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Political Roundtable Part XVII

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#881 » by nate33 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:03 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:
Lol. Nothing you say in this post contradicts what I said. Yes, serious cognitive experts devised this test in the early 20th Century. They did it by choosing a group of kids they considered successful and a group they considered unsuccessful and kept questions that were good at differentiating them. Thus they embedded in the IQ test the racial biases at the time. This is a well known statistical artifact of these tests. We do not know how to measure intelligence. We don't know what intelligence is.

Ask any serious cognitive scientist and they will agree with me that IQ is a very flawed measure. I suspect the reason you like the IQ test so much is that it confirms your preconceived notion that white people have superior intelligence to certain other minorities you don't like. That very property is why serious cognitive scientists feel it is a flawed measure. It is not measuring what they want to measure.

I agree with you that all the statistical evidence seems to indicate that intelligence, however measured, is highly hereditary. I hope that's true because otherwise my argument about skimming off the cream of the crop from other countries would be moot.

But again, I'm going to keep repeating this, IQ and college graduation rates are a lousy metric to apply to newly arrived immigrants. I'll add that IQ is a lousy metric to compare hispanics to whites with, since the IQ test has built in biases favoring white people. As you point out, even though it is a lousy measure of intelligence *levels* there's nothing wrong with using it to track changes in intelligence over time for one person, or comparing parents to children.

Nevertheless, I propose (AGAIN) that the proper metric to apply to DACA beneficiaries is lifetime jobs created. Or perhaps the contribution to GDP of jobs created, to be a little more precise.

If, as you say, IQ is a poor measurement of intelligence and it was only developed as a means to measure to success in developed, western society, then isn't it still an ideal measuring tool for estimating the likely success of would-be immigrants into America, which is, in fact, a developed western society?
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#882 » by Zonkerbl » Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:07 pm

nate33 wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:
Lol. Nothing you say in this post contradicts what I said. Yes, serious cognitive experts devised this test in the early 20th Century. They did it by choosing a group of kids they considered successful and a group they considered unsuccessful and kept questions that were good at differentiating them. Thus they embedded in the IQ test the racial biases at the time. This is a well known statistical artifact of these tests. We do not know how to measure intelligence. We don't know what intelligence is.

Ask any serious cognitive scientist and they will agree with me that IQ is a very flawed measure. I suspect the reason you like the IQ test so much is that it confirms your preconceived notion that white people have superior intelligence to certain other minorities you don't like. That very property is why serious cognitive scientists feel it is a flawed measure. It is not measuring what they want to measure.

I agree with you that all the statistical evidence seems to indicate that intelligence, however measured, is highly hereditary. I hope that's true because otherwise my argument about skimming off the cream of the crop from other countries would be moot.

But again, I'm going to keep repeating this, IQ and college graduation rates are a lousy metric to apply to newly arrived immigrants. I'll add that IQ is a lousy metric to compare hispanics to whites with, since the IQ test has built in biases favoring white people. As you point out, even though it is a lousy measure of intelligence *levels* there's nothing wrong with using it to track changes in intelligence over time for one person, or comparing parents to children.

Nevertheless, I propose (AGAIN) that the proper metric to apply to DACA beneficiaries is lifetime jobs created. Or perhaps the contribution to GDP of jobs created, to be a little more precise.

If, as you say, IQ is a poor measurement of intelligence and it was only developed as a means to measure to success in developed, western society, then isn't it still an ideal measuring tool for estimating the likely success of would-be immigrants into America, which is, in fact, a developed western society?


Gah, you ninja'd me as I was adding a few sentences to my last post.

The IQ test is primarily a predictor of *academic* success.

The basis of this debate we're having is that immigrants should be allowed in who are net contributors to the economy. Entrepreneurial success is what we're interested in. Academic success is only indirectly correlated with contribution to GDP. IQ is a good predictor of academic success, but is a less reliable predictor of entrepreneurial success.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#883 » by Zonkerbl » Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:11 pm

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/education/percentage-americans-college-degrees-rises-paying-degrees-tops-financial-challenges

Only 40% of us have college degrees. A lot (I suspect most) jobs are created by entrepreneurs in small family businesses who don't have a college degree. Academic success is not a necessary condition to create jobs.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#884 » by Jamaaliver » Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:19 pm

stilldropin20 wrote:whoa whoa whoooooaaaa!!

wait just a second here. How has trump been anything other than transparent??? Everything he want or is pushing for he campaigned on. everything.




‘He made promises that he didn’t keep’: Laid-off factory workers feel betrayed by Trump

The president has turned his focus to wider benefits of his tax overhaul after a campaign packed with pledges to keep jobs in the U.S.


President Donald Trump’s path to becoming “the best jobs president that God ever created” was supposed to run straight through Indianapolis and the Carrier manufacturing plant that had for decades employed thousands of workers there.

Instead, more than a year after the then-president-elect stood before a crowd of cheering workers and trumpeted a deal to save their jobs — and months after the company’s name faded from the headlines and the president himself moved onto other talking points — more than 1,500 once-employed residents are now out of work, Indiana union officials say. More than 200 Carrier employees clocked out of their final shift at the plant just last week.

Despite the show at the Carrier plant, the company has eliminated more than 500 jobs since July. And union officials fear that the $7 million Carrier received in state incentives as part of the Trump deal to keep jobs is only going to be invested in automation.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#885 » by Jamaaliver » Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:27 pm

Poll: Under Trump, global approval of U.S. leadership hits historical low

Other nations’ approval of U.S. leadership under President Donald Trump hit a historical low of 30 percent in 2017, according to a Gallup poll released Thursday.

The measure, the lowest since Gallup began tracking it worldwide in 2007, signals an 18-point drop from a year earlier, when 48 percent approved of the national influence under former President Barack Obama. It is the single largest year-to-year drop in approval of U.S. leadership — or of any country examined — to date.


The steep decline, researchers said, can be largely attributed to the shift in leadership in the West Wing.

The falling ratings under Trump were both substantial and widespread. Global views were among the worst in nations considered key U.S. allies, researchers said, undermining boasts by Trump about his close relationships with global leaders in pivotal diplomatic partnerships.

“The biggest decline that happened across the world are with our allies,” Clifton said.

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#886 » by nate33 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:05 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:
stilldropin20 wrote:whoa whoa whoooooaaaa!!

wait just a second here. How has trump been anything other than transparent??? Everything he want or is pushing for he campaigned on. everything.




‘He made promises that he didn’t keep’: Laid-off factory workers feel betrayed by Trump

The president has turned his focus to wider benefits of his tax overhaul after a campaign packed with pledges to keep jobs in the U.S.


President Donald Trump’s path to becoming “the best jobs president that God ever created” was supposed to run straight through Indianapolis and the Carrier manufacturing plant that had for decades employed thousands of workers there.

Instead, more than a year after the then-president-elect stood before a crowd of cheering workers and trumpeted a deal to save their jobs — and months after the company’s name faded from the headlines and the president himself moved onto other talking points — more than 1,500 once-employed residents are now out of work, Indiana union officials say. More than 200 Carrier employees clocked out of their final shift at the plant just last week.

Despite the show at the Carrier plant, the company has eliminated more than 500 jobs since July. And union officials fear that the $7 million Carrier received in state incentives as part of the Trump deal to keep jobs is only going to be invested in automation.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#887 » by gtn130 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:11 pm

nate33 wrote:


Yeah man this panel of five clueless Trump voters really proves your point
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#888 » by nate33 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:11 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:



Apple to add 20K jobs, pay $38B US tax bill to repatriate cash

Apple (AAPL) on Wednesday said it will create 20,000 new jobs and establish a new U.S.-based campus as part of $350 billion in new "direct contribution" to the economy.

Apple also said it expects repatriation tax payments of roughly $38 billion due to changes enacted by the recently-passed GOP tax reform bill. The new tax code calls for a 15.5% repatriation tax rate. The company listed $252.3 billion in overseas cash in its most recent filing with the SEC.

“The company plans to establish an Apple campus in a new location, which will initially house technical support for customers. The location of this new facility will be announced later in the year,” the company said in a statement.


http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2018/01/17/apple-to-add-20000-jobs-contribute-350b-to-us-economy.amp.html
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#889 » by nate33 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:12 pm

gtn130 wrote:Yeah man this panel of five clueless Trump voters really proves your point

As usual, thank you for your insightful and witty contribution to the discussion.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#890 » by gtn130 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:18 pm

nate33 wrote:
gtn130 wrote:Yeah man this panel of five clueless Trump voters really proves your point

As usual, thank you for your insightful and witty contribution to the discussion.


You're welcome bro. Care to explain what that congregation of clueless nutjobs tells us about Trump?
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#891 » by nate33 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:21 pm

Image

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/17/us-industrial-production-dec-2017.html

Manufacturing production rose at a 7.0 percent rate in the fourth quarter, the biggest gain since the second quarter of 2010. It increased 1.3 percent in 2017, the largest rise since 2012.

"A positive fundamental backdrop of tax cuts, solid domestic and global demand, a weaker dollar, firmer energy prices and somewhat leaner inventories all translate into solid prospects for industrial activity in 2018," said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#892 » by nate33 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:22 pm

gtn130 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
gtn130 wrote:Yeah man this panel of five clueless Trump voters really proves your point

As usual, thank you for your insightful and witty contribution to the discussion.


You're welcome bro. Care to explain what that congregation of clueless nutjobs tells us about Trump?

About as much as a cherry-picked group of Carrier workers tells us about Trump.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#893 » by Jamaaliver » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:25 pm

nate33 wrote:
Jamaaliver wrote:



Apple to add 20K jobs, pay $38B US tax bill to repatriate cash


http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2018/01/17/apple-to-add-20000-jobs-contribute-350b-to-us-economy.amp.html


This is a fair point. But it's impact is intentionally overstated. The billion dollar corporation is misleading you to justify the billion dollar tax cut they just received.

NOTE: Try to find article from legitimate sources that aren't directly owned by Fox News or Rupert Murdoch

Don't only get you information from one source.

Apple estimated that its direct impact on the American economy would total more than $350 billion over the next five years, but how much that goes beyond what the company would have spent anyway is unclear. Apple’s current pace of spending in the United States is $55 billion for 2018, so it was already on track to spend $275 billion over the next five years.

By shifting the money under the new terms, Apple has saved $43 billion in taxes, more than any other American company, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a research group in Washington.



After the $38 billion tax payment is subtracted, that leaves its new investment at roughly $37 billion over the next five years.

a prominent financial analyst said Apple had consistently spent tens of billions of dollars on areas like staffing and capital expenditures in recent years. Bringing back the overseas cash, he said, does little to aid its expansion. But it makes the company appear to answer Mr. Trump’s call for more jobs to be created in the United States.

Although Republican supporters of the tax law argued that the influx of international profits would create jobs and increase wages, many economists disagreed that a one-time repatriation would have any substantial impact on real investment.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#894 » by Jamaaliver » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:30 pm

nate33 wrote:
Apple to add 20K jobs, pay $38B US tax bill to repatriate cash

Apple (AAPL) on Wednesday said it will create 20,000 new jobs and establish a new U.S.-based campus as part of $350 billion in new "direct contribution" to the economy.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2018/01/17/apple-to-add-20000-jobs-contribute-350b-to-us-economy.amp.html


The added jobs seem a win.

But again. The repatriated cash benefit is overstated:

Paying $38 billion in taxes now is unlikely to strain Apple’s checkbook because the company had already earmarked $36.4 billion in anticipation that it would eventually have to pay taxes on its foreign earnings.


“From a financial statement perspective, it’s going to be a nonevent,” said J. Richard Harvey, a Villanova University law professor and former Internal Revenue Service official.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#895 » by nate33 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:35 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Apple to add 20K jobs, pay $38B US tax bill to repatriate cash

Apple (AAPL) on Wednesday said it will create 20,000 new jobs and establish a new U.S.-based campus as part of $350 billion in new "direct contribution" to the economy.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2018/01/17/apple-to-add-20000-jobs-contribute-350b-to-us-economy.amp.html


The added jobs seem a win.

But again. The repatriated cash benefit is overstated:

Paying $38 billion in taxes now is unlikely to strain Apple’s checkbook because the company had already earmarked $36.4 billion in anticipation that it would eventually have to pay taxes on its foreign earnings.


“From a financial statement perspective, it’s going to be a nonevent,” said J. Richard Harvey, a Villanova University law professor and former Internal Revenue Service official.

Fair enough. I agree. The repatriation isn't that important in terms of direct taxation revenue. The jobs are huge though. It's not just 20,000 jobs. Those 20,000 jobs will require tens of thousands more support jobs. Things like local restaurants, hair salons, home builders, theaters, etc.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#896 » by gtn130 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:36 pm

nate33 wrote:
gtn130 wrote:
nate33 wrote:As usual, thank you for your insightful and witty contribution to the discussion.


You're welcome bro. Care to explain what that congregation of clueless nutjobs tells us about Trump?

About as much as a cherry-picked group of Carrier workers tells us about Trump.


Why do you think the article is about Trump's broad popularity?

Trump promised jobs to factory workers and those factory workers were promptly laid off after a deeply cynical performative, theatrical, fake political event in which Trump made lots of empty promises using workers as pawns for his own political gain.

In your mind that's the same thing as asking six self-identifying Trump supporters why they support Trump.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#897 » by TGW » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:39 pm

our healthcare system in a nutshell:

Some random troll wrote:Not to sound negative, but this team is owned by an arrogant cheapskate, managed by a moron and coached by an idiot. Recipe for disaster.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#898 » by closg00 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:47 pm

nate33 wrote:
Jamaaliver wrote:
nate33 wrote:


The added jobs seem a win.

But again. The repatriated cash benefit is overstated:

Paying $38 billion in taxes now is unlikely to strain Apple’s checkbook because the company had already earmarked $36.4 billion in anticipation that it would eventually have to pay taxes on its foreign earnings.


“From a financial statement perspective, it’s going to be a nonevent,” said J. Richard Harvey, a Villanova University law professor and former Internal Revenue Service official.

Fair enough. I agree. The repatriation isn't that important in terms of direct taxation revenue. The jobs are huge though. It's not just 20,000 jobs. Those 20,000 jobs will require tens of thousands more support jobs. Things like local restaurants, hair salons, home builders, theaters, etc.


Trump has to be given credit for these jobs created as a result of the tax cuts, not sure how-much credit he should get for some of the positive economic numbers as he was riding the Obama recovery.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#899 » by Jamaaliver » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:52 pm

nate33 wrote:Fair enough. I agree. The repatriation isn't that important in terms of direct taxation revenue. The jobs are huge though. It's not just 20,000 jobs. Those 20,000 jobs will require tens of thousands more support jobs. Things like local restaurants, hair salons, home builders, theaters, etc.



Look at that. We have a mutual point of agreement. :clap:

But be careful that you aren't misled by the billion dollar corporation:

Apple said that over the next few years it will significantly add to the 84,000 employees it has in the United States. The new jobs will come from hiring at Apple’s current locations and from a new campus focused on technical support for customers.

The company did not say how much of its investments announced Wednesday were already planned.

It’s not clear how much of a change this is from what the company is currently spending. Apple has spent between $12 billion and $15 billion on projects such as facilities or land globally in the past few years...



I agree this seems like a win. And you seem like a decent, passionate fellow. But don't let the corporate speak convince you that they suddenly decided on all of this in the few weeks since the tax plan was approved.

A fair amount of this expansion was already in the works.

[Apple] also said that it plans to build several new data centers in the United States — including previously announced projects in North Carolina and Iowa — and said it broke ground on a new facility Wednesday in Reno, Nev.

[Apple] is also increasing the size of a previously announced manufacturing fund to support its network of suppliers for parts that go into its devices. This fund has already bankrolled initiatives in Kentucky and Texas.
Washington Post
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#900 » by Jamaaliver » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:57 pm

duplicate

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