Woj: Deni to Portland for 14th pick and Brogdon

[tontoz]

Or maybe the Blazers are starting guys they are hoping to trade.

[badinage]

Sincerely doubt Billups is racist, CCJ. I think it’s just that Portland has a lot of guys who need the ball in their hands — Simon, Deni, Sharpe, Scoot.

[payitforward]

Those highlights were a treat! Way to go Deni!!

[The Consiglieri]

their position.

What do Dejuan Butler, Ty Jerome, DeAndre Hunter, Jay Huff, Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, Christian Braun, and Ochai Ogbaji have in common. All were NCAA Champions.

Chet Holmgren lost in the championship game. He belongs.

I believe in drafted known peak performers. I KNEW it was a mistake when the Wizards dropped Jay Huff.

Last: I go by the raw numbers.

Johni Broome is going to go later than he should he's going to be a Boozer or a Millsap with range. Broome, Eric Dixon, and Kam Jones, along with Derik Queen, are the players I love in this draft.

Dylan Harper will be a superstar, perhaps; but I would rather see the core we have plus ballers added. The guys I listed will hit the NBA like Dalton Knecht, and Cameron Thomas did. Like Jaime Jacquez did. Broome, Dixon, Jones, and old school Derik Queen will all be solid players.

Draft winners. Draft statistically dominant players. Don't keep drafting 18-year-olds who you think have potential.

Same. I look for track record. Players who do the difficult things. The stats that only show up with effort and hard work. Understanding of the game.

Defensive rebounding relative to position. Assists by non ball dominant positions. These are stats that show awareness of the team game and a willingness to sacrifice yourself to make the right play. BBIQ. You know where every player is on both teams.

Free throw percentage. Three point shooting. These only show up in players who practice by themselves. Who love the game enough to get to the gym early. Stay late. Who are mentally strong and not streaky. Who repeat success until it is second nature.

I look for the most important player on a championship team. The team leader and the defensive stalwart. The clutch shooter. The late game hero who demands the ball. Makes the right play under pressure. The competitive rage and earned arrogance of a guy who wants the spotlight and hates to lose.

And I look for a track record of improvement. Do the stats above get better over time, fewer TOs and fouls, higher %’s.

That’s the Memphis draft strategy. They’ll pick a guy of any shape or size who shows these things. Not just a tall guy who lucked into his size and athleticism. Who might shrink when faced with other tall athletes and is no longer dominant. A guy who succeeds despite doubts about size or slow feet or whatever. Zack Edey is a perfect example.

But whatever. I’ve always been better at picking the late draft standouts than the early lotto heroes. There’s no track record to go by. And you can’t catch late bloomers like Giannis or PG13. Or phenoms like Kobe. This FO is swinging for the home run looking for those development standouts. Guys with room to improve.

At least in Bub they picked a guy who checks boxes for me. Rebounds. Assists. Improvement over time in his freshman season. High FT%. Low turnover rates. Which suggests he will equal or pass the guy they jettisoned to make room for him. And hopefully they get other guys with the extra picks who do show both love of the game and willingness to fight to get better.

I'll grant its a weird thing to say, but, nice post, I enjoyed reading about your approach and break down.

[The Consiglieri]

Great game from him last night. Buckets, boards, dimes. Led them to a win.

They need to wake up to the reality — as he goes, so goes their team.

I hope Bub realizes his potential. I really do. I don’t see burst, and that’s big. I think he can get a shot down. He’s tough. He boards. But without that burst … I dunno.

I’d rather have Deni. Much, much rather have Deni.

Yea, Carrington lacks explosiveness and doesn't possess point guard vision. I'm not overly impressed with him. But he does look like 10+ year NBA player. And he has a good head on his shoulders. But I'd take Deni over him 10/10.

In fairness, wasn't the trade:
Deni for Bub, a future first, whatever crap we can flip Brogdon for, and the crappier team and tank commanding side we'd be w/a hyper efficient Deni off the roster?

We basically traded Deni to have a better shot at the 1.01-1.05 in '25, and 2 firsts, and Brogdon's flippable contract.

So it's never just gonna be Deni vs Bub. And if we end up landing the #1 pick this year, or just a flat out stud in that top 5ish zone, anyone sane would be fine w/the trade in retrospect, w/o even considering the future first and Brogdon's contract (I guess equal to a 2nd or 2 2nd's).

It's important to remember that we are sitting at 1.01 pre-lottery in part because Deni's talent isn't screwing up the tank. And then there's the other pieces which have some, but not great value (and like you, I was underwhelmed by the deal at the time).

I think we'll know for sure once the 2nd first rounder convey's, but honestly, how the lottery goes could underline everything (and ftr, it would be particularly bitter if a Deni lead Trailblazers side landed the #1 or #2 or whatever, which is quite possible, just like us winning it, as everyone knows).

[DCZards]

I’ll channel PIF here. “Don’t forget (or discount) those second round picks the Zards also received in the Portland trade. They have value.”

The Zards used a second rd pick to move up in the 2023 draft to take Bilal. Looking more and more like the great use of what turned out to be an important asset.

[FAH1223]

Blazers played well against the Mavs despite Kyrie dropping 46.

Deni and Ayton made big plays

[payitforward]

It’s not about cape-ing for the dude.

And stars — there are levels to this, it’s not as simple as saying: stars vs. role players. Haliburton is a great player — but is he capable of taking a team of two other very good players and some role players to a title? No. Maxey’s really good — but he’s never gonna be one of the top 3 players on a title team.

I think a “role player” who can get 19 and 8 a game and plays very good D and boards up and passes is extremely valuable in this game. And I might prefer a guy like this to a low-rung “star” — I don’t mean Hali here — who needs a lot of shots and/or the ball in his hands all the time and takes off possessions.

Ahhh…no. You always take stars like Haliburton and Maxey over role players like Deni. Love Deni but let’s not get crazy.

Lost track of this thread for a week....

Zards is right (obviously). For that matter, Haliburton is one of the half dozen best players in the game. Period.

[payitforward]

It's getting to be hard to take this discussion seriously.

Deni is being valued based on whatever his most recent excellent game showed.
The 19 year old Bub is being valued based on what he's demonstrated in the first 20-something games of his rookie year.
The future R1 pick is being valued at its lowest potential value -- essentially as negligible.
The 2 future R2 picks are being valued at zero.
Malcolm Brogdon isn't being valued at all.

How about this instead:

1. Bub is playing much better than Deni did as a rookie -- waaaay much better! No comparison.

2. The 2025 R1 pick (which everybody just *knows* is gonna be a low one) will bring us a player of the value of, oh let's say... Jimmy Butler. Maybe only Tobias Harris. Or Rudy Gobert. Or Steven Adams. Nah... make that Giannis Antetekounmpo! Too rich...? Make it Devin Booker. Pascal Siakam. Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White, Josh Hart, Donte Divincenzo, Grayson Allen, Robert Williams, Anfernee Simons, Robert Williams, Gogo Bitadze, Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson, Tyrese Maxey, Payton Pritchard, Desmond Bane...? One of those guys?

3. The 2 R2 picks will yield 2 guys as good as Draymond Green, or Chandler Parsons (but he won't be injured), or Khris Middleton, or Nikola Jokic, or Joe Harris, or Jordan Clarkson, or Norman Powell, or Malcolm Brogdon, or Ivica Zubac, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson, Daniel Gafford, De'Anthony Melton, Jarred Vanderbilt, Nic Claxrton, Cody Martin, Terance Mann...? A couple of those guys

4. Brogdon will bring us a 3d R2 pick -- a 3d guy from the list above?

So, who knows? Maybe the trade brings us:

1. Bub Carrington who turns out to be better than Deni.
2. A guy as good as Pascal Siakam.
3. A guy as good as Jalen Brunson
4. A guy as good as Daniel Gafford
5. A guy as good as the young Malcolm Brogdon.

Would that be ok?

[playoffs]

It's getting to be hard to take this discussion seriously.

Deni is being valued based on whatever his most recent excellent game showed.
The 19 year old Bub is being valued based on what he's demonstrated in the first 20-something games of his rookie year.
The future R1 pick is being valued at its lowest potential value -- essentially as negligible.
The 2 future R2 picks are being valued at zero.
Malcolm Brogdon isn't being valued at all.

How about this instead:

1. Bub is playing much better than Deni did as a rookie -- waaaay much better! No comparison.

2. The 2025 R1 pick (which everybody just *knows* is gonna be a low one) will bring us a player of the value of, oh let's say... Jimmy Butler. Maybe only Tobias Harris. Or Rudy Gobert. Or Steven Adams. Nah... make that Giannis Antetekounmpo! Too rich...? Make it Devin Booker. Pascal Siakam. Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White, Josh Hart, Donte Divincenzo, Grayson Allen, Robert Williams, Anfernee Simons, Robert Williams, Gogo Bitadze, Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson, Tyrese Maxey, Payton Pritchard, Desmond Bane...? One of those guys?

3. The 2 R2 picks will yield 2 guys as good as Draymond Green, or Chandler Parsons (but he won't be injured), or Khris Middleton, or Nikola Jokic, or Joe Harris, or Jordan Clarkson, or Norman Powell, or Malcolm Brogdon, or Ivica Zubac, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson, Daniel Gafford, De'Anthony Melton, Jarred Vanderbilt, Nic Claxrton, Cody Martin, Terance Mann...? A couple of those guys

4. Brogdon will bring us a 3d R2 pick -- a 3d guy from the list above?

So, who knows? Maybe the trade brings us:

1. Bub Carrington who turns out to be better than Deni.
2. A guy as good as Pascal Siakam.
3. A guy as good as Jalen Brunson
4. A guy as good as Daniel Gafford
5. A guy as good as the young Malcolm Brogdon.

Would that be ok?

Now you're going overboard. Let's be a bit more realistic:

1. Bub Carrington who turns out to be a multi-year MVP
2. A guy as good as Kawhi Leonard
3. A guy as good as Giannis
4. A guy as good as Jokic
5. A guy as good as Manu Ginobili

[playoffs]

On a more serious note, I love Haliburton but he is nowhere near being a top-6 player in the NBA. Especially not this season.

[doclinkin]

I hope Bub realizes his potential. I really do. I don’t see burst, and that’s big. I think he can get a shot down. He’s tough. He boards. But without that burst … I dunno.

I’d rather have Deni. Much, much rather have Deni.

Yea, Carrington lacks explosiveness and doesn't possess point guard vision. I'm not overly impressed with him. But he does look like 10+ year NBA player. And he has a good head on his shoulders. But I'd take Deni over him 10/10.

In fairness, wasn't the trade:
Deni for Bub, a future first, whatever crap we can flip Brogdon for, and the crappier team and tank commanding side we'd be w/a hyper efficient Deni off the roster?

We basically traded Deni to have a better shot at the 1.01-1.05 in '25,

And a top 8 pick in 2026. Since otherwise we lose it to New York. We needed to commit to the suck. Draft for development. Not for immediate output.

Deni is good. And if the guys we picked developed swiftly and our top pick in ‘25 is a true franchise player, then having Deni on the squad (forcing Kuz to the bench) with Bilal developing — could indeed endanger that 2026 pick.

That’s what they mean about not fitting our timeline. Landing two franchise players on rookie contracts is a far greater need than Deni growing into his role as a solid starter on a .500 team.

That FRP in distant years is a deal sweetener. An important part of the FO philosophy. But obvs not part of phase 1or2 of any plan.

I’d say for now it really was Deni for Bub. They really liked the kid and did what it took to get him. Everything else was just sauce on the meat.

If we get any return from Brogdon that counts. So far his absence is the thing that contributed most since we have a slightly better win rate now that he’s back. Tho Bub slipped a little, deferring to him.

But I’d agree with PIF that rookie Bub is significantly ahead of rookie Deni, even while 6 months younger.

https://stathead.com/tiny/a88Vh

Better in every significant category but rebounds. And he’s close there too, which is stellar for a guard. What’s most hopeful is the 82% free throw shooting. And 2:1 ast/to ratio on high volume. Both stats are evidence of a mature game.

Precocious play like this suggests Bub will grow quickly. Id worry less about his burst and focus more on his balance and size. And shiftyness. He uses screens well, squares up Midair on his pull up, he can get his shot off and knock it down. He’s started to dunk a bit. As he gets strong he’s going to have a size advantage over many guards. Can he hit the shot when bumped? Can he feint an opponent into a foul then convert the play?

That’s veteran stuff that I’d love if he could learn from Brogdon. For as long as he’s here. Anyway me I disagree with badinage. I think Bub shows upside that compares with and exceeds what Deni grew into. And that’s even while noting that Deni’s defense is unmeasured in this comparison.

Studies show the earlier a player flashes their upside the higher their top end tends to be. Bub surpassing Deni a half year younger than him hints to me that this kid hasn’t even touched a coin to all the boxes on his scratch off ticket.

[doclinkin]

Can’t teach smarts. A ball handling leader can exert more influence on the game even than a switchable forward. Teams can avoid a single defender. But a tall passer that stays under control and makes smart reads can make every player on his team better. Especially if he’s an emotional leader who can keep his teammates fired up and focused.

A strong 2-way PG is almost as influential as a high percentage high volume scorer or a playable defensive center. Bub has a jumpstart on development in that direction.

Bub needs a 3pt shot. Strength. And experience. All of which do reliably develop over time. But smarts are as much a talent as length and burst. If he can out think you he can out play you. Jason Kidd is the model not Starbury or DRose.

[DCZards]

Can’t teach smarts. A ball handling leader can exert more influence on the game even than a switchable forward. Teams can avoid a single defender. But a tall passer that stays under control and makes smart reads can make every player on his team better. Especially if he’s an emotional leader who can keep his teammates fired up and focused.

I’ve been saying the same thing. A lot. While it’s very likely that Bub will not be the Zards best player when the rebuild is complete, I believe he’ll be the team leader…and that his toughness and competitiveness will set the tone for the rest of the team.

[dobrojim]

Doc, re Bub, one other aspect of his development is strength, which will help balance.
Could he end up like a Dumars? Obviously too early to say.

I was confused above when someone said something about a 2025 1stRP as if it were part
of the Deni-Bub trade. My understanding is that's way down the road ie 2029 or so.
Obviously way too early to speculate on that.

It would really suck to give up that 1stRP you guys keep talking about. I need to do my homework
on that. 2026? It's top 8 protected? And then what happens?

[doclinkin]

Doc, re Bub, one other aspect of his development is strength, which will help balance.
Could he end up like a Dumars? Obviously too early to say.

I was confused above when someone said something about a 2025 1stRP as if it were part
of the Deni-Bub trade. My understanding is that's way down the road ie 2029 or so.
Obviously way too early to speculate on that.

It would really suck to give up that 1stRP you guys keep talking about. I need to do my homework
on that. 2026? It's top 8 protected? And then what happens?

Right. 2025 is top 10 protected. No problem this year. 2026 is top 8 protected. Probably still safe. Unless our babies grow up all at once and our pick this year is a phenom. Otherwise it becomes two 2nd round picks to NY. Which we have a bucket full.

I think PIF just got distracted by us saying losing Deni helps the tank in 2025, in addition to the distant FRP we get from Portland. Still. I plan to be a fan of the team at least another 4-5 years so the Portland pick and the 2030 pick swap with PHX are not pointless assets. I personally love the fact that this front office is looking out for future Me. Those picks are going to be fun to speculate about when they matter. Even if I’m not yet scouting 6th graders or whatever.

[doclinkin]

Can’t teach smarts. A ball handling leader can exert more influence on the game even than a switchable forward. Teams can avoid a single defender. But a tall passer that stays under control and makes smart reads can make every player on his team better. Especially if he’s an emotional leader who can keep his teammates fired up and focused.

I’ve been saying the same thing. A lot. While it’s very likely that Bub will not be the Zards best player when the rebuild is complete, I believe he’ll be the team leader…and that his toughness and competitiveness will set the tone for the rest of the team.

Especially given that whatever that leadership quality is, Deni may have the opposite. I dunno. He keeps getting benched for worse players. Having to battle for time that stats and the eye test say he deserves. He makes his teams better but gets no respect for it. He’s beloved by fans but not so much coaches. It’s odd. It can’t be that everyone who’s ever coached him is stupid. Maybe so. But otherwise: Does he talk back in the locker room? Whine about his role? Bad body language? I dunno. Whatever it is you don’t hear players say ‘Deni called us together and said…’ or whatever. Even if his on court effect makes his whole team better.

[nate33]

I don't think it's particularly informative to compare the rookie seasons of Carrington and Deni. They're different players, at different positions, on a team with different goals. Rookie Deni played with Beal and Westbrook for a team with playoff aspirations. Bub is playing on a tanking team willing to start three or four rookies at times.

Also, Deni was a late bloomer who was pretty bad on offense for his first 3 seasons until breaking out big time in his 4th year. Lots of players were better as rookies than Deni but weren't better as 4th year players than Deni.

[dckingsfan]

I don't think it's particularly informative to compare the rookie seasons of Carrington and Deni. They're different players, at different positions, on a team with different goals. Rookie Deni played with Beal and Westbrook for a team with playoff aspirations. Bub is playing on a tanking team willing to start three or four rookies at times.

Also, Deni was a late bloomer who was pretty bad on offense for his first 3 seasons until breaking out big time in his 4th year. Lots of players were better as rookies than Deni but weren't better as 4th year players than Deni.

I also think that it didn't have to be Deni to get Carrington - so there is that as well.

[doclinkin]

I don't think it's particularly informative to compare the rookie seasons of Carrington and Deni. They're different players, at different positions, on a team with different goals. Rookie Deni played with Beal and Westbrook for a team with playoff aspirations. Bub is playing on a tanking team willing to start three or four rookies at times.

Also, Deni was a late bloomer who was pretty bad on offense for his first 3 seasons until breaking out big time in his 4th year. Lots of players were better as rookies than Deni but weren't better as 4th year players than Deni.

It’s a more fair comparison than rookie Bub and 4th/5th year Deni. Which seems to be the substance of the discussion here. I mean duh. Of course a teenager is not as good as a vet in his 2nd contract. You drafted him with the idea he’d get better. Same reason we drafted rookie Deni.

That said it’s not an apples-to-rifles comparison. We’re talking two 19 year old kids playing basketball: Who’s better. There are more similarities than differences.

To say the situation is dissimilar is true but not the end of the conversation. It only means Bub is putting up those numbers at a 5% higher usage rate. And facing 1st team defenses. I’m surprised his efficiency is the same as it was in college. I’d expect worse. Where Deni had already been facing pros in Europe since age 16, Bub is basically leading a team of college sophomores against NBA pros.

I also don’t think we can say Deni was a late bloomer. Most NBA pros break out if they do in year 3. Struggle before then. Still we heard for years that Deni was the youngest in his draft class, or close to it. Even in his 3rd year there were rookies older than him. If it took him a year longer to grow into his game, I think that tracks.

And Bub is even younger. I fully expect there will be players better than rookie Bub that don’t pan out as good as 4th year Bub. Based on his track record so far. The fact that after years of underperforming Deni broke out under the development program that this FO put in place seems a hopeful sign for Bub’s growth.