overall, no difference. That too is a fact, correct?

That leaves his rebounding. Per 36 minutes, JJJ got .15 fewer defensive boards & .45 fewer offensive boards than he did his rookie year.

Every player in the NBA scores more points if he takes more shots, right? There are no exceptions on the entire list of NBA players, because no one shoots 0%. Right?

So what we are looking at here is 3 more points, 2.4 more possessions used, & .6 fewer possessions gained.

That's all there is w_g, there ain't no more. The result is a set of numbers that, overall, is slightly worse than his rookie year.

He's out on the perimeter more and providing spacing for his team. You will probably have fewer offensive rebounding opportunities cause of that alone. I still find offensive rebounding to be a rather ho-hum gauge in modern nba basketball (Yes I know you probably still go bonkers over them cause of wins produced), I'd rather have consistent spacing....

1. Absolutely: his spacing provides benefits; so do the direct results of his own improved 3-point shooting.
2. But, every benefit comes at a cost -- in basketball & every other human activity. One cost of the improvement I just mentioned is a dip in offensive boards.
3. That's real, but that's all there is to the matter. I don't "go bonkers" over any one thing.
4. You also don't mention that his 2 pt. % went down slightly. & so did his FT% (on fewer attempts as well). This also dilutes (a bit) the positive benefit of his improvement on 3's.
5. That's why the overall improvement in his scoring is pretty small: 3.3 points/40 minutes.
6. The cost of that benefit is 3.3 extra team possessions: 2.75 more used by JJJ & .55 foregone (because of the "fewer offensive rebounding opportunities" you mention).

Unfortunately, a 3.3 point benefit at the cost of 3.3 more possessions is not actually an overall benefit; instead it's a slight dip.

But, as you say, the way it's achieved does help increase spacing, no doubt about it. Being...

out on the perimeter ...providing spacing for his team... actually matters....

Of course it does. In fact, everything a player does on the court matters.

NBA games are won/lost by small margins. Which means that each and every made/missed shot or FTA, every defensive/offensive rebound, every steal/turnover, every foul, every blocked shot... absolutely everything has an impact on the game.

& that's why we look at everything. Not just what we like. Everything.

[Ruzious]

Wondering if there's a tiny chance the Wiz could trade for Giannis - keeping in mind that because the Bucks have traded or swapped away all their future 1sts, they really can't rebuild in the sense of a traditional tank. They pretty much have to continue to try to make the playoffs even if they trade Giannis. So, it kinda makes sense to include Westbrook and Bertans in an offer. And the Wiz can't give up much in draft picks because of the Houston trade. We do have a handful of young players. It would have to be midseason and the young players and Westbrook looking good - something to monitor - though it's obviously a huge longshot.

[nate33]

Wondering if there's a tiny chance the Wiz could trade for Giannis - keeping in mind that because the Bucks have traded or swapped away all their future 1sts, they really can't rebuild in the sense of a traditional tank. They pretty much have to continue to try to make the playoffs even if they trade Giannis. So, it kinda makes sense to include Westbrook and Bertans in an offer. And the Wiz can't give up much in draft picks because of the Houston trade. We do have a handful of young players. It would have to be midseason and the young players and Westbrook looking good - something to monitor - though it's obviously a huge longshot.

I can't imagine we will beat offers from other teams with better assets.

I actually think Atlanta might be an interesting suitor. Atlanta should be a top tier basketball town given their large, affluent African American community. They just need a catalyst to start something special. A core of Trae and Giannis would be an ideal pairing.

They have a ton of assets to put together a deal. They could package Collins, Hunter, Okongwu, Huerter and picks and be left with a good team. They'd still have Young, Boganovic, Reddish, Giannis and Capella, with Dunn and Gallinari off the bench.

[Rafael122]

Wondering if there's a tiny chance the Wiz could trade for Giannis - keeping in mind that because the Bucks have traded or swapped away all their future 1sts, they really can't rebuild in the sense of a traditional tank. They pretty much have to continue to try to make the playoffs even if they trade Giannis. So, it kinda makes sense to include Westbrook and Bertans in an offer. And the Wiz can't give up much in draft picks because of the Houston trade. We do have a handful of young players. It would have to be midseason and the young players and Westbrook looking good - something to monitor - though it's obviously a huge longshot.

Bro, I was just about to post this in the potential free agent signings thread but I realized the Wiz cannot sign him outright in free agency unless they move major money.

Giannis' 1st year salary would be $33.5 million. The projected cap for next year is $115 million. Wiz have $128 million in salaries assuming all team options are picked up. Team is still well below the luxury tax.

To get the cap room, the first option would be to decline Jerome Robinson's 4th year option. $5.3 million is pretty expensive for a bench player. Then package Wagner with Russ.

If you want to keep Robinson, then you package him, Wagner, and Russ to the Knicks and get someone like Omari Spellman in return. You want to take back a cheap guy in return.

That opens up a max slot of $38 million.

Sign Giannis to the max outright.

PG - ?
SG - Beal
SF - Bertans/TBJ/Avdija
PF - Giannis/Hachimura/Spellman
C - Bryant

You still have $3 million in cap room, the $5 million room exception (because we're under the cap), and the 2021 1st round pick (I don't see a scenario where the Wizards would have to include a pick in a Russ trade). You could probably bring back someone like Ish Smith with the room exception and probably fill out the roster with vet minimum guys who would want to come and play here. I don't know how feasible this is, my goal is to keep the majority of the young guys on the roster.

The other option would be a sign and trade. Milwaukee won't take back Russ if they have Holiday on the roster, and I don't think they'd take back Russ anyway so I would imagine its Bertans plus 2 of Bryant/Hachimura/Brown.

[pcbothwel]

If he doesnt stay with the Bucks, he's going to Toronto. Powell will opt out and they'll waive everyone else to get to 37M in capspace
FVV
OG
Siakim
Giannis
FA Center

They win the East and probably a chip or two with that squad, Masai, and Nurse. That team is better than the Kawhi team with how much better the other 3 guys are/will be than they were 1.5 years ago.

[prime1time]

If he doesnt stay with the Bucks, he's going to Toronto. Powell will opt out and they'll waive everyone else to get to 37M in capspace
FVV
OG
Siakim
Giannis
FA Center

They win the East and probably a chip or two with that squad, Masai, and Nurse. That team is better than the Kawhi team with how much better the other 3 guys are/will be than they were 1.5 years ago.

I'm taking the Nets, Clippers, Warriors (healthy) and Lakers and it's not close.

[payitforward]

Warriors?

[nate33]

Warriors?

Yeah, I think the Warriors' window is over. Even before the Klay injury, I felt that this season was a long shot. Draymond just isn't the same player he was, they have no replacement for Iggy, and Curry is likely to miss a lot of games in this condensed season.

They should probably think about rebuilding, though I realize it's just not feasible to trade away Curry when he means so much to the franchise.

[nate33]

If he doesnt stay with the Bucks, he's going to Toronto. Powell will opt out and they'll waive everyone else to get to 37M in capspace
FVV
OG
Siakim
Giannis
FA Center

They win the East and probably a chip or two with that squad, Masai, and Nurse. That team is better than the Kawhi team with how much better the other 3 guys are/will be than they were 1.5 years ago.

I think the best place for Giannis is Dallas. Luka, Giannis and Porzingis together would be insane. Just find 3&D guards and wings to play around them.

[Rafael122]

If he doesnt stay with the Bucks, he's going to Toronto. Powell will opt out and they'll waive everyone else to get to 37M in capspace
FVV
OG
Siakim
Giannis
FA Center

They win the East and probably a chip or two with that squad, Masai, and Nurse. That team is better than the Kawhi team with how much better the other 3 guys are/will be than they were 1.5 years ago.

I think the best place for Giannis is Dallas. Luka, Giannis and Porzingis together would be insane. Just find 3&D guards and wings to play around them.

Will be interesting to see what Richardson does with his player option. If he opts out, they've got the max cap slot, if he opts in, they're $4 million short of the max slot. That's assuming the salary cap is at $115.

[gambitx777]

I think they reasonably missed the window to rebuild too. They could have maybe gotten something for green last year or the summer before and maybe treaded clay this off season before he got hurt and gotten something. But that's a cold blooded move. Now green is another year older and klay has another bum leg on him. He was a great defender and I don't see how that comes back at his age with those legs. Now you're stuck, so make the best of it. I guess. Kelly O and wiggins are young and nice pieces with some of the other young guys they have. If I were them I'd move green to a bad team in need of a good vet and get off that money you won't get much out of him at all but he isn't a bad contract yet, maybe green for otto porter, or harrison barns, or someone like that from a team looking for more character and maybe you can steal a young contract to make the deal work? Klay.... I'd trade him to a bad team too maybe get a couple of seconds or a first out of him idk. There isn't a deal out there that you can really justify that won't make you look like a **** organization. You might be able to send him to the bulls for otto porter and stuff( maybe felicio and Lauri) but you might have to part with something of value to get that done maybe? Idk. NYC maybe, for randle and nitillkina and smith jr and some seconds. But man none of those are gonna make the warriors look good and honestly they are probably just stuck with klay. Green I would move asap before he shows anymore decline.

Warriors?

Yeah, I think the Warriors' window is over. Even before the Klay injury, I felt that this season was a long shot. Draymond just isn't the same player he was, they have no replacement for Iggy, and Curry is likely to miss a lot of games in this condensed season.

They should probably think about rebuilding, though I realize it's just not feasible to trade away Curry when he means so much to the franchise.

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