Deni Avdija

[prime1time]

Just wondering, how do posters justify holding Avdija to such different standards than previous Wizard draft picks? In addition, people insist on talking about how his performance so far this year is too small of a sample size to claim anything. On a side note, funny how it's not to small of a sample size to talk about his improved defense but that's a different conversation. At what point will the sample size be large enough to start discussing not just Avdija's lack of improvement but his regression shooting the ball.

[dckingsfan]

What are you basing this off of? Avdija is not a good shooter is struggling, he's a bad shooter who's never had success in any professional setting shoooting the ball.
2018/2019 - Advija was 42/82 from the ft line 51.2%
2019/2020 - Avdija was 67/114 from the ft line 58%
2020/2021 - Avdija was 29/45 64% from the ft line
2021/2022 - Avdija was 12/22 54.5%

The optimism on this board regarding Avdija's shooting is laughable. I challenge someone to find a player who became a good shooter that a history of struggling shooting the ball as much as Avdija has.



Teams have been leaving already leaving Advija open and he has been missing them. No one is running this kind of shooter off the 3-point line. Why are people just throwing out rational thinking when it comes to Avdija? Over 263 ft's at 57%. At what point is it fair to say that Avdija will likely never develop a jumpshot.



And here in lies the rub. As good as Advija may be and as much as Advija can contribute by being a facilitator and an above-average defender, we would be better if he could shoot. In light of Advija's struggles shooting, I think it's fair to say that we are still looking for a long term solution at SF. And for people who say he's only 20, we moved on from Troy Brown Jr at 21 and Brown Jr is a career 75% FT shooter. 18% points higher than Avdija...

Pretty weak argument if your own data point has shown career progression (this season is way to small of a sample to add on to that).

I mean the season he has will speak for himself. My goal in life isn't to convince you lol. Believe what you want, but I think this board is severely hurt by posters that pick and choose how they view players based on their on personal feelings rather than cold hard data. Deni's 64% from the ft line was worse than rookie Rui, worse than rookie Wall, worse than rookie Beal, worse than rookie TBJr and worse than rookie Otto Porter. We could go back to those threads and read what was read what was said about each respective player.

My only point is that posters should so intellectual consistency. If you hold rookie Rui to one standard or rookie Troy Brown Jr to one standard. Then hold Deni to the same standard. There are massive battles in this thread where I show how Rui actually showed progress shooting the ball. Yet, posters tell me he's nowhere near being a good enough shooter.

Yet I come in this thread, and Deni is shooting under 30% from 3 and this thread is rife with optimism and hope. This is called logical inconsitency. One of the posters that I clash with the most - payitforward - I actually respect the most because the way he evaluates players is consistent. With many posters they just decide who they like and they evaluate things through a rose-colored lens.

Answer me this, what do you think the chances are that Deni Avdija - our top 10 pick - is our long-term answer at SF? If when we drafted Avdija you were told that 64 games into his professional career he was a 31.2% 3 point shooter (with his 3-point attempts decreasing from year 1 to year 2) and a 61% ft shooter would you be happy and ecstatic? If Rui or Wall or Beal or Otto or TBJr had the same percentages through the same amount of games played, would you be ecstatic?

Can we change the question to "long-term answer at PF"? He seems to rebound like a PF (although I have been somewhat disabused of this notion), guards opposing PFs pretty well and is a "low usage" player to go with our high usage guards and Cs.

The answer I would give is that I think he could be part of the Forward rotation going forward.

BTW, I may have derailed the thread a bit... my comment should have been: If and when he begins hitting open shots...

[tontoz]

Just wondering, how do posters justify holding Avdija to such different standards than previous Wizard draft picks? In addition, people insist on talking about how his performance so far this year is too small of a sample size to claim anything. On a side note, funny how it's not to small of a sample size to talk about his improved defense but that's a different conversation. At what point will the sample size be large enough to start discussing not just Avdija's lack of improvement but his regression shooting the ball.

I am not sure if Deni's defense has really improved. I thought he was good last year and nate pointed out the rules change has worked in his favor.

In terms of sample size it is easier to judge defense than shooting. He has to play defense on almost every opponent possession. With shooting he doesn't shoot much so it is going to take a bigger sample to notice any trends. He has taken 21 3s and 22 fts so far this season.

The layup thing has been annoying and needs to change in a hurry.

[arusinov]

Just wondering, how do posters justify holding Avdija to such different standards than previous Wizard draft picks? In addition, people insist on talking about how his performance so far this year is too small of a sample size to claim anything. On a side note, funny how it's not to small of a sample size to talk about his improved defense but that's a different conversation. At what point will the sample size be large enough to start discussing not just Avdija's lack of improvement but his regression shooting the ball.

I am not sure if Deni's defense has really improved. I thought he was good last year and nate pointed out the rules change has worked in his favor.

In terms of sample size it is easier to judge defense than shooting. He has to play defense on almost every opponent possession. With shooting he doesn't shoot much so it is going to take a bigger sample to notice any trends. He has taken 21 3s and 22 fts so far this season.

The layup thing has been annoying and needs to change in a hurry.

His defense improved... somewhat - but it was mostly good previous season too. He gets much less bad calls against him - both because officiating this season generally allow more physical defense and because he's not rookie anymore.

He also showcases it more as he's given important defensive assignments consistently more or less every game.

Speaking about finishing - he's just one month back from relatively significant injury. If he continues to get consistent minutes the problems will be over in month or two. He's naturally rather good finisher...

Shooting on other hand... with this thing we can only hope

[payitforward]

...One of the posters that I clash with the most - payitforward - I actually respect the most because the way he evaluates players is consistent....

Aawww... I'm blushing. I'm embarrassed. Shucks.... Now, everybody, read those words, & get with the program! Especially you, guy-who-is-reading-now, you know who you are!

(Thanks prime... & back at you!)

[payitforward]

Just wondering, how do posters justify holding Avdija to such different standards than previous Wizard draft picks?...

It's not about "draft picks." It's about players. This year, Deni is playing at a high level overall.

Everything you do as a player counts, not just scoring. & how good you are is a function of the overall level you reach, calculated based on all the things you do. & because basketball is quantitative at its basis -- everything aims at a single result, the final score -- all it takes is some educated work with statistical software to produce pretty reliable results for each player's impact on final scores (i.e. on wins).

Of course, that will never give you a perfect version of reality, because interdependencies do have a meaningful influence on any individual's results. But you don't let yourself be over-influenced by that -- as they say, "the perfect is the enemy of the good."

As to scoring, obviously, every made shot makes Deni a little bit better player, & every missed shot makes him a little bit worse. So, yeah, we want him to make more shots. We also want him to raise those averages on higher usage. But... we want that for every player! Of course! You still have to figure out how good a guy is overall, based on all the significant activities -- rebounds, assists, steals, TOs, fouls -- & anything else you can observe, measure quantitatively, & figure out as to its impact.

In Deni's case, he's getting almost 55% more defensive boards than an average NBA SF. He's getting almost 75% more offensive rebounds than an average NBA SF. He's blocking 3 times as many shots as an average SF. &... he's playing extremely solid defense.

The single most important thing about those numbers is that they are so much better than last year!

...In addition, people insist on talking about how his performance so far this year is too small of a sample size to claim anything....

This has nothing to do with Deni. If a guy does something for 200 minutes, you don't make the claim that he's proven he's going to do it the rest of his career.

...funny how it's not to small of a sample size to talk about his improved defense....

Of course it's too small a sample size for that! No one can conclude anything final about Deni at this point -- good or bad.

...At what point will the sample size be large enough to start discussing not just Avdija's lack of improvement but his regression shooting the ball.

We are discussing it.

[dckingsfan]

...

Might be onto something about Deni and confidence - 16 minutes no shots...

[closg00]

...

Might be onto something about Deni and confidence - 16 minutes no shots...

Re: Deni, he's not a baby, grow a pair or go play in Europe, we can't have a wing who doesn't have a full NBA skill-set at his position, it's not as-if he his taking a lot of attempts and missing...study Luka or something...

[dckingsfan]

...

Might be onto something about Deni and confidence - 16 minutes no shots...

Re: Deni, he's not a baby, grow a pair or go play in Europe, we can't have a wing who doesn't have a full NBA skill-set at his position, it's not as-if he his taking a lot of attempts and missing...study Luka or something...

Not understanding what you are saying? Are you saying he should go back to Europe to learn to shoot?

[badinage]

...

Might be onto something about Deni and confidence - 16 minutes no shots...

Re: Deni, he's not a baby, grow a pair or go play in Europe, we can't have a wing who doesn't have a full NBA skill-set at his position, it's not as-if he his taking a lot of attempts and missing...study Luka or something...

What the he11?

The animus. The bewilderment.

(And why the hyphens in strange places?)

We can’t have this. No. No no. Maybe if we were a better team — but alas, we are, sigh, only 8-3 and standing atop a resurgent Eastern Conference, the talk of the association and all of D.C. And this with a team that is half newcomers and with a new and first-time coach. A team many — including the players themselves — expected to get off to a slow start.

And to call him a wing is to miss who and what he is. He’s sometimes a 3, but more often a 4. Witness his D on JJJ in the Memphis game. His D on Giannis in the Milwaukee game. His future is as a crafty, sharp-passing, playmaking 4.

3 and D is a nice classification — except when it doesn’t apply. And it doesn’t, here.

This franchise has had a depressingly long history of maximizing players’ shortcoming, of trying to turn players into something other than they are.

I would worry that we are destined to repeat that once again with an immensely promising young player, were it not for the fact that in Junior we have (finally!) a coach who can work with the good (and the great) and minimize the not-good.

(Not-good: appropriate use of hyphens.)

[dckingsfan]

[Dolevi]

He does need to shoot the ball sometimes, being aggressive and assartive, don't give up ball so quickly and be scared of it. It is very noticable. It's a problem. Even if he's 4. No way Deni finishes a game with 0/0 FG... Coach couldn't take it anymore and brought him back to the bench at the 3rd till the rest of the game because of his passiveness. At least try and miss, nobody will kill you. Look at Kuz. He can go at night for 0/10 but he keeps shooting the ball to the basket. Everyone at a random night can get their shots.. Kuz, Harrell, Neto, Beal, Kispert, Spencer (and i can continue), just Deni not. If Deni ends up a game with at least 5 FGA it's like a ******* christmas holiday and a rare event. It's clear it is a confidence issue, and it looks like no one helping him with it (or him himself just scared).

I love his defense and rebounds (though against the Cavs even his defense wasn't good), but dude you gotta try make plays at offense. Being ready to be out there for the team if no one make buckets. If not, he will get less and less minutes.

[tontoz]

With shooting he doesn't shoot much so it is going to take a bigger sample to notice any trends. He has taken 21 3s and 22 fts so far this season.

The layup thing has been annoying and needs to change in a hurry.

Last night shows what i am talking about with sample size. He took three 3s, bringing his total to 24 attempts this season. He made 2 of them, bring his percentage on the season up to 33%.

We can't make a reliable judgement on his shooting with a sample size that small.

[gambitx777]

#1 I love hearing some of this "we need a guy who's not afraid to shoot, he needs to not pass so much, blah blah blah" from the same people who wanted to trade for Ben Simmons.

That being said I'm happy with deni he's playing great defence, he's helping the team win. Last game he went 2-3 from 3 if he can gain some confidence and put some quality bench scoring together he could take a huge leap but it's his 2ed year and I'm happy with his progress. I hope we get more good 3 point nights out of him.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[FAH1223]

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[tontoz]

11/10 from Deni and some tough D on Ingram, shooting 5-6 from the field. Key player in a big comeback win.

[prime1time]

Nothing better than seeing a player prove you wrong. Very impressed by Avdija in the last 2 or 3 games. As for how things will shake out once everyone is healthy, that is anyone's guess.

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

[nate33]

[closg00]

Might be onto something about Deni and confidence - 16 minutes no shots...

Re: Deni, he's not a baby, grow a pair or go play in Europe, we can't have a wing who doesn't have a full NBA skill-set at his position, it's not as-if he his taking a lot of attempts and missing...study Luka or something...

What the he11?

The animus. The bewilderment.

(And why the hyphens in strange places?)

We can’t have this. No. No no. Maybe if we were a better team — but alas, we are, sigh, only 8-3 and standing atop a resurgent Eastern Conference, the talk of the association and all of D.C. And this with a team that is half newcomers and with a new and first-time coach. A team many — including the players themselves — expected to get off to a slow start.

And to call him a wing is to miss who and what he is. He’s sometimes a 3, but more often a 4. Witness his D on JJJ in the Memphis game. His D on Giannis in the Milwaukee game. His future is as a crafty, sharp-passing, playmaking 4.

3 and D is a nice classification — except when it doesn’t apply. And it doesn’t, here.

This franchise has had a depressingly long history of maximizing players’ shortcoming, of trying to turn players into something other than they are.

I would worry that we are destined to repeat that once again with an immensely promising young player, were it not for the fact that in Junior we have (finally!) a coach who can work with the good (and the great) and minimize the not-good.

(Not-good: appropriate use of hyphens.)

You seem more concerned about hyphens than about my legitimate point about Deni's fear of shooting. I mentioned several times in the threads that I like his D, that does not make him immune from criticism does it? SO, I will make the same point and hope that the offense side of his game will be improved through coaching and his own desire to improve.

My specific bone of contention:

Deni often passes up catch-and-shoot opportunities and will instead attempt to drive into defenders and ultimately dish, this is something he did as-well during his time playing in Israel That being said, he does find ways to score around the basket, but he doesn't (currently), like to stroke the ball like a wing. Just an observation, calm-down, otherwise I will be forced to unnecessarily use hyphens again.