Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[stevemcqueen1]

it doesn't take much to be better then Vesely though. You could prolly bring in a UFA and have a better basketball player then vesely tbh. If EG can, he should try to combine the two 2nds and move up as far as he can. I can't think of a player past the top 40 that would give meaningful minutes on a contender.

I'm also not so irate that they would dismiss 2nd rounders cause I know they're going to draft trash anyways. Just less trash to compile. :/

Please remember this comment this time next season.

Colton Iverson, Zeke Marshall, Andre Roberson, DJ Stephens, Juvonte Reddic, Ray McCallum, Solomon Hill, Brandon Paul, Micheal Snaer, Isaiah Canaan, Carrick Felix, Lorenzo Brown

Those are a few names off the top of my head of players who can contribute to contending teams even if drafted after #40. Most won't solely because of guaranteed roster spots and due to GMs like Ernie, who stock their teams with nondescript players.

Mario Chalmers, Deandre Jordan, Omer Asik, Landry Fields, Lance Stephenson, Chandler Parsons, Kyle Singler, Isaiah Thomas, Lavoy Allen, DeAndre Liggins, E'Twuan Moore were all second round picks.

From 2009 all these players went round two: Sam Young, Jodie Meeks, DeJuan Blair, Jetf Pendergraph, AJ Price, Jonas Jerebko, Patrick Beverly, Marcus Thornton, Chase Budinger, Danny Green

Price was the 52nd pick!

These players were not drafted: Jeremy Lin, Wesley Matthews, Alonzo Gee,

When I hear statements by Grunfeld and others that say there are only a handful of good players I disagree STRONGLY.

CCJ, that is only a handful of good players. Most of the guys you named are roster filler whose main career achievement is just hanging on to an NBA roster spot and maybe getting 10-15 minutes a game for a season or two. Guys like Jeff Pendergraph aren't good or particularly valuable.

And of the guys you named, these are the only ones who are still with the team that drafted them:

- Mario Chalmers
- DeAndre Jordan
- Lance Stephenson
- Chandler Parsons
- LaVoy Allen
- Isaiah Thomas
- Kyle Singler
- Jonas Jerebko
- DeJuan Blair

Blair barely plays now. Tough to use him as the poster boy for 2nd round pick value nowadays. Jerebko and Singler are backups on a terrible team. Ditto for LaVoy Allen. These are replacement level players. Parsons, Jordan, Stephenson, and Chalmers are the only impressive ones as starters for playoff teams.

Nevertheless, that's just 9 players you've mentioned who caught on with the team that drafted them. The earliest being from the 2008 draft. Well there have been 150 second round picks since 2008. So you're looking at what, a 6% chance of finding someone worth keeping long term in the second round?

Omer Asik, E'Twaun Moore, DeAndre Liggins, Landry Fields, Patrick Beverley, Sam Young, Jodie Meeks, Jeff Pendergraph, AJ Price, Danny Green, Chase Budinger, and Marcus Thornton were all traded, cut, or allowed to walk and thus brought minimal return to the teams that spent the pick on them. Jeremy Lin and Alonzo Gee have been cut or changed teams four times each before catching on with their current team--fifth time's the charm. Even Wesley Matthews got cut from the Jazz before he caught on in Portland.

Meaningful success stories with second rounders and UDFAs are few and far between. If a second rounder actually catches on somewhere, it's almost always with some other team further down the road after almost all of his peers have whittled away.

It's pretty absurd to pan EG for not being able to find great players in the second round when it's true for every team in the league. For the life of me I will never understand why Wizards fans get so freaked out about second round picks and make mountains out of molehills over them. They've got these unrealistic expectations of nailing every pick out of the park even though the second round is a total crapshoot. They expect to find a star with every first rounder and a meaningful role player with every second.

And it remains true that no NBA team can develop more than a small handful of young players at the same time. Adding three rookies to develop makes zero sense when we're already loaded with young under developed projects that we can't figure out how to work in and develop behind better veteran players. And every player's development is lower priority than Wall's and Beal's, so they aren't stealing minutes and opportunities from them. Add in the lotto pick this year (hopefully). When are these second round rookies supposed to see the floor? Team building and roster/rotation management is zero sum. A yes to one guy at one spot is a no to everyone else.

[hands11]

So on one hand I read we need to keep and develop players and on the other hand we need to clean up the mess of players that need replaced by better prospects in the 2nd round. Which is it people ?

EG saying they don't want 3 rookie this year is nothing unexpected. Wall and Beal both said they want more vet help. The key is adding players that have the skills you need. As long as they do that and the cost fits, I really don't care how they do it.

So far it looks like they want to do it with two rookies and they are willing to combine the two seconds to move up. Well, reading the tea leaves, I'm not sure they can move up much without adding a player. Right now I will assume that is Singleton or Kevin S. I would rather it be Singleton right now. Both ideas we have posted here already so whats wrong with that.

The idea of adding another last first or a higher 2nd is something I have wanted for a while. Other have posted that idea as well. Now me personally, I could easily see 4 picks I like and posted those drafts a while ago.

Something like CJM/Len/VO/Deing, M Muscula, Eric Murphy and Pierre.

I thought that would be an awesome draft. And there are players like Jackie Carmichael who would be beast types to help with rebounding.

I advocated the reload idea. Clean out as much of Kevin S, Singleton, and Ves as possible and reload. But I didn't expect them to do it pre draft. They just stabilized the team last year. Kevin S will likely get another chance and Ves's value is rock bottom right now. They aren't going to just dump him. He may never be worth the 6th but he is going to be worth more then he is right now.

Fact of the matter is, this team is still really young and adding vets really helped them turn things around. They have Wall and Beal who are going to be studs next year and for many years after that. There will be more drafts. This isn't the end. We are just getting started on our run.

So as a fan leading up to the draft, yeah, I can fill it up with four picks. But if they add two and someone from FA that has experience, I'm fine with that also. Probably better to get a vet back up PG then a rookie. At least for next year.

They will have more cap space in 2014 and there will be another draft to add more pieces. They don't have to get it all done via the draft and they don't have to do it all this year. Lets see what they do before freaking out.

Its a big day. Lottery balls will be a bouncing. Then we will know more. Should be fun to finally know where we pick.

[hands11]

I think the bigger problem had to do with the specific players we drafted, the existing veterans on the roster (or lack thereof), and the team's player development program (or lack thereof). This reminds me of that Grantland article recently published about how it hurts Wizards fans to see Kawhi Leonard playing so well knowing we could have drafted him, but then also pointing out that even if we drafted Leonard, he probably would have been mismanaged and his development would have suffered greatly. It's hard to defend the Vesely pick, but Singleton was honestly a solid pick, and I think he would have found a decent role on a lot of other teams. But the problem is that our coaching staff and front office was not prepared to have so many rookies, especially ones so raw and in desperate need of developmental coaching.

Singleton was not a solid pick - or even a defensible pick. It was a pick that Susan O'Malley would have made - not a professional GM. He was an error-prone player in college who was offensively impaired. His defensive stats were his only impressive stats. And considering they picked Vesely to be a SF - that's what Ernie Grunfeld said - made the Singleton pick even more confusing. Considering Faried was there and supposedly played a different position than Vesely, he was the obvious pick - and there really can't be any justifiable reason not to have picked him, imo - which several of us - not just CCJ - said at the time. Granted, most of us thought Singleton would be better than he has been, but he was still an awful pick.

Considering the wanted to establish themselves more defensively, Singleton as a 3&D was actually what several members on the board wanted at the time. Ves was projected to be a starter so it actually did make some sense. Singleton would come off the bench to defend 2 or 3 positions. Now it wasn't the player I wanted with the first or the 2nd first but I can follow the logic.

Now what would have made more sense than Faried was actually Nikola because you could see McGee wasn't the defensive post player you needed and his contract was coming due the following year. They had been looking and hoping for Kanter 6-11 260. Why not take Nikola 7-0 260

You post players at the time were. Yi - leaving, McGee - not getting it done and to light in the trunk, Kevin S - young strong project, Booker - solid athletic undersized rebounding PF prospect ( Faried ), Hilton Armstrong - gone, Dray - neck fat lap dance Tuesday, Hamady - long lean shot project.

Nikola was the no brainer more then Faried given what they had and needed.

[hands11]

I don't see anything wrong with what Ernie said. He wants to package both 2nd round picks to move up, which is something people, like me, have stated they should do.

The team doesn't want to add 3 rookies, which is another thing some have said they don't really want either.

But Ernie said it so it much be wrong.

[stevemcqueen1]

BTW, every other team with a decent RealGM following that's in the lottery has a "Lottery Drawing" thread with about four pages of posts or whatever. Who's gonna make the dame thing already?

We're practically daring the basketball gods to kick our balls up to 10th.

It'd be a familiar feeling.

After finishing tied for 7th worst in the league (amazing when you think about the 5-28 start), I fully expect the miniscule chance we pick 10th to occur.

How many times have the Wizards won a top three pick when they finished outside the bottom three in the standings? Just 2010 right? The year we finished tied for fourth worst.

2012 we picked 3rd after finishing 2nd worst.
2011 we picked 6th after finishing 4th worst.
2009 we picked 5th after finishing tied for 2nd worst.
2004 we picked 5th after finishing 3rd worst.
2003 we picked 10th after finishing 10th.
2002 we picked 11th after finishing 11th.
2001 we picked 1st after finishing 3rd worst, yipee Kwame Brown!

That's as far as I care to look back. So we've only picked higher than we should have without the lottery twice, one of those times majorly sucked, and neither were big moves upward. Every other time we either picked at our slot or moved down. The basketball gods have taken pleasure in kicking our balls for years.

[tontoz]

Nikola was the no brainer more then Faried given what they had and needed.

Nikola was picked at 16. We had the 18th pick.

[Nivek]

I hate to keep pumping Dukees, but I think Ryan Kelly is a much better prospect than Murphy - and his 9'2 standing reach (same as Nerlens Noel) has to help. He needs to see a strength and conditioning coach and perhaps a nutrionist - considering his 14.5% body fat. But that high body fat % might indicate there's more potential improvement.

I don't have all the combine stuff entered yet, but YODA doesn't seem to like Kelly all that much. He has a lower overall rating than Muhammad. He can shoot it, but I was really surprised to see how little he rebounds.

Who's a better prospect between Ryan Kelly and Kenny Kadji?

Kadji's 45 or 46 years old (j/k--he's 24 already and Kelly is 22), but he strikes me as a better basketball player than Kelly. Kadji rebounds better, blocks more shots, can hit the three almost as well, and is a much better athlete at about the same size as Kelly.

Kelly, and it's not close. Kelly rates as a 2nd round pick in YODA. Kadji is WAY down the list -- solidly in "don't draft" territory. Looking at his numbers, I don't see much of a reason to think Kadji will be an NBA contributor. He's a decent size and a good leaper, but not an impressive rebounder, not a good 2pt%, not a good FT%. Plus, he's already 25 years old.

[montestewart]

I don't see anything wrong with what Ernie said. He wants to package both 2nd round picks to move up, which is something people, like me, have stated they should do.

The team doesn't want to add 3 rookies, which is another thing some have said they don't really want either.

But Ernie said it so it much be wrong.

No, I only apply that standard to you.

What makes EG such a tool is his statement that he doesn't want three rookies on the roster. If he can turn his three draft picks into two draft picks or even one draft pick and get better players, fine, but who are these one-percenters that really believe he's going to do that? And then he's going to surround the remainder of the roster with his usual assortment of high quality veteran minimum FAs and D-League castoffs. Because we need VETERANS!!!!!

Foxnews had it right all along, handsdown11: EG sucks and there is no god.

[GhostsOfGil]

Kev do you have updated YODA rankings now that the combine is over?

[tontoz]

I don't see anything wrong with what Ernie said. He wants to package both 2nd round picks to move up, which is something people, like me, have stated they should do.

The team doesn't want to add 3 rookies, which is another thing some have said they don't really want either.

But Ernie said it so it much be wrong.

If you were in the NBA draft your stock would definitely take a hit for stuff like this. After all intelligence is important.

[pcbothwel]

EG: "...Dont want 3 rookies on the roster"...Said it before and I'll say it again. Draft MOUHAMMADOU JAITEH in the 2nd and leave him overseas for a year (maybe 2). Let him work in the French leagues with Savvy Euros to help with the things that always impress us about Seraphin (foot work, touch with both hands, etc.). He is going to be a legit 7 footer (at least 2 inches taller than KS) and he will be one of the best rebounders in the league per 36.

1(Assuming we dont pick in top 3): Bennett/Len/Zeller (will start for a decade at PF)/ CJM
2A: Muscala/Hardaway Jr./ Franklin/ McCollum
2B: Jaiteh

[Zonkerbl]

BTW, every other team with a decent RealGM following that's in the lottery has a "Lottery Drawing" thread with about four pages of posts or whatever. Who's gonna make the dame thing already?

We're practically daring the basketball gods to kick our balls up to 10th.

It'd be a familiar feeling.

After finishing tied for 7th worst in the league (amazing when you think about the 5-28 start), I fully expect the miniscule chance we pick 10th to occur.

How many times have the Wizards won a top three pick when they finished outside the bottom three in the standings? Just 2010 right? The year we finished tied for fourth worst.

2012 we picked 3rd after finishing 2nd worst.
2011 we picked 6th after finishing 4th worst.
2009 we picked 5th after finishing tied for 2nd worst.
2004 we picked 5th after finishing 3rd worst.
2003 we picked 10th after finishing 10th.
2002 we picked 11th after finishing 11th.
2001 we picked 1st after finishing 3rd worst, yipee Kwame Brown!

That's as far as I care to look back. So we've only picked higher than we should have without the lottery twice, one of those times majorly sucked, and neither were big moves upward. Every other time we either picked at our slot or moved down. The basketball gods have taken pleasure in kicking our balls for years.

This is what the lottery is designed to do. If you are 2nd worst, you have a whopping 54% chance of getting kicked out of the top three altogether, if you are 3rd worst the chances are 60%!!!

There is an enormous penalty built into the lottery for being one of the three worst teams. It's merciless.

It means your roster sucks, sucks, sucks, and there's better than even odds that you won't even got a top three pick for your pains.

Zards this year are in the best position you can ask for. When healthy, a playoff contender, and yet they get a top ten pick, with an 11% chance of getting one of the top three. Would be nice to have tanked a few games and gotten Sacramento's 20% chances of getting a top three pick, but whatever. We tanked a little at the end of the season anyway.

[nate33]

Exactly.

The lottery is kind to those picking in the 6 to 9 range because they have a reasonable chance of jumping all the way up to the top 3, a small chance of dropping one spot, and practically no chance of dropping 2 or more spots.

Picking 1st is awful. You have nowhere to go but down. Picking in the top 2 or 3 isn't much better. The odds of dropping are far higher than the odds of rising. Picking 4 or 5 isn't so great either.

We haven't been frowned upon by the basketball gods. We merely have had the misfortune of picking in the top 5 for several years so the odds work against us.

[Ruzious]

I think the bigger problem had to do with the specific players we drafted, the existing veterans on the roster (or lack thereof), and the team's player development program (or lack thereof). This reminds me of that Grantland article recently published about how it hurts Wizards fans to see Kawhi Leonard playing so well knowing we could have drafted him, but then also pointing out that even if we drafted Leonard, he probably would have been mismanaged and his development would have suffered greatly. It's hard to defend the Vesely pick, but Singleton was honestly a solid pick, and I think he would have found a decent role on a lot of other teams. But the problem is that our coaching staff and front office was not prepared to have so many rookies, especially ones so raw and in desperate need of developmental coaching.

Singleton was not a solid pick - or even a defensible pick. It was a pick that Susan O'Malley would have made - not a professional GM. He was an error-prone player in college who was offensively impaired. His defensive stats were his only impressive stats. And considering they picked Vesely to be a SF - that's what Ernie Grunfeld said - made the Singleton pick even more confusing. Considering Faried was there and supposedly played a different position than Vesely, he was the obvious pick - and there really can't be any justifiable reason not to have picked him, imo - which several of us - not just CCJ - said at the time. Granted, most of us thought Singleton would be better than he has been, but he was still an awful pick.

Considering the wanted to establish themselves more defensively, Singleton as a 3&D was actually what several members on the board wanted at the time. Ves was projected to be a starter so it actually did make some sense. Singleton would come off the bench to defend 2 or 3 positions. Now it wasn't the player I wanted with the first or the 2nd first but I can follow the logic.

Now what would have made more sense than Faried was actually Nikola because you could see McGee wasn't the defensive post player you needed and his contract was coming due the following year. They had been looking and hoping for Kanter 6-11 260. Why not take Nikola 7-0 260

You post players at the time were. Yi - leaving, McGee - not getting it done and to light in the trunk, Kevin S - young strong project, Booker - solid athletic undersized rebounding PF prospect ( Faried ), Hilton Armstrong - gone, Dray - neck fat lap dance Tuesday, Hamady - long lean shot project.

Nikola was the no brainer more then Faried given what they had and needed.

Nikola wasn't an option at that point. He was picked before Singleton.

Again, they said at the time that Vesely was picked to play SF - Singleton's position. And Faried was every bit the defensive player that Singleton was in college and in projecting to the NBA. Some folks here wanted Singleton - but for reasons that weren't well thought out, imo.

[pancakes3]

2nd round picks are dirty cheap and you can stash them in the d-league if the roster gets too crowded. Ves is making 3mil+ which is like 6 2nd round picks worth of salary. Hell, even 3 late 1st rounders worth of picks. The problem isn't veteran talent. Wall is a veteran, Ariza/Webster are veterans. Seraphin/Nene/Okafor are veterans. Our backup guards are veterans. How much more veteran-y can our team get?

[Nivek]

Kev do you have updated YODA rankings now that the combine is over?

Haven't had time to do the full update yet. I'm hoping to get to it this afternoon. Tomorrow morning is looking more likely, though.

[closg00]

Adams.
http://zagsblog.com/articles/steven-ada ... r-combine/

[stevemcqueen1]

Exactly.

The lottery is kind to those picking in the 6 to 9 range because they have a reasonable chance of jumping all the way up to the top 3, a small chance of dropping one spot, and practically no chance of dropping 2 or more spots.

Picking 1st is awful. You have nowhere to go but down. Picking in the top 2 or 3 isn't much better. The odds of dropping are far higher than the odds of rising. Picking 4 or 5 isn't so great either.

We haven't been frowned upon by the basketball gods. We merely have had the misfortune of picking in the top 5 for several years so the odds work against us.

The lottery is a ridiculous system then. I understand there is this great fear of tanking in the NBA since they play so many games. But the lottery doesn't prevent tanking in practice. A bigger problem for the NBA is the un-competitiveness compared to all of the other sports. And the lottery is one of the factors that keep the worst teams awful for a long time.

It's enough to drive a man to drink. Except the Wizards have given us a ton of other reasons to drink already.

Ok, so let's assume for a moment that the basketball gods favor us this year and we win the first pick,

- What do we do at #1?
- What do we do at #2?
- What do we do at #3?

To me, those are really hard questions. I'd say be safe and go BPA. But who are the BPAs?

[GhostsOfGil]

My pics:
Top 3: Noel, Porter, Oladipo
8-10 Range: Bennett, Len, Zeller, Olynyk

[nate33]

I don't mind the lottery system much. I think it's good enough that those among the bottom six or seven teams get a much better chance at acquiring a star caliber player than a playoff team. I see no compelling reason why the absolute worst team in the league should get a significantly better chance at improving than, say, the 4th-worst team.

The lottery system rewards mediocrity, but doesn't necessarily reward flat out ineptitude. I like that.