2021 Draft thread. Woo! 15th pick here we come! Hoo. Ray.

[nate33]

Tankathon top 9:

1. Mobley
2. Suggs
3. Cunningham
4. Green
5. Kuminga
6. Johnson
7. Barnes
8. Kispert
9. Wagner

I still think Sengun should be up there. One factoid I found interesting - looking at his team's box score, I saw James Blackmon - former star at Indiana. He's a good 3 and D player - at 6'5, 210. At 25, he's got time for a good NBA career.

He's next, at 10th.

[nate33]

What makes Mitchell a poor offensive player? Are we talking about Davion Mitchell from Baylor?

Yes. Davion Mitchell.

I don't think he has the burst to get to the rim at the NBA level. He might be an efficient low-usage offensive player in the George Hill mold, but he doesn't look to me like he has the capability to drive an NBA offense as the primary ball handler. A PG who can't do that, I consider to be a below average PG offensively. He'll be best playing alongside a big ball-handling wing like Harden, Doncic or Giannis who is the primary defense bender. In that role, he might be awesome.

[NatP4]

What makes Mitchell a poor offensive player? Are we talking about Davion Mitchell from Baylor?

Yes. Davion Mitchell.

I don't think he has the burst to get to the rim at the NBA level. He might be an efficient low-usage offensive player in the George Hill mold, but he doesn't look to me like he has the capability to drive an NBA offense as the primary ball handler. A PG who can't do that, I consider to be a below average PG offensively. He'll be best playing alongside a big ball-handling wing like Harden, Doncic or Giannis who is the primary defense bender. In that role, he might be awesome.

Yeah, Mitchell is almost 23 on draft night. He’s an upperclassman succeeding on a loaded Baylor team playing in a complimentary role to Jared Butler.

I think he’ll be a solid bench combo guard that can create a shot and be a plus on defense. Not a lottery level talent. Late 1st at best.

[Ruzious]

What makes Mitchell a poor offensive player? Are we talking about Davion Mitchell from Baylor?

Yes. Davion Mitchell.

I don't think he has the burst to get to the rim at the NBA level. He might be an efficient low-usage offensive player in the George Hill mold, but he doesn't look to me like he has the capability to drive an NBA offense as the primary ball handler. A PG who can't do that, I consider to be a below average PG offensively. He'll be best playing alongside a big ball-handling wing like Harden, Doncic or Giannis who is the primary defense bender. In that role, he might be awesome.

Yeah, Mitchell is almost 23 on draft night. He’s an upperclassman succeeding on a loaded Baylor team playing in a complimentary role to Jared Butler.

I think he’ll be a solid bench combo guard that can create a shot and be a plus on defense. Not a lottery level talent. Late 1st at best.

I see him as prime Patrick Beverly with a better jump shot - which is a guy who's going to help his team win a lot of games but probably won't make a lot of money.

[prime1time]

Yes. Davion Mitchell.

I don't think he has the burst to get to the rim at the NBA level. He might be an efficient low-usage offensive player in the George Hill mold, but he doesn't look to me like he has the capability to drive an NBA offense as the primary ball handler. A PG who can't do that, I consider to be a below average PG offensively. He'll be best playing alongside a big ball-handling wing like Harden, Doncic or Giannis who is the primary defense bender. In that role, he might be awesome.

Yeah, Mitchell is almost 23 on draft night. He’s an upperclassman succeeding on a loaded Baylor team playing in a complimentary role to Jared Butler.

I think he’ll be a solid bench combo guard that can create a shot and be a plus on defense. Not a lottery level talent. Late 1st at best.

I see him as prime Patrick Beverly with a better jump shot - which is a guy who's going to help his team win a lot of games but probably won't make a lot of money.

What does that even mean? Beverly is a career 38.3% 3-point shooter and has been on 3 All-NBA defensive teams. You expect Mitchell to surpass that offensively and equal that defensively? Shooting wise that would mean Mitchell's a career 40% plus from 3. There's nothing wrong with having these expectations, but just be ready to defend them in the future if things don't pan out.

[doclinkin]

Yes. Davion Mitchell.

I don't think he has the burst to get to the rim at the NBA level. He might be an efficient low-usage offensive player in the George Hill mold, but he doesn't look to me like he has the capability to drive an NBA offense as the primary ball handler. A PG who can't do that, I consider to be a below average PG offensively. He'll be best playing alongside a big ball-handling wing like Harden, Doncic or Giannis who is the primary defense bender. In that role, he might be awesome.

Yeah, Mitchell is almost 23 on draft night. He’s an upperclassman succeeding on a loaded Baylor team playing in a complimentary role to Jared Butler.

I think he’ll be a solid bench combo guard that can create a shot and be a plus on defense. Not a lottery level talent. Late 1st at best.

I see him as prime Patrick Beverly with a better jump shot - which is a guy who's going to help his team win a lot of games but probably won't make a lot of money.

Thus a bargain for a team trying to scrap for wins with a max contract guy eating up much of the cap. This was my point in another thread (I think). The Wiz should be looking for market inefficiencies. Guys who are not 'stars' who help you win disproportionate to how they are paid.

Defense and rebounding are two stat markers that are under compensated but have a major effect on your win totals. If you can get a guy high up who is a star, granted that is the biggest chance you have at a franchise changing player. Suck in the right year and you can be set for a dynasty.

Absent that, when you slip, I feel like you should trade back while collecting tickets for future picks. And instead of flashy scoring totals, pick the guy who will a) be undervalued according to the market and b) help you win. The win metrics for me are most often a confluence of defensive rebounding, assists from non ballhandling positions, and free throw shooting. (Minus turnovers or high foul rates). These are glue guys who will teach good habits to whatever young talent you are developing next to them. Show me guys who show steady progress as well if they stayed in school. These players will often give you good value for that first contract, and have a work ethic that assumes desire to win more than personal glory. The defensive guys will produce, but not cost a great deal when they are renewed. They are useful trading assets, who help while you are grinding along. All else being equal I also look for length relative to their position, since that makes team defense easier.

I'd also look at c) young players who are productive, even if not flashy. The earlier a guy is producing, the higher his upside. But this team does not have the team in place at the top to develop young players, or a winning record for them to learn winning habits, so for now that is a risk.

In a trade down, if I can pick up a useful asset now (the Seth Curry and Dallas picks package for #9 last year for instance) then I take it since it makes it easier to be patient waiting on that future pick to ripen. And when possible I will prefer picks from a 'Win Now' team who relies heavily on one or two starters, especially veterans.

In this draft, looking at the top 10, if I didn't luck out to jump to the top 4 but could trade back and came out with Neemias Queta plus Jared Butler/Davion Mitchell package (or some mix plus future picks, current prospects) I'd be alright with that.

Knicks, Rockets, OKC have a pair of picks that the mocks suggest would net you whichever of those two your deep stats say you like best.

[Ruzious]

Yeah, Mitchell is almost 23 on draft night. He’s an upperclassman succeeding on a loaded Baylor team playing in a complimentary role to Jared Butler.

I think he’ll be a solid bench combo guard that can create a shot and be a plus on defense. Not a lottery level talent. Late 1st at best.

I see him as prime Patrick Beverly with a better jump shot - which is a guy who's going to help his team win a lot of games but probably won't make a lot of money.

What does that even mean? Beverly is a career 38.3% 3-point shooter and has been on 3 All-NBA defensive teams. You expect Mitchell to surpass that offensively and equal that defensively? Shooting wise that would mean Mitchell's a career 40% plus from 3. There's nothing wrong with having these expectations, but just be ready to defend them in the future if things don't pan out.

Ok, I should have said a better offensive player. But it's too simplistic to only look at the shooting percentage to determine who's a good 3 point shooter. Of course a guy who's only job on offense is to shoot 3's will shoot a higher percentage than others. Otherwise, guys like Tony Snell and Wes Matthews would be considered among the great 3 point shooters in the game. Their only job on offense is to shoot open 3's. They shoot higher percentages than guys like Beal and Doncic, so they must be better at it - no. Beverly's played on great offensive teams - Houston teams with Harden, LAC teams with Paul and Griffin in their primes, and more recently with Leonard and George. Of course he got tons of open 3 point looks, but I don't think that makes him an impressive 3 point shooter.

[NatP4]

Fully agree, Doc. Some trade back prospects that I love are: Duarte, Butler, Queta, and Ayayi. Tre Mann is also starting to grow on me. McKinley Wright has been extremely impressive this year. Quentin Grimes continues to fly under the radar, has a chance to shoot up the boards as the tournament continues. Springer had a very underwhelming finish to his freshman season, have cooled off a ton with him. More of a late lotto/12-18 range guy.

My favorite prospects are clear at this point:

Suggs, Mobley, Wagner, Duarte, Butler, Queta, Ayayi

[NatP4]

The Knicks are sitting at the 15,20, and 33 draft slots. OKC is sitting at 10,18, and 31.

I’m keeping an eye on that.

According to tankathon mock:
10: Franz Wagner
15/18: Jared Butler OR Chris Duarte OR Neemius Queta
31: Joel Ayayi

All of that would be better than someone like Kuminga or Green and it’s not even close. I’m not sure if those would be realistic trades. I always have trouble with weighing draft pick value in trade back scenarios.

I believe NOP traded down from 4 to 8,17, and 35 plus another future 1st a few years ago.

[DCZards]

The Knicks are sitting at the 15,20, and 33 draft slots. OKC is sitting at 10,18, and 31.

I’m keeping an eye on that.

According to tankathon mock:
10: Franz Wagner
15/18: Jared Butler OR Chris Duarte OR Neemius Queta
31: Joel Ayayi

All of that would be better than someone like Kuminga or Green and it’s not even close. I’m not sure if those would be realistic trades. I always have trouble with weighing draft pick value in trade back scenarios.

I believe NOP traded down from 4 to 8,17, and 35 plus another future 1st a few years ago.

I'd trade down for those picks over taking Kuminga...but I wouldn't if Green was available. He's gonna be special.

[nate33]

I always have trouble with weighing draft pick value in trade back scenarios.

Here's a chart developed by Kevin Pelton

http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2.

We won't land pick #5. Assuming we land #6, it's worth 2110 points. That's good enough to trade back for #10 (1720 points plus #31 (360 points)

[DCZards]

If we're talking great perimeter defenders don't leave out Sydney Moncrief and Walt "Clyde" Frazier.

Both could defend AND carry a team offensively.

The argument was whether or not a defensive guard/wing with below average offensive ability (like Mitchell) could be considered a "star". I said no. CCJ says yes.

You are right that Moncrief and Frazier were elite defenders. But they also needed superb offense to be considered stars.

My bad. But, hey, it gave me an opportunity to shout two of my favorite NBA players ever.

[NatP4]

I always have trouble with weighing draft pick value in trade back scenarios.

Here's a chart developed by Kevin Pelton

http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2.

We won't land pick #5. Assuming we land #6, it's worth 2110 points. That's good enough to trade back for #10 (1720 points plus #31 (360 points)

Interesting, I’m having trouble finding draft pick trades that fit into this chart.

That Pelicans/Hawks trade is nowhere close.

[Ruzious]

If we're talking great perimeter defenders don't leave out Sydney Moncrief and Walt "Clyde" Frazier.

Both could defend AND carry a team offensively.

The argument was whether or not a defensive guard/wing with below average offensive ability (like Mitchell) could be considered a "star". I said no. CCJ says yes.

You are right that Moncrief and Frazier were elite defenders. But they also needed superb offense to be considered stars.

My bad. But, hey, it gave me an opportunity to shout two of my favorite NBA players ever.

Syd really was magnificent. One player who played a little with him in Milwaukee that never really got the adulation he deserved for his defense was Alvin Robertson (no relation to ex-Buck Oscar). For his career, he averaged 2.7 steals per game. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/roberal01.html

[DCZards]

The argument was whether or not a defensive guard/wing with below average offensive ability (like Mitchell) could be considered a "star". I said no. CCJ says yes.

You are right that Moncrief and Frazier were elite defenders. But they also needed superb offense to be considered stars.

My bad. But, hey, it gave me an opportunity to shout two of my favorite NBA players ever.

Syd really was magnificent. One player who played a little with him in Milwaukee that never really got the adulation he deserved for his defense was Alvin Robertson (no relation to ex-Buck Oscar). For his career, he averaged 2.7 steals per game. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/roberal01.html

Love, love, love Alvin Robertson. Hard-nosed dude! Had some good years with the Spurs before joining the Bucs.

[doclinkin]

I always have trouble with weighing draft pick value in trade back scenarios.

Here's a chart developed by Kevin Pelton

http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2.

We won't land pick #5. Assuming we land #6, it's worth 2110 points. That's good enough to trade back for #10 (1720 points plus #31 (360 points)

I think that is true, I also think if you were trading further back with another team and taking the guy you like plus future encumberments, you could argue that protections should be removed or reduced, since we are trading them a top 5-9 lotto pick. Perhaps if they are hardline about it, they could argue you back to 'top 4 protected'.

[doclinkin]

I always have trouble with weighing draft pick value in trade back scenarios.

Here's a chart developed by Kevin Pelton

http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2.

We won't land pick #5. Assuming we land #6, it's worth 2110 points. That's good enough to trade back for #10 (1720 points plus #31 (360 points)

Interesting, I’m having trouble finding draft pick trades that fit into this chart.

That Pelicans/Hawks trade is nowhere close.

And that is my point. Future draft picks are undermarket compared to their on court value. So if you have a Win Now team, you can get the better benefit from for swapping for their undefined future. You can break the Pelton chart and come out ahead.

[prime1time]

I always have trouble with weighing draft pick value in trade back scenarios.

Here's a chart developed by Kevin Pelton

http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2.

We won't land pick #5. Assuming we land #6, it's worth 2110 points. That's good enough to trade back for #10 (1720 points plus #31 (360 points)

While I understand why he did this, this is kind of silly. Why would a team trade up to 6 when this is a 5 player draft? The difference between the 6th pick and the 10th pick is negligible. Likewise, I can understand why a team would want to trade up to #5. All in all, I question the value of draft pick value board, in the NBA when everything is dependent on individual players.

[prime1time]

If the Wizards get a top 5 pick they would be insane to trade down.

[nate33]

I always have trouble with weighing draft pick value in trade back scenarios.

Here's a chart developed by Kevin Pelton

http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2.

We won't land pick #5. Assuming we land #6, it's worth 2110 points. That's good enough to trade back for #10 (1720 points plus #31 (360 points)

While I understand why he did this, this is kind of silly. Why would a team trade up to 6 when this is a 5 player draft? The difference between the 6th pick and the 10th pick is negligible. Likewise, I can understand why a team would want to trade up to #5. All in all, I question the value of draft pick value board, in the NBA when everything is dependent on individual players.

Yes. Obviously, every trade would be dependent on the nuances of that particular draft. I agree that there might not be much incentive to move up from 10 to 6, at least at the moment. But you never know how things will change once we get into workouts and the combine.