Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII

[payitforward]

There's going to be a time when Ben Simmons may be one of the very best players in the league, he isn't right now, and we would be having different conversations about his game if he was asked the shoulder the weight of leading a franchise.

Forgive me, & I mean this respectfully, but this graphic & the data behind it are irrelevant, as you will soon see. Lets compare Ben to other NBA PGs as a scorer this year:

1. his usage is almost exactly average, but
2. he scores @ 1.5 more points per 40 minutes than an average NBA PG, because
3. his TS% is 59.2% -- vs. the 53.7% of an average NBA PG.

Now, you may wish to complain that he doesn't score enough -- more than average but not enough more than average -- I'll counter that objection in a moment, but even if it were valid there's really no point talking about his shooting percentages. They're high overall, not low!

Now lets look at the rest of what he does. I've got per 48 minute numbers in front of me, rather than the more usual per 40 minute numbers. Rather than do the arithmetic to convert them in my head, I'll just use them:

He gets 10.3 defensive rebounds. An average NBA PG gets 4.9.
He gets 3.2 offensive rebounds. An average NBA PG gets 1.
He gets 1.9 steals. Average 1.8
He turns it over 4.9 times, however. An average NBA PG is better: 3.3.

So, in respect of offensive possessions (i.e. chances to score), an average NBA PG adds 4.4 of them. Ben Simmons adds 10.4.

If we feed those 4.4 extra possessions back into an average NBA team's offensive efficiency numbers, we find that per 48 minutes the average guy has added 4.9 points to his team's scoring that don't show up anywhere in his personal scoring statistics. Lets just call it 5 points he adds.

If we do it for Ben Simmons & his 10.4 extra possessions, we find that having Ben on the floor for 48 minutes gets his team an extra 11.93 points that don't show up anywhere in his personal scoring statistics. Lets just call it 12 points he adds.

Just for clarity: the two numbers that determine wins 100%, because they determine points 100%, are TS% & number of scoring chances (i.e. # of FGAs plus 1/2 # of FTAs [for the obvious reason that a FTA can only get you 1 point]).

What I mean by "100%" is that if Team A has more chances to score & a higher TS% than its opponent Team B, then Team A wins the game. Period. It can't lose that game. Conversely, if Team A has fewer chances to score than Team B, along with a lower TS% than Team B, then Team A loses the game: Team cannot win that game. Period.

In terms of "helping" stats rather than scoring stats, in those same 48 minutes, Ben:

gets 11.7 assists vs. an average NBA PG's 7.9
blocks 1.0 shots. Average = .5, and
commits 3.7 fouls vs. an average NBA PG's 3.6

No PG in the league posts numbers -- i.e. has a positive effect on his team's record -- anywhere close to what Ben Simmons does. Period. The 3 closest are Curry, Harden & Irving, & none of them are anywhere near him.

You may not like this. You may feel that your aesthetic sense is more valuable than numbers. But the numbers are real. I'm not making them up. There's no point in disputing numbers that are publicly available.

&, again respectfully, I'd say the numbers are more significant than your aesthetic sense or your opinion. I'm guessing you agree.

Oh, & btw, Ben is shouldering the weight of leading a franchise! He is by far the best player on the Sixers. Better than Embid, better than Butler. It isn't really close.

[youngWizzy]

What about Morris straight up for Sefolosha?

Unsure if Utah would accept but Morris could potentially give them a small ball 5 once he returns from injury.

We end up with

Sato/Randle
Beal/TBJ
Ariza/Sefolosha
Green/Otto/Dekker
Bryant/Mahinmi

I'd do it in a heartbeat. But then, I'd trade Morris for literally ANY expiring contract having lesser value than Morris himself.

It makes some sense from Utah's standpoint in that they don't have any pure PF's (just Favors or Crowder playing out of position). On the other hand, Sefolosha is posting outstanding per minute numbers, better than Morris. (Sefolosha's minute total is very low, it might just be garbage-time stat padding.)

Posted this in the Jazz thread. They seemed to like the deal.

[gambitx777]

I don' think wall is untradeable. I think you are just going to have to unload him for a useless player. Because for as much as wall is over paid, he is still an all star caliber PG.
I think the knicks, for Lee and thomas, might be possible
I still think the heat flat for dragic or johnson might be possible.
I think the suns for anderson is possible.
but its rough.

Much like Mahinmi, no one is untradeable but it's the price your willing to pay to have them moved.

You kept saying Mahinmi was tradeable and he was. But not at the price we'd be willing to pay and definitely for not any of the many trade suggestions you offered where Wizards would even get an asset or expiring back in return.

Same goes with Wall. There's no market, especially when he's out for the year.

Its meaningless to suggest stuff now, maybe when he proves he's healthy and can re-establish some value. New York wants to clear cap room for this offseason so Wall to NY is a non-starter. Maybe if NY misses out on guys, then an opportunity may be there.

Either way, in consideration of Wall's trade kicker, the absolute earliest he can be moved is this summer.

My understanding of the kicker as i have read the ruling to be, if he is traded this year, the kicker will make his money 22 some mill, But now. But next year the kicker will be rendered invalid because it will push his money over the max and will be void, if i am not miss understanding it. but his contract just gets harder to move due to the amount of money that needs matched to move it.
Walls out for the year, all the players i"ve mentioned are not playing. Therefore have no more or less trade value than wall, in terms of playing or not playing. but i could just be stupid.

[nate33]

I don' think wall is untradeable. I think you are just going to have to unload him for a useless player. Because for as much as wall is over paid, he is still an all star caliber PG.
I think the knicks, for Lee and thomas, might be possible
I still think the heat flat for dragic or johnson might be possible.
I think the suns for anderson is possible.
but its rough.

Much like Mahinmi, no one is untradeable but it's the price your willing to pay to have them moved.

You kept saying Mahinmi was tradeable and he was. But not at the price we'd be willing to pay and definitely for not any of the many trade suggestions you offered where Wizards would even get an asset or expiring back in return.

Same goes with Wall. There's no market, especially when he's out for the year.

Its meaningless to suggest stuff now, maybe when he proves he's healthy and can re-establish some value. New York wants to clear cap room for this offseason so Wall to NY is a non-starter. Maybe if NY misses out on guys, then an opportunity may be there.

Either way, in consideration of Wall's trade kicker, the absolute earliest he can be moved is this summer.

My understanding of the kicker as i have read the ruling to be, if he is traded this year, the kicker will make his money 22 some mill, But now. But next year the kicker will be rendered invalid because it will push his money over the max and will be void, if i am not miss understanding it. but his contract just gets harder to move due to the amount of money that needs matched to move it.
Walls out for the year, all the players i"ve mentioned are not playing. Therefore have no more or less trade value than wall, in terms of playing or not playing. but i could just be stupid.

Your understanding is incorrect.

If Wall is traded now, his kicker is $22M in addition to his $18M salary. Not only is that kicker an extremely difficult pill to swallow for the team paying him (who wants to pay that much for a guy who won't play this season), but it also makes the mechanics of such a trade impossible to pull off. From our perspective, we would be sending out $18M, meaning we could only take back $22.5M in salary under the 125% rule. But the other team is receiving $40M and must therefore send out at least $34M in salary to fit under the 125% rule. A third party would have to absorb a whopping $11.5M, or enough additional players would have to be involved in the trade to make those 125% allowances really big.

Basically, Wall can't be traded unless he agrees to waive the kicker.

And then you have the issue of his injury. Why would any team trade for him now without knowing how he'll recover? He's already a huge risk given that his play is unlikely to live up to that salary. Who is going to also take on the significant injury risk?

[payitforward]

...If Wall is traded now, his kicker is $22M in addition to his $18M salary. ...$40M ...

Are you sure, nate? That sounds like a 115% kicker rather than a 15% kicker.

Probably he can't or won't be traded in either case, but it's hard to imagine anything so weirdly punitive being negotiated.

[nate33]

...If Wall is traded now, his kicker is $22M in addition to his $18M salary. ...$40M ...

Are you sure, nate? That sounds like a 115% kicker rather than a 15% kicker.

Probably he can't or won't be traded in either case, but it's hard to imagine anything so weirdly punitive being negotiated.

As I understand it (and nobody has reported the definitive answer on this), the 15% kicker on all future years of the contract get tacked onto this current year (since they can't be tacked on in future years because it would bring his salary above the max). That's why it's so big. So effectively it's 15% of $37M, plus 15% of $40M, plus 15% of $43M, plus 15% of 46M, all tacked on to this year.

[payitforward]

If you're willing to accept that Simmons is a guard that makes sense.

Do I have a choice about that?

The Sixers start Embid (C), Redick (SG), Chandler (PF), & Butler (SF) -- no PGs in that group! -- plus Ben Simmons.

Last night Simmons played 26 minutes. He went 7-10 & 6-7 from the line. He had 8 defensive rebounds & 3 offensive rebounds. He had 9 assists. He had a steal, 3 blocks, 3 TOs & committed 1 foul.

26 minutes!

The guy's a f%$#ing monster!

[Ruzious]

...If Wall is traded now, his kicker is $22M in addition to his $18M salary. ...$40M ...

Are you sure, nate? That sounds like a 115% kicker rather than a 15% kicker.

Probably he can't or won't be traded in either case, but it's hard to imagine anything so weirdly punitive being negotiated.

As I understand it (and nobody has reported the definitive answer on this), the 15% kicker on all future years of the contract get tacked onto this current year (since they can't be tacked on in future years because it would bring his salary above the max). That's why it's so big. So effectively it's 15% of $37M, plus 15% of $40M, plus 15% of $43M, plus 15% of 46M, all tacked on to this year.

Yeah, I read that on Bleacher Report a while back. That is the Mark Mosely of trade kickers. He can wave it, but he'd have no reason to unless they'd trade him to a big market team.

[payitforward]

...If Wall is traded now, his kicker is $22M in addition to his $18M salary. ...$40M ...

Are you sure, nate? That sounds like a 115% kicker rather than a 15% kicker.

Probably he can't or won't be traded in either case, but it's hard to imagine anything so weirdly punitive being negotiated.

As I understand it (and nobody has reported the definitive answer on this), the 15% kicker on all future years of the contract get tacked onto this current year (since they can't be tacked on in future years because it would bring his salary above the max). That's why it's so big. So effectively it's 15% of $37M, plus 15% of $40M, plus 15% of $43M, plus 15% of 46M, all tacked on to this year.

Holy moly!!

But... in truth I find it hard to believe. Why? B/c if it were the case, then no one would negotiate a multi-year, supermax contract with a guy who had "a 15% kicker."

Again... it's probably of no practical relevance in that we are unlikely to trade him this season.

[nate33]

Are you sure, nate? That sounds like a 115% kicker rather than a 15% kicker.

Probably he can't or won't be traded in either case, but it's hard to imagine anything so weirdly punitive being negotiated.

As I understand it (and nobody has reported the definitive answer on this), the 15% kicker on all future years of the contract get tacked onto this current year (since they can't be tacked on in future years because it would bring his salary above the max). That's why it's so big. So effectively it's 15% of $37M, plus 15% of $40M, plus 15% of $43M, plus 15% of 46M, all tacked on to this year.

Holy moly!!

But... in truth I find it hard to believe. Why? B/c if it were the case, then no one would negotiate a multi-year, supermax contract with a guy who had "a 15% kicker."

Again... it's probably of no practical relevance in that we are unlikely to trade him this season.

Effectively, it's a no trade clause.

[Ruzious]

Are you sure, nate? That sounds like a 115% kicker rather than a 15% kicker.

Probably he can't or won't be traded in either case, but it's hard to imagine anything so weirdly punitive being negotiated.

As I understand it (and nobody has reported the definitive answer on this), the 15% kicker on all future years of the contract get tacked onto this current year (since they can't be tacked on in future years because it would bring his salary above the max). That's why it's so big. So effectively it's 15% of $37M, plus 15% of $40M, plus 15% of $43M, plus 15% of 46M, all tacked on to this year.

Holy moly!!

But... in truth I find it hard to believe. Why? B/c if it were the case, then no one would negotiate a multi-year, supermax contract with a guy who had "a 15% kicker."

Again... it's probably of no practical relevance in that we are unlikely to trade him this season.

From BleacherReport.com:

Zach Lowe of ESPN.com broke down the numbers:

"A Wall deal before July 1 is unlikely in part due to complexities surrounding his 15 percent trade kicker—believed to be the first trade kicker that would be spread over the length of a supermax contract. Trade kickers cannot lift a player's salary above his maximum in the year he is traded, meaning Wall's payout could shrink if the Wizards trade him in 2019-20 once he shifts onto his supermax deal—and perhaps close to $0 in that 2019-20 season, sources say.

So, the good thing is that the trade kicker would have close to zero effect if he's traded next season, because he'll already be at the max. But again, I would go under the assumption that he won't be traded anytime.

[dckingsfan]

So, the good thing is that the trade kicker would have close to zero effect if he's traded next season, because he'll already be at the max. But again, I would go under the assumption that he won't be traded anytime.

Which kind of brings us back to and what we should watch is...

For this year, can we move one of our expirings for a lesser salary to get under the cap?

For the future and cap flexibility, should we move one of Beal or Porter?

Love to get in Ted and Ernie's head on this...

[Ruzious]

So, the good thing is that the trade kicker would have close to zero effect if he's traded next season, because he'll already be at the max. But again, I would go under the assumption that he won't be traded anytime.

Which kind of brings us back to and what we should watch is...

For this year, can we move one of our expirings for a lesser salary to get under the cap?

For the future and cap flexibility, should we move one of Beal or Porter?

Love to get in Ted and Ernie's head on this...

I think the conclusion was we're not going to have cap flexibility per se and we won't have cap room, but... we can avoid significant lux tax next season if we are able to sign Sato and Bryant to contracts starting at around 7 mil - as long as we stretch Mahinimi... er Mahinmi's contract. And it's possible that Howard opts out of his contract for next season - which would help make it possible to keep Green. So, the improvement should come from having Wall and Porter healthy, development of Brown and Bryant and possibly Robinson, and adding a 1st round pick... named Zion Williamson.

[nate33]

So, the good thing is that the trade kicker would have close to zero effect if he's traded next season, because he'll already be at the max. But again, I would go under the assumption that he won't be traded anytime.

Which kind of brings us back to and what we should watch is...

For this year, can we move one of our expirings for a lesser salary to get under the cap?

For the future and cap flexibility, should we move one of Beal or Porter?

Love to get in Ted and Ernie's head on this...

I think the conclusion was we're not going to have cap flexibility per se and we won't have cap room, but... we can avoid significant lux tax next season if we are able to sign Sato and Bryant to contracts starting at around 7 mil - as long as we stretch Mahinimi... er Mahinmi's contract. And it's possible that Howard opts out of his contract for next season - which would help make it possible to keep Green. So, the improvement should come from having Wall and Porter healthy, development of Brown and Bryant and possibly Robinson, and adding a 1st round pick... named Zion Williamson.

Exactly.

I'd be content with a lineup of:
Guards: Wall, Beal, Sato
Forwards: Porter, Brown, Green
Centers: Bryant

Add in our first round pick and a few minimum salary vets (or just above minimum salary) and we'll be fine. I think backup center will be easy to find at a vet minimum salary. There will be plenty of guys like Kosta Koufos, Alexis Ajinca and Mike Muscala available for cheap, not to mention seeing if we can get guy like Kenneth Faried who is overlooked because he is not a "modern" PF. I'd also keep Dekker if we can retain him cheaply.

[dckingsfan]

So, the good thing is that the trade kicker would have close to zero effect if he's traded next season, because he'll already be at the max. But again, I would go under the assumption that he won't be traded anytime.

Which kind of brings us back to and what we should watch is...

For this year, can we move one of our expirings for a lesser salary to get under the cap?

For the future and cap flexibility, should we move one of Beal or Porter?

Love to get in Ted and Ernie's head on this...

I think the conclusion was we're not going to have cap flexibility per se and we won't have cap room, but... we can avoid significant lux tax next season if we are able to sign Sato and Bryant to contracts starting at around 7 mil - as long as we stretch Mahinimi... er Mahinmi's contract. And it's possible that Howard opts out of his contract for next season - which would help make it possible to keep Green. So, the improvement should come from having Wall and Porter healthy, development of Brown and Bryant and possibly Robinson, and adding a 1st round pick... named Zion Williamson.

Okay, so our plan hinges around getting the #1 draft pick. Well, at least it is a high probability event

[payitforward]

To get under the tax, we must shed @$5.5m.

Our expiring salaries are Morris, Ariza & Green.

Morris had no trade value before he was injured. We'd have to give an asset along with him in order to get him gone. Either a pick (good god...) or, depending on the trade partner, perhaps Jeff Green?

E.g. I imagine that, as they fight for the playoffs, Utah might like to have Green instead of Crowder (what happened to this guy? His production fell thru the floor!). So, Morris & Green for Crowder might be appealing (esp. if we sent some cash to pay Morris).

But, we'd have Crowder next year, salary we don't want, & the trade only saves us @ $2.8m this year; we still have a tax problem to solve. Moreover, having waived Baker we are at 13 players -- this 2 for 1 deal would leave us having to add two guys.

The more I think about it, the fewer possibilities I see for dumping Kieff. I guess it'll have to be Ariza.

...for Labissiere & McLemore?? Gets us out of the tax....

[youngWizzy]

To get under the tax, we must shed @$5.5m.

Our expiring salaries are Morris, Ariza & Green.

Morris had no trade value before he was injured. We'd have to give an asset along with him in order to get him gone. Either a pick (good god...) or, depending on the trade partner, perhaps Jeff Green?

E.g. I imagine that, as they fight for the playoffs, Utah might like to have Green instead of Crowder (what happened to this guy? His production fell thru the floor!). So, Morris & Green for Crowder might be appealing (esp. if we sent some cash to pay Morris).

But, we'd have Crowder next year, salary we don't want, & the trade only saves us @ $2.8m this year; we still have a tax problem to solve. Moreover, having waived Baker we are at 13 players -- this 2 for 1 deal would leave us having to add two guys.

The more I think about it, the fewer possibilities I see for dumping Kieff. I guess it'll have to be Ariza.

...for Labissiere & McLemore?? Gets us out of the tax....

I posted this in the Utah thread and earlier in this thread. They said they would love to swap Morris for Sefolosha straight up. He gives them a small ball 5 or another floor spacer alongside Gobert. They can absorb the salary difference and we save a few million this year right?

[payitforward]

... in the Utah thread ...They said they would love to swap Morris for Sefolosha straight up. He gives them a small ball 5 or another floor spacer alongside Gobert. They can absorb the salary difference and we save a few million this year right?

I would jump at that. Sefolosha has always been an underrated player (for the usual reason: doesn't score a lot).

He's 34, he's nicked up (out for at least another week), but he'd make us a better team if he could play. & a little better anyway even if he couldn't -- just because Kieff wouldn't be on the floor.

But... their value as players is not important; both are expiring. A straight up trade would get us more than half way to being under the tax limit, & that would be the reason to do it.

[gambitx777]

...If Wall is traded now, his kicker is $22M in addition to his $18M salary. ...$40M ...

Are you sure, nate? That sounds like a 115% kicker rather than a 15% kicker.

Probably he can't or won't be traded in either case, but it's hard to imagine anything so weirdly punitive being negotiated.

As I understand it (and nobody has reported the definitive answer on this), the 15% kicker on all future years of the contract get tacked onto this current year (since they can't be tacked on in future years because it would bring his salary above the max). That's why it's so big. So effectively it's 15% of $37M, plus 15% of $40M, plus 15% of $43M, plus 15% of 46M, all tacked on to this year.

Yes but there was a report that stated that it is by year, so 15% per year, so it would jump to 22 mill this year, then increase 15 mill this year, and which it would be voided due to it exceeding the max amount allowed for future years, other than this one. let me see if i can find that article.

[queridiculo]

So how about this one in the offseason:

WAS: Wall, Mahinmi
DET: Griffin, Jackson

This is basically a trade that addresses fit for both teams.

Detroit gets to pair Wall with Drummond and Washington adds Griffin who's a pretty decent fit in a more positionless approach in Washington.

The move is essentially salary cap neutral and gives both teams a chance to reset their approach with a look towards the future.