The RealGM Wizards Board Draft Thread 2008/2009

[WizarDynasty]

there is only black bigman that is better than white bigman pau gasol is tim duncan.

[doclinkin]

Doc, forgive my timing on asking you this, but Rubio vs. Calathes: Are all of the draft experts right in rating Rubio multiple times better than Calathes? (I've got too much class to say - They can't be too much different, because they're white. )

This is my read, on a grand total of 5 ACB/Euro games this year and various (non-usa game) Olympics games. What Ricky has that beats most other players is truly ridiculous vision and anticipation. Really pretty handle. But Calathes is the better athlete of the two.

On the whole: there are plenty better athletes in the world than Calathes. There are few players in the world with better vision than Ricky. Ricky is a gamble: can he develop sufficient athleticism to survive in the NBA defensively? He'll make any team/any player better on the offensive end. His anticipation and steals make him disruptive on defense, but he won't stay in front of anybody, will get shoved around a bit.

Me? I'm torn. Would I'd rather take Calathes with a 2nd round pick, or late late 1st (as a bench back-up PG) than take Ricky in the high lotto (as a starter)? Probably. I suspect I could trade off/down and get better team value.

But could be I'm not much of a gambler.

Ricky is fun to watch for real. Kid could sell some tickets. Win a championship? Dunno. But fill seats? Yes definitely.

[miller31time]

Not that he should be on our radar or anything, but Gerald Henderson is so much better than his numbers suggest (and his numbers aren't bad).

Athleticism, natural abilities and take-over mentality....he's got the whole package.

[barelyawake]

That said we prob'ly shouldn't take him, because he is, after all, white...

I never said that white guys can't play. My point is that white non-centers are almost always taken too high. Rubio may make a fine pro, but I'm willing to bet that his career won't pan out to be worthy of a top 3 pick.

LOL well, I checked your theory (in the last decade at least). I think it doesn't hold much agua. I think what you can say (I suppose) is that NCAA white, tourney stars tend to get too much hype in the drafts. But, you can say the same about a bunch of black NCAA college stars/NBA scrubs. And I can see a ton of white foreign players who went much later than they should have gone. I think you got burned defending Reddick too passionately, and now are blaming all white non-centers lol... jk...

[barelyawake]

I would love to love Rubio. But, have you seen his jumpshot? It's flatfooted. His whole game has no jump in it. Hey, if we get Rubio and he turns out to be a stud, I'll be the happiest. I just don't see it. I don't get the "Chris Matthews thrill up the leg" that sweet-passing, foreign players normally give me.

[mhd]

If we are looking at an ACC guard, take Jeff Teague. He's easily got a pro-game.

[nate33]

That said we prob'ly shouldn't take him, because he is, after all, white...

I never said that white guys can't play. My point is that white non-centers are almost always taken too high. Rubio may make a fine pro, but I'm willing to bet that his career won't pan out to be worthy of a top 3 pick.

LOL well, I checked your theory (in the last decade at least). I think it doesn't hold much aqua. I think what you can say (I suppose) is that NCAA white, tourney stars tend to get too much hype in the drafts. But, you can say the same about a bunch of black NCAA college stars/NBA scrubs. And I can see a ton of white foreign players who went much later than they should have gone. I think you got burned defending Reddick too passionately, and now are blaming all white non-centers lol... jk...

Well, I haven't sat and conducted a statistical analysis, but among the 11 white non-centers drafted in the past 10 lotteries, 8 have been busts, Wally was mildly disappointing, and Hinrich and Miller probably lived up to their draft spot but did not exceed expectations. That's a pretty lousy percentage. I'd be willing to bet that black non-centers drafted in the lottery did better.

I also disagree with your point about foreign players. Yeah, foreign players were underrated 6-10 years ago when only a few teams bothered to scout the European talent, but these days, they're just as overrated as American-born white guys. What have Sergei Monya, Beno Udrih, Marco Bellineli, Viktor Khryapa, Zarko Cabarkapa, Zoran Planinic, and Carlos Delfino done? There are a couple of guys who have managed to stick around as rotation players like Sergio Rodriguez, Sasha Pavlovic and Sasha Vujacic, but they haven't exactly set the world on fire. Rudy Fernandez looks to be the first upside surprise among foreign white non-centers drafted in the first round in quite sometime. And he doesn't really count because the only reason he went so late in the first place was due to contractual concerns.

[barelyawake]

Rudy, Marco, Splitter, Jaric, AK, Ginobili, Beno, Delfino, Sasha, and Nocioni (undrafted) were all drafted lower than they should have been (Andris and Okur to me are PFs, and were also drafted later that should have been). I'm not saying it's because they are white or because they are foreign. I'm simply saying they were drafted later than they should have been.

Is Francisco Garcia considered white? Is Jose Calderon? And Blake obviously was drafted later than he should have been. I always consider Lee a PF, who was draft too late as well.

Anyway, whatever... not my theory... And I was kidding anyway...

[doclinkin]

I would love to love Rubio. But, have you seen his jumpshot? It's flatfooted. His whole game has no jump in it.

That's all very true except for that psuedo 'bomba' he uses, the running floater. Kid can still pass and dribble in crazy traffic despite having no lift in his game. Can still hit crazy shots from odd angles inside, can thread the needle on both passes and shots, uses the glass well. Could add more arc to his 'jumper'. But yeah, he's not crazy athletic. Still, I've seen him catch a rebound with his back to the basket, without seeing it come off the rim, ran to where it should be, caught it with his back turned, fired it up court in one motion. Rubio has redonkulous numbers of ast/40 in the ACB league. Silly steals rate in both ACB and Euroball. He predicts the game as well as anybody, which can often make up for lack of athleticism. Remains to be seen if it translates.

[Ruzious]

I would love to love Rubio. But, have you seen his jumpshot? It's flatfooted. His whole game has no jump in it.

That's all very true except for that psuedo 'bomba' he uses, the running floater. Kid can still pass and dribble in crazy traffic despite having no lift in his game. Can still hit crazy shots from odd angles inside, can thread the needle on both passes and shots, uses the glass well. Could add more arc to his 'jumper'. But yeah, he's not crazy athletic. Still, I've seen him catch a rebound with his back to the basket, without seeing it come off the rim, ran to where it should be, caught it with his back turned, fired it up court in one motion. Rubio has redonkulous numbers of ast/40 in the ACB league. Silly steals rate in both ACB and Euroball. He predicts the game as well as anybody, which can often make up for lack of athleticism. Remains to be seen if it translates.

It's almost like - If Pete Maravich was a point guard, he would have been Rubio. And Rubio kinda looks like Pistol - with the nose and the hair and the non-muscular look. But Rubio probably helps his teammates a whole lot more than Pete did. Can you see those 2 on the Globetrotters? Well... maybe not.

I'm trying to picture Rubio and Arenas playing together... like Barely mentioned about his lack o jump shot - that gives me the out to say no. They'd be matadors on D, but they would have a steals party that only Eddie Jordan could appreciate.

[dobrojim]

I didn't watch the whole game last night but when I was watching, I thought
Harden looked much better than in the games I had seen before. But when
the announcers start saying 2nd overall pick, I'm still shaking my head.

[spaceman_E]

Should Grev Vasquez be considered?

I really haven't watched MD much this year. Watched some last night on tivo.
He's a stat-filler but you have to question his potential to do that in the pros.
Foul trouble last night aside, he is considered heady.

I expect Greivis to stay at College Park. The terps will be stronger next year and he'll have a chance to establish himself as a team captain floor leader, show how he can play next to good talent. With a better W-L record. In theory.

I actually think he could be alright after UMD. If he doesn't make it to the NBA he'll get snapped up by an ACB team. I'd happily sink a 2nd round pick on him, the biggest thing in his way right now is inconsistent shooting and over-enthusiasm (in passing etc). Most of his problems are curable with experience, and he's got solid intangibles in many other categories.

I agree, his shot is still way to inconsistent at the moment. But he is also a player I feel will be better in the pros with superior finishers around him and more space to work with. His first step is too slow to blow by in the pros but he still finds a way to get to the line. The problem is he can't guard PGs in the NBA and needs to add muscle to keep SGs off the block. He would look good with a PG who can defend and shoot the spot up jumper.

As for G. Henderson, let's remember that he was being guarded by a guy in Mosley who had badly sprained his ankle earlier in the game and then guys who were in foul trouble after that. I do think he will be a good player though. Solid fundamentals other than the flopping (when is basketball going to start handing out red cards?), good all around game and his shot is nice, it just needs range out to the NBA 3. I would look at him in the 6-12 range depending on who comes out.

[doclinkin]

It's almost like - If Pete Maravich was a point guard, he would have been Rubio. And Rubio kinda looks like Pistol - with the nose and the hair and the non-muscular look. But Rubio probably helps his teammates a whole lot more than Pete did. Can you see those 2 on the Globetrotters? Well... maybe not.

Yep, Maravich. Think I said that earlier in the thread, but it's been said elsewhere too. Question in my mind is if Pistol Pete would have been the same player nowadays, and succeeded in the league. Dunno. Agreed about the Ricky/Gilbert combo, it's problematic. Though the team would have been far more interesting the past couple years with a true distributing Point guard while Gil was in the shop, up on blocks. Our Bigs would be better-- except for one thing, the games I've seen, right now Ricky tends to drive into/through the defense, and then dish to the blocks, clogging up the middle, forcing players to finish in traffic. If he were more of a threat from outside he could make the midrange pass even more deadly.

Right, so, agreed, I'm still feeling we get better value longterm by dangling any Ricky pick.

[doclinkin]

burst of enlightenment to me that i'll share:

drafting someone is different than keeping someone. we can draft rubio, but trade the rights to him. it's a lot less risky than trading picks because we'll know exactly who we're getting and who we're giving up. clear display of information, transparency of the market, maximized efficiency, etc.

So new mantra... draft based on talent and then keep based on need.

Right, that's always been part of the equation of drafting the BPA. Or best talent. You take the guy at the higher 'tier' before you pick for need. If you guess right, they become an asset. Okay, you may devalue the asset by selecting at a deep position since other teams know there are limited minutes at the spot, but hey at least they are interested. At least they are asking. If you guess right, you end up with depth that allows you to trade a more established player as well for a better fit elsewhere. With a good coach, depth is a good thing.

[lupin]

Pistol Pete probably wouldn't even have passed the physical these days.

"An autopsy revealed the cause of death to be a rare congenital defect; he had been born with a missing left coronary artery, a vessel which supplies blood to the muscle fibers of the heart. His right coronary artery was grossly enlarged and had been compensating for the defect.[8]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Maravich

[closg00]

Fords latest "Hot" list.

Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain
Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona
Willie Warren, G, Oklahoma
DeJuan Blair, PF, Pittsburgh
James Johnson, PF, Wake Forest
Donatas Motiejunas, F, Lithuania
Nick Calathes, G, Florida
Craig Brackins, PF, Iowa
Sylven Landesberg, SG, Virginia (Fords top sleeper)
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009 ... tch-090227

We don't even have to have the top pick this year to be in a position of strength. Heck, if Rubio comes out, we could get a lot for him if we pick him in the top-5.

Anyone know anything about the SG for VA? sounds intriguing.

[Severn Hoos]

Anyone know anything about the SG for VA? sounds intriguing.

Why is everyone picking on poor old UVA? We barely have any D-1 quality players, let alone NBA-caliber. So now we somehow manage to snag one, and people are pushing him out as a 1-and-done.

OK, I'll play along. Landesberg is really smooth. Gets to the basket well, decent outside shot (nowhere near 3 point NBA-range for now). Good rebounder and adequate passer. Plus: Is the undisputed leader of his team as a Freshman. Minus: The team is lousy. (Not his fault - the cupboard really is bare behind him.) Sometimes defers/disappears too much, but can take over games when he's on.

Selfishly, I'd love for him to stay 4 years. But I do think it's best for him not to come out this year. He needs to refine his shot, cut down on turnovers, and work on his defense. May depend on what happens with his coach. If Leitao gets fired, it may cause Sylen to lean more toward going into the draft.

How about this - we take Landesberg with our 1st rounder next year to fill out the starting lineup with Gil, Caron, Brendan, and Blake?

[Ruzious]

Tough game for Arizona against Washington, but I still like Hill and Budinger. Jon Brockman was his usual wildebeast self - getting a bunch of key offensive bounds when it mattered the most - and even though Hill had the better game - Brockman did it when it mattered. I'd love to see Brockman and Blair of Pittsburg in a rasslin match. Throw in Jeff Adrien and Luke Harandogy to make it a tag-team match. Use a Big Ten referee - so anything goes. They're all like 6'7 260ish and ornery sumbitches that'd give up a body part to get a rebound.

But anyway - Budinger. I know there's nate's rule against white swingment, but he's yet another exception. Forget color. Some people can, and some can't. And I'm not going to compare him to a white player (though Mike Miller wouldn't be a terrible comparison), because the NBA player most like him is Rip Hamilton - though Bud is bigger. He fouled out - otherwise I think AZ would have won. He's got such a smooth offensive game - and he's gotten big enough so he can play the 3 just as well as the 2 in the NBA, imo. Bud would put up even bigger numbers if AZ was a better coached team.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Thabeet looked outstanding early against Notre Dame.

He covered Harangody all the way out at the three point line and didn't get beat or go for any fakes.

[closg00]

Thabeet looked outstanding early against Notre Dame.

He covered Harangody all the way out at the three point line and didn't get beat or go for any fakes.

It's an easy comparison, but Thabeet looks like the 2nd coming of Mutumbo; not much offensively, but already a shot-blocking machine. A smart shot-blocker who doesn't have to rely on athleticism. I think he has a huge upside for some team wanting a defensive center.

+ I LOVE that Thabeet doesn't doesn't go for fakes, that's what makes him a shot-blocking monster.