Official Trade Thread - Part XXIV

[hege53190]

Expiring contracts for next year are: Okafor, Ariza, Seraphin, Booker, Temple

Team options are: Vesely and Singleton (Beal, but that will be picked up)

That leaves us with a tremendous amount of flexibility... rather have the flexibility than a net negative PER
http://www.82games.com/1213/12MIL11.HTM

Especially given Okafor could walk leaving us without a C.

I don't know what exact number you are looking at. but the one I see is the bucks had a net -.1 point differential with him on the court and a net negative 3.4 point differential per game with him off the court. That gives him a positive 3.3 point differential per game.

I was looking at NET PER against other PFs... I think the negative 3.4 has more to do with Udoh and Ayon. Either way, he wasn't a + point differential. Better than our other PFs, yes. Worth the cap flexibility and pick, no.

Just an opinion of course

Just looking at that stat for the Bucks and I thought it was junk. Then I looked for other teams and it passed the smell test. I don't know what to say. I am blown away.

Somehow Ellis is one of the best players in the league at preventing PER against opposing players which is ridiculous to me because he seems terrible defensively, Brandon Jennings is a net neutral PER per game but the Bucks are 12 points better per game when Jennings is off the floor. Sanders who seems great defensively and MIT has said as much gives up a ridiculous 18.4 PER. Henson who seems well above average defensively gives up a terrible 18.9 PER Ersan who seems average defensively gives up an atrocious 20.9 PER. There just seems to be a terrible disconnect between what I watched and what those stats say.

[Nivek]

Counterpart stats are not very good. The game is 5-on-5, not 5 games of one-on-one. In the counterpart stats, the matchups are generated automatically (a single matchup error means a minimum of 40% of the data is wrong for that stint), there's no accounting for cross-matching (a PG defending a SG or a SF guarding a SG, for example), no accounting for zones or switches, and (worst of all) no accounting for help defense.

[hege53190]

Counterpart stats are not very good. The game is 5-on-5, not 5 games of one-on-one. In the counterpart stats, the matchups are generated automatically (a single matchup error means a minimum of 40% of the data is wrong for that stint), there's no accounting for cross-matching (a PG defending a SG or a SF guarding a SG, for example), no accounting for zones or switches, and (worst of all) no accounting for help defense.

Maybe. I was just thinking that maybe it was miscalculated. I looked at every other team and Ersan was the worst with anybody over 30% or more played. Blake Griffin, David Lee, and Carlos Boozer all had better PER's against than Larry Sanders.

[dckingsfan]

Ersan isn't a terribly good defender anyway... so that may account for part of it. What you will see is players like James have huge NET PERs...

[hege53190]

There is a huge difference between not being a terribly good defender and being by far the worst defender in the league.

I would say Ersan is an average defender. I won't pretend he is great but he is not the worst guy in the league at any position.

The same goes for Monta. Maybe he isn't the worst defender in the league but he definitely is not a shut down guy like those stats suggest.

[montestewart]

There is a huge difference between not being a terribly good defender and being by far the worst defender in the league.

I would say Ersan is an average defender. I won't pretend he is great but he is not the worst guy in the league at any position.

The same goes for Monta. Maybe he isn't the worst defender in the league but he definitely is not a shut down guy like those stats suggest.

I think nate33 on this board has made the case pretty convincingly that some of 82games' stats are apparently auto generated using listed height to assign position, which sometimes produces results that on their face appear wrong. It came up here when discussing Seraphin, listed at 6'9" playing with 6'11" Nene. I don't watch enough Bucks to know, but that could have influenced those stats. In general, agree that in such a fast and constantly shifting game, it's hard to produce accurate, useful counterpart stats.

[dckingsfan]

Ersan is a toro defender not too far from the Jamison mold - IMO. You can recover if you guards are like that, tough when it is your PF. Remember, he had Sanders behind him much of the time... we don't have that luxury.

Much rather have a tough defender on this defensively minded team. Wall and Beal will improve and that will improve the offense.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Everybody that recalls Jamison's bad defense should remember that the Wizards didn't have any rangy perimeter defenders when Antawn was a Wizard. The only guys who tried to defend on the perimeter were Hughes, Jeffries, and Stevenson. Caron Butler and Antawn weren't a good defensive duo. This Wizards team has long defenders with quickness. They can throw Ariza, Temple, Beal, and Wall out to defend. They've also got big men who move their feet and defend inside, Okafor and Nene. This team can afford to add an offense-only player IMO.

A guy like Ersan Ilyasova, even with bad defense, won't be that great of a liability with this group of teammates. The Wizards with Jamison were epically bad defending the perimeter. They weren't keen at stopping big front courts, like the Cavs had with Lebron, either. This Wizards team defends well.

They can use a trade for Ilyasova and he can help, regardless of his defense.

[barelyawake]

What management needs to do is make a list of championship caliber rosters and work backwards (to see the possible ways we can get those pieces).

Wall
Beal
Porter
Ersan/Okafor
Nene /Okafor

Is not a championship roster IMO. Is it closer than what we have? Of course. Should it be what we shoot for? No IMO.

Wall
Beal
Webster or Porter
Okafor
Cousins

Wall
Beal
Webster or Porter
Aldridge or Horford
Nene or Okafor or Monroe

Wall
Beal
Porter
Melo
Okafor
(May be a championship team with the right bench to allow Melo to split time at SF).

Wall
Beal
Webster/Melo
Melo/Okafor
Hibbert/Okafor
(That's one. I'm just brainstorming).

Keep in mind, when doing future planning, SF is the easiest position to fill late in the draft. Also know that defensive centers are easy to draft late (though may take two years to develop). Star post players are the hardest player to acquire either via draft or trade. So, all efforts should go into getting the star post player first, and then filling in via draft or free agency. Porter is our most expendable asset, and the one we should least rely on becoming a star.

Wall
Beal
Porter
Ersan
Hibbert
(That's one)

Once you get the combos, then work backwards on how to get them here (if possible). Obviously, Pacers arent trading Hibbert. I'm just making combos that work. Otherwise, you are building without a vision for the future.

If Porter had the lateral quickness to be a roaming shotblocking SF, he could cover for Ersan. If Okafor or Nene were post options, versus clean-up scores, they could cover for Ersan's lack of post ability. Plus, Okafor is not enough of a defensive intimidator in the post to allow for Ersan's lack of defense and rebounding.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Bucks fan here.

Odds of Washington accepting a Ersan for Vesley, Seraphin, unprotected 2014 pick.

Basically it is a gamble. If Washington makes the playoffs (which is very likely). Washington wins the trade. If they just miss the playoffs and get a late lotto pick, I think the trade is even and if Washington gets a top lotto pick Milwaukee wins the trade.

I think Ersan is a very good player. I think he would fit and be great on just about any team. With him I believe Milwaukee is a playoff team without him I believe Milwaukee is one of the worst teams in the league. I want to be one of the worst teams in the league.

Edit-please don't counter with a lotto protected pick.

Not sure I do that move for Ilyasova. I'd do it for Cousins...

http://basketball.realgm.com/tradecheck ... de/6329101


But I wouldn't dismiss the deal for Ilyasova, it's worth considering. A center rotation of Okafor and Nene, and a PF rotation of Nene, Ilyasova, Booker is pretty good. The pick should be outta lottery, especially with adding Ilyasova.

And it doesn't kill our cap, we'd still have Ariza as an additional trade chip as mentioned before, or the salary space provided with him and Okafor expiring.


Okafor, Nene
Nene, Ilyasova, Booker
Ariza, Webster, Porter
Beal, Webster, Rice
Wall, Maynor

I'd envision basically a starting 5 of Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene, Okafor with Ilyasova and Webster top reserves 1st off the bench, bringing some scoring pop. Maynor, Porter, Booker would round out top 10. If healthy, that does look like a very good team IMO.

[hands11]

OK here is my championship roster.

Wall
Beal
Webster
Dirk
Nene/Okafor

Details filled in as needed such as who else is in the deal, picks, Dirk extended first, etc.

Dirk on a 3 year contract at say 10M.

I would like to keep as much as we can involving Kevin, Ves, Booker. Would be willing to let Otto get packaged as of now but we get to see him this season to help decide. Actually we get to see Kevin, Ves and Booker this year as well. Hell, maybe Trevor A is kept. Not sure. Just know I want Dirk here.

I don't have enough information on all the players involved right now to know which to move, thats what this season is about. But something involving Trevor A most likely. Probably more then one way to make this happen.

[theboomking]

What management needs to do is make a list of championship caliber rosters and work backwards (to see the possible ways we can get there

That is the opposite of how I might consider doing things. I would first try to make the one big trade or signing, but assuming that isn't available, which I don't think it currently is, I would be in asset accumulation mode. Our 2014 1st is likely to be a lotto pick in the teens, at best. That isn't a very good piece in a trade. I would try to move that pick for a usable piece, that could also be used as an asset in a future trade, like Ersan, or Ryan Anderson(I would require top 4 or 5 protection for Anderson). I would then try to sign Monroe to a large contract and hope Detroit doesn't match. If we want to trade for Kevin Love or Cousins, or whoever, we are going to need assets, and right now, We don't have that many moveable pieces, beyond Wall and Beal, who aren't going anywhere.

[hands11]

What management needs to do is make a list of championship caliber rosters and work backwards (to see the possible ways we can get there

That is the opposite of how I might consider doing things. I would first try to make the one big trade or signing, but assuming that isn't available, which I don't think it currently is, I would be in asset accumulation mode. Our 2014 1st is likely to be a lotto pick in the teens, at best. That isn't a very good piece in a trade. I would try to move that pick for a usable piece, that could also be used as an asset in a future trade, like Ersan, or Ryan Anderson(I would require top 4 or 5 protection for Anderson). I would then try to sign Monroe to a large contract and hope Detroit doesn't match. If we want to trade for Kevin Love or Cousins, or whoever, we are going to need assets, and right now, We don't have that many moveable pieces, beyond Wall and Beal, who aren't going anywhere.

Actually, targeting a group of players, putting feelers out there for what that team is thinking and what they need, then working backward into what work best for you and them works better. Plan for the best. Cover you ass fall back plans.

Run 3 or 4 main scenarios and try to navigate in the common ground area. You have to know who is free and when so you are ready to jump on the opportunity. But that's what a front office does. They are always planning and running models of what can happen, where they expect to pick, cap space, where you player fit if they reach potential or should they be traded to balance the roster, etc. Wizards are in full blow stage 3 getting ready to enter the final stage after this season if all goes well.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Actually, targeting a group of players

I'd like to see one of these 3 here next season, either via trade or free agency...

1. Greg Monroe
2. LaMarcus Aldridge
3. DeMarcus Cousins


And that's the order I'd preference them in. To add a star caliber big in his prime is the next move for this team.

[stevemcqueen1]

What management needs to do is make a list of championship caliber rosters and work backwards (to see the possible ways we can get there

That is the opposite of how I might consider doing things. I would first try to make the one big trade or signing, but assuming that isn't available, which I don't think it currently is, I would be in asset accumulation mode. Our 2014 1st is likely to be a lotto pick in the teens, at best. That isn't a very good piece in a trade. I would try to move that pick for a usable piece, that could also be used as an asset in a future trade, like Ersan, or Ryan Anderson(I would require top 4 or 5 protection for Anderson). I would then try to sign Monroe to a large contract and hope Detroit doesn't match. If we want to trade for Kevin Love or Cousins, or whoever, we are going to need assets, and right now, We don't have that many moveable pieces, beyond Wall and Beal, who aren't going anywhere.

I'd be patient and just keep building through the draft for now. I'm pretty satisfied with Wall, Beal, and Porter as a long term big three. I'd be very hesitant to make any big time trades or FA signings. We've built the foundation of an ideal team culture IMO. Everyone is so unselfish and low maintenance now. I don't know if I want to bring in anyone who would disrupt that.

I think you're right that the mid to late teens draft pick we're likely to get this season will have little trade value. That's why I'd probably just keep it and use it on a project. This upcoming class should be very deep, you've got a good chance of getting a player with a good NBA body or excellent athleticism at that range this year.

[hands11]

Actually, targeting a group of players

I'd like to see one of these 3 here next season, either via trade or free agency...

1. Lebron
2. Dirk
3. LaMarcus Aldridge
4. Greg Monroe

And that's the order I'd preference them in. To add a star caliber big in his prime is the next move for this team.

Fixed

I would put Dirk above all those names. Yeah, getting a player in their prime that you think "could" be great in a conference title level game is nice. What I believe is way better is getting a player like Dirk who have been through the fire and won it all. He knows what it like producing in those games. At the higher level. With everything on the line. Its way different.

At the middle to end of stage 3, entering stage four, this is kind of players you want to add. It not just about talent anymore. Its about know production at the highest level and experience. Boogie isn't even in the ball park. He is 5 miles away from being a reliable productive player in a conference title game. One a team that only has Trevor A and Nene as those known players, you don't add you last big piece as a player that doesn't have that experience.

Adding players like a Greg Monroe is always nice, but at this point, you want players who have been to the top. That isn't a Cousins or Greg. That's your Dirk types. Kobe. PP. KG. If you can find them younger great, but that's even harder. That a LeBron.

I would rather have an older version of this player over a Monroe at this point. You get Dirk for 3 years. That a long time.

After you have won with a player like Dirk for 3 years, then I would go for a player like Monroe. Because at that point, Wall and Beal would be your top stars that have that conference title experience so you can bring in someone with the talent but not the experience. Actually, winning a title experience it what you really want. Again, that is Dirk.

Deep playoff off success is a huge asset. Proving you can do it there is a huge leap from just being a great talent. We might think Monroe would be good in that level of game, but we don't know it.

Right now, we don't know how Wall or Beal will do either. This year will be their first taste and they will learn a lot. Its going to take another 2-3 years of playoff experience for them to get to that talented vet playoff success level status. Players like Dirk are already there.

Crappy teams that are not established winning franchises have a hard time attracting these kind of players sou o we have gotten used to just looking at raw talent. At that stage, you are happy to find a Wall or Beal. But to add that last piece, you want a lot more then that. Specially if you are inking them for big money. Hell, Melo hasn't even proven he can win. If my goal is to win it all, first player I target is a great player that has won it all. Then I work backward. You would take a LeBron pre winning a title. But there are very few of them. Like a KG.

I would go Dirk first at this point. If they could have pulled it off, I would have gone with RA the year before and PP and KG this year.

[Ruzious]

OK here is my championship roster.

Wall
Beal
Webster
Dirk
Nene/Okafor

Details filled in as needed such as who else is in the deal, picks, Dirk extended first, etc.

Dirk on a 3 year contract at say 10M.

I would like to keep as much as we can involving Kevin, Ves, Booker. Would be willing to let Otto get packaged as of now but we get to see him this season to help decide. Actually we get to see Kevin, Ves and Booker this year as well. Hell, maybe Trevor A is kept. Not sure. Just know I want Dirk here.

I don't have enough information on all the players involved right now to know which to move, thats what this season is about. But something involving Trevor A most likely. Probably more then one way to make this happen.

Dirk may be the best realistic option for the Wiz if they go the free agent route next offseason. But there are some problems. First, I doubt we could squeeze both Dirk and Okafor under the cap. Okafor would have to settle for far less than what he could get on the market. EG did some things this offseason that will end up eating cap up needlessly - 1 was giving a player option to Maynor for 2.1 mil, and the other was giving Webster a deal where he counts 5.4 mil against the cap for the 2014/15 season - which is likely over a million more than was needed to keep him, imo. Second, Dirk will be 36, and his numbers did decline a bit (his first PER under 20 since his 2nd year in the NBA) - but that's what could make him available to come here - and for something reasonable like the 3/30 deal you suggested. And instead of Okafor, hopefully the team gets a good backup center in the draft and a under-appreciated defensive big for the minimum. You may not have a championship roster, but with good health and luck, you can compete for it.

[hands11]

What management needs to do is make a list of championship caliber rosters and work backwards (to see the possible ways we can get there

That is the opposite of how I might consider doing things. I would first try to make the one big trade or signing, but assuming that isn't available, which I don't think it currently is, I would be in asset accumulation mode. Our 2014 1st is likely to be a lotto pick in the teens, at best. That isn't a very good piece in a trade. I would try to move that pick for a usable piece, that could also be used as an asset in a future trade, like Ersan, or Ryan Anderson(I would require top 4 or 5 protection for Anderson). I would then try to sign Monroe to a large contract and hope Detroit doesn't match. If we want to trade for Kevin Love or Cousins, or whoever, we are going to need assets, and right now, We don't have that many moveable pieces, beyond Wall and Beal, who aren't going anywhere.

I'd be patient and just keep building through the draft for now. I'm pretty satisfied with Wall, Beal, and Porter as a long term big three. I'd be very hesitant to make any big time trades or FA signings. We've built the foundation of an ideal team culture IMO. Everyone is so unselfish and low maintenance now. I don't know if I want to bring in anyone who would disrupt that.

I think you're right that the mid to late teens draft pick we're likely to get this season will have little trade value. That's why I'd probably just keep it and use it on a project. This upcoming class should be very deep, you've got a good chance of getting a player with a good NBA body or excellent athleticism at that range this year.

I agree, I would be in no hurry to make that move right now because they have plenty to gel as it is.

They have two young studs in Wall and Beal.
They have two experienced playoff vets in Trevor A and Nene. But only Trevor A has won it all.
Actually Maynor has deep playoff experience as a back up though.
They have a solid vets in Okafor and Webster that don't have that winning playoff experience.

Wall, Beal, Webster/Trevor A, Nene and Okafor with Maynor as back up PG and maybe Glen cutting his teeth is a team that can get some playoff wins so the younger players and solid vets can start to learn that level of play.

But if one of those players like Dirk comes free, you jump even if you aren't completely ready to do it. Trade dead line would actually be a good time. If not, next summer.

If Dallas is the a failure this year, Dirk is going to want out. They need to tank for a pick and rebuild.

I would consider trying to keep Trevor A if he can be convinced to stay and giving Dallas Otto, a pick or two. hell, they can have Singleton and Maynor as well. Maybe Kevin S. A sign and trade over the summer. Or maybe Dirk just walks.

Wall
Beal
Webster/Trevor A
Dirk
Nene/Okafor

That team could challenge.

[hands11]

OK here is my championship roster.

Wall
Beal
Webster
Dirk
Nene/Okafor

Details filled in as needed such as who else is in the deal, picks, Dirk extended first, etc.

Dirk on a 3 year contract at say 10M.

I would like to keep as much as we can involving Kevin, Ves, Booker. Would be willing to let Otto get packaged as of now but we get to see him this season to help decide. Actually we get to see Kevin, Ves and Booker this year as well. Hell, maybe Trevor A is kept. Not sure. Just know I want Dirk here.

I don't have enough information on all the players involved right now to know which to move, thats what this season is about. But something involving Trevor A most likely. Probably more then one way to make this happen.

Dirk may be the best realistic option for the Wiz if they go the free agent route next offseason. But there are some problems. First, I doubt we could squeeze both Dirk and Okafor under the cap. Okafor would have to settle for far less than what he could get on the market. EG did some things this offseason that will end up eating cap up needlessly - 1 was giving a player option to Maynor for 2.1 mil, and the other was giving Webster a deal where he counts 5.4 mil against the cap for the 2014/15 season - which is likely over a million more than was needed to keep him, imo. Second, Dirk will be 36, and his numbers did decline a bit (his first PER under 20 since his 2nd year in the NBA) - but that's what could make him available to come here - and for something reasonable like the 3/30 deal you suggested. And instead of Okafor, hopefully the team gets a good backup center in the draft and a under-appreciated defensive big for the minimum. You may not have a championship roster, but with good health and luck, you can compete for it.

The numbers are hard to figure out because there are so many ways this could happen.

Trade dead line ? Well you have to make it work with Dirk's existing 22M and you have to know what he would extend for. Trade deadline would only happen with Trevor A and Okafor but I don't know why Dallas would do that. Both would leave and all Dallas gets are picks from us. Doesn't look like this is a good option for Dallas.

Off-Season ? Well then Dirk is a UFA. Does he just walk ? If he does, you don't give up players to Dallas but you need 10M in cap to sign him. Maybe you get him to sing a 8/10/12 contract. Could we find a way to clear that cap space. What might the cap be next year ? Might be tight. It would mean letting all of Okafor, Trevor A, Ves and Singleton walk for nothing.

Off-Season Sign and Trade. I think this is much more doable. We can send them assets to get close to 10M Otto would be 4.4M of it. Maynor 2M Then maybe one of Singleton, Booker, Kevin or Ves.

I would think Otto, Kevin S, Maynor plus pick(s) should get it done.

We could even resign Trevor A and Okafor first and still make it work because we would be over the cap but under luxury. Seems doing it in a sign and trade over the summer give us and them the more options. Dallas get the most. Depends on how Dirk wants things to go down.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

One strategy I would like to see used is to trade for a diamond in the rough.

The Magic stole Tobias Harris from the Bucks. Milwaukee apparently didn't realize how good Harris could be. One way to improve the Wizards bench is to nab a potentially good or an underrated player from another team.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rder_by=ws

Ed Davis, Brandan Wright, Arnett Moutrie. and Greg Smith are diamonds that I like.

I would love for the Wizards to trade for any of those four players. Moutrie doesn't shoot threes, but he seems like a scoring big that the Wizards could use.

Like Ed Davis, from the link above, Kosta Koufos will come off the bench for the Grizzlies. I think he and J. J. Hickson are underrated. So is Amir Johnson.