Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Beal hasn't really done anything to make the SG spot his. If Oladipo or Shabazz or Mclemore is better, draft him...same goes for the PG spot with Wall.

I agree, 100%.

Marcus Smart, C.J. McCollum, Trey Burke, Michael Carter Williams, and Lorenzo Brown are all guys I would not hesitate to draft.

People never want to see things that might be risky as the way to go, but trading Wall just might be the way to go. If you can get two top 7 picks, you would be dumb not to in this draft IMO.

I disagree 100%. This team has a severe lack of talent right now. And while I am a strong advocate of taking the best player available, you don't go out of your way to just replace one of the two really talented players that we actually do have.

I didn't say I would go out of my way to draft a G. I would not leave Noel, or (maybe) Zeller on the board. I am not sure, however, that Muhammed or McLemore are guys I would draft before Smart or possibly McCollum.

I am having a REAL HARD TIME determining whether I would value Porter and Len more than Marcus Smart.

[stevemcqueen1]

i like that ricky ledo kid. was looking forward to see him play this season but that hasn't happened. He's the one who outplayed wall sometime but apparently wall was going slow. But i think with an ability to slash and an ability to shoot he'd be a good pickup, and he has good size at 6 7'.

question UCLA, the guards in the past, westbrook and jrue ( both all stars by the way) seem to have been limited by the system. Could shabazz do better numbers elsewhere? can he actually be a much better scorer on the next level? he seems to have all the tools especially for a sg.

id say draft mclemore or shabazz or maybe noel. but a three headed monster guard lineup! imagine like kyrie, waiters and mclemore or shabazz..its scary.

Ben Howland really isn't that great a coach. And yes, several of the UCLA guys under have ended up being much better Pros when they get let off the chain. Particularly if they have the tools. Westbrook, Holliday, Kevin Love, Aaron Afflalo all come to mind. Even Trevor Ariza, who played a year for Howland during his first season I believe.

It'll be the same for Muhammad. He's got a host of NBA ready scoring tools and he's going to benefit from the much, much faster pace and much greater spacing of the NBA game and the increased opportunities he's going to get. Shabazz is going to go to a bad team looking for an alpha scorer to pass the ball to almost every play. He'll probably get 17 shots a game, if not more, and he'll drop 20+ PPG as a rookie and only get better and more efficient from there. Shabazz had the skills and the body to be an NBA starter coming out of H.S.

I'm for Noel #1 and I think I still like Shabazz at #2. I'm warming up to the idea of McLemore at #2 or #3. If he has an awesome tourney, that would be really compelling.

I think Shabazz is a short SF by nature that's classified as a future NBA SG because he's a pure wing and is only 6'5 or 6'6. That doesn't really bother me though, I think he'd be a very natural fit at SF for us with Wall & Beal with the versatility to swing to SG when Beal is out. He gives Wall a second shooter and transition finisher to work with and gives the team another ball handler that can create offense when Wall is out. The only things that give me pause about him are his passing and his tendency to take some bad shots plus his defense isn't really anything yet. Those don't outweigh the positives for me though.

McLemore is trickier to work into a lineup with Beal and Wall. You're going with a pure three guard lineup then IMO. I think it could be done. Beal is pretty strong and very athletic and can play SF against a surprising amount of matchups. Wall is a big, hyper-athletic PG that can defend a lot of perimeter players. McLemore is also a solid 6'4-6'5 with long-looking arms so he could get some run at SF if he got a little stronger. And he's a freak athlete. McLemore would basically duplicate the effect of having Beal in the lineups--give us another high quality perimeter shooting athlete that doesn't need the ball in his hands or many opportunities to thrive. Also gives us a big time transition finisher. And with his speed and bounce you can run all kinds of cuts and oops you'd normally run for a forward.

But I think you'd need to find a very good defensive and rebounding big man at the 4 or 5 to cover up for how short and slender that lineup is on defense. Three perimeter players under 6'6 weight about 200 pounds. You would have to pray Vesely actually develops into the kind of rangy defender that shrinks the court by covering a ton of ground or go out and find someone else that can. Those guys are pretty rare and it's probably going to be expensive. But on the flip side, you would be able to space the court so well on offense. It would be an absolute nightmare to try and defend Wall, Beal, and McLemore/Shabazz. The teams with big SFs like Carmelo or Durant would have to switch them onto a PF most likely and find a way to cope with such a small lineup.

It'd be a lot cleaner if a true big man like Zeller or Noel was the BPA when we pick.

[Ruzious]

And to add to what Steve said, when evaluating who the BPA is - it's important to factor in - the most important basketball skill is the ability to put the ball in the basket. So with the occasional outlier like Bill Russell, if you have trouble getting the ball in the basket, you have a LOT to overcome. That's why you have to question a player like MKG - as much as how he'd play with Wall. How many successful 3's are there in the NBA that shoot poorly? Not a lot - no matter what team they're on.

[TGW]

Victor Oladipo is the guy I want in the late 20-30. He plays like a bull and he's efficient and gets after it on defense. Seems like a perfect backup guard IMO.

[montestewart]

Victor Oladipo is the guy I want in the late 20-30. He plays like a bull and he's efficient and gets after it on defense. Seems like a perfect backup guard IMO.

That sounds right. I may be off on this, since I don't watch much college ball and largely just sponge off the views of Dat2U, CCJ, doclinkin, hand11, and others, but it's sounding like there are good quality prospects late in the 1st and early in the 2nd. Is this a deep draft that just lacks a stellar top 5-10, or is that just an illusion? If it is deep, what are the odds of getting another 1st, versus the odds of trading the high 2nd away?

[pancakes3]

I think the names that are floating around: Bennett, Smart, Len, Poythress, Goodwin, Porter, McCollum are all late-lotto's and imo (and Dat's and others) are probable busts. Oladipo and Jeff Withey are the only late 1st rounders that I can think of.

Where the place to get value is precisely where we're drafting - in the 2nd round. The Muscalas, Patric Youngs, Doug McDermotts, etc. Basically the upperclassmen that have a solid track record but are being overlooked in favor of underperforming underclassmen.

Also, I had said earlier that CJ Wilcox is on UConn. Nope. He's on UWash and I think he's got a bit of James Harden to him. Good player on a terrible team. He's struggling mightily in conference play but he's also getting the Steph Curry treatment since his teammates are all sub .400 shooters. He's a guy we can draft with the LATE 2nd rounder and get value out of. I'd take him as our 3rd guard over Crawford any day.

[Dat2U]

I don't think it's a particularly deep draft, but I think there's solid depth in the mid-to-late lottery range.

Outside of Noel IMO it's ugly at the top. A good number of quality role players though. I could see maybe 20 guys out of this draft surviving past their initial contract. Maybe one or two out of the 2nd round.

[popper]

After watching Noel this weekend it seems to me that he won't be able to contribute much at all for a few years. He's very thin and weak and won't be able to hold his ground in the paint. I think Vesely could push him around. If we draft him, fans need to understand that it's going to take time for him to fill out and gain muscle (minimum of 2 years IMO).

I like his bball IQ but do we want to pay him and dedicate a roster spot for someone that won't likely contribute until year 2 or 3?

[Dat2U]

After watching Noel this weekend it seems to me that he won't be able to contribute much at all for a few years. He's very thin and weak and won't be able to hold his ground in the paint. I think Vesely could push him around. If we draft him, fans need to understand that it's going to take time for him to fill out and gain muscle (minimum of 2 years IMO).

I like his bball IQ but do we want to pay him and dedicate a roster spot for someone that won't likely contribute until year 2 or 3?

I don't see why he wouldn't be a rotation player at minimum from jump. His effort, energy & athleticism can contribute immediately defensively & on the boards.

[pancakes3]

The A&M game where he put up 19/14 on 70% shooting, virtually single-handedly kept the Aggies to sub 40% shooting, and took all of the opposing big men to the verge of fouling out (3 guys sitting on 4 fouls)? That game?

[stevemcqueen1]

I don't think it's a particularly deep draft, but I think there's solid depth in the mid-to-late lottery range.

Outside of Noel IMO it's ugly at the top. A good number of quality role players though. I could see maybe 20 guys out of this draft surviving past their initial contract. Maybe one or two out of the 2nd round.

Dat I think you should give McLemore more of a chance. There is a lot of upside with him. I'm with you to a point, I worry about his creativity off the bounce and how it might limit him from becoming a top level SG. Plus his on ball defense is pretty subpar, he really gets torched a lot.

That's the negatives out of the way. The past few weeks, McLemore has shown off some ability to get into the paint and use spins and tear drops and hooks for a surprisingly developed finesse game where he has been creating offense for himself. He's more versatile than he seemed early in the year. His straight line drives are good too, he uses his speed to get to the rim. I don't think he'll ever be an ankle breaker or someone that can attack multiple defenders off the dribble in a cleared out half court set. But I think you also have to consider that he wouldn't have to in order to be an outstanding player here. That's the benefit of having Wall.

Does that make him a role player? Yeah, by definition. But role players can make All Star games when put in the right situations: Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer, Rip Hamilton, Roy Hibbert, Tony Parker, etc. And none of those guys are the kind of athlete that McLemore is. He's not a typical role player.

- As a late bloomer and recently converted guard, he's got more room for growth than is typical.

- Bill Self's offense is probably disguising some of his playmaking ability.

- His athleticism is so special that it alone nearly makes him a worthy top five pick.

- His strengths--outstanding spot up shooting, transition finishing, off ball movement, passing--all make him an ideal fit for our construction and answer present needs we have for those skills.

Offensively, we could make McLemore work. Just have to figure out how to make it work defensively. If he's the BPA, I'd say draft him and build from there. Worst case scenario IMO is you've got a very attractive trade chip.

[Dat2U]

I don't see how McLemore is better than Beal though. Beal even though his handle is work in progress shows more off the dribble they're the same age. McLemore is a better athlete, but again, he really can't use that as much to his benefit offensively because of his limited handle.

Draftexpress made a comparison of a young Jason Richardson. That's the best one I could come up with as well. JRich is his younger days would attack the rim with straight line drives before age & injuries limited him to being a 3 pt gunner.

If he's the BPA, then maybe we should consider a trade... but right now I don't see a scenario where he's going to be the BPA.

[Ruzious]

After watching Noel this weekend it seems to me that he won't be able to contribute much at all for a few years. He's very thin and weak and won't be able to hold his ground in the paint. I think Vesely could push him around. If we draft him, fans need to understand that it's going to take time for him to fill out and gain muscle (minimum of 2 years IMO).

I like his bball IQ but do we want to pay him and dedicate a roster spot for someone that won't likely contribute until year 2 or 3?

Even if it does take him some time, at least we'd finally have some legitimate hope for the future in developing a legit contender. I'd actually want him to take a year to develop into a quality player, because the 2014 draft looks top-heavy with outstanding forward prospects. Right now, we have so little to bank on that even if we get Noel and he starts out great - we won't be in a good position to build a contender.

[popper]

After watching Noel this weekend it seems to me that he won't be able to contribute much at all for a few years. He's very thin and weak and won't be able to hold his ground in the paint. I think Vesely could push him around. If we draft him, fans need to understand that it's going to take time for him to fill out and gain muscle (minimum of 2 years IMO).

I like his bball IQ but do we want to pay him and dedicate a roster spot for someone that won't likely contribute until year 2 or 3?

Even if it does take him some time, at least we'd finally have some legitimate hope for the future in developing a legit contender. I'd actually want him to take a year to develop into a quality player, because the 2014 draft looks top-heavy with outstanding forward prospects. Right now, we have so little to bank on that even if we get Noel and he starts out great - we won't be in a good position to build a contender.

I basically agree with you but the organization and our fans should understand going in that patience is required. No doubt when he gains 20 or 30 pounds of muscle then he is going to be a special talent.

[stevemcqueen1]

I don't see how McLemore is better than Beal though. Beal even though his handle is work in progress shows more off the dribble they're the same age. McLemore is a better athlete, but again, he really can't use that as much to his benefit offensively because of his limited handle.

Draftexpress made a comparison of a young Jason Richardson. That's the best one I could come up with as well. JRich is his younger days would attack the rim with straight line drives before age & injuries limited him to being a 3 pt gunner.

If he's the BPA, then maybe we should consider a trade... but right now I don't see a scenario where he's going to be the BPA.

I don't think he's ever been better than Beal. I think his upside might be higher. But they both grew up in St. Louis and McLemore was always outshone by Beal. Beal was the Gatorade player of the year, averaged over 30 PPG in H.S., was the star of the under 17 FIBA USA team where he was the clear cut best guard in the tournament by all accounts, the best H.S. player in Missouri, etc. If Beal was still playing at Florida this year, no doubt he'd be as big a star as McLemore and one of the faces of college football. I believe he eked out the most MPG for last year's Florida team which had several upperclassman guards, this year Florida is a top ten team and he'd be the best player on that team. Beal's a better all around player than McLemore.

BUT, McLemore is also a late bloomer and he's a better straight line athlete than Beal.

NBA player comparisons are never perfectly clean and there isn't going to be a perfect comparison for McLemore, but the player I would compare him to is Beal himself. Similar backgrounds, the same age, very similar strengths and weaknesses, similar size and body types. Beal is a better all around player but McLemore is a better athlete. Other than that, they're similar.

I'd take him and play him alongside Beal if he's the BPA and I can't get a good trade for him. We need great shooters and transition outlets to play with Wall.

I can see him potentially being the BPA:

Wizards are currently second from last in the standings, 19.9% chance at the first overall pick, floor of picking fifth. We're within 3 games of New Orleans, Cleveland, and Orlando. Say this happens,

1.) Orlando - Nerlens Noel
2.) Charlotte - Shabazz Muhammad
3.) Cleveland - Cody Zeller
4.) Washington - ? - Ben McLemore

McLemore is definitively the BPA at #4 in that draft scenario IMO. I think this class has a "top 4" after which there is a significant drop in tier to the next group of guys like Len, Austin, Bennett, and Smart.

[stevemcqueen1]

After watching Noel this weekend it seems to me that he won't be able to contribute much at all for a few years. He's very thin and weak and won't be able to hold his ground in the paint. I think Vesely could push him around. If we draft him, fans need to understand that it's going to take time for him to fill out and gain muscle (minimum of 2 years IMO).

I like his bball IQ but do we want to pay him and dedicate a roster spot for someone that won't likely contribute until year 2 or 3?

Even if it does take him some time, at least we'd finally have some legitimate hope for the future in developing a legit contender. I'd actually want him to take a year to develop into a quality player, because the 2014 draft looks top-heavy with outstanding forward prospects. Right now, we have so little to bank on that even if we get Noel and he starts out great - we won't be in a good position to build a contender.

I think Noel can make an early impact similar to what Anthony Davis has done. He's got God given ability for certain things that are impactful at any level of BBall--length, quickness, smarts, and tremendous hands. Anthony Davis has the same strength issues. Nerlens isn't going to be a beast right out the gate, but I think something like ~ 10 PPG, ~25 MPG, ~7 RPG, ~1.5-2 BPG, ~ 1 SPG on 50% shooting is definitely possible for him.

I also think professional athletes can gain muscle bulk fairly quickly if they make a concerted effort to do so. Again, he won't be a beast right off, but he can develop enough strength to function.

And eventually he can be a beast. He's got an awesome frame. To me he's becoming the no brainer at #1 for pretty much every team. Maybe it's the Caribbean and Boston connection, but I get a Pat Ewing vibe from him.

I'm not as pessimistic as most about Wall and Beal. I think both have All Star potential and I think a construction of those two + Noel would be a contender by the time Noel matures. I think that construction would actually be pretty perfect.

[Ruzious]

Here's a link to a stat-based ranking of prospects by a guy named James Brocato. http://shutupandjam.net/draft-rankings/ Here's a link to his methodology. http://shutupandjam.net/2013/01/14/nba- ... -and-more/ I thought it was interesting that he has Smart #1, Burke #2, and Noel #3. That's my top 3 - but in reverse order. I'm a little skeptical, because there are such drastic differences between the grades he gave out now vs the ones he gave out in his sneak peak less than a month ago.

[stevemcqueen1]

Here's a link to a stat-based ranking of prospects by a guy named James Brocato. http://shutupandjam.net/draft-rankings/ Here's a link to his methodology. http://shutupandjam.net/2013/01/14/nba- ... -and-more/ I thought it was interesting that he has Smart #1, Burke #2, and Noel #3. That's my top 3 - but in reverse order. I'm a little skeptical, because there are such drastic differences between the grades he gave out now vs the ones he gave out in his sneak peak less than a month ago.

His sample sizes are going to be so small, particularly for the freshmen, I imagine the results would change drastically.

He's got Shabazz graded pretty low considering where he's typically being projected. But Shabazz has played so few games, how can you get a picture of him at all through statistics? I look at the player in action and see so many of the skills that have made other players like him successful before.

I'm very skeptical of pure numbers driving analysis and projection. Besides, at the end of the day you're drafting a player for his skills, not the stats he put up for another team.

[popper]

I'm leaning toward Shabazz. He's a natural scorer that can play two positions with his length. He can play the first year backing up Beal and Webster logging about 30 minutes a game. He should dominate beginning in year 2.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Here's a link to a stat-based ranking of prospects by a guy named James Brocato. http://shutupandjam.net/draft-rankings/ Here's a link to his methodology. http://shutupandjam.net/2013/01/14/nba- ... -and-more/ I thought it was interesting that he has Smart #1, Burke #2, and Noel #3. That's my top 3 - but in reverse order. I'm a little skeptical, because there are such drastic differences between the grades he gave out now vs the ones he gave out in his sneak peak less than a month ago.

I am not. Brucato knows what he is talking about.

Marcus Smart is probably the best player in this draft right now.

The smartest thing the Wizards could do would be to add Smart, lose Wall, and also add either Zeller, Noel, or Len. They should also get future assets for Wall or they should get rid of a bad contract with Wall.

My idea of a great draft would be Smart, Porter/Len/Austin (whichever they can get), Andre Roberson, Nate Wolters; while the Wizards trade Wall, Crawford, Booker, and Nene's deal to better teams in exchange for multiple picks.