Arenas Traded for Rashard Lewis

[JonathanJoseph]

JoJo, worst case scenario - the Wiz save 13 mil. Arenas and Lewis are both useless compared to their contracts and will almost definitely continue to be. You can flip a coin as to which will be the better player.

And that's being charitable to Arenas.

Frankly, Lewis has easily been the better player. He is putting much better offensive numbers (going by PER). He is more efficient. And he's been a better defender. He's not a shut down guy or anything, but he's pretty solid defensively and on the glass. He's certainly a way better defender than Arenas was at any point in his career. Finally, Lewis is a good fit. Prior to the trade, our biggest hole was our lack of a catch-and-shoot SF who could rebound while we had a redundancy in ball-dominant PG's. Now there really isn't a gaping hole at any position. (Don't get me wrong, we need need to get better at all positions, but there's no single weakness that stands out.)

That's interesting that you think it's being charitable to Arenas.

Perhaps the bulk of the difference is that you see a bad player and I see a good player playing badly.

[nate33]

JoJo, worst case scenario - the Wiz save 13 mil. Arenas and Lewis are both useless compared to their contracts and will almost definitely continue to be. You can flip a coin as to which will be the better player.

And that's being charitable to Arenas.

Frankly, Lewis has easily been the better player. He is putting much better offensive numbers (going by PER). He is more efficient. And he's been a better defender. He's not a shut down guy or anything, but he's pretty solid defensively and on the glass. He's certainly a way better defender than Arenas was at any point in his career. Finally, Lewis is a good fit. Prior to the trade, our biggest hole was our lack of a catch-and-shoot SF who could rebound while we had a redundancy in ball-dominant PG's. Now there really isn't a gaping hole at any position. (Don't get me wrong, we need need to get better at all positions, but there's no single weakness that stands out.)

That's interesting that you think it's being charitable to Arenas.

Perhaps the bulk of the difference is that you see a bad player and I see a good player playing badly.

Yes. That appears to be the difference.

I see a guy who posted a PER 18.7 (with terrible defense) last year as a Wizard. He posted a PER of 14 (with terrible defense) in 21 games this year as a Wizard; and now he's posting a PER of 10 (with terrible defense) in 21 games as a Magic.

What will it take for you to be convinced that a "player playing badly" is actually a bad player?

[fishercob]

JoJo, worst case scenario - the Wiz save 13 mil. Arenas and Lewis are both useless compared to their contracts and will almost definitely continue to be. You can flip a coin as to which will be the better player.

And that's being charitable to Arenas.

Frankly, Lewis has easily been the better player. He is putting much better offensive numbers (going by PER). He is more efficient. And he's been a better defender. He's not a shut down guy or anything, but he's pretty solid defensively and on the glass. He's certainly a way better defender than Arenas was at any point in his career. Finally, Lewis is a good fit. Prior to the trade, our biggest hole was our lack of a catch-and-shoot SF who could rebound while we had a redundancy in ball-dominant PG's. Now there really isn't a gaping hole at any position. (Don't get me wrong, we need need to get better at all positions, but there's no single weakness that stands out.)

That's interesting that you think it's being charitable to Arenas.

Perhaps the bulk of the difference is that you see a bad player and I see a good player playing badly.

When does one become the other? Why is Arenas a good player playing badly and Lewis not the same?

I have the think Gil will get better. He simply can't continue to be this bad unless he's more injured than we know. OTOH, while his GM may believe in him, I think he's a really bad fit with SVG; I don't think his coahc believes in him. I wonder if ORL flames out in the playoffs if Otis tries to replace SVG with someone more suited to Gil's style?

[JonathanJoseph]

Yes. That appears to be the difference.

I see a guy who posted a PER 18.7 (with terrible defense) last year as a Wizard. He posted a PER of 14 (with terrible defense) in 21 games this year as a Wizard; and now he's posting a PER of 10 (with terrible defense) in 21 games as a Magic.

What will it take for you to be convinced that a "player playing badly" is actually a bad player?

For starters, look at your sample sizes. There is far, far more evidence that Arenas is a good player playing badly than vice versa. He has a career PER of 20.1.

And to be honest, nothing that happens this season will convince me of anything either way. Arenas is, inexcusably, out of shape (but since Blatche is as well, and Caron Butler was last year, I know where I place that blame) and that is affecting every part of his health and his game. When I see a healthy Arenas (and I know that is a relative term) playing poorly, I'll change my tune.

Deshawn Stevenson is a perfect example. Was a steady 11-13 PER until he got hurt and went down to a 3 PER. Now that's healthy again, he's up to 13 (and was much higher earlier in the season).

Arenas, post-knee injuries, was a steady 18-19 PER. He could come back next season and be back on track at an 18-19 PER at which point he'd have trade value with only 3 years left on his deal.

But it's difficult to make a credible argument that the Wizards did not trade Arenas at his lowest value considering his PER this season is far below even his rookie year. Would seem to be pretty clear what is the exception and what is the rule.

[JonathanJoseph]

When does one become the other? Why is Arenas a good player playing badly and Lewis not the same?

I have the think Gil will get better. He simply can't continue to be this bad unless he's more injured than we know. OTOH, while his GM may believe in him, I think he's a really bad fit with SVG; I don't think his coahc believes in him. I wonder if ORL flames out in the playoffs if Otis tries to replace SVG with someone more suited to Gil's style?

Yes, it will be very, very interesting to see what happens if the Magic flame out in the playoffs. It's obvious that SVG and Gil have differing styles and Otis Smith believes in Arenas and has made a big bet on him.

I forget where I read it, but around the time of the trade Otis Smith had referred to Arenas as a "sleeping giant". I am certain that Otis Smith does not believe that a 10 PER Arenas is the real thing.

[dandridge 10]

JoJo, worst case scenario - the Wiz save 13 mil. Arenas and Lewis are both useless compared to their contracts and will almost definitely continue to be. You can flip a coin as to which will be the better player.

Arenas was miserable here. There was no chance he was going to be happy. That was increasingly clear when he was here. So, it would be illogical to expect his trade value would increase. When someone is increasingly unhappy, what are the chances that they're going to improve?

It was clear that the Wiz did their due diligence and shopped him around to every other team. If there was even 1 other offer, I'd be surprised. Making a move then was in the Wiz' best interests and Arenas' best interest. It was a bad situation, and I definitely understand it leaves a bad taste in your mouth, but that was the situation.

I asked Eddie Tapscott at a chalk talk meeting with season ticket holders whether there were any other offers for Arenas. He said there was 1...Stephen Jackson. ET then said, "we were not going to trade one head case for another." Take it for what it is worth.

[willbcocks]

If Arenas had been given the time and minutes to shoot his way out of his slump and into shape, what would franchises like Toronto or Cleveland, who are desperate for talent, have given up. Those franchises will be starting over soon.

What about Denver that is about to get blown up? Or Phoenix after they move Steve Nash? The Nets failed to land Melo and are looking at landing a marketable star. What about the TWolves when they realize Rubio will never play for them and they need perimeter guys to play around their front line.

The point is that Rashard Lewis is a salary cap problem until 2012/2013. That meant the Wizards could have waited until at least 2011/2012 to see if there was a better alternative.

Teams starting over would be the least likely to go after Arenas. Rebuilding teams want young players and cap space, not older veterans on huge contracts. And marketable? Gil is probably the least marketable player in the league right now. There is all the off the court stuff and negative media attention, and his game isn't even marketable anymore because he's lost a step he's never going to get back.

The teams we were targeting were those willing to take on some salary to get over the hump. Not many teams fit this description who were in need of a pg, and the CBA expiration made many teams unwilling to make such a large move now. Even Orlando's owners were very reluctant to deal for Gil. Perhaps the only person in the league willing to give positive value -- and we all have agreed that Lewis's contract is better than Gil's, so Lewis is positive value -- for Gil was Otis Smith, his mentor, when his team was struggling and faced a dire situation to keep Dwight Howard and hold onto his own job. Otis had to make a move, and if we didn't trade Gil then, the offer might not have been on the table a month later.

My feeling when the trade broke was that we were getting the least positive positive value for Gil that was available. The Baron Davis rumor was out there but he would have been worse than Shard. Since then, Shard has proved to be useful playing the SF and a decent presence in the lockerroom, so our side of the trade has improved a little since. Frankly I don't care about Gil's play or off the court issues since he went to Orlando, as that's all irrelevant to the trade. But the situation here was bad for everyone - Gil included - and was noticeably affecting the team. And on the court, having Gil here was causing problems for our future star player. That was the biggest risk and reason to make a move quickly rather than wait and hope that we could get slightly more positive value.

[JonathanJoseph]

JoJo, worst case scenario - the Wiz save 13 mil. Arenas and Lewis are both useless compared to their contracts and will almost definitely continue to be. You can flip a coin as to which will be the better player.

Arenas was miserable here. There was no chance he was going to be happy. That was increasingly clear when he was here. So, it would be illogical to expect his trade value would increase. When someone is increasingly unhappy, what are the chances that they're going to improve?

It was clear that the Wiz did their due diligence and shopped him around to every other team. If there was even 1 other offer, I'd be surprised. Making a move then was in the Wiz' best interests and Arenas' best interest. It was a bad situation, and I definitely understand it leaves a bad taste in your mouth, but that was the situation.

I asked Eddie Tapscott at a chalk talk meeting with season ticket holders whether there were any other offers for Arenas. He said there was 1...Stephen Jackson. ET then said, "we were not going to trade one head case for another." Take it for what it is worth.

Well then there it is. There was ALREADY a better trade offer on the table. A team built around a head case (Arenas) surrounded by nothing but head cases (Blatche, McGee, Young, Deshawn Stevenson andnmany would argue Haywood earlier in his career) but all of a sudden there can't be a head case.

This is the same thought process with which Grunfeld/Tapscott brought down the franchise 2 years ago when they wouldn't let Blacthe/McGee play during a lost season because Jamison and Butler were "veterans" and could do no wrong despite poor play, poor shot selection and poor effort.

Rashard Lewis contract is $53M-$65M total. SJax contract is $27M total. This is the definition of poor judgment.

[montestewart]

^
Jackson gets like half what Arenas gets per year. It wasn't a straight up trade. I'll bet Diop and some other junk would have been part of that package. Besides, a completed trade is on its face better evidence of an available trade than that single comment from Tapscott.

[nate33]

JoJo, worst case scenario - the Wiz save 13 mil. Arenas and Lewis are both useless compared to their contracts and will almost definitely continue to be. You can flip a coin as to which will be the better player.

Arenas was miserable here. There was no chance he was going to be happy. That was increasingly clear when he was here. So, it would be illogical to expect his trade value would increase. When someone is increasingly unhappy, what are the chances that they're going to improve?

It was clear that the Wiz did their due diligence and shopped him around to every other team. If there was even 1 other offer, I'd be surprised. Making a move then was in the Wiz' best interests and Arenas' best interest. It was a bad situation, and I definitely understand it leaves a bad taste in your mouth, but that was the situation.

I asked Eddie Tapscott at a chalk talk meeting with season ticket holders whether there were any other offers for Arenas. He said there was 1...Stephen Jackson. ET then said, "we were not going to trade one head case for another." Take it for what it is worth.

Well then there it is. There was ALREADY a better trade offer on the table. A team built around a head case (Arenas) surrounded by nothing but head cases (Blatche, McGee, Young, Deshawn Stevenson andnmany would argue Haywood earlier in his career) but all of a sudden there can't be a head case.

This is the same thought process with which Grunfeld/Tapscott brought down the franchise 2 years ago when they wouldn't let Blacthe/McGee play during a lost season because Jamison and Butler were "veterans" and could do no wrong despite poor play, poor shot selection and poor effort.

Rashard Lewis contract is $53M-$65M total. SJax contract is $27M total. This is the definition of poor judgment.

Since Arenas for SJax straight up doesn't work, I assume that it was Arenas for SJax + filler, which probably would have included Diop plus maybe Matt Carroll. If that's the case, then the Lewis deal is better.

[JonathanJoseph]

Since Arenas for SJax straight up doesn't work, I assume that it was Arenas for SJax + filler, which probably would have included Diop plus maybe Matt Carroll. If that's the case, then the Lewis deal is better.

True, but it certainly shoots holes in the theory that it was the best/only option.

[verbal8]

JoJo, worst case scenario - the Wiz save 13 mil. Arenas and Lewis are both useless compared to their contracts and will almost definitely continue to be. You can flip a coin as to which will be the better player.

If they both are useless, it could be a big win for the Wizards. In 2012-3 Lewis' contract becomes a great trade chip. Under the current rules he could be traded for 27.5 million in contracts and the acquiring team would only be on the hook for 10 million. While the Knicks overpaid to dump Jeffries, I think that 17.5 million in salary relief should/could command a similar package of incentives.

[TGW]

Hey guys, what if we waited, and Arenas gained his 2006/07 form back, and the Cavs offered expirings and their #1?
I mean, give me a break. You can sit here making up ridiculous hypoteheticals all day. What we know for FACTS right this very moment:

1) Lewis is playing better than Arenas
2) Arenas is damaged goods
3) Lewis has a shorter contract

To think somehow Arenas is going to get more valuable than Arenas by the trade deadline, or by this summer, is not only wishful thinking...it's just downright delusional. I don't know why this argument is still going on.

[AceDegenerate]

I don't really see why so many are still debating this.

There is one thing that is certainly not up for debate.. and that is that the Wizards absolutely suck this year.. WITH or WITHOUT ARENAS.

How about we start worrying about getting past SUCKING, and then eventually we will find out who "won" this trade?

[JonathanJoseph]

I don't really see why so many are still debating this.

There is one thing that is certainly not up for debate.. and that is that the Wizards absolutely suck this year.. WITH or WITHOUT ARENAS.

How about we start worrying about getting past SUCKING, and then eventually we will find out who "won" this trade?

Right. And with more patience, we wouldn't have to wait until 2012-2013 to do that.

[JonathanJoseph]

Hey guys, what if we waited, and Arenas gained his 2006/07 form back, and the Cavs offered expirings and their #1?
I mean, give me a break. You can sit here making up ridiculous hypoteheticals all day. What we know for FACTS right this very moment:

1) Lewis is playing better than Arenas
2) Arenas is damaged goods
3) Lewis has a shorter contract

To think somehow Arenas is going to get more valuable than Arenas by the trade deadline, or by this summer, is not only wishful thinking...it's just downright delusional. I don't know why this argument is still going on.

Delusional? Ok, then what were you saying about Deshawn Stevenson 12 months ago?

[nate33]

Hey guys, what if we waited, and Arenas gained his 2006/07 form back, and the Cavs offered expirings and their #1?
I mean, give me a break. You can sit here making up ridiculous hypoteheticals all day. What we know for FACTS right this very moment:

1) Lewis is playing better than Arenas
2) Arenas is damaged goods
3) Lewis has a shorter contract

To think somehow Arenas is going to get more valuable than Arenas by the trade deadline, or by this summer, is not only wishful thinking...it's just downright delusional. I don't know why this argument is still going on.

Delusional? Ok, then what were you saying about Deshawn Stevenson 12 months ago?

Please, spare me your anecdotal evidence. For every Deshawn Stevenson, I can cite a Brendan Haywood where a players' performance mysteriously drops off a cliff. The value of players' fluctuate, but in general, you can spot an upward trend versus a downward trend. Arenas is clearly in a downward trend. Deshawn Stevenson type outliers are always possible, but they're not the norm.

[Ruzious]

Stevenson had a nice streak of 5 games, but he hasn't done well outside of those games. In his last 10 games, he's made 15 of 54 FGs - good for 27.8%.

[JonathanJoseph]

Hey guys, what if we waited, and Arenas gained his 2006/07 form back, and the Cavs offered expirings and their #1?
I mean, give me a break. You can sit here making up ridiculous hypoteheticals all day. What we know for FACTS right this very moment:

1) Lewis is playing better than Arenas
2) Arenas is damaged goods
3) Lewis has a shorter contract

To think somehow Arenas is going to get more valuable than Arenas by the trade deadline, or by this summer, is not only wishful thinking...it's just downright delusional. I don't know why this argument is still going on.

Delusional? Ok, then what were you saying about Deshawn Stevenson 12 months ago?

Please, spare me your anecdotal evidence. For every Deshawn Stevenson, I can cite a Brendan Haywood where a players' performance mysteriously drops off a cliff. The value of players' fluctuate, but in general, you can spot an upward trend versus a downward trend. Arenas is clearly in a downward trend. Deshawn Stevenson type outliers are always possible, but they're not the norm.

Right. And then you counter with a Hedo Turkoglu and realize that things like health, playing time, team chemistry all can have dramatic impacts on a player's efficacy. Do you not think that it Haywood was getting consistent playing time his production and play would improve? We already all know that Haywood plays better when he's not looking over his shoulder....

Which is why making any absolute judgements about a player who is having a ~20 game stretch at 50% of his career PER is probably jumping the gun or at least worthy of a thoughtful debate.

Sorry for bringing that whole evidence thing into play...

[nate33]

Stevenson had a nice streak of 5 games, but he hasn't done well outside of those games. In his last 10 games, he's made 15 of 54 FGs - good for 27.8%.

Good point. As the season wears on, we are seeing that Stevenson alleged great play isn't really that extraordinary. He is currently posting a PER of 12.6. In his two healthy seasons in Washington, he posted a PER of 12.9 and 12.6. Yes, he's playing better than his two injury-plagued years (PER of 6.9 and 3.3 respectively) but let's not make it out like he's the most improved player of the year or anything. He is just healthy and back into his ideal role as a low-minute 5th option.