2012 NBA Draft - Part III

[tontoz]

I'll add that dummy variable when I have time. Just guessing, but approximately a quarter of the database is comprised of guys who weren't drafted. That will grow as I continue adding players. Next project is purging underclassmen in the DB who aren't on the league's final list of kids entering the draft and adding in players who are entering the draft but aren't in the database.

All this seems like this is a lot of work without getting paid. I don't see why you wouldn't be trying to sell this to teams that need scouting help, which would probably be most of them.

My cousin is a wealthy salesman and he always says "if you don't ask, the answer is always no".

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Catching up on a few things:

1. The Jordannaires backed up Elvis (in case that hadn't been mentioned).

2. YODA -- Alas, I'm going to be skeptical of any prognostication system that tries to factor in the significance of "height, length..." etc. There is no data suggesting they have *any* significance at all. Do a bell-shaped curve of SG productivity, in other words, and it will show a *random* distribution of height, wingspan, etc. Random. Ditto for other positions. Do the league's tallest, longest teams have the best win-loss record?

3. Ben Gordon -- this guy is *way* overpaid. You cannot create a good team by accumulating overpaid players because they have "skills" you need. In fact, in a future post, I'm going to try to debunk the whole notion that you build a good team *at all* by trying to get all the "skills" you think are necessary. Coming soon (but probably not today).

4. If we get Davis, can we trade Booker? Yeah man!!

payitforward,

1. One group backing Elvis and another backing MJ, the athlete, seems to have great parallelism.

I still think Harlan might have read RealGm from way back and that we both didn't just serendipitously come up with the same idea (but that does happen!).

2. YODA is blessed with great technology and it makes statistical inferences that mere mortals cannot fathom. Kevin is a smart, smart, smart dude. YODA might eventually correlate dirty fingernails with character issues. Scary man ...

3. I consider Nene to be overpaid but he sure as heck changed things. Ben is way overpaid, payitforward. I can't understand his salary with Rip and Tayshaun Prince making much less, either.

That said, I think he can have a Nene-type effect on a young team. Denver quickly regretted the contract they gave Nene. He is overpaid IMO. Yet, his impact has been beyond anything I could have imagined. I have to give Ernie Grunfeld and their scouts props on Nene. Whoever suggested him did well (in the short run). I have decided the future is now, and that if Nene can stay healthy 65-70 games+ the next two seasons; who cares about the financial part? The chemistry is so very right that all my worst fears were not realized in the short run. The deadline deals are looking to be win wins. Wizards, Clips, and Nuggets are each pretty happy right now.

The only reason for mentioning Ben Gordon would be the opportunity to send Blatche and Crawford away and to gain an accurate shooter, thus improving chemistry. I love Gordon's confidence. That guy is going to man up, take the shot, and make a share of them. I just don't like Jordan's judgment with Wall and his overall lack of accuracy. I think Ben would be the Nene to Jordan Crawford being the McGee, if a trade were made. Getting Blatche to a better situation would be nice, too.

4. Booker is a guy I feel guilty even mentioning trading. He works hard and he's been very effective when healthy. I liked him at Clemson and I still do like him. He's going to do alright and he's going to be in the league getting paid the next 10 years IMO.

[nuposse04]

question...since Davis will be seeing some Olympic play...what happens if he suffers a significant injuries...would a team with 1st pic still take him or be more likely to move down...

[payitforward]

"nene is overpaid..." -- if he performs next year for 2500 minutes the way he performed for us this year, he is... ok he's still *a little* overpaid. But not much. And there is no comparison to Ben Gordon, who is a *way below average* SG making $12m/year. Yes, I'd rather have a round 2 rookie. If he doesn't work out, you can dump him. W/ the $$ you pay Gordon, why not sign a FA?

Again, the cost of amnestying Dray is *not* his salary; it's the salary of the lowest-paid guy on the bench. If you keep Dray, *that guy* is the one you don't have on the team.

Got to understand the business/$$ stuff guys; otherwise there's no way to understand rebuilding.

As to getting rid of Jordan Crawford, all we have to do is not pick up his option next year and he's gone. This too is not an issue.

Now... is Ernie smart enough not to view JC thru the perspective of "potential?" I don't know; I guess I doubt it. I'd certainly trade him for a high round 2 pick in this draft w/o a moment's hesitation.

[payitforward]

Here is a question:

Assuming the ping pong balls don't change our draft position or that of the Cavs, and noting that the Cavs have 2 round one choices and 2 more choices at the top of round 2...

Would you swap down a spot from 2 to 3 in return for one of the round 2 choices?

What if it was from 3 to 4?
How about from 4 to 5?
Finally would you do it from 5 to 6?

Thoughts?

[7-Day Dray]

question...since Davis will be seeing some Olympic play...what happens if he suffers a significant injuries...would a team with 1st pic still take him or be more likely to move down...

The Olympics is after the draft.

[nuposse04]

question...since Davis will be seeing some Olympic play...what happens if he suffers a significant injuries...would a team with 1st pic still take him or be more likely to move down...

The Olympics is after the draft.

did not know that, thanks...well i hope the hypothetical doesn't play out then...

[montestewart]

Again, the cost of amnestying Dray is *not* his salary; it's the salary of the lowest-paid guy on the bench. If you keep Dray, *that guy* is the one you don't have on the team.

Got to understand the business/$$ stuff guys; otherwise there's no way to understand rebuilding.

No one around here has ever heard of such outlandish notions.

"[T]he cost of amnestying Dray is *not* his salary; it's the salary of the lowest-paid guy on the bench" means what? That when the Wizards amnesty Blatche they'll be able to sign another D-Leaguer? Perhaps a different wording would help.

To Leonsis, the cost of amnestying Blatche is his salary, minus whatever any subsequent team signing him is willing to pay. Some team will take a shot at the minimum, so that would be a little less than keeping him.

Most of the Gordon trades were proposed under the premise that Leonsis didn't want to eat Blatchemo's salary and would prefer partial value on the wasted Blatche dollar.

[theboomking]

Since we are all discussing trade down scenario's, how about the number 2 or 3 overall, plus other incentive, to Golden State, for Stephen Curry and the 7th overall pick? Now is probably the best time to buy low on Curry, who is very efficient, and really complements Wall well. At 7, we could consider a number of second tier prospects, Barnes, Sullinger, Zeller, Lamb, PJIII, etc.

Not saying I would make the move, but I would consider it, and it seems like the type of thing EG would do.

Hey Nivek, any chance you'd let me know how Paul George compares to Jeremy Lamb, according to Yoda?

[willbcocks]

Leonsis has been eating blatche's salary since he bought the team, and he will continue to do so whether or not Blatche is amnestied. He is a sunk cost unless he can be moved, so that's the main question the front office should be asking itself.

They clearly were unable to move Blatche before the trade deadline, so they know he can't be moved now. They must either plan to amnesty him, or they are holding out hoep that they can rehabilitate his value. If they don't amnesty him, it'll mean the second, and in my opinion that would be a red flag about mangement's judgment.

[montestewart]

^
I think you're echoing a lot of people's fears there. I agree, it's sunk cost with little or no return regardless. It's just hard to tell what they're thinking.

[jangles86]

Maurice Creek
Rob McKiver
Jaycee Carroll
Lestor Hudson
Booker Woodfox
Aaron Jackson

easily the best name I've ever heard of

[verbal8]

To Leonsis, the cost of amnestying Blatche is his salary, minus whatever any subsequent team signing him is willing to pay. Some team will take a shot at the minimum, so that would be a little less than keeping him.

I think the acquiring team will pay significantly more than the minimum for Blatche. It won't be anywhere near these levels, but look at what Kwame Brown and Humphries got for salaries - $7 and $8 million. There will be teams with cap room and nowhere good to use it. I can't see every team resisting putting in a $2 or $3 million dollar/year bid. He would be cheaper than Petro or Joel Anthony and have more upside.

[payitforward]

"[T]he cost of amnestying Dray is *not* his salary; it's the salary of the lowest-paid guy on the bench" means what? That when the Wizards amnesty Blatche they'll be able to sign another D-Leaguer? Perhaps a different wording would help.

To Leonsis, the cost of amnestying Blatche is his salary, minus whatever any subsequent team signing him is willing to pay. Some team will take a shot at the minimum, so that would be a little less than keeping him.

Ok, I'll try a different way of wording this.

Let me start with two assumptions: 1) Blatche can contribute nothing. In 7 years, he's had a couple of dozen good games, and he's lost whatever he had that made those games possible; and 2) Blatche can be traded only for another non-productive player (viz. other teams usually only take *your* problem in return for you taking *their* problem). If you think differently, think he was, is or is going to be a productive NBA player, or that he can be traded for someone good, that's your privilege.

Blatche's *contract* will cost the team @ $7.4m next year -- that's true whether he stays or is amnestied. Hence, amnestying him doesn't add any cost. Indeed keeping him costs us a roster spot and $7.4m of cap space (wch opens up if he is amnestied).

If he goes, we have a roster spot to fill. Whatever it costs us to fill that spot *is* an additional cost of amnestying Blatche. Inasmuch as we're still in rebuild mode, I'd fill the spot w/ a rookie -- putatively that'd be our mid-round 2 pick.

Now, you mention that someone will pick up Blatche at the minimum. I agree. It's possible, in other words, that we'd *save* a little money amnestying him.

Does this make sense? Given my assumptions?

[verbal8]

It looks like this draft is incredibly weak from a foreign player point of view. Draft Express' top internataional pick(Tomas Satoransky) is a mid-2nd and sounds like Marko Jarić part II. The 2nd one(Furkan Aldemir) doesn't sound much more promising.

[Ruzious]

It looks like this draft is incredibly weak from a foreign player point of view. Draft Express' top internataional pick(Tomas Satoransky) is a mid-2nd and sounds like Marko Jarić part II. The 2nd one(Furkan Aldemir) doesn't sound much more promising.

I would like to hear views on Evan Fournier. He sounds like a player who might fit in with the Wiz at some point.

[Zonkerbl]

"[T]he cost of amnestying Dray is *not* his salary; it's the salary of the lowest-paid guy on the bench" means what? That when the Wizards amnesty Blatche they'll be able to sign another D-Leaguer? Perhaps a different wording would help.

To Leonsis, the cost of amnestying Blatche is his salary, minus whatever any subsequent team signing him is willing to pay. Some team will take a shot at the minimum, so that would be a little less than keeping him.

Ok, I'll try a different way of wording this.

Let me start with two assumptions: 1) Blatche can contribute nothing. In 7 years, he's had a couple of dozen good games, and he's lost whatever he had that made those games possible; and 2) Blatche can be traded only for another non-productive player (viz. other teams usually only take *your* problem in return for you taking *their* problem). If you think differently, think he was, is or is going to be a productive NBA player, or that he can be traded for someone good, that's your privilege.

Blatche's *contract* will cost the team @ $7.4m next year -- that's true whether he stays or is amnestied. Hence, amnestying him doesn't add any cost. Indeed keeping him costs us a roster spot and $7.4m of cap space (wch opens up if he is amnestied).

If he goes, we have a roster spot to fill. Whatever it costs us to fill that spot *is* an additional cost of amnestying Blatche. Inasmuch as we're still in rebuild mode, I'd fill the spot w/ a rookie -- putatively that'd be our mid-round 2 pick.

Now, you mention that someone will pick up Blatche at the minimum. I agree. It's possible, in other words, that we'd *save* a little money amnestying him.

Does this make sense? Given my assumptions?

You're having a semantic problem. An alternative is to try saying something like:

Here are the *consequences* of amnestying/not amnestying Blatche:
Blah blah blah.

To an economist these are all "opportunity costs." Sometimes other folks have a narrower view of what the word "cost" means.

Plus, just to nitpick, I'm not sure you're actually required to fill all 15 of your roster spots. If you choose to do so, is that really a cost?

[nate33]

"nene is overpaid..." -- if he performs next year for 2500 minutes the way he performed for us this year, he is... ok he's still *a little* overpaid.

Minor quibble here. If Nene plays 2500 minutes and performs like he has so far, he would be an absolute bargain at $13M. Nene posted a PER of 24.2 with Washington while anchoring what turned out to be the league's best defense (in the games that he played) and leading the team in the locker room. Nene was a superstar with Washington, one of the top 5-10 players in the league.

There is no comparison to Ben Gordon, who is a *way below average* SG making $12m/year. Yes, I'd rather have a round 2 rookie. If he doesn't work out, you can dump him. W/ the $$ you pay Gordon, why not sign a FA?

Again, the cost of amnestying Dray is *not* his salary; it's the salary of the lowest-paid guy on the bench. If you keep Dray, *that guy* is the one you don't have on the team.

We would be dumping Blatche in a Gordon acquisition. Instead of paying Blatche $7.2M, $7.8M and $8.5M in the next 3 years respectively, we would be paying Gordon $12.4M and $13.2M in the next 2 years. If you assume that we replace Gordon with a random minimum salary vet in that 3rd year, then the net cost of the trade would be $2.5M over 3 years. I don't know about you, but I'd gladly pay a net total of $2.5M to upgrade our talent base and locker room presence from Blatche to Gordon. A side benefit is that Gordon comes off the books when Wall, Seraphin and Booker are due for new contracts. The savings might be just what it takes to keep us under the luxtax and allow us to retain Booker (or some other free agent).

I want to reiterate that amnestying Blatche is by far the most preferable option. All I'm saying is that trading Blatche for Gordon is better than standing pat, if we assume that Ted is flat out unwilling to amnesty Blatche at any point in the future.

[payitforward]

Minor quibble here. If Nene plays 2500 minutes and performs like he has so far, he would be an absolute bargain at $13M. Nene posted a PER of 24.2 with Washington while anchoring what turned out to be the league's best defense (in the games that he played) and leading the team in the locker room. Nene was a superstar with Washington, one of the top 5-10 players in the league.

Well, we agree on the most important point -- here's hoping Nene comes back next year and plays 2500 minutes at the level he played for us this season!

And you are right that the level he played at put him among the top handful of players in the league. Worth mentioning that James Singleton's minutes with us put him in more or less the same spot (not using PER as the metric, using WS40 -- PER overvalues scoring IMO).

...I'd gladly pay a net total of $2.5M to upgrade our talent base and locker room presence from Blatche to Gordon.

This is where we differ. I see no point to doing that. IMO (and by the numbers) Ben Gordon is not a good player. He doesn't add anything whatever.

I want to reiterate that amnestying Blatche is by far the most preferable option.

Yes, IMO this would be the single strongest possible indicator that we are on a new, and productive path.

[Dat2U]

I want to reiterate that amnestying Blatche is by far the most preferable option. All I'm saying is that trading Blatche for Gordon is better than standing pat, if we assume that Ted is flat out unwilling to amnesty Blatche at any point in the future.

Paying $25 million over the next two seasons for Ben Gordon is not a position I could even consider.

Doing absolutely nothing is better than committing a large chunk of cap space to a backup shooting guard.