Post#850 » by rockymac52 » Tue May 21, 2013 7:27 am
I think Ernie and the Wizards are often too weary of past mistakes. On one hand, as many have pointed out, our front office seems to have an issue with admitting our past mistakes, holding onto players for years even though it's clear that they don't belong on an NBA roster. However, on the other hand, i get the impression that our front office is also terrified of repeating mistakes they've made in the past.
Now, I respect them for not wanting to make the same mistake twice (or more). Because after all, if you can't learn from your mistakes, then you're in big trouble. However, I think the Wizards may have taken this line of thought too far.
A couple years ago we had something insane, like 7 players on our roster who were in their rookie or sophomore season. We obviously had a terrible year, and the worst part was that most (arguably all) of those players barely even showed any signs of development. Ted talked about it at the end of that season, about how we had become TOO young. Then we went out and traded for Nene the next year I believe. I think Ted was right in that sense - we were, in fact, too young. When your team's longest tenured player is a 23 year old Andray Blatche, you're going to have serious issues (for more reasons than one).
I think the bigger problem had to do with the specific players we drafted, the existing veterans on the roster (or lack thereof), and the team's player development program (or lack thereof). This reminds me of that Grantland article recently published about how it hurts Wizards fans to see Kawhi Leonard playing so well knowing we could have drafted him, but then also pointing out that even if we drafted Leonard, he probably would have been mismanaged and his development would have suffered greatly. It's hard to defend the Vesely pick, but Singleton was honestly a solid pick, and I think he would have found a decent role on a lot of other teams. But the problem is that our coaching staff and front office was not prepared to have so many rookies, especially ones so raw and in desperate need of developmental coaching.
So, has this changed? Well, in theory, we could pick the right rookies this year and that takes care of that prong, but that's too speculative and hard to determine at this point. However, we are a lot better off because of the existing veterans and team the rookies will be introduced to. There is already a sense of professionalism and hard work in our locker room now, something that wasn't there 2-3 years ago, and it's contagious. A rookie with, say, an average work ethic, could come into the league and join the 2010 Wizards and his career would be ruined by their lack of professionalism. But that same rookie could come into this current Wizards locker room, and be surrounded by smart, dedicated veterans from day one, and go on to succeed because of it.
As far as the coaching staff's ability to develop players now compared to 2-3 years ago, well, it's hard to say. I'd like to believe it's better, but I don't really have any reason to believe that. Yeah, Wall took a huge step forward this year (eventually). Yeah, the team as a whole is well coached and headed in the right direction (I like Witt - really!). But how would this group handle a raw prospect who had a ton of potential, but a ton to still learn? I'm not sure. I'm not optimistic, to be honest. And that's actually especially true if we draft a big man, unless that big man turns out to be very NBA-ready on his own, or unless we trade several of "Ernie's Kids". Even though the likes of Vesely, Singleton, Seraphin, and Booker might not be very good (exception for Booker, but injury issues), they're still on the roster, and they're going to command a certain amount of minutes. I think we're prepared to put Vesely on the end of the bench and get plenty of DNP-CDs, but if Okafor and Nene are the starters, then there's a group of those 4 backing them up, that's already a fairly crowded front court, even without adding in the 8th pick or so. I think if we draft someone at 8, they immediately become the priority over those 4 current backups, but what if we get somebody like Adams, who is as raw as they come? (Okay, I sincerely hope we wouldn't reach for Adams at 8, but just pretend we do or we trade down a few spots or something). Do we immediately make Adams our 1st big man off the bench, getting something like 20-25 MPG? I don't think he's ready for that. We don't want to rush someone into a situation when they're not ready for it (again). So we either push him further down the bench, forcing him to earn his minutes over those 4 backups over time, or maybe we finally utilize the D-League, but I think that's a dangerous situation. That's how players never develop, at least for some teams, the Wizards included. We stash him at the end of the bench, and maybe one asst. coach in particular is working with him constantly (although that's not even a guarantee with this organization), but he's not getting any playing time/experience. Or he's in the D-League where he isn't even being coached by our own guys, and since we don't have a direct D-League affiliate, we have no say over who coaches him, so it's very unlikely we'd do that at this point. So then the Wizards coaching staff is more preoccupied with the current team as a whole, trying to win now, and not focusing on developing one player (this is probably the right thing for the coaching staff to do, to be fair). And then, before you know it, 3-4 years have passed, and Adams' rookie deal is coming to an end, and whaddyaknow, he's still a backup big man at the end of the bench, and he never got better. It's scary. This organization is not prepared for a project.
But back to where I initially started before getting sidetracked... this current team can handle 3 rookies much better than we could 2-3 years ago. Not to mention that since our entire team is so much better now, that not all 3 rookies would be forced into a starting and big minutes role from the get-go. In fact, maybe none of them get more than 20 MPG all season. There's less pressure on them.
I think the Wizards/Ernie are too scared of becoming too young again, but I think their logic is flawed. Especially with 2nd round picks, sure, the vast majority of them never pan out, but plenty of them do, and some of them turn into stars. It would be foolish not to utilize the picks. If we're talking about trading 37 and 54 for something in the 26-32 range, then sure, I'm all for consolidation. But if we can't find a suitable trade partner (which might be the case, as it seems that Ernie is really taking a wait and see approach in this regard), then I don't want to see us sell the 54th pick (or the 37th, that'd be even worse). I'm okay with going with the draft and stash for one of those picks, probably the 54th, but I don't think it's realistically the best move, it's just a convenient way to make a pick with a slight glimmer of upside and no repercussions because there's no immediate salary paid to that player. I'd rather see us take a chance on an American player, let him play in Summer League and in Training Camp, and if he's good enough to be one of the top 15 options for our team at that point, then awesome, we just got another player for cheeeeap. If he's no good, or he's just not ready, then there's really no loss. Send him tot he D-League or send him overseas, and keep him draft rights. Then he's in the same boat as the international draft and stash option.
It feels like the Wizards/Ernie got it in their heads that 3 rookies is too many for an NBA team that wants to be competitive, and as a result, we aren't even willing to give it a shot. It's frustrating to say the least. At least pretend that we're keeping an open mind about the possibility, even if that's not the route we prefer taking.
