2012 Draft, Part VI (Draft Week is Here!)

[MikeTheKid]

will there be a RealGM contingent at the draft party tonight or will
you all be at home with your laptops ready to wax pontific on whatever
happens?

I'll be there. Look for me and Jacqui in full Wizards regalia.

I won VIP passes on the radio Ill be there, can't wait

[Zonkerbl]

I really hope Cleveland moves up to 2 and takes Beal. I really want MKG. He is the youngest player in the draft. He would be the number one pick IF he could shoot. He was the heart of a championship Kentucky team at a very young age. He does EVERYTHING. Shooting can be taught, MKG's intangibles can't be put in a computer program or quantified. He is a gym rat. He wins everywhere he goes. He has superstar potential.

Also the Heat were able to win the championship DRIVING TO THE HOLE! We can get shooters. I was really on the Beal bandwagon, but I REALLY REALLY want MKG!

um, if shooting can be taught, why hasn't he learned it yet?

Worked for LBJ...just sayin lol.

Lyndon B Johnson? When did he play in the NBA?

[RickRoll_inDC]

will there be a RealGM contingent at the draft party tonight or will
you all be at home with your laptops ready to wax pontific on whatever
happens?

I'll be there. Look for me and Jacqui in full Wizards regalia.

I'll be there.... except no one knows who I am and I don't know anyone. So I might see you but we'll never know!

[jangles86]

Lots of mocks have Quincy Miller falling to the bottom of the first round, if we could move up a few spots from 32 and come away with Beal and Miller to fill our holes at the 2/3 I'd be very happy.

Me too. A Beal, Miller draft would be nice.
I think I remember reading that John Wall and Quincey Miller went to the same high school?

[FAH1223]

Only 3+ hours left guys... I AM NERVOUS AS HELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

[DCZards]

Lyndon B Johnson? When did he play in the NBA?

He played some PG with the Dallas Chaparrals of the ABA. He had a reputation for his moves to the right but ended up going hard to the left when he got full-court pressure from MLK.

[OffTheWall2]

I think when all is said and done, wizards end up with

# 3 - Bradley Beal

# 32 - Jared Sullinger (epic drop about to happen)

And potentially do something smart like move another of our players for someone of a better fit in this draft! Or potentially even buy a pick!

Here's hoping for a good night.

[nate33]

I don't think Sullinger falls THAT far, and if he does, I don't really want him anyway. We've already got 3 guys on the roster who duplicate his skillset while also playing better D.

[7-Day Dray]

Lots of mocks have Quincy Miller falling to the bottom of the first round, if we could move up a few spots from 32 and come away with Beal and Miller to fill our holes at the 2/3 I'd be very happy.

I think I remember reading that John Wall and Quincey Miller went to the same high school?

They played on the same AAU team, D-One Sports in NC, and are still close friends.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Sullinger won't fall past teams like Boston, SA, or OKC who need a big man with offense.

[The Consiglieri]

Nivek, while I respect the work you do with stats and YODA, I think GMs and scouts would find YODA pretty useless because it doesn't seem to take into account a young man's potential, which is what a lot of drafting is based upon. There's simply no way Rivers would in any GMs "don't draft" category.

Quick first step, gets to the rim and free throw line, ultracompetitive, doc's pedigree, apparently a good work ethic. As raw as he may be and as bad as he played at times at Duke, Rivers' potential is just too obvious, imo, to be on anybody's don't draft list.

Or whats his face as #2. There are serious flaws in it, I bet it does a great job of smoking out dramatically overrated types and future busts, and identifying dramatically underrated guys but i think it skews things crazily, some of the rankings appear utterly idiotic to be honest, and I know the #'s are saying its so, and just an overreliance on group think, and vague, unmathetmatic principles are saying its not so, but it doesnt change the fact that I just its crazy flawed for the reasons DC suggests, and for others.

[Dr Positivity]

Interesting approach Mufasa. If you're trying to project actual PER, your scores are a bit optimistic. As a prospect rating system, I think it's not bad.

Instead of presenting them as PER-like, it might be better to choose a different scale. Few drafts would yield as many high-PER players as your system "projects".

Yeah I have this draft as being abnormally deep with solid players. I'm guessing there is some huge busts, but it's hard for me to pick which ones. I do believe in the idea in predicting the average for a draft of 3 all-stars + 8 other starters + 17-20 total rotation players, though I'm a little higher than that here. On that note some players are productive but don't establish themselves in that starter group anyways. In the 08 draft Bayless, Rush, Thompson, Anthony Randolph, Lopez, Speights, Hickson are 14-16 PER players who are still struggling for a consistent spot. I think when players get to about 18 that they become "must starts". So while I'm expecting production from types like Lillard, Waiters, Royce, etc., it still wouldn't surprise me if they do that and come off the bench at the same time

[Knighthonor]

will there be a RealGM contingent at the draft party tonight or will
you all be at home with your laptops ready to wax pontific on whatever
happens?

I'll be there. Look for me and Jacqui in full Wizards regalia.

the second. I will stay home.

too sore from basketball at work to do more riding on metro to china town.

also I was wondering.

With the Number 3 and 32,

what if wizards draft a SF and a PG(that can shoot).

can play the PG at the SG, while also upgrading the SF as well.

1)Wall
2)New Shooting PG (that has handle and shot)
3) new SF
4)nene/booker
5)Okafor/ks

[Upper Decker]

I'll be really disappointed if the pick is Barnes. This is an older article from Grantland, but still highly relevant. Here's a portion that talks about Harrison Barnes' 'Brand':

It's crazy that Barnes was thinking about his brand before he played a minute of college basketball. It's crazy that when Barnes struggled mightily during his freshman year, he was still thinking about that brand. And it's crazy that before the NCAA tournament, Barnes felt the need to broadcast his brand through a national magazine by talking, of course, about his brand.

Athletes and 'Brands' are so obnoxious and is a motivation killer. Melo doesn't seem to care about winning, neither does Dwight, why should they when it's soo much more lucrative to maximize their brand? Both of them should be so much better ball players. Barnes isn't even as good as Melo, but he's been worried about his brand since he was 17. Come on, give me a ball player, give me MKG.
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7737280/harrison-barnes-two-years-north-carolina-tar-heels

[Nivek]

Kevin -- Out of curiosity, which players are the biggest "misses" in YODA -- meaning, ranked say, in the top 20 overall/ever, but ended up not being very good -- and why do you think that is?

Michael Beasley is easily the biggest "rated high but hasn't been any good" miss. He's a guy who seemed to have the skills and athleticism to switch from being primarily and inside player to SF. In retrospect, the high turnovers may have been a warning. If I was a GM, I'd be willing to acquire him cheap and give him a shot as a full-time PF just to see if he could regain his game.

Next miss I'd say is Shane Battier. He's been a good pro, but in the role playing starter vein, not as The Man.

In the "looks like a good prospect but has some flaws" are some guys who weren't much good (or at least haven't broken through to this point) like Mario Chalmers, Luther Head, Danny Green, Cole Aldrich, Nazr Mohammed, Ronnie Brewer, Chris Wilcox, Shelden Williams.

On the other end of the spectrum, JJ Redick has some of the lowest scores in YODA -- well into the negatives for both his junior and senior seasons. He shot the ball well, of course, but did almost nothing else on the floor. He's become a good pro.

Missed on Karl Malone -- would have had him rated as an average prospect, he turned into an all-time great. (I still wonder if/how much pharmaceutical help he had).

On the other hand, there are guys the experts held in low esteem that YODA suggested would be good -- and they were/are. Ty Lawson, Faried, Millsap, Boozer, Granger, Tayshaun Prince, Josh Howard, Rondo... you get the idea.

[truwizfan4evr]

I think when all is said and done, wizards end up with

# 3 - Bradley Beal

# 32 - Jared Sullinger (epic drop about to happen)

And potentially do something smart like move another of our players for someone of a better fit in this draft! Or potentially even buy a pick!

Here's hoping for a good night.

that be a dream scenario for me. I think Jared going to prove people wrong and be not as good as Kevin love but not far behind.

[dobrojim]

I really hope Cleveland moves up to 2 and takes Beal. I really want MKG. He is the youngest player in the draft. He would be the number one pick IF he could shoot. He was the heart of a championship Kentucky team at a very young age. He does EVERYTHING. Shooting can be taught, MKG's intangibles can't be put in a computer program or quantified. He is a gym rat. He wins everywhere he goes. He has superstar potential.

Also the Heat were able to win the championship DRIVING TO THE HOLE! We can get shooters. I was really on the Beal bandwagon, but I REALLY REALLY want MKG!

AD would be the #1#1 even if MKG could shoot. No ifs ands or buts about it.

[Nivek]

Nivek, while I respect the work you do with stats and YODA, I think GMs and scouts would find YODA pretty useless because it doesn't seem to take into account a young man's potential, which is what a lot of drafting is based upon. There's simply no way Rivers wouldbe on any GMs "don't draft" category.

Quick first step, gets to the rim and free throw line, ultracompetitive, doc's pedigree, apparently a good work ethic. As raw as he may be and as bad as he played at times at Duke, Rivers' potential is just too obvious, imo, to be on anybody's don't draft list.

This is a nice summary of how GMs and scouts have worked through the years. And we can look at Arturo Galleti's work at the Wages of Wins blog to see how that strategy has worked out. The draft has been a highly inefficient way for teams to bring in talent. GMs don't seem to have the ability to consistently identify which players have potential and which players don't.

My assumption going into this project is one that I think has been borne out by the research to this point: that potential is something that can be identified by looking at what players actually accomplished while on the court.

We'll see what happens, of course.

[dobrojim]

for anyone still in range and going to the draft party, I'll have my
smallish 14 daughter who gets consistently mistaken for a boy
with me and we'll both be wearing Wiz gear. I'll have the red/white/blue
home jersey (no number) on. I'm average looking 5-10ish old but actually not
particularly old looking white guy.

you'll hear me hoot if/when Beal is the pick. And again if Crowder gets
the nod at 32.

[The Consiglieri]

I really hope Cleveland moves up to 2 and takes Beal. I really want MKG. He is the youngest player in the draft. He would be the number one pick IF he could shoot. He was the heart of a championship Kentucky team at a very young age. He does EVERYTHING. Shooting can be taught, MKG's intangibles can't be put in a computer program or quantified. He is a gym rat. He wins everywhere he goes. He has superstar potential.

Also the Heat were able to win the championship DRIVING TO THE HOLE! We can get shooters. I was really on the Beal bandwagon, but I REALLY REALLY want MKG!

um, if shooting can be taught, why hasn't he learned it yet?

College football, baseball, basketball teams etc are purely interested in building a roster that fills roles, and executes a coaches design on the way to winning a title. This is why college pitchers are often ruined by idiot coaches, Tim Tebow still can't throw properly, and MKG can't shoot that well. Calipari asked MKG to lead, to finish, to grab boards, and to play energizer bunny D, jump shooting was left to guys like Lamb, Teague, Jones etc.

At the NBA level one would hope (based on McGee's mom's complaints, probably not in DC) that a Thrope like teacher would be hired to help provide supplementary work for weaknesses in the games of players who have fatal flaws, both Wall and MKG could use a teacher like Thorpe to work on it.

College teams aren't interested, its been proven 1000x over, its a money generating, results oriented business, and players are used as tools and cogs in a machine, much more often than not, they aren't "taught".