Deni Avdija

[dckingsfan]

As to his offense. He doesn't need to shoot to have a positive effect on this end of the court. We saw that with the last shot of the Bucks game. We have catch and shoot players all over the court but they need that middleman to swing the ball to the right guy and keep the ball moving. We need a guy who moves to give a passing option when our playmakers are doubled. A facilitator who is a plus defender is a useful player. I expect his offense will improve, especially as the scouting reports say to leave him alone, he will get open shots. If he can knock them down then his confidence will follow. Until then he just needs to keep doing what he's doing.

You can't understate this on the offensive side of the ledger. Once he begins hitting open shots his playmaking becomes a very large +.

[prime1time]

As to his offense. He doesn't need to shoot to have a positive effect on this end of the court. We saw that with the last shot of the Bucks game. We have catch and shoot players all over the court but they need that middleman to swing the ball to the right guy and keep the ball moving. We need a guy who moves to give a passing option when our playmakers are doubled. A facilitator who is a plus defender is a useful player. I expect his offense will improve, especially as the scouting reports say to leave him alone, he will get open shots. If he can knock them down then his confidence will follow. Until then he just needs to keep doing what he's doing.

You can't understate this on the offensive side of the ledger. Once he begins hitting open shots his playmaking becomes a very large +.

What are you basing this off of? Avdija is not a good shooter is struggling, he's a bad shooter who's never had success in any professional setting shoooting the ball.
2018/2019 - Advija was 42/82 from the ft line 51.2%
2019/2020 - Avdija was 67/114 from the ft line 58%
2020/2021 - Avdija was 29/45 64% from the ft line
2021/2022 - Avdija was 12/22 54.5%

The optimism on this board regarding Avdija's shooting is laughable. I challenge someone to find a player who became a good shooter that a history of struggling shooting the ball as much as Avdija has.

I expect his offense will improve, especially as the scouting reports say to leave him alone, he will get open shots

Teams have been leaving already leaving Advija open and he has been missing them. No one is running this kind of shooter off the 3-point line. Why are people just throwing out rational thinking when it comes to Avdija? Over 263 ft's at 57%. At what point is it fair to say that Avdija will likely never develop a jumpshot.

We have catch and shoot players all over the court but they need that middleman to swing the ball to the right guy and keep the ball moving. We need a guy who moves to give a passing option when our playmakers are doubled. A facilitator who is a plus defender is a useful player.

And here in lies the rub. As good as Advija may be and as much as Advija can contribute by being a facilitator and an above-average defender, we would be better if he could shoot. In light of Advija's struggles shooting, I think it's fair to say that we are still looking for a long term solution at SF. And for people who say he's only 20, we moved on from Troy Brown Jr at 21 and Brown Jr is a career 75% FT shooter. 18% points higher than Avdija...

[DCZards]

Blake Griffin shot 64%, 52% & 66% from the FT line his first three seasons. Since then he has shot around 75% from the FT line.

(I’m sure there are other examples of players who improved their FT shooting significantly).

prime1time, you seem to forget (or overlook) that Deni is just 20 years old with less than 1500 mins. of NBA experience. I don’t see any reason whatsoever why he can’t improve his FT shooting and jump shooting.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

In addition to Blake Griffin, there's another player.

Started out a 22 year old rookie who shot 52%FT with Houston.

He improved as a Clippers teammate of Blake Griffin. 65%

Improved a bit more as a Laker. 70.7%

Now he's a Wizard, making the most FTs off the bench.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/harremo01.html

Deni can become a proficient shooter.

[doclinkin]

I expect his offense will improve, especially as the scouting reports say to leave him alone, he will get open shots

Teams have been leaving already leaving Advija open and he has been missing them. No one is running this kind of shooter off the 3-point line. Why are people just throwing out rational thinking when it comes to Avdija? Over 263 ft's at 57%. At what point is it fair to say that Avdija will likely never develop a jumpshot.

Or you can look at the stats before you are loud wrong and disagreeable:

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630166/shots-dash/

So far this year 25.5% of the time Deni takes a wide open shot from 3. His percentage on those 3pt shots is 41.7%
On catch and shoot 3's (0 dribbles) he hits 37% of his 3pt shots.

On 25.5% of his shots the nearest defender is 4-6 ft away. On those shots he is hitting 60% on 2pt shots. Lousy from 3.
40.4% of his shots are with a defender within 2-4 ft. On those shots he is hitting 58.8% on 2pt shots. Terrible from 3.

Deni is rushing things. A young player without confidence in his shot. Given time to line it up he can hit a wide open shot. As the game slows down for him it is fair to expect he will rush less. The stats suggest he simply can't hit a shot off of motion. 2 dribbles or less and he is okay. The thing is, he likes handling the ball, and thinks he is better than he is. When he realizes that is not his role, he will swing the ball to a ballhandling shot creator and help in other ways. He has limited reps though, an injury shortened first year, with a poorly defined role, bad coaching, and being frozen out by a ball dominant HOFer. Not ideal learning conditions to develop confidence.

I personally don't know what the rush is to rule out a guy who is 20 years old and clearly adjusting pretty quickly to new concepts, new coaching, new teammates. Yeah he has been missing his shots when he is in motion. Dribble drive is not his game in the NBA. Let the coaches work with him on it and maximize what he does do well (Wes' forte as an assistant, now with an analytics staff to back him up) and give him more than I dunno, less than a full season's worth of games before you write him off.

I challenge someone to find a player who became a good shooter that a history of struggling shooting the ball as much as Avdija has.

Challenge accepted, and a fine role model for both Deni and Rui:

Watch on YouTube

The prototypical 3&D player Bruce Bowen was notorious for being a solid and reliable 3PT shooter and a miserable FT shooter:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bowenbr01.html

[prime1time]

I expect his offense will improve, especially as the scouting reports say to leave him alone, he will get open shots

Teams have been leaving already leaving Advija open and he has been missing them. No one is running this kind of shooter off the 3-point line. Why are people just throwing out rational thinking when it comes to Avdija? Over 263 ft's at 57%. At what point is it fair to say that Avdija will likely never develop a jumpshot.

Or you can look at the stats before you are loud wrong and disagreeable:

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630166/shots-dash/

So far this year 25.5% of the time Deni takes a wide open shot from 3. His percentage on those 3pt shots is 41.7%
On catch and shoot 3's (0 dribbles) he hits 37% of his 3pt shots.

On 25.5% of his shots the nearest defender is 4-6 ft away. On those shots he is hitting 60% on 2pt shots. Lousy from 3.
40.4% of his shots are with a defender within 2-4 ft. On those shots he is hitting 58.8% on 2pt shots. Terrible from 3.

Deni is rushing things. A young player without confidence in his shot. Given time to line it up he can hit a wide open shot. As the game slows down for him it is fair to expect he will rush less. The stats suggest he simply can't hit a shot off of motion. 2 dribbles or less and he is okay. The thing is, he likes handling the ball, and thinks he is better than he is. When he realizes that is not his role, he will swing the ball to a ballhandling shot creator and help in other ways. He has limited reps though, an injury shortened first year, with a poorly defined role, bad coaching, and being frozen out by a ball dominant HOFer. Not ideal learning conditions to develop confidence.

I personally don't know what the rush is to rule out a guy who is 20 years old and clearly adjusting pretty quickly to new concepts, new coaching, new teammates. Yeah he has been missing his shots when he is in motion. Dribble drive is not his game in the NBA. Let the coaches work with him on it and maximize what he does do well (Wes' forte as an assistant, now with an analytics staff to back him up) and give him more than I dunno, less than a full season's worth of games before you write him off.

I challenge someone to find a player who became a good shooter that a history of struggling shooting the ball as much as Avdija has.

Challenge accepted, and a fine role model for both Deni and Rui:

Watch on YouTube

The prototypical 3&D player Bruce Bowen was notorious for being a solid and reliable 3PT shooter and a miserable FT shooter:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bowenbr01.html

I prefer to let the facts speak for themselves. Bruce Bowen is a great example. I didn't know he was that bad of a ft shooter. He shows that you can be a good 3-point shooter and a bad ft shooter. But, it's almost irrelevant. My point wasn't that it can't be done, but that building a team to where you project a player to be an exception rather than the rule is kind of bizarre. On average, terrible ft shooters are terrible 3-point shooters.

Avdija, has made 41% of his 3's when he's wide open. That's applaudable, but let's dig deeper I'll have to push back on it.
I remember game 7 Rockets vs. Warriors.
Rockets missed 27 straight 3's in a row.

Read on Twitter

Yet in the regular season they had players who were actually solid to good 3-point shooters. The issue, however, is that in the playoffs the intensity turns up. Shots that were wide open in the regular season are now contested, teams, pressure ball-handlers more and offensive efficiency drops. Avdija's the perfect example of why teams need to build to win in the playoffs.

Is there really any doubt what will happen to Avdija in a playoff game? Honestly speaking, Avdija is 2 to 3 years away from being able to contribute offensively in a playoff game. Right now Avdija is a self-check. Having him on the floor in the playoffs would allow teams to put their most lethal shooter/scorer who's a bad defender on him because they know he has no offensive game to speak of. Most wings can at least contribute a little offensively during the regular season. Avdija cannot. Needless to say that his offensive struggles will continue into the playoffs.

I will gladly eat crow and sing Avdija's praises if he plays well in the playoffs. But as of now, when I watch games and analyze his stats I simply don't see how that can be the case. So while I am glad to be corrected on Bruce Bowen, I will repeat my statement that we need a long-term answer at SF. Barring substantial improvement Avdija won't be the answer.

The love affair that our board has for Avdija is just fascinating to me. He was the 9th pick in the draft. No one drafts a high energy defensive player at #9. Yet our board is overjoyed. Offensively speaking Avdija is so raw that he should have been picked closer to the end of the 1st round or the 2nd round. No one saw his good defense coming and it is a major benefit to him because without he'd be a bust.

[prime1time]

Blake Griffin shot 64%, 52% & 66% from the FT line his first three seasons. Since then he has shot around 75% from the FT line.

(I’m sure there are other examples of players who improved their FT shooting significantly).

prime1time, you seem to forget (or overlook) that Deni is just 20 years old with less than 1500 mins. of NBA experience. I don’t see any reason whatsoever why he can’t improve his FT shooting and jump shooting.

I haven't forgotten Deni's age. I just think that the assumption that our player will be one of the guys that significantly improves his shooting is bizarre. Most players don't improve their shooting that much. For the one's who do, how many of them are able to integrate into a 3-level offensive attack where they can shoot 3's, attack off the dribble and create for others?

The reality is that Avdija was a lottery pick and he is nowhere close to we need him to be. As things stand, Avdija will be on jump shot watch for the next 2 or 3 years. Assuming that he can significantly improve both his ft shooting and his 3-point shooting, then we can move onto the next step which is to improve his ability to attack his defenders. Other than a straight line right-hand drive right-hand finish and a clumsy post-offensive I have seen no ability of Avdija to attack. In playoff Basketball when teams take away open 3's, you need to be able to attack off the dribble. Avdija can't do that (or at least he has not shown the ability to do this since I have watched him).

Avdija has shown the ability to create for others and it was one of his redeeming qualities. But in my opinion, the Wizards fixated way too much on Avdija's playmaking and not enough on his limitations which are debilitating. I doubt that Avdija's ball-handling ever gets good enough to where he is comfortable attacking his defender in one-on-one situations. As bad as his shooting is, the argument can be made that Avdija's biggest problem is his ball-handling. As the previous poster pointed out, Avdija can make wide-open 3's at a 41.7% clip. If when teams closed out hard Avdija could attack their close-out and then playmaker off of that I would be optimistic. But he has not shown the ability to do that consistently.

Yes, Avdija is 20 but he was also a lottery pick. Offensively, I expect and I think the Wizards organization would have hoped that there would be many more building blocks when it comes to Avdija's offense. With regards to Avdija's two great struggles - shooting and ball-handling - we are building from scratch. When you add in the fact that no one saw Avdija's good defense coming, you have the makings of what could have been a disastrous pick.

After watching his Maccabi Tel Aviv games and his Wizards games, I have concluded that in a best-case scenario Avdija is 2 to 3 years away from contributing offensively in the playoffs. But even that is probably over-optimistic given the fact that so far his offense has seemed to regress. And while I love his improved defense, I fear what lies down the road with him. To the degree that Avdija is compensating for his offensive struggles with a newfound focus on defense, it makes me wonder how intransigent and stubborn his offensive struggles are. Good offensive players, when they struggle offensively, simply improve their offensive play. Bad offensive players, when they struggle offensively lose confidence (and aggressiveness), and focus on contributing in other ways.

[Ruzious]

Karl Malone's a classic example of a poor shooter becoming a good shooter. His rookie year, he made 48.1% of his FT's, 2nd year - 59.8%, 3rd year - 70%, 4th year - 76.6%. And he developed a very good jump shot - after being strictly an interior scorer.

[nate33]

I think prime1time makes some good points that cannot be ignored.

Basically, all of the theoretical playmaking talent that Avdija may have cannot be unlocked until he first learns to shoot. And it's no sure thing that he will learn to shoot.

Doc's idea that Avdija can get by as a middleman connector is a fantasy. Yeah, it could work in the regular season against backups who don't scout him, but in a game that matters, teams will put their center on Avdija, ignore him, and have their center play free safety. Either that, or they will park their worst defender on him.

That's not to say there isn't a blueprint for success for Avdija. I could see him in a poor man's Draymond Green role if he bulked up a bit more and played PF full time. Get him the ball in the high post and have him set screens and make passes. Though even then, he doesn't have the ability to play center, and Draymond is really only a plus offensively when he plays the 5 and can be surrounded by 4 shooters. Perhaps if he plays alongside Bryant it could be interesting.

But if he is to play the 3, he has to learn to shoot. There's no way around it.

[Dolevi]

As to his offense. He doesn't need to shoot to have a positive effect on this end of the court. We saw that with the last shot of the Bucks game. We have catch and shoot players all over the court but they need that middleman to swing the ball to the right guy and keep the ball moving. We need a guy who moves to give a passing option when our playmakers are doubled. A facilitator who is a plus defender is a useful player. I expect his offense will improve, especially as the scouting reports say to leave him alone, he will get open shots. If he can knock them down then his confidence will follow. Until then he just needs to keep doing what he's doing.

You can't understate this on the offensive side of the ledger. Once he begins hitting open shots his playmaking becomes a very large +.

What are you basing this off of? Avdija is not a good shooter is struggling, he's a bad shooter who's never had success in any professional setting shoooting the ball.
2018/2019 - Advija was 42/82 from the ft line 51.2%
2019/2020 - Avdija was 67/114 from the ft line 58%
2020/2021 - Avdija was 29/45 64% from the ft line
2021/2022 - Avdija was 12/22 54.5%

The optimism on this board regarding Avdija's shooting is laughable. I challenge someone to find a player who became a good shooter that a history of struggling shooting the ball as much as Avdija has.

I expect his offense will improve, especially as the scouting reports say to leave him alone, he will get open shots

Teams have been leaving already leaving Advija open and he has been missing them. No one is running this kind of shooter off the 3-point line. Why are people just throwing out rational thinking when it comes to Avdija? Over 263 ft's at 57%. At what point is it fair to say that Avdija will likely never develop a jumpshot.

We have catch and shoot players all over the court but they need that middleman to swing the ball to the right guy and keep the ball moving. We need a guy who moves to give a passing option when our playmakers are doubled. A facilitator who is a plus defender is a useful player.

And here in lies the rub. As good as Advija may be and as much as Advija can contribute by being a facilitator and an above-average defender, we would be better if he could shoot. In light of Advija's struggles shooting, I think it's fair to say that we are still looking for a long term solution at SF. And for people who say he's only 20, we moved on from Troy Brown Jr at 21 and Brown Jr is a career 75% FT shooter. 18% points higher than Avdija...

You can't compare TBJ to Deni no way. They are 2 completely different players. TBJ is more like a scorer, and a better shooter. In the other hand Avdija has his potential being a Big playmaker with his passing skills and BBIQ. And he's a good defender and rebounder. Despite Deni's bad percentages from the FT line compared to TBJ, he has his advantages and potential being a better player than TBJ overall, even if he won't get that better with his shooting problem (and i think he does can improve, as others above me here said). Basketball isn't just shooting, it's a lot more than that. Btw, i would have kept TBJ in the team, didn't understand the decision give up on him.

[nate33]

You can't compare TBJ to Deni no way. They are 2 completely different players. TBJ is more like a scorer, and a better shooter. In the other hand Avdija has his potential being a Big playmaker with his passing skills and BBIQ. And he's a good defender and rebounder. Despite Deni's bad percentages from the FT line compared to TBJ, he has his advantages and potential being a better player than TBJ overall, even if he won't get that better with his shooting problem (and i think he does can improve, as others above me here said). Basketball isn't just shooting, it's a lot more than that. Btw, i would have kept TBJ in the team, didn't understand the decision give up on him.

Interestingly, Troy Brown in Chicago is looking more or less like the same Troy Brown we had here. He just isn't quite good enough as a playmaker to let him run things, so they are using him strictly as a 3&D guy just like we tried to.

Troy is shooting 36% from 3 and is averaging a fairly mundane 12.9 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1 assist per 36 with a -3.6 on/off differential in 10 minutes a game. He's a mediocre role player - good enough to play in this league, but so far he is "just a guy".

Trading him for Gafford was clearly a win for us.

[Dolevi]

You can't compare TBJ to Deni no way. They are 2 completely different players. TBJ is more like a scorer, and a better shooter. In the other hand Avdija has his potential being a Big playmaker with his passing skills and BBIQ. And he's a good defender and rebounder. Despite Deni's bad percentages from the FT line compared to TBJ, he has his advantages and potential being a better player than TBJ overall, even if he won't get that better with his shooting problem (and i think he does can improve, as others above me here said). Basketball isn't just shooting, it's a lot more than that. Btw, i would have kept TBJ in the team, didn't understand the decision give up on him.

Interestingly, Troy Brown in Chicago is looking more or less like the same Troy Brown we had here. He just isn't quite good enough as a playmaker to let him run things, so they are using him strictly as a 3&D guy just like we tried to.

Troy is shooting 36% from 3 and is averaging a fairly mundane 12.9 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1 assist per 36 with a -3.6 on/off differential in 10 minutes a game. He's a mediocre role player - good enough to play in this league, but so far he is "just a guy".

Trading him for Gafford was clearly a win for us.

Yes, cause we got Gafford, but if i could have kept him in the team, i would have done it and trade other players. You are right, he is more like a 3&D guy.

[arusinov]

What are you basing this off of? Avdija is not a good shooter is struggling, he's a bad shooter who's never had success in any professional setting shoooting the ball.
2018/2019 - Advija was 42/82 from the ft line 51.2%
2019/2020 - Avdija was 67/114 from the ft line 58%
2020/2021 - Avdija was 29/45 64% from the ft line
2021/2022 - Avdija was 12/22 54.5%

The optimism on this board regarding Avdija's shooting is laughable. I challenge someone to find a player who became a good shooter that a history of struggling shooting the ball as much as Avdija has.

Hmm...

Here's couple of Europeans guys. Deni Avdija is frequently compared to both - but people always say that they (unlike Deni) "can/could shot".

* Hedo Türkoğlu was quite good shooter in NBA with 38.4% 3P, 78.4% FT. Hedo shot 63% FT and just above 30% 3P in two seasons he was in Efes Pilsen rotation in Euroleague. And he was older than Deni.

* Whatever Dario Saric's problems in NBA are - it's not FT%. Dario has good 83.8% FT average (and ok-ish 35.7% 3P). In more or less same age as Deni Maccabi years he shot 154/244 - 63.1% FT and 36/133 - 27.1% 3P (3 years later Saric shot 40.7% 3P and 85.9% 3P in Euroleague and quite strong Turkish league)

So while they shot a little better than Deni at those times they still were very bad FT shooters... until they stopped to be such.

-------------------

Is this some special rare case?

Actually there're a lot of players which are good or at least average shooters in NBA, but had very bad FT% as 18 and 19 years old:

* Kent Bazemore has not bad averages 72.4% FT, 35.6% 3P in NBA, in college it was 58.1% FT, moreover both Fr. and So. years he succeeded in less than 50% FT

* Marcus Morris in NBA: 76.3% FT, 37.8% 3P, he shot 61.1% his Fr. year (and he was already 19), 66.2% FT college average through 3 years

* TJ Warren NBA averages are 78.0% FT, 35.7% 3P, in college Fr year he shot 54.2% FT (but improved to 69.0% FT next year)

* Kyle Kuzma is not great, not horrible shooter at 71.9% FT, 33.9% 3P. In college - Fr. season (19 years old) - 55.6% FT% , So. season 61.1%

* Trevor Ariza is another case of not great, not horrible - 73.2% FT, 35.2% 3P. He shot precisely 50% in college

* Aaron Gordon is not good shooter at 69.4% FT, 32.0% 3P. But then - in college it was... 42.2% FT.

* Even Blake Griffin which in college shot 59% FT and made just 3 (of 11 attempts) 3P developed somewhat passible 3P shot at ~33.2% and averages 69.5% FT

If we think a bit more:

Al Harford, Paul Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge, Karl Malone and many others were very poor FT shooters in their college years and improved a lot in NBA...

-------

Also FT% is not always strongly related to 3P shooting: Omri Casspi was not bad NBA 3p shooter with 36.8% average , his career FT% was unimpressive 67.8%. Moreover in 2015-16 Omri was literally one of best 3pt shooters in the league. He achieved 40.9% 3p% on 4.0 3PA per game . Same year he shot 64.8% FT%

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But the most important part is not Deni's shooting. For now his offense looks so bad because his finishing is bad this season.
But in his good I-BSL season Deni scored his ~13 ppg on very good 61.3 TS%, his FT% was still 58.1%... his 2P% was 67.1% . And while I-BSL is not a great league it's still better than any NCAA conference. Deni was very very effective and consistent finisher that year and he certainly didn't miss ton open lay-ups.

While when and if at all Deni will improve shooting is something which is not known, I don't see any reason why he will not shake off residue of the injury and improve scoring at rim. Even in his underwhelming rookie season he was much better in this element.
He's big, very quick for his size and while it's hard to believe this month he has good touch around basket - if he continue to get some opportunities there's absolutely no reason why he will not be better than average finisher (yes... even in NBA) in couple of months

If this happens - he can be effective ~10 ppg scorer even if his 3P shot stays at ~30%

[arusinov]

...concerning lower picks like Bey and Bane having success now... As Israeli fan I can remind you that their rookie year Omri Casspi had better stats than both DeRozan and Harden (and Jonny Flynn had better stats than all 3 and was out of the league in 3 years)

Right about Casspi. Wrong about Jonny Flynn, who was absolutely horrible as a rookie -- taken #6. & if you're trying to argue that higher picks usually wind up better, that's just plain wrong. The guy taken #46 was better than at least 9 of the top 15 picks. For that matter, so were the guys taken #39, 42, 44 & 55.

As far as last year's draft, Bey & Bane aren't even the best examples: take a look at Kenyon Martin Jr. In fact, the best rookies last year were Haliburton (12), Tillman (35), Ball (3), Martin (52), Jae Sean Tate (undrafted in '18), Saben Lee (38), Facundo Campazzo (undrafted in 2013) & Peyton Pritchard (26). Not necessarily how it'll turn out long term, but it does tell a person something.

Hm... Jonny Flynn averaged 13.5 pts, 4.4 ast his rookie year. It went totally south second year (down to 5.3 / 3.4 ) He always was horrible defender though... but who looks at rookie's advanced defensive stats?

I agree that Flynn wasn't very logical example as he was (too) high draft selection.

Anyway what I wanted to say: rookie year good or bad - is not always great indication for the future career (especially for lower selections but not only)

[Ruzious]

You can't compare TBJ to Deni no way. They are 2 completely different players. TBJ is more like a scorer, and a better shooter. In the other hand Avdija has his potential being a Big playmaker with his passing skills and BBIQ. And he's a good defender and rebounder. Despite Deni's bad percentages from the FT line compared to TBJ, he has his advantages and potential being a better player than TBJ overall, even if he won't get that better with his shooting problem (and i think he does can improve, as others above me here said). Basketball isn't just shooting, it's a lot more than that. Btw, i would have kept TBJ in the team, didn't understand the decision give up on him.

Interestingly, Troy Brown in Chicago is looking more or less like the same Troy Brown we had here. He just isn't quite good enough as a playmaker to let him run things, so they are using him strictly as a 3&D guy just like we tried to.

Troy is shooting 36% from 3 and is averaging a fairly mundane 12.9 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1 assist per 36 with a -3.6 on/off differential in 10 minutes a game. He's a mediocre role player - good enough to play in this league, but so far he is "just a guy".

Trading him for Gafford was clearly a win for us.

Yes, cause we got Gafford, but if i could have kept him in the team, i would have done it and trade other players. You are right, he is more like a 3&D guy.

TBJ really isn't a 3&D guy - since he's just an ok 3 point shooter and a poor defender. At this point, he really hasn't shown he belongs in any role - though I think he has the potential to be a fine player.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

As to his offense. He doesn't need to shoot to have a positive effect on this end of the court. We saw that with the last shot of the Bucks game. We have catch and shoot players all over the court but they need that middleman to swing the ball to the right guy and keep the ball moving. We need a guy who moves to give a passing option when our playmakers are doubled. A facilitator who is a plus defender is a useful player. I expect his offense will improve, especially as the scouting reports say to leave him alone, he will get open shots. If he can knock them down then his confidence will follow. Until then he just needs to keep doing what he's doing.

You can't understate this on the offensive side of the ledger. Once he begins hitting open shots his playmaking becomes a very large +.

What are you basing this off of? Avdija is not a good shooter is struggling, he's a bad shooter who's never had success in any professional setting shoooting the ball.
2018/2019 - Advija was 42/82 from the ft line 51.2%
2019/2020 - Avdija was 67/114 from the ft line 58%
2020/2021 - Avdija was 29/45 64% from the ft line
2021/2022 - Avdija was 12/22 54.5%

The optimism on this board regarding Avdija's shooting is laughable. I challenge someone to find a player who became a good shooter that a history of struggling shooting the ball as much as Avdija has.

I expect his offense will improve, especially as the scouting reports say to leave him alone, he will get open shots

Teams have been leaving already leaving Advija open and he has been missing them. No one is running this kind of shooter off the 3-point line. Why are people just throwing out rational thinking when it comes to Avdija? Over 263 ft's at 57%. At what point is it fair to say that Avdija will likely never develop a jumpshot.

We have catch and shoot players all over the court but they need that middleman to swing the ball to the right guy and keep the ball moving. We need a guy who moves to give a passing option when our playmakers are doubled. A facilitator who is a plus defender is a useful player.

And here in lies the rub. As good as Advija may be and as much as Advija can contribute by being a facilitator and an above-average defender, we would be better if he could shoot. In light of Advija's struggles shooting, I think it's fair to say that we are still looking for a long term solution at SF. And for people who say he's only 20, we moved on from Troy Brown Jr at 21 and Brown Jr is a career 75% FT shooter. 18% points higher than Avdija...

Pretty weak argument if your own data point has shown career progression (this season is way to small of a sample to add on to that).

[doclinkin]

Basically, all of the theoretical playmaking talent that Avdija may have cannot be unlocked until he first learns to shoot. And it's no sure thing that he will learn to shoot.

Doc's idea that Avdija can get by as a middleman connector is a fantasy. Yeah, it could work in the regular season against backups who don't scout him, but in a game that matters, teams will put their center on Avdija, ignore him, and have their center play free safety. Either that, or they will park their worst defender on him.

That's not to say there isn't a blueprint for success for Avdija. I could see him in a poor man's Draymond Green role if he bulked up a bit more and played PF full time. Get him the ball in the high post and have him set screens and make passes. Though even then, he doesn't have the ability to play center, and Draymond is really only a plus offensively when he plays the 5 and can be surrounded by 4 shooters. Perhaps if he plays alongside Bryant it could be interesting.

But if he is to play the 3, he has to learn to shoot. There's no way around it.

No doubt he needs to improve in shooting. But it's no fantasy. It is how he has been playing, effectively it turns out. To the tune of a 7-3 record.

Of all players averaging 20 minutes or more, Deni has the best +/- rating on the team. In part due to his defense naturally, however he has the 2nd best on/off effect on the team assist %. It's not because he is finishing his shots (as a pass dependent finisher Daniel Gafford is #1 in increasing team assist %) or even racking up assists (though his 2/1 ast/TO ratio is solid) but because he does the little things that lead to a made basket. If you are doubled he moves to give a passing option, he makes the hockey assist, etc.

My point on his shooting is simply that he has been hitting his open shots, and live fire success tends to help young players develop the confidence to improve their shot. It seems pointless to me to rule out the ability of a 20 year old to improve, especially in the one stat that has been proven to be able to improve over a player's career. There are dozens of examples of players who added a ranged shot. Mechanically Deni has nothing terribly broken about his shot, and I showed by the stats where he does hit his open shots at a fair clip. Naturally more proficient shooters hit open shots at a much better rate, still, he will get those opportunities for a stretch until he starts making them, and at that point he may have the confidence and timing to trust the shot and let it fly.

Mostly: we are winning. He is playing well. He is having a significant effect on court with an on/off rating of +12.5 -- even while shooting a poor percentage.

Basically I'm saying trust Wes. Give Deni time. No point killing the kid who is playing pretty well despite his shortcomings. ESPECIALLY WHILE WE ARE WINNING. Can we simply develop chemistry as a team for a bit and enjoy this stretch of decent play? There are no playoffs in November. The kid is playing well, despite limited minutes. The rules changes favor his defense -- and you know what? The rules changes are much closer to the way the game is called in the playoffs. For some players there may not be the drop-off in effectiveness that we tend to see every postseason. I'm actually curious if Trez for instance may be a passable defender in Wes' system and when the playoffs start. 3FG%'s are way down. Players don't have the spacing they used to have, it may be we are seeing that swing back to interior scoring I've been predicting. IF SO we are doing alright, since we are #2 in the league in points in the paint, and have been winning despite the fact that our team has not been hitting outside shots at any great rate.

[2Fluffy4U]

New Season, New Team. 10 Games in.
Over analyzing my friends.








Love it.

[tontoz]

New Season, New Team. 10 Games in.
Over analyzing my friends.








Love it.

Yeah i was thinking there's a lot of lengthy opining about a guy who's played 64 games.

[prime1time]

You can't understate this on the offensive side of the ledger. Once he begins hitting open shots his playmaking becomes a very large +.

What are you basing this off of? Avdija is not a good shooter is struggling, he's a bad shooter who's never had success in any professional setting shoooting the ball.
2018/2019 - Advija was 42/82 from the ft line 51.2%
2019/2020 - Avdija was 67/114 from the ft line 58%
2020/2021 - Avdija was 29/45 64% from the ft line
2021/2022 - Avdija was 12/22 54.5%

The optimism on this board regarding Avdija's shooting is laughable. I challenge someone to find a player who became a good shooter that a history of struggling shooting the ball as much as Avdija has.

I expect his offense will improve, especially as the scouting reports say to leave him alone, he will get open shots

Teams have been leaving already leaving Advija open and he has been missing them. No one is running this kind of shooter off the 3-point line. Why are people just throwing out rational thinking when it comes to Avdija? Over 263 ft's at 57%. At what point is it fair to say that Avdija will likely never develop a jumpshot.

We have catch and shoot players all over the court but they need that middleman to swing the ball to the right guy and keep the ball moving. We need a guy who moves to give a passing option when our playmakers are doubled. A facilitator who is a plus defender is a useful player.

And here in lies the rub. As good as Advija may be and as much as Advija can contribute by being a facilitator and an above-average defender, we would be better if he could shoot. In light of Advija's struggles shooting, I think it's fair to say that we are still looking for a long term solution at SF. And for people who say he's only 20, we moved on from Troy Brown Jr at 21 and Brown Jr is a career 75% FT shooter. 18% points higher than Avdija...

Pretty weak argument if your own data point has shown career progression (this season is way to small of a sample to add on to that).

I mean the season he has will speak for himself. My goal in life isn't to convince you lol. Believe what you want, but I think this board is severely hurt by posters that pick and choose how they view players based on their on personal feelings rather than cold hard data. Deni's 64% from the ft line was worse than rookie Rui, worse than rookie Wall, worse than rookie Beal, worse than rookie TBJr and worse than rookie Otto Porter. We could go back to those threads and read what was read what was said about each respective player.

My only point is that posters should so intellectual consistency. If you hold rookie Rui to one standard or rookie Troy Brown Jr to one standard. Then hold Deni to the same standard. There are massive battles in this thread where I show how Rui actually showed progress shooting the ball. Yet, posters tell me he's nowhere near being a good enough shooter.

Yet I come in this thread, and Deni is shooting under 30% from 3 and this thread is rife with optimism and hope. This is called logical inconsitency. One of the posters that I clash with the most - payitforward - I actually respect the most because the way he evaluates players is consistent. With many posters they just decide who they like and they evaluate things through a rose-colored lens.

Answer me this, what do you think the chances are that Deni Avdija - our top 10 pick - is our long-term answer at SF? If when we drafted Avdija you were told that 64 games into his professional career he was a 31.2% 3 point shooter (with his 3-point attempts decreasing from year 1 to year 2) and a 61% ft shooter would you be happy and ecstatic? If Rui or Wall or Beal or Otto or TBJr had the same percentages through the same amount of games played, would you be ecstatic?