Bradley Beal - Part III

[dckingsfan]

Beal will definitely be one of the keys this season. I hope he goes back to the efficient BB of 2016-17 - that could lead to a better regular season record. I hope his minutes heads back to the low 2000s vs. mid 2000s.

[payitforward]

Just had a three minute chat with Beal on a plane to Vegas. Told him I was a big fan. Told him I thought they were a two-three seed in the east and could take any of the teams in the East. He agreed.

He has his first kid on Tuesday, & on Thursday he's on a plane to Vegas?

Did he mention what he was going out there to do?

Training, no doubt.

He's allowed to have a private life and enjoy Vegas. I expect it's not at all unusual for wealthy NBA players to gamble some. Fwiw, a friend of mine played blackjack at MGM in MD during last season with Beal and Gortat. She told me comedian Jim Gaffigan was also playing in the game (He had performed a few hours earlier in the theater next door) and hit on her during the game - kinda disappointing to hear because I enjoyed his family-based humor.

Certainly, he is. I was just curious....

[Illmatic12]

He has his first kid on Tuesday, & on Thursday he's on a plane to Vegas?

Did he mention what he was going out there to do?

Training, no doubt.

He's allowed to have a private life and enjoy Vegas. I expect it's not at all unusual for wealthy NBA players to gamble some. Fwiw, a friend of mine played blackjack at MGM in MD during last season with Beal and Gortat. She told me comedian Jim Gaffigan was also playing in the game (He had performed a few hours earlier in the theater next door) and hit on her during the game - kinda disappointing to hear because I enjoyed his family-based humor.

Certainly, he is. I was just curious....

Brad is in Vegas coaching his youth AAU team

Read on Twitter

I thought it was weird too, only bc Beal turned down his invite to the Team USA camp (which is also happening in Vegas) on account of his son being born. Yet he ends up in Vegas anyways lol?

I’m guessing he’s just tired/sleep deprived from the newborn and didn’t feel like playing competitive basketball, which I can understand.

[TheBabyMaker]

He's allowed to have a private life and enjoy Vegas. I expect it's not at all unusual for wealthy NBA players to gamble some. Fwiw, a friend of mine played blackjack at MGM in MD during last season with Beal and Gortat. She told me comedian Jim Gaffigan was also playing in the game (He had performed a few hours earlier in the theater next door) and hit on her during the game - kinda disappointing to hear because I enjoyed his family-based humor.

Certainly, he is. I was just curious....

Brad is in Vegas coaching his youth AAU team

Read on Twitter

I thought it was weird too, only bc Beal turned down his invite to the Team USA camp (which is also happening in Vegas) on account of his son being born. Yet he ends up in Vegas anyways lol?

I’m guessing he’s just tired/sleep deprived from the newborn and didn’t feel like playing competitive basketball, which I can understand.

Help me figure this out

Wait his Lady just gave birth to a newborn a few days and he is tired already. Just wait he aint seen **** yet being a farther or he just going to hire a Nanny to babysit all the time.SMH

[DCZards]

Bump...

BB has been balling out. Attacking the basket and scoring through contact, knocking down 3s, and playing hard-nosed D. He's our best player, imo...or, at the very least, he's the Zards MVP.

A few days ago a poster called Beal "injury prone." Well, he played 82 games last season and 77 the season before. So I think we can put that injury prone stuff in the past.

[nate33]

Bump...

BB has been balling out. Attacking the basket and scoring through contact, knocking down 3s, and playing hard-nosed D. He's our best player, imo...or, at the very least, he's the Zards MVP.

A few days ago a poster called Beal "injury prone." Well, he played 82 games last season and 77 the season before. So I think we can put that injury prone stuff in the past.

Let's not shortchange Wall. He has been balling out too. His PER and WS/48 are ahead of Beal, his ORtg and TS% are close, and he has logged more minutes by avoiding foul trouble. His steals and blocks are insane so far.

[payitforward]

Wall is playing at a level way above his best year. But... lets be realistic, ok? It's 70 minutes!!

For that matter, Ben Simmons, Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, Damian Lillard & Eric Bledsoe are all playing even better -- at levels no PG has ever posted on a season.

IOW, no conclusions to draw -- but it's great to see John playing this way all the same!

Beal had a great shooting night vs. Toronto. & shot the 2pt attempts well vs. Miami. Other than shooting well, he's got some problems I'd say: 6.67 fouls per 40 minutes? Virtually no rebounding? Still, he's at a level above 2016-17, so you are right that overall so far so good.

In short, in 132 minutes, Wall & Beal are playing better than ever.

Only problem: Mahinmi, Green, Oubre & Smith have combined for 153 minutes & have played so badly it's hard to believe.

Plus the double-sided good news: overall, Austin Rivers has been better so far than he was last year, meaning that he's playing at his all-time highest level overall. The double-sided piece of that is he's playing really badly.

Kieff is too -- & that amounts to over half our minutes.

Sato is playing ok but of course getting no minutes.

[nate33]

I came across this article about Steph Curry's ability to help his teammates score efficiently without actually being the guy making the assist, and I noticed Bradley Beal's name in one of the graphics. It seems that Bradley Beal is one of the best in the league at this too. Not in Curry's league to be sure, but better than most. Only Curry, Lebron, Westbrook, Cousins(?) and Thompson look better (and Thompson's impact is probably conflated with Curry's). Here is the graphic:

Once again, we can contrast Curry’s stats with his peers’ — this time using the league’s best scorers as the comparison group (i.e., the 30 players with the highest scoring averages over the past four seasons combined). Take a look at the average improvement in teammate true shooting percentage (weighted by field goal attempts) when each star player is on the court. Curry’s impact is unparalleled. He’s responsible for both of the top two seasons, including last year’s astounding +8.0 TS%. Even his least impressive seasons (+4.7 TS%) eclipse the best efforts from all but three of the league’s other biggest stars (LeBron James, Thompson, and DeMarcus Cousins).

I'd be curious if those two red dots on the right end of Beal's line represent the last two seasons, or are they from seasons past.

With respect to PIF, this is why I consider Beal better than Porter. His actual box score stats may be less efficient, but his presence makes life a lot easier for his teammates. Defenses have to account for what Beal is doing at all times. Just by setting the right back screen, he can force defenses into awkward switches and missed rotations that open up the floor for everyone else.

[trast66]

Fighting with Austin Rivers, calling out Ernie, all time team leader in 3 pointers made.

Time to raise his jersey to the rafters!

[nate33]

Fighting with Austin Rivers, calling out Ernie, all time team leader in 3 pointers made.

Time to raise his jersey to the rafters!

If Beal gets Grunfeld fired, he should honestly get MVP consideration.

[truwizfan4evr]

Fighting with Austin Rivers, calling out Ernie, all time team leader in 3 pointers made.

Time to raise his jersey to the rafters!

If Beal gets Grunfeld fired, he should honestly get MVP consideration.

[nate33]

Beal is having a great season with the exception of his 3P%.

He is currently shooting 56% on 2-pointers, a career best by a lot. He is shooting an unbelievable .766 at the rim (a career high by a country mile), and he's right around his career highs in percentage of shots at the rim. His frequency of long 2's is way down but when he shoots them, he is still hitting a pretty good 45.5% of them (second best in his career). He is just barely off his assist rate of last year (half the season without Wall) but his turnovers are down from 2.6 to 2.2.

The only problem, and it's a big one, is his horrific percentage from 3. He had a career average 3P% of .393 going into this season. This year, he is hitting just 32.5% of them. And from what I'm seeing, it's not that he's shooting a lot of high degree of difficulty 3's. He's missing the wide open catch-and-shoots. Indeed, he might even be shooting better on contested 3's than on open 3's.

Overall, Beal is having his 2nd best offensive season, averaging 29.4 points per 100 possession on a TS% of .570. (His best was in 2016-17 when he averaged 32.7 per 100 with a TS% of .604.) However, if Beal was simply shooting his career average from 3-point range, he'd be averaging 31.8 points per 100 on a TS% of .606 (with much better rebounding, assist, and blocks numbers than in 2016-17).

[queridiculo]

At this point it's got to be mental.

Beal is shooting 36% on wide open shots (>6ft), and 32.8% on open shots (4-6ft).

It isn't just Beal though.

The Wizards are the 4th worst team on wide open attempts (33%), and they inexplicably convert a higher percentage on open shots (34.6%) which puts them right around league average.

League average on wide opens shots is 37%.

[payitforward]

I came across this article about Steph Curry's ability to help his teammates score efficiently without actually being the guy making the assist, and I noticed Bradley Beal's name in one of the graphics. It seems that Bradley Beal is one of the best in the league at this too. Not in Curry's league to be sure, but better than most. Only Curry, Lebron, Westbrook, Cousins(?) and Thompson look better (and Thompson's impact is probably conflated with Curry's). Here is the graphic:

Once again, we can contrast Curry’s stats with his peers’ — this time using the league’s best scorers as the comparison group (i.e., the 30 players with the highest scoring averages over the past four seasons combined). Take a look at the average improvement in teammate true shooting percentage (weighted by field goal attempts) when each star player is on the court. Curry’s impact is unparalleled. He’s responsible for both of the top two seasons, including last year’s astounding +8.0 TS%. Even his least impressive seasons (+4.7 TS%) eclipse the best efforts from all but three of the league’s other biggest stars (LeBron James, Thompson, and DeMarcus Cousins).

I'd be curious if those two red dots on the right end of Beal's line represent the last two seasons, or are they from seasons past.

With respect to PIF, this is why I consider Beal better than Porter. His actual box score stats may be less efficient, but his presence makes life a lot easier for his teammates. Defenses have to account for what Beal is doing at all times. Just by setting the right back screen, he can force defenses into awkward switches and missed rotations that open up the floor for everyone else.

Missed this. Glad to see it now.

At first I thought the dotted lines were in order of the last 4 years w/ last year at the right -- got that idea from Curry's best being his most recent. Then I realized that it couldn't be -- it would mean that everyone listed had gotten better year by year! Naw....

In Brad's case, you are right to ask what seasons the numbers refer to. Suppose they don't match to the levels of his own play? That would make questionable your claim that it supports the idea that Beal has been better than Otto.

Moreover, the positive impact of a player on this list is with respect to another player or players -- the ones on the court when he's not. So if one of those players has a particularly negative impact on other players' shooting (e.g. if he himself is a terrible shooter & gets little defensive attention -- allowing more attention to others on the court), that will make the impact of that first player look greater than it may actually be.

This is why effects of interaction are so squirrelly & difficult to assess.

Moreover, even if we should take Beal's place on this into account when we ask who's better between him & Porter, it's hard to know how much weight to give it. As well, perhaps some of this in Beal's case can be said to come from his playmaking ability. But, in that case, at least some of this effect will already be registered in his assists -- i.e. it's already in the numbers we'd look at to compare the players.

In short... interesting! But I don't think it's adequate reason to "consider Beal better than Porter." At the same time though... it is definitely a good thing!

[payitforward]

Beal is having a great season with the exception of his 3P%.

He is currently shooting 56% on 2-pointers, a career best by a lot. He is shooting an unbelievable .766 at the rim (a career high by a country mile), and he's right around his career highs in percentage of shots at the rim. His frequency of long 2's is way down but when he shoots them, he is still hitting a pretty good 45.5% of them (second best in his career). He is just barely off his assist rate of last year (half the season without Wall) but his turnovers are down from 2.6 to 2.2.

The only problem, and it's a big one, is his horrific percentage from 3. He had a career average 3P% of .393 going into this season. This year, he is hitting just 32.5% of them. And from what I'm seeing, it's not that he's shooting a lot of high degree of difficulty 3's. He's missing the wide open catch-and-shoots. Indeed, he might even be shooting better on contested 3's than on open 3's.

Overall, Beal is having his 2nd best offensive season, averaging 29.4 points per 100 possession on a TS% of .570. (His best was in 2016-17 when he averaged 32.7 per 100 with a TS% of .604.) However, if Beal was simply shooting his career average from 3-point range, he'd be averaging 31.8 points per 100 on a TS% of .606 (with much better rebounding, assist, and blocks numbers than in 2016-17).

This is interesting. First lets compare this year to last year. Overall, all the non-scoring stuff is almost exactly the same as last year. What's really interesting is that both of the last 2 years all that stuff is a lot better than it was in 2016-17 -- even though the latter was his best year overall.

As to shooting/scoring -- no question about it, he was through the roof in 2016-17. But, it's not just the 3pt shooting that's worse; his FT% has dropped as well. &, not only was his 3pt% over 40% that year -- but he also shot more 3's than in any other year.

As nate points out, he's shooting 2 point shots at a very high %.

So... what we want is the rebounding, assists, blocks etc. of this year's Bradley Beal & last year's Bradley Beal -- but combined w/ the scoring of the 2016-17 Bradley Beal. That would be one of the top half dozen SGs in the league.

[Ruzious]

Beal is having a great season with the exception of his 3P%.

He is currently shooting 56% on 2-pointers, a career best by a lot. He is shooting an unbelievable .766 at the rim (a career high by a country mile), and he's right around his career highs in percentage of shots at the rim. His frequency of long 2's is way down but when he shoots them, he is still hitting a pretty good 45.5% of them (second best in his career). He is just barely off his assist rate of last year (half the season without Wall) but his turnovers are down from 2.6 to 2.2.

The only problem, and it's a big one, is his horrific percentage from 3. He had a career average 3P% of .393 going into this season. This year, he is hitting just 32.5% of them. And from what I'm seeing, it's not that he's shooting a lot of high degree of difficulty 3's. He's missing the wide open catch-and-shoots. Indeed, he might even be shooting better on contested 3's than on open 3's.

Overall, Beal is having his 2nd best offensive season, averaging 29.4 points per 100 possession on a TS% of .570. (His best was in 2016-17 when he averaged 32.7 per 100 with a TS% of .604.) However, if Beal was simply shooting his career average from 3-point range, he'd be averaging 31.8 points per 100 on a TS% of .606 (with much better rebounding, assist, and blocks numbers than in 2016-17).

I think he misses more open 3's than anyone else in the NBA. Just make those open 3's, and he'd really be as good as the perecption of him seems to be. It's that simple.

[nate33]

Over the last 9 games, Beal has averaged 28.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists with a TS% of .594.

[pcbothwel]

Over the last 9 games, Beal has averaged 28.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists with a TS% of .594.

Yup... It appears his ability to score at the rim, rebound, and create is real.
I (and many others) correctly pointed out that Beal was always overrated as a shooter. But if these improvements are real, then being a 37-40% 3pt shooter would be just fine.
- The trump card for me... Work ethic... Im tired of Lazy basketball.
Beal is Mamba/Lebron type meticulous about his craft. Diet, exercise, skill development... No one will ever say Beal didnt get the most of his gifts

[DCZards]

Over the last 9 games, Beal has averaged 28.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists with a TS% of .594.

Yup...the Zards best player about to become a two-time all-star. What's BB's 3 pt% during those 9 games? Seems to me it's been trending up.

[nate33]

Over the last 9 games, Beal has averaged 28.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists with a TS% of .594.

Yup... It appears his ability to score at the rim, rebound, and create is real.
I (and many others) correctly pointed out that Beal was always overrated as a shooter. But if these improvements are real, then being a 37-40% 3pt shooter would be just fine.
- The trump card for me... Work ethic... Im tired of Lazy basketball.
Beal is Mamba/Lebron type meticulous about his craft. Diet, exercise, skill development... No one will ever say Beal didnt get the most of his gifts

Yes. That's the kind of guy you want as a team leader and role model. Dude works so hard every offseason.