Otto Porter Part 2

[stevemcqueen1]

Otto is not a shot creator, facilitator, nor impact defensive player. For him to have the true value of a max player I think he needs to gain a bunch of mass and strength in his legs and develop a post game and move to PF. It should be doable.

Otto is a natural low post player. He did not grow up playing AAU like all of the other stud American perimeter players in the league. He grew up playing center and learned the game the old school way and his skill set reflects this. On offense he is a high level off ball player and finisher. He's a great rebounder. And he is a good weak side helper and passing lane hawk. But his movement and athletic skills are underdeveloped. He has no first step and doesn't move well laterally. He's not an explosive athlete and his handles look basic for the SF position. He can't slash and he can't stay in front of perimeter ball handlers. He is a low usage finisher, not a high usage creator. He wins with his length, anticipation, and silky shooting touch.

I think the Wizards need a junk yard dog on ball defender on the perimeter to ever have a shot at playing good defense. This is another big reason Otto fits best at PF on a Wall/Beal team.

Otto has the height/length and interior scoring and rebounding ability to play PF full time. He just lacks the strength and bulk to do it. If he got strong enough, with his shooting range, Otto would be one of the best stretch 4s in the league. We need him to make this transition because we're going to max him this summer.

[deneem4]

He's an elite finisher
Elite rebounder on the wing
Above average 3pt shooter on the wing...
Above average cutter
Good help defender
Average on ball defender...

He's worth a max...

[dangermouse]

Trade Beal for whatever. Get out of that contract and give the money to Otto. He is the superior player.

[Illmatic12]

SF's Ranked by WS/48
1. Durant
2. Butler
3. Giannis
4. Kawhi
5. Hayward
6. Lebron
7. Porter
8. Ariza
9. Carroll
10. Gallinari

SF's Ranked by PER
1. Durant
2. Butler
3. Giannis
4. Kawhi
5. Lebron
6. Hayward
7. Porter
8. George
9. Melo
10. Chandler

SF's Ranked by BPM:
1. Giannis
2. Durant
3. Butler
4. Lebron
5. Kawhi
6. Porter
7. Hayward
8. Ariza
9. Carroll
10. George

SF's Ranked by VORP:
1. Giannis
2. Durant
3. Butler
4. Lebron
5. Kawhi
6. Ariza
7. Porter
8. Hayward
9. Batum
10. Gay

Looking at all the summary metrics combined, the top 3 SF's are clearly Durant, Giannis and Butler in some order, with Kawhi and Lebron right behind them. After that, it's Hayward and Porter tied in the 6-7 range. Ariza, George and Carroll are in the 8-10 range (and the gap between them and Hayward/Porter is actually fairly large). Batum, Gay, Gallinari and Chandler are after that.

Oh, and here are their ages:
Giannis - 22
Porter - 23
Kawhi - 25
Hayward - 26
George - 26
Butler - 27
Durant - 28
Carroll - 30
Ariza - 31
Lebron - 32

I haven't looked at the numbers, but I have a hard time buying that Kawhi and Lebron are in the 2nd tier of 3's. It's great to see Giannis in the top 3. Amazing how the Bucks made such a good move to draft him but have followed that up with so many questionable to very poor moves.

Why is otto porter ranked 52 for free throw attempts for the season? Because he n't elite.He is not athletically dominant over most starting small forwards---that he can't force a ref to call a foul due to him being a better offensive player than the small forward defending him defensively.It's like a scale, if otto porter weighed 100lbs offensively, and his defender only weighed 50lbs, defensively, otto would greatly tip the scale in our favor. He is usually tied or worse offensively compared to the defensive rating of his defender. We need our best players to greatly tip the scale in our favor.

Easiest way to see who tips the scale in your favor offensively is through free throw attempts because it involves a neutral ref admitting that the offensive player was superior to the defensive player.
If otto were elite, he would be lead all small forwards (or at least be top ten in the league free throw attempts per game for small forwards. The wizards record is poor because otto porter can't get to the line when his team needs him to sielite playoff teams. I said it.

WizardDynasty I agree. Porter is a 6'9 wing player and his FTrate is 0.134.. that is simply atrocious, and what makes it worse is he's regressed in that regard over his career.

Otto is good at a lot of things, but he needs to become more of a threat with the ball in his hands.

[NatP4]

Otto is not a shot creator, facilitator, nor impact defensive player. For him to have the true value of a max player I think he needs to gain a bunch of mass and strength in his legs and develop a post game and move to PF. It should be doable.

Otto is a natural low post player. He did not grow up playing AAU like all of the other stud American perimeter players in the league. He grew up playing center and learned the game the old school way and his skill set reflects this. On offense he is a high level off ball player and finisher. He's a great rebounder. And he is a good weak side helper and passing lane hawk. But his movement and athletic skills are underdeveloped. He has no first step and doesn't move well laterally. He's not an explosive athlete and his handles look basic for the SF position. He can't slash and he can't stay in front of perimeter ball handlers. He is a low usage finisher, not a high usage creator. He wins with his length, anticipation, and silky shooting touch.

I think the Wizards need a junk yard dog on ball defender on the perimeter to ever have a shot at playing good defense. This is another big reason Otto fits best at PF on a Wall/Beal team.

Otto has the height/length and interior scoring and rebounding ability to play PF full time. He just lacks the strength and bulk to do it. If he got strong enough, with his shooting range, Otto would be one of the best stretch 4s in the league. We need him to make this transition because we're going to max him this summer.

And Otto loves playing the 4 and he's good at it. It's clearly ernies plan from day 1 of drafting Kelly Oubre, the problem is neither coach will consistently go it it.

It's simple, in the past, the teams strength that took them to the next level was small ball, Pierce at the 4, the teams only other player with potential that gets **** on in terms of minutes is.....Oubre. THE TEAMS BEST LINEUP THIS SEASON WAS WITH OUBRE AND OTTO. ONE OF THE TOP 2 MAN COMBOS IS OUBRE AND OTTO. WHO ARE THE ONLY TWO PLAYERS THAT CONSISTENTLY PLAY HARD? OUBRE AND OTTO. WHAT SHOUKD THE STARTING 5 BE? WALL BEAL OUBRE OTTO WHOEVER

What do we get stuck with? Jason smith playing the 4...

[Ruzious]

Otto's still probably under 210 lbs. When he tries to cover guys like LMA, it's a joke. Otto's primarily a 3 for good reason.

[NatP4]

Otto's still probably under 210 lbs. When he tries to cover guys like LMA, it's a joke. Otto's primarily a 3 for good reason.

Wanna hear an even better joke? Markieff Morris playing weakside/help defense and rebounding.

[NatP4]

Nothing about this teams long term plans for the core should revolve around the best scoring PF on one of the best teams in the west. Tell me which PF in the east is supposed to scare me from playing Otto at the 4 when I have John Wall getting guys the ball?

[Ruzious]

Nothing about this teams long term plans for the core should revolve around the best scoring PF on one of the best teams in the west. Tell me which PF in the east is supposed to scare me from playing Otto at the 4 when I have John Wall getting guys the ball?

Meh. You're going to assume other teams won't improve and evolve? Meanwhile, Otto isn't strong enough to defend guys like George, Melo, and Lebron on a regular basis.

[NatP4]

Nothing about this teams long term plans for the core should revolve around the best scoring PF on one of the best teams in the west. Tell me which PF in the east is supposed to scare me from playing Otto at the 4 when I have John Wall getting guys the ball?

Meh. You're going to assume other teams won't improve and evolve? Meanwhile, Otto isn't strong enough to defend guys like George, Melo, and Lebron on a regular basis.

I think his issue is more lateral quickness on those guys, he has to play way off of them, but the only guy on this team with the potential to be able to guard those guys is Oubre.. they gotta get him some more consistent minutes. And keef doesn't even space the floor with the starters, it just turns into a mid range chuckfest with John wan Brad like old times . Otto would be fine on a Paul Millsap or Kevin love imo.

[stevemcqueen1]

At this point, I don't see what playing Otto primarily at the four and giving Oubre bigger minutes at the three could hurt. You can sub Kieff out 6 or 7 minutes into the game, move Otto to PF, sub Oubre in, and get Kieff the rest of his at the 5 and at PF for the second unit.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

If Beal got a max contract, there really should be no argument against giving Porter one. Beal should be on the trade block to make room for cap space if needed, or Wall, if we are looking to do a quick rebuild with a young PG from this draft (hometown hero Fultz!)

[NatP4]

At this point, I don't see what playing Otto primarily at the four and giving Oubre bigger minutes at the three could hurt. You can sub Kieff out 6 or 7 minutes into the game, move Otto to PF, sub Oubre in, and get Kieff the rest of his at the 5 and at PF for the second unit.

YES, pretty much the rotation they used in the playoffs a couple years ago. And in the short term, it prevents you from having to play Jason smith. All along Scott Brooks main goal should be shaping his rotation to get the right guys starter minutes and play to the teams strenghts.

Wall/Sato
Beal/Anyone but Marcus Thornton
Oubre/Otto
Porter/Keef
Gortat/Keef

Now really what this team needs to look at is moving that 1st round pick for Nerlens Noel, and moving gortat for a GOOD backup 2 guard. Hell, I didn't see Mario Hezonja playing last night, maybe someone could steal him for cheap? They need to get here:

Wall/Sato
Beal/Upgrade(Hezonja)
Oubre
Porter/Keef
Noel/Mahinmi

[Ruzious]

Pierce, Gooden, and Nene got the bulk of the minutes at the 4 in the playoffs.

[NatP4]

Pierce, Gooden, and Nene got the bulk of the minutes at the 4 in the playoffs.

Yeah and nene would sub back in at the 5 to replace gortat, and Gooden was shooting 40% from 3 in those playoffs as the backup stretch 4.

Mahinmi and Gortat man the 5 and keef and Otto play the 4 and GET KELLY MORE MINUTES.

[jrob23]

You haters are nuts. 23 y/o and is already top 10 SF in the league and he's improved every year. You wanted scoring? He's gotten better. But can he hit the three? Doing it now. Be more aggressive and get to the FT line? I'm sure that's next on his agenda. He has elite size for a SF. I've seen him guard 2 through 5 and hold his own down the line. It's better to pay a player who has improved every year and on the rise, than pay a guy who has plateaued but that's his current market rate. Other players see that and want to emulate him. He's absolutely worth the max. You just need to be getting more from Mahinmi and Nicholson. Those moves are disastrous and has left you with one of the worst benches in the league. You can draft someone like Adebayo, Markkanen, Leaf, or Rabb and hope the rest get acclimated and produce like they're getting paid. If you had all hands on deck you might have pulled out a couple of those close games and be looking much better.

[payitforward]

You haters are nuts. 23 y/o and is already top 10 SF in the league and he's improved every year. You wanted scoring? He's gotten better. But can he hit the three? Doing it now. Be more aggressive and get to the FT line? I'm sure that's next on his agenda. He has elite size for a SF. I've seen him guard 2 through 5 and hold his own down the line. It's better to pay a player who has improved every year and on the rise, than pay a guy who has plateaued but that's his current market rate. Other players see that and want to emulate him. He's absolutely worth the max. You just need to be getting more from Mahinmi and Nicholson. Those moves are disastrous and has left you with one of the worst benches in the league. You can draft someone like Adebayo, Markkanen, Leaf, or Rabb and hope the rest get acclimated and produce like they're getting paid. If you had all hands on deck you might have pulled out a couple of those close games and be looking much better.

Nice to see an intelligent post about Otto. But... we won't be getting any more from Nicholson, because he doesn't have any more.

[payitforward]

Unfortunately, I have a pretty clear sense that Ted/Ernie won't max Otto and that we'll lose him. It's very difficult to overestimate how clueless our FO has become.

[nate33]

At this point, I don't see what playing Otto primarily at the four and giving Oubre bigger minutes at the three could hurt. You can sub Kieff out 6 or 7 minutes into the game, move Otto to PF, sub Oubre in, and get Kieff the rest of his at the 5 and at PF for the second unit.

YES, pretty much the rotation they used in the playoffs a couple years ago. And in the short term, it prevents you from having to play Jason smith. All along Scott Brooks main goal should be shaping his rotation to get the right guys starter minutes and play to the teams strenghts.

Wall/Sato
Beal/Anyone but Marcus Thornton
Oubre/Otto
Porter/Keef
Gortat/Keef

We are pretty much doing this already. Ever since Oubre emerged as a reasonably reliable rotation player, we have barely seen anybody but Porter, Morris and Oubre at the forward spots.

In the past 10 games, Nicholson and Smith have combined to play a grand total of 50 minutes at the PF spot, and most of that was due to Oubre playing just 2 minutes in the San Antonio game. (I don't recall why. Nicholson played 16 minutes at PF that game.) So, ignore the San Antonio game, and Nicholson/Smith have averaged just 2 minutes per game at PF. Oubre, Morris and Porter combine for the rest of those forward minutes, with Porter being the PF whenever Morris sits.

If there's a lineup change to be made, it would be to try and avoid having Beal/Sato/Thornton playing any SF minutes so that Oubre can get all of them. Ideally, Morris should play about 34 minutes at PF, Porter should get the other 14 minutes at PF plus another 22 minutes at SF, and Oubre gets 26 minutes at SF. But sometimes, handling 2 positions with just 3 players gets difficult to manage when there's foul trouble or specific matchup problems. You have to expect a little of Beal/Sato/Thornton or Nicholson/Smith taking a few of those minutes from Oubre in some games.

[stevemcqueen1]

Nate I think Porter should be playing the majority of his minutes at PF. In an ideal world, Morris doesn't play 34 MPG either. Say you move Porter to 22-24 MPG at PF, you can accommodate that by reducing Morris's minutes a bit and giving him the rest at C by using a small line up. Then give Kelly those other minutes so that he's at 30 MPG and is basically playing the role of 6th man.

Maybe Kelly's not ready for that big a role yet. But we're already losing. Might as well try and develop him.