2020 Draft

[Jimmy Recard]

I think, assuming he’s still there when we pick, you take Haliburton and call it a day. If he goes earlier than our pick, I wouldn’t be against Tommy trading down.

[gambitx777]

...I can't believe you asked that question it's so ridiculous.... Hard to know what to say.

My apologies for that remark, Gambit -- that's not a very respectful or friendly tone -- give me a pass, please; I'll be a bit more thoughtful next time through! Thanks!!

It's all good piff I don't take offence !

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[gambitx777]

If Wiseman is there at 9. Do you pass him up?

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[dckingsfan]

So, the NBA has postponed the Draft Lottery and Combine... over under that the June 25 draft date get's postponed?

[payitforward]

I think, assuming he’s still there when we pick, you take Haliburton and call it a day. If he goes earlier than our pick, I wouldn’t be against Tommy trading down.

Everybody knows I like to trade down in most cases, but I agree about this -- I would grab Haliburton & be happy.

Of course, we also have the #38 -- I would love to get Tyler Bey, & if it took buying the #33 from Elton Brand to do so, then I wouldn't hesitate.

[DCZards]

If Wiseman is there at 9. Do you pass him up?

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No way I pass on Wiseman if he's there at 9...but I expect him to be one of the top 5 picks. The guy I'm hoping is really there for the Zards is Okongwu. But I think he'll go in the top 6-7.

[payitforward]

If Wiseman is there at 9. Do you pass him up?

No way I pass on Wiseman if he's there at 9...but I expect him to be one of the top 5 picks. The guy I'm hoping is really there for the Zards is Okongwu. But I think he'll go in the top 6-7.

I agree about Wiseman -- & Okongwu -- along with Haliburton. It wouild be hard to pass on any of those 3. But... it won't be an issue; they will be gone.

[gambitx777]

I agree but I have a feeling this draft will be a weird one. All the covid stuff the strangeness. I see some odd stuff happening.

If Wiseman is there at 9. Do you pass him up?

No way I pass on Wiseman if he's there at 9...but I expect him to be one of the top 5 picks. The guy I'm hoping is really there for the Zards is Okongwu. But I think he'll go in the top 6-7.

I agree about Wiseman -- & Okongwu -- along with Haliburton. It wouild be hard to pass on any of those 3. But... it won't be an issue; they will be gone.

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[Ruzious]

So, the NBA has postponed the Draft Lottery and Combine... over under that the June 25 draft date get's postponed?

Seems weird to me that the NFl was able to handle their entire 7 round draft without a hitch, and the NBA can't even handle the draft lottery.

[Ruzious]

While I generally agree with the wisdom of teams possibly trading out of the lottery in exchange for a couple of picks later in the first round, I have a hard time recalling when, or if, any NBA team has traded out of the lottery—or into the lottery. (Someone else here may recall that happening at some point.)

Are NBA teams reluctant to trade a lottery pick out of fear that they may be passing up on all-NBA player in exchange for 2 or 3 good, but not great, players? Maybe NBA teams have charts and research showing that staying in the lottery trumps moving out of it, even for 2-3 additional first round picks. These charts might usurp or contradict the Pelton chart in the view of some NBA teams.

Or maybe teams aren't willing to trade two first round picks--even for a lottery pick.

I don't know the answer to these questions but it does seem like teams rarely (or never) trade out of the lottery.

Well... if someone's going to trade in, someone's gotta trade out!

You are right that it doesn't happen regularly. OTOH, we did it in 2015. No... actually we traded up to the #15 pick -- #14 being the last lottery pick. We also traded out of the lottery in 2016 -- tho for a journeyman player (at best) not a lower pick.

As to "charts," the research that went into Pelton's chart is the same kind that would go into any team's chart -- everyone has the same data to work with & the same software to use. I'm sure that any two such projects would differ in some small degree (in fact, Pelton did 3 different iterations of his chart based on re-evaluation of what draft picks' second contracts were worth), but they are bound to be pretty close to one another (as Pelton's 3 charts were). & as all of these efforts would be based on publicly available history, there's no "secret sauce" available to GMs. Given their overall low level of performance, I'm sure they wish there was.

One thing you mention that is certainly a factor is "fear." People who manage business processes, whether it's basketball, bananas or b-whatever, are commonly motivated in part by fear. We've known this for as long as we've had the phrase "organization man." In basketball, look what happened to Sam Hinkie even though he completely transformed a moribund franchise in 3.5 years. On the other end of the spectrum, look how long Ernie Grunfeld had a job despite demonstrable incompetence -- he never rocked the boat. GMs came & went all around the league while he collected paycheck after paycheck.

Another way to say that is that if you trade a high pick for 2 lower picks, everybody will be looking to see how you did with that move. Whereas, if you simply make the high pick instead, then there are a zillion ways to bury your mistake (another thing at which Ernie was a past master!).

When I do my analysis & say we should trade "c" for "f & g," I put nothing on the line but my reputation as a talent picker on a discussion board. Not much to risk! What that means is that I can be objective in my analysis, I don't have to put a safety factor on one side of the scale. & if I'm right most of the time, I look good (mostly in the mirror... ). & if I'm wrong once or twice, everyone but Ruz forgets about it!

OTOH, if you are a GM, what you are trying to do is get to the other side of the street across heavy traffic -- you can be right most of the time & still get run over!

Yet... the facts remain the facts: in 2015 Jahlil Okafor went 29 picks before Montrezl Harrell, Mario Hezonja went 35 picks before Josh Richardson. Emmanuel Mudiay went 34 picks before Pat Connaughton. Frank Kaminsky went 28 picks before Richaun Holmes. Stanley Johnson went 24 picks before Cedi Osman. Willie Cauley-Stein went 25 picks before Kevon Looney. Trey Lyles went 17 picks before Larry Nance. Justise Winslow went a bunch before Delon Wright, D'Angelo Russell went 15 picks before Terry Rozier, & Cameron Payne... well, no need to be mean!

Who does that leave? KAT, Porzingis, Turner & Booker.

Had I traded the #9 for the #s20 & 22 that year -- what I proposed doing last year -- how many players do I miss a chance at who turn out better than, say, either Delon Wright or Larry Nance? I count only one, Devin Booker. Some people might add Myles Turner, but I'd say Nance is better. & anyway, I could push the point by saying Montrezl Harrell.

It's the same pretty much every year. Both Brandon Clarke & Matisse Thybulle are better than Rui Hachimura. A lot better so far, & it won't be different until it really is.

It's going to be that way this year as well; at least it's very likely to be. That is, I'm sure there's an exception somewhere in past drafts -- but I can't find it!

Most of the players you single out as being quality players and smart picks (like Wright, Holmes) have indeed been solid contributors to their teams

But other than Rozier and, maybe, Richardson and Harrell, these guys are backups and role players. I think most NBA teams are willing to miss out on a role player…like a Nance, Osman or Looney…in order to stay in the lottery and take a chance at drafting an all-star like KAT or Booker…or even a Porzingis, Turner or Russell.

And the thing about a great pick like Harrell... even after his rookie contract was over, he just got a very modest 2nd contract of 2 years at 6 mil a year. Apparently, there wasn't more than 1 team that valued him as a very good player at that point.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Trade down.

Draft Jalen Smith.

Draft another plus rebounder.

The Wizards are going to be a playoff team next season.

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[dckingsfan]

So, the NBA has postponed the Draft Lottery and Combine... over under that the June 25 draft date get's postponed?

Seems weird to me that the NFl was able to handle their entire 7 round draft without a hitch, and the NBA can't even handle the draft lottery.

Yeah, I think they are still trying to figure it out... I think they are unnecessarily complicating things with the re-start of the season.

The 2020 NBA Draft could take place sometime in late August or early September, league sources told Marc Berman of the New York Post.

Agents are also being told that there could be a small scale combine in August, complete with a live interview process.

The draft lottery currently remains postponed, with the league keeping their options on how to proceed with the season open into June.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/258124/Draft-Could-Take-Place-In-Late-August-Or-Early-September-With-Small-Scale-Combine-In-August

[payitforward]

So, the NBA has postponed the Draft Lottery and Combine... over under that the June 25 draft date get's postponed?

Seems weird to me that the NFl was able to handle their entire 7 round draft without a hitch, and the NBA can't even handle the draft lottery.

You know... we went many decades w/o anything like a Combine. This kind of news makes me think next season is in doubt. Maybe "doubt" isn't a strong enough word....

[dckingsfan]

So, the NBA has postponed the Draft Lottery and Combine... over under that the June 25 draft date get's postponed?

Seems weird to me that the NFl was able to handle their entire 7 round draft without a hitch, and the NBA can't even handle the draft lottery.

You know... we went many decades w/o anything like a Combine. This kind of news makes me think next season is in doubt. Maybe "doubt" isn't a strong enough word....

Yep, pretty much about entertainment. Draft lottery - an awkward kind of entertainment. Draft combine - who doesn't love those number right? Draft - nothing like NY booing their pick. And of course the advanced metrics and video and debates.

Way too much fun...

[Ruzious]

I guess they were right to postpone it, because until the regular season is officially over, the pingpong balls can change.

[payitforward]

It's weird, but somehow the draft being postponed depresses me more than the season being canceled!

[gambitx777]

In theory you can have the loto any where out of a week of the draft . Just give teams a week or two to talk


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[Jamaaliver]

Read on Twitter

[doclinkin]

At the top of the draft I'd like Okongwu. A defensively aware high-motor front court player who reacts quickly and gets up the floor in both directions. He'd be a good fit running with a Wall Squad and with spacing from Beal and Bertans he will be dangerous inside the arc when players overload the perimeter.

But I'd be confident if I could get two of:

Vernon Carey -- underrated freshman Big, who has savvy heads-up feel for the game and is a battering ram on offense. Has defensive positional instincts that most young bigs take forever to learn.

Tyler Bey -- Adding a multi-tool SF who can defend the perimeter and inside the arc. His defensive wetware was operating with faster bandwidth than any of his opponents in college. Quick up and down, finishing with the lob or in the open court, adding range to his game, hard worker with upside. I expect his outside shot to improve with our shooting coaches.

Xavier Tillman --smart tough Big. Leader with defensive smarts and passing chops from the top of the Key, added a three point shot this range. Veteran experience allows quicker adjustment to the league.

Adding IQ, love of the game, toughness, hard work, would make this team a tough out. We need great talent, but some years if you can't snatch the transcendent athlete but instead add attitude and savvy and self motivation you set a foundation for long term success and constant improvement.

[nate33]

At the top of the draft I'd like Okongwu. A defensively aware high-motor front court player who reacts quickly and gets up the floor in both directions. He'd be a good fit running with a Wall Squad and with spacing from Beal and Bertans he will be dangerous inside the arc when players overload the perimeter.

But I'd be confident if I could get two of:

Vernon Carey -- underrated freshman Big, who has savvy heads-up feel for the game and is a battering ram on offense. Has defensive positional instincts that most young bigs take forever to learn.

Tyler Bey -- defensive wetware operating with faster bandwidth than any of his opponents in college. Quick up and down, finsiing with the lob or in the open court, adding range to his game, hard worker with upside.

Xavier Tillman --smart tough Big. Leader with defensive smarts and passing chops from the top of the Key, added a three point shot this range. Veteran experience allows quicker adjustment to the league.

Adding IQ, love of the game, toughness, hard work, would make this team a tough out. We need great talent, but some years if you can't snatch the transcendent athlete but instead add attitude and savvy and self motivation you set a foundation for long term success and constant improvement.

Agreed. Okongwu is really the only guy that interests me at the top of this draft.