Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[montestewart]

I don't mind the lottery system much. I think it's good enough that those among the bottom six or seven teams get a much better chance at acquiring a star caliber player than a playoff team. I see no compelling reason why the absolute worst team in the league should get a significantly better chance at improving than, say, the 4th-worst team.

The lottery system rewards mediocrity, but doesn't necessarily reward flat out ineptitude. I like that.

In addition to not rewarding ineptitude (especially chronic ineptitude), I thought part of the reason for the lottery was to take away the guarantee of top pick for the team with the worst record, responding to criticisms about blatant tanking.

[Dat2U]

I think the bigger problem had to do with the specific players we drafted, the existing veterans on the roster (or lack thereof), and the team's player development program (or lack thereof). This reminds me of that Grantland article recently published about how it hurts Wizards fans to see Kawhi Leonard playing so well knowing we could have drafted him, but then also pointing out that even if we drafted Leonard, he probably would have been mismanaged and his development would have suffered greatly. It's hard to defend the Vesely pick, but Singleton was honestly a solid pick, and I think he would have found a decent role on a lot of other teams. But the problem is that our coaching staff and front office was not prepared to have so many rookies, especially ones so raw and in desperate need of developmental coaching.

Singleton was not a solid pick - or even a defensible pick. It was a pick that Susan O'Malley would have made - not a professional GM. He was an error-prone player in college who was offensively impaired. His defensive stats were his only impressive stats. And considering they picked Vesely to be a SF - that's what Ernie Grunfeld said - made the Singleton pick even more confusing. Considering Faried was there and supposedly played a different position than Vesely, he was the obvious pick - and there really can't be any justifiable reason not to have picked him, imo - which several of us - not just CCJ - said at the time. Granted, most of us thought Singleton would be better than he has been, but he was still an awful pick.

I didn't do my due diligence on Singleton at the time. Knowing what I know now about his college career, I would have stayed away, but at the time his size & defensive acumen seemed like an okay fit. I basically had Faried & Singleton on the same level. I gave a slight edge to Faried, but I was more than okay with Singleton being the choice.

Had I looked at his stats & advanced numbers at the time, it would be easy to see he wasn't worthy of being drafted.

[nuposse04]

it doesn't take much to be better then Vesely though. You could prolly bring in a UFA and have a better basketball player then vesely tbh. If EG can, he should try to combine the two 2nds and move up as far as he can. I can't think of a player past the top 40 that would give meaningful minutes on a contender.

I'm also not so irate that they would dismiss 2nd rounders cause I know they're going to draft trash anyways. Just less trash to compile. :/

Please remember this comment this time next season.

Colton Iverson, Zeke Marshall, Andre Roberson, DJ Stephens, Juvonte Reddic, Ray McCallum, Solomon Hill, Brandon Paul, Micheal Snaer, Isaiah Canaan, Carrick Felix, Lorenzo Brown

Those are a few names off the top of my head of players who can contribute to contending teams even if drafted after #40. Most won't solely because of guaranteed roster spots and due to GMs like Ernie, who stock their teams with nondescript players.

Mario Chalmers, Deandre Jordan, Omer Asik, Landry Fields, Lance Stephenson, Chandler Parsons, Kyle Singler, Isaiah Thomas, Lavoy Allen, DeAndre Liggins, E'Twuan Moore were all second round picks.

From 2009 all these players went round two: Sam Young, Jodie Meeks, DeJuan Blair, Jetf Pendergraph, AJ Price, Jonas Jerebko, Patrick Beverly, Marcus Thornton, Chase Budinger, Danny Green

Price was the 52nd pick!

These players were not drafted: Jeremy Lin, Wesley Matthews, Alonzo Gee,

When I hear statements by Grunfeld and others that say there are only a handful of good players I disagree STRONGLY.

For the record CCJ, i'd rather the displace our current rookie scrubs with the 2nd rounders but I know it won't happen. The last decent 2nd rounder I can remember Ernie drafting was Blatche, and he didn't show any real dividends until like year 4. I'm not a draft guru like some on this board, I only pay attention really to "1st round talent" (which may be totally different pending on who you ask around here ) but I've always believed you need an EXCELLENT scouting department to take advantage of the 2nd round, which we are clearly lacking so the anger to me seems futile because we're just going to gamble our pick away on someone marginal anyways. There may be a few diamonds in a rough but most 2nd round picks are there for a reason. If you're counting on them to change the fortune of the team we've got a longer rebuild than we may have initially thought.

Of the guys you listed, the only players on that list that are actually "good" might be Lance, Parsons, Matthews, Green, thorton and Beverly.

Also I think it is worth mentioning, contenders who may not have 1st round picks probably do a better job at developing late 2nd round talent then lottery stricken franchises. I'm not so sure if the same 2nd round player would develop into a worth while player say here in DC. I want the team to be better, but they need to maximize talent rather than gamble on marginal players who COULD turn out to be a good player. If EG can turn the two 2nds into a high 2nd and get a more "sure thing" I'd rather he do that, because I have little faith we're about to develop someone is considerably flawed.

[The Consiglieri]

If he can swap 2nds for next year 2nds I'd be down with that. I don't think you're going to find anyone worth a damn beyond #40 in this draft. If he unloads one 2nd it won't be the end of the world, but the FO needs to start putting pressure on the rookie contract players. They're being quite the enablers in allowing their mediocre ways.

I know this isn't going to happen, but i would love to move our 2nd's for a first next year. For a team like Golden State, which doesnt have any picks this year, and will be a very good team next year, that could be an option. I'd be dangling the picks around for a return like that. Barring that, i'd try the Booker strategy and just hope for a better player. I suppose those picks might get us in 25-30 range?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

What I don't like about Ernie's comments is he makes it obvious he doesn't value the picks, reducing their value as assets. If he can parlay them into a higher pick maybe a low 1st, that would be great.

The reason why I like Adams... Physically and upside wise he is superior to Zeller. He is unquestionably a center. Len's foot concerns me. At his size, foot problems can be a never ending issue and career threatening. In addition his criticism is soft play. Adams has no health or injury issues. He is physically solid, and doesn't play soft.

At 19 he has just as much upside, fits into an uptempo style better, will defend. Coming into this situation with a mentor like Okafor is perfect for him, as well as Nene. Yes it also would be a good situation for Len, but his foot really concerns me. If he couldn't make it through a season playing 20 min a game for Maryland, how's he going to make it through the NBA? Plus he's gonna miss summer league and possibly training camp. You don't have these issues with Adams.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ, I love your posts for the most part, but I gotta call you out this time...

Since the creation of this thread (it's been about 2 weeks), you have named a TON of players that you love that are underrated or you think will be a great player in the NBA. In fact, I counted.

You have specifically identified 35 players as sleepers or very good players.
You have specifically identified 7 players as overrated or not very good players.

Of the 35 players you liked a lot, 20 of them are currently projected to be taken in the 2nd round or undrafted, according to Draft Express.

You think 15 of the 30 projected 1st round picks are sleepers or very good players.
You think 6 of the 30 projected 1st round picks are overrated or not very good players.
You have not posted in this thread in the last 2 weeks about the other 9 projected 1st round picks (except for Rudy Gobert, who I couldn't decide if you liked or not).


Obviously we're all entitled to our own opinions. This draft may, in fact, be very deep, as you seem to be indicating. That might come in the form of having several future all-stars, or it might come in the form of having handfuls of quality role players deep into the 2nd round. Or both. I'm not saying you're wrong about either of these things, necessarily.

What I am saying, however, is that unless this is a historically deep draft, with 40-50 quality NBA players, then you are getting a little carried away with your analysis. Seriously, the way you have been talking up all of these players, you'd think that a GM could blindly throw darts at the draft board and do just fine. You realize you have basically said that 2/3 of the 2nd round picks are going to be good players, right? Come on, CCJ, you're better than that. You're not going to be able to come back a year from now and point to any of your predictions and say "see, I told you I knew this kid was a sleeper," because you just claimed 20+ guys projected in the 2nd round or undrafted are going to be good. I hope you realize that. Your track record has been great in the past, from my recollection. But you are setting yourself up for failure by claiming nearly half the draft to be sleepers. It's simply too much.

I have named several players not even projected to be in round two. I do believe this draft will be very similar to 2009, and have many round two players superior to round one prospects. I don't know either way on Gobert but I don't think Adams will be any good. I also am not sure about Tony Mitchell. He has all the physical tools and would have possibly been a lottery pick last season.

rockymac52, you can disagree with me and that's fine be you can't discredit me before this draft. If you look at my posts leading up to the past eleven or twelve drafts see when I have ever been more wrong than right. I can name players like Morrison, Almond, Sweetney, Hendrix, Douby that I missed on. But for everyone of them there are probably four players Iiked when no draft site did.

A few off the top: Boozer, Blake, Korver, Marquis Daniels, Millsap, Blair, Faried, Novak, Wesley Matthews

What I think, rockymac52, is that thirty years ago there were no draft sites but guys like Jerry West and Red Auerbach managed to draft for talent and need very well. I don't need to align myself with every mock out of groupthink.

If Gobert is so good will he play C in the NBA? The Wizards took Vesely, who played SF abroad, and proceeded to have him bulk up to be a PF in the much more physical NBA. They already had drafted softies Blatche, Pecherov, and McGee. How smart was it to pick Vesely sixth? I think even worse was to try to make Jan a banger. Worse still, now he's behind veterans he can never beat out.

There are lots of other NBA teams who don't draft wisely. I have as much faith in my guesswork than in most draft so-called experts. This notion that Shabazz Muhammed is great reminds me of the hype surrounding Austin Rivers.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

My pics:
Top 3: Noel, Porter, Oladipo
8-10 Range: Bennett, Len, Zeller, Olynyk

I totally agree with your list of names. I would add CJ McCollum to the names 8-10.

[AFM]

My pics:
Top 3: Noel, Porter, Oladipo
8-10 Range: Bennett, Len, Zeller, Olynyk

I've been waiting to see your pics for a while now. Are they risque?

[The Consiglieri]

Exactly.

The lottery is kind to those picking in the 6 to 9 range because they have a reasonable chance of jumping all the way up to the top 3, a small chance of dropping one spot, and practically no chance of dropping 2 or more spots.

Picking 1st is awful. You have nowhere to go but down. Picking in the top 2 or 3 isn't much better. The odds of dropping are far higher than the odds of rising. Picking 4 or 5 isn't so great either.

We haven't been frowned upon by the basketball gods. We merely have had the misfortune of picking in the top 5 for several years so the odds work against us.

If memory serves, i believe we got booted down in '89, '92 (the shaq draft featured a TSN article on how the bullets deserved to get some luck for once and land Shaq, alas we know the rest), the '93 draft we got kicked down, '94 and '95 as well. I believe we've essentially been kicked down virtually every lottery we've ever partaken in. People seem to just reference the last couple of years, I've been watching this nightmare since i was a 7th grader in '88.

[sfam]

Considering how sucky the Wizards are at player development, it does make sense that the Wizards not bring in three rookies this year, especially considering they aren't planning on dumping their mostly worthless assets yet. While it doesn't make lots of sense to reach and eurostash a player like Satoransky at #32, I'm far more in favor of doing this with #54 instead of selling it for a night out at the Japanese Steakhouse, or using it to move up a single spot or so by packaging it with the #37. If we can move more than 4 spots, perhaps this makes sense.

It would also make sense to take chance to stash someone in the D-league, but clearly that must cost money, hence the eurostash route.

Regarding whether Satoransky ever amounts to anything, most of us sorely doubt it. We'll be pleasantly surprised though if he does. Ves' experience with the Wiz has got to scare the guy.

[The Consiglieri]

I think the bigger problem had to do with the specific players we drafted, the existing veterans on the roster (or lack thereof), and the team's player development program (or lack thereof). This reminds me of that Grantland article recently published about how it hurts Wizards fans to see Kawhi Leonard playing so well knowing we could have drafted him, but then also pointing out that even if we drafted Leonard, he probably would have been mismanaged and his development would have suffered greatly. It's hard to defend the Vesely pick, but Singleton was honestly a solid pick, and I think he would have found a decent role on a lot of other teams. But the problem is that our coaching staff and front office was not prepared to have so many rookies, especially ones so raw and in desperate need of developmental coaching.

Singleton was not a solid pick - or even a defensible pick. It was a pick that Susan O'Malley would have made - not a professional GM. He was an error-prone player in college who was offensively impaired. His defensive stats were his only impressive stats. And considering they picked Vesely to be a SF - that's what Ernie Grunfeld said - made the Singleton pick even more confusing. Considering Faried was there and supposedly played a different position than Vesely, he was the obvious pick - and there really can't be any justifiable reason not to have picked him, imo - which several of us - not just CCJ - said at the time. Granted, most of us thought Singleton would be better than he has been, but he was still an awful pick.

I didn't do my due diligence on Singleton at the time. Knowing what I know now about his college career, I would have stayed away, but at the time his size & defensive acumen seemed like an okay fit. I basically had Faried & Singleton on the same level. I gave a slight edge to Faried, but I was more than okay with Singleton being the choice.

Had I looked at his stats & advanced numbers at the time, it would be easy to see he wasn't worthy of being drafted.

You can lump me in the same mistaken bin. When they were both available at our slot i was ecstatic, a defense first wing that appeared to be getting the hang of shooting and was a monster in terms of d'ing up guys sounded great, and a rebounding monster with a huge motor sounded great. Sounded like win win to me. Alas like in all boulez lore, it ended up being lose, and watch the other guy win.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't see anything wrong with what Ernie said. He wants to package both 2nd round picks to move up, which is something people, like me, have stated they should do.

The team doesn't want to add 3 rookies, which is another thing some have said they don't really want either.

Just for the sake of argument, suppose there are no trades to move up and the Wizards select Olynyk, Erick Green, and Carrick Felix. Much to their surprise, Green and Felix both impress. Let's say Felix has them thinking of Jimmy Butler and Green has no problems running NBA sets, and is a very solid scoring PG from day one. Much better than Shelvin Mack.

They would have three rookies who play well. Is that a bad thing?

[AFM]

I think Ernie is being humble and admitting his inability to find anyone in the 2nd round.

[Dat2U]

I'm confident there are 2nd rd picks & undrafted free agents that are capable of outperforming Vesely, Singleton, Seraphin, Temple, Martin & Collins. That's 40% of our roster last year, lol. We've got exactly 3 perimeter guys (Wall, Beal & Ariza) currently signed on the roster. The last thing we need to worry about is classification at this stage and simply worry about finding the best available talent. Typical Ernieisms.

[GhostsOfGil]

My pics:
Top 3: Noel, Porter, Oladipo
8-10 Range: Bennett, Len, Zeller, Olynyk

I've been waiting to see your pics for a while now. Are they risque?

Len was disappointing

[Nivek]

Like most, I think Grunfeld's comments betray poor thinking at best, and are stupid and counterproductive at worst.

At best, Grunfeld and the team are pre-judging a group of players based on stuff that has nothing to do with their ability to play basketball. In this case, experience. He doesn't want 3 rookies. This is the same thing as wanting "veterans" and acquiring a couple 30-year old big men. I can think of lots of times teams would want 3 rookies at the same time -- a lot depends on which rookies. If they truly believe there aren't three rookies who can help them long-term where they're going to be picking, cool. But don't go and announce that publicly. Which leads me to my "worst case"...

Which is that he has publicly devalued his team's assets. I'd much prefer that Grunfeld say something like: They look forward to the draft because it's an opportunity to add talented players to a team that's in the midst of a rebuild. And then, if you really don't want to use all the picks, make a deal using whichever picks you don't want.

Are those second round picks great assets? No. But, it's like playing Hold 'Em and getting pocket 5s. It's not a terrific hand, but if you play them right, you might still come out a winner. One sure way to NOT come out a winner would be to sigh and say, "Hard to win with pocket fives."

YODA is up to date now. Would still like to have the bench test, but gotta work with what's available. The top 10, according to YODA:

1. Oladipo
2. Zeller
3. Burke
4. Noel
5. Olynyk
6. McLemore
7. Porter
8. Bennett
9. Carter-Williams
10. Dieng

Will have much more up at the blog in the coming days.

[verbal8]

I'm confident there are 2nd rd picks & undrafted free agents that are capable of outperforming Vesely, Singleton, Seraphin, Temple, Martin & Collins. That's 40% of our roster last year, lol. We've got exactly 3 perimeter guys (Wall, Beal & Ariza) currently signed on the roster. The last thing we need to worry about is classification at this stage and simply worry about finding the best available talent. Typical Ernieisms.

It isn't as bad as the NFL, but I think at this stage a lot of GMs are bluffing. Most people can see that the Wizards need to add young talent. There is some talent and some youth on the roster, unfortunately Beal and Wall are the only ones with both. If the whole league knows yeah the Wizards want to buy 2 draft picks, then the price for them will be higher. Not saying that 5 rookies is the way to fix the Wizards, but if there are opportunities to acquire players better than Singleton or Vesley, it should be done.

[montestewart]

I'm confident there are 2nd rd picks & undrafted free agents that are capable of outperforming Vesely, Singleton, Seraphin, Temple, Martin & Collins. That's 40% of our roster last year, lol. We've got exactly 3 perimeter guys (Wall, Beal & Ariza) currently signed on the roster. The last thing we need to worry about is classification at this stage and simply worry about finding the best available talent. Typical Ernieisms.

Minus the above, here's the likely opening day depth chart:
Wall/Price
Beal
Webster/Ariza
Nene/Booker
Okafor

Not great at this point, but with the strides made by Wall and Beal, not horrible either.

But that's it. As Nivek and others have pointed out, the team needs help at every position, backups at both guards or a combo guard who can respectably start, wing shooting or possibly the SF of the future, a backup center/center of the future, and more big depth in case Nene is injured. This team has no depth, and EG and Leonsis need to stop acting like those other players constitute depth. A bunch of rookies are potentially depth. Probably not, but it's time to move on and try other options. Even if any of those other players could be traded for anything of value, EG is probably not the person to get that done. We're probably stuck with them because we're stuck with him.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wq6hVs6K5mc[/youtube]

[nate33]

The reason why I like Adams... Physically and upside wise he is superior to Zeller. He is unquestionably a center. Len's foot concerns me. At his size, foot problems can be a never ending issue and career threatening. In addition his criticism is soft play. Adams has no health or injury issues. He is physically solid, and doesn't play soft.

At 19 he has just as much upside, fits into an uptempo style better, will defend. Coming into this situation with a mentor like Okafor is perfect for him, as well as Nene. Yes it also would be a good situation for Len, but his foot really concerns me. If he couldn't make it through a season playing 20 min a game for Maryland, how's he going to make it through the NBA? Plus he's gonna miss summer league and possibly training camp. You don't have these issues with Adams.

I find myself liking Adams better than all the other non-Noel bigs too. I don't think Adams is good enough to warrant being picked in the top 5 or 6, but I feel better about him being a reliable starter in this league than I do Olynyk or Zeller. Bigs MUST defend or they should come off the bench. I like Dieng and Withey a lot too, but given their respective ages, I'm worried that their upside is limited. At best, they pan out to have a Brendan Haywood/Samuel Dalembert type of career where they peak as a roughly average starting center if everything breaks right.

[Dat2U]

To go back about ten pages and get back to Dat2U on Zeller, it’s a solid and reasonable case you make against him there.

My position would be more bullish on him offensively while being on the same page with your defensive concerns for him, particularly around the basket where he’s a poor help defender not even taking his length issues into account. I like his defense in space well enough, but he often doesn’t rotate well as a help defender, partly related to his being locked up on stronger post players, but also because he makes bad reads at times. It would also be fairly well shocking if Zeller were a plus rebounder over his career too.

I see Zeller’s “struggles against strength” knock as being mostly a temporary problem, at least as far as it inhibits his offense. Defensively, I suspect his getting knocked around is an ongoing issue unfortunately.

McCollum and Zeller at 8, I’d have to think about.

One of the projects bigs versus him, all told, Zeller’s skills are too high and his production came too early for me to take other guys based on their incremental size advantage; if I’m totally and completely blown away by the intangibles and intelligence of one of the giants, I'd lean that way.

Olynyk’s situation of coming on late is way scary.

Someone like Office-Dipo slips, I’ll take him over Zeller.

I will say that drafting anyone other than a big is probably a move for eventual trade value rather than long term fit. Only a team with an owner rich enough to reside in an island volcano fortress like Brooklyn can afford three big money perimeter players. It’s more or less mathematically impossible to commit eight digit salaries to three perimeter guys and field a contender that’s under the tax. We saw what happened in OKC with Harden. I don’t even think this is a question anymore, so Porter, Beal and Wall on their second contracts in DC probably means Brandon Bass and Ian Mahimi are rounding out the starting lineup. Not that that’s a real issue for what we do though; we’ll get a better big by drafting a guard and having him make a play at rookie of the year than by taking a big stiffie based on need.

What's scary about Olynyk's situation? His breakout this year has been well discussed. http://seattletimes.com/html/gonzaga/20 ... aga31.html

I think Zeller has excellent touch & feel around the rim, but skill wise, I'd give Olynyk a significant advantage there. Zeller's standing reach is 2 inches shorter and defensively I suspect both will have their share of issues. Zeller is more athletic than Olynyk and runs the court better but that's not enough for me to pick Zeller.

I would take Oladipo in a heartbeat if he slips.