Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI

[pcbothwel]

That’s fine. The Kings I’m sure are pefectly content to wait until free agency and make an offer then. Who you going to move Oubre for? He’s a restricted free agent and no other teams have cap space?

Having RFA rights is big.
I dont want to bash your team, really. But I dont get what you or others think SAC has to offer...
You are about to head into one of the biggest FA summers ever as far as cash goes.
Look at the selling points:
- Money: Sorry, but everyone (But us...lol) has some next summer
- Recent History: Kings have been terrible for 10+ years. Not good
- Market: Small market, no history of winning, and in the West
- Positional need: Every team needs wings... nothing special
- Roster: Bad team w/o a "Cant Miss" player...

That last one is important, because its what puts you below a team like the Suns. The first 5 points could be said about PHX as well, but they have Booker and Ayton.
I just dont see how Oubre takes your offer over Brooklyn, Suns, Mavs, LAC, NYK, Bulls, or Orlando.
Unless of course you clearly offer the most money... a problem that would be mitigated if you had his RFA rights.

Again, I dont want to bash your team, but your main selling points are Fox and Bagley. Fox is young, but he was AWFUL last year by any measurement and appears to be a poor mans John Wall... and even Wall has trouble in the modern NBA (PGs that arent great scorers/shooters)
Bagley seems ok, but there are real concerns about him in regards to shooting as well... thats a bad problem to have in the modern NBA as they both seem a better for the previous generation.

Again, no worries here. plenty of teams would happily trade for Oubre, especially ones w/o cap space next summer and want his bird rights (I think NOP happily gives us their 1st and some tax relief at the deadline)

Sure you are happy to bash the team but you are hardly alone so no need to apologize. Just for the record I think the main selling points will be Hield, Giles and Bogdanovic. But I also think it will take this season for that to become apparent.

To get out of the repeater tax you have to send out salary with none coming back. You don’t have a partner to do that.

i think you're missing my argument. You clearly dont value Oubre this year or his RFA status. So we'll send him elsewhere for tax relief and a 1st (NOP is the perfect candidate). We can trade you a 1st instead....

[Sactowndog]

...

...

Just being completely evil - but why not skip dealing with the Wizards and force them into the repeaters tax?

Evil or strategic? My guess is that box is exactly what the Kings do unless the Wiz offer them something they can’t refuse.

[Sactowndog]

Having RFA rights is big.
I dont want to bash your team, really. But I dont get what you or others think SAC has to offer...
You are about to head into one of the biggest FA summers ever as far as cash goes.
Look at the selling points:
- Money: Sorry, but everyone (But us...lol) has some next summer
- Recent History: Kings have been terrible for 10+ years. Not good
- Market: Small market, no history of winning, and in the West
- Positional need: Every team needs wings... nothing special
- Roster: Bad team w/o a "Cant Miss" player...

That last one is important, because its what puts you below a team like the Suns. The first 5 points could be said about PHX as well, but they have Booker and Ayton.
I just dont see how Oubre takes your offer over Brooklyn, Suns, Mavs, LAC, NYK, Bulls, or Orlando.
Unless of course you clearly offer the most money... a problem that would be mitigated if you had his RFA rights.

Again, I dont want to bash your team, but your main selling points are Fox and Bagley. Fox is young, but he was AWFUL last year by any measurement and appears to be a poor mans John Wall... and even Wall has trouble in the modern NBA (PGs that arent great scorers/shooters)
Bagley seems ok, but there are real concerns about him in regards to shooting as well... thats a bad problem to have in the modern NBA as they both seem a better for the previous generation.

Again, no worries here. plenty of teams would happily trade for Oubre, especially ones w/o cap space next summer and want his bird rights (I think NOP happily gives us their 1st and some tax relief at the deadline)

Sure you are happy to bash the team but you are hardly alone so no need to apologize. Just for the record I think the main selling points will be Hield, Giles and Bogdanovic. But I also think it will take this season for that to become apparent.

To get out of the repeater tax you have to send out salary with none coming back. You don’t have a partner to do that.

i think you're missing my argument. You clearly dont value Oubre this year or his RFA status. So we'll send him elsewhere for tax relief and a 1st (NOP is the perfect candidate). We can trade you a 1st instead....

What I’m missing is how you will send elsewhere for tax relief? Every other team is above the cap and has to send salary back. Go to ESPN and try to find a trade with New Orleans that works.

Perhaps you can illustrate your point by posting a trade that works in the ESPN trade machine. By the way you can’t trade next summer unless it’s a sign and trade but not sure why a team would just do a straight sign since the Wiz will be pressed to match.

[pcbothwel]

Sure you are happy to bash the team but you are hardly alone so no need to apologize. Just for the record I think the main selling points will be Hield, Giles and Bogdanovic. But I also think it will take this season for that to become apparent.

To get out of the repeater tax you have to send out salary with none coming back. You don’t have a partner to do that.

i think you're missing my argument. You clearly dont value Oubre this year or his RFA status. So we'll send him elsewhere for tax relief and a 1st (NOP is the perfect candidate). We can trade you a 1st instead....

What I’m missing is how you will send elsewhere for tax relief? Every other team is above the cap and has to send salary back. Go to ESPN and try to find a trade with New Orleans that works.

Perhaps you can illustrate your point by posting a trade that works in the ESPN trade machine. By the way you can’t trade next summer unless it’s a sign and trade but not sure why a team would just do a straight sign since the Wiz will be pressed to match.

Here is the basic framework:
http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y8w5uner
Oubre + Salary to NOP for filler and 1st
Mahinmi and 1st to Kings
Koufos and filler to Wiz

Different iterations:
- Mahinmi to NOP and Solomon Hill to SAC
- different filler

[payitforward]

We are $11.1m over the tax. Trading Oubre, even taking no salary back, doesn't help much w/ getting under the tax line. We'd have to find another trade that sent out $8m+ & took nothing back.

To me at least, this is why it seems so much more likely that we trade one of Wall/Beal/Porter. & why, I'm guessing, the rumor that Beal might be available was floated as a trial balloon earlier this Summer. Perhaps there wasn't enough interest? Perhaps there was, & a tentative deal is in place. Who know?

Is there a trade of Beal to Sacramento that works for us? We can take back $15m+ in salary for this year -- but, we can't take much back for next year when once again, even w/o Beal, we will be struggling to stay out of the tax.

OTOH, at the very least Sac'to would want to load some expiring salaries onto us (Shumpert? Koufos? Mclemore? Willie C-S?), which I'm sure we'd be happy to take as long we still got out of the tax.

Would Sacramento want to acquire Beal? They don't have a single "name" player, so... maybe?

What I'd love to get back for Beal -- i.e. as a benefit beyond this year -- would be Buddy Hield & Harry Giles. Not because Klay Thompson says that Hield is "the next great," but b/c otherwise we'll be playing Austin Rivers. As to Giles, if he has gotten back to where he was as a draft prospect, he can be very very very good.

Still the real benefit would be to get under the tax & take a big step towards fixing our salary structure.

Any interest, Sactowndog?

[payitforward]

i think you're missing my argument. You clearly dont value Oubre this year or his RFA status. So we'll send him elsewhere for tax relief and a 1st (NOP is the perfect candidate). We can trade you a 1st instead....

What I’m missing is how you will send elsewhere for tax relief? Every other team is above the cap and has to send salary back. Go to ESPN and try to find a trade with New Orleans that works.

Perhaps you can illustrate your point by posting a trade that works in the ESPN trade machine. By the way you can’t trade next summer unless it’s a sign and trade but not sure why a team would just do a straight sign since the Wiz will be pressed to match.

Here is the basic framework:
http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y8w5uner
Oubre + Salary to NOP for filler and 1st
Mahinmi and 1st to Kings
Koufos and filler to Wiz

Different iterations:
- Mahinmi to NOP and Solomon Hill to SAC
- different filler

Your trade shows Jason Smith going out rather than Oubre. Still over the tax. If it's Oubre instead of Smith we're still @ $4.5m over the tax.

[pcbothwel]

What I’m missing is how you will send elsewhere for tax relief? Every other team is above the cap and has to send salary back. Go to ESPN and try to find a trade with New Orleans that works.

Perhaps you can illustrate your point by posting a trade that works in the ESPN trade machine. By the way you can’t trade next summer unless it’s a sign and trade but not sure why a team would just do a straight sign since the Wiz will be pressed to match.

Here is the basic framework:
http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y8w5uner
Oubre + Salary to NOP for filler and 1st
Mahinmi and 1st to Kings
Koufos and filler to Wiz

Different iterations:
- Mahinmi to NOP and Solomon Hill to SAC
- different filler

Your trade shows Jason Smith going out rather than Oubre. Still over the tax. If it's Oubre instead of Smith we're still @ $4.5m over the tax.

Oubre is traded for the TPE, which doesnt work in the TradeChecker. Both are traded which gets us right at the tax.
Like I said, its a framework. Meeks can be included as well.

[payitforward]

Got it. That leaves us with $101.5m going to 6 players the following year -- Wall, Beal, Porter, Satoransky, Brown & Bryant.

Presumably we want to keep Satoransky, so actually we extend him next Summer. I'd say he's earned a $5m raise. So make that $106.5m to those 6 guys.

But, if we've decided we want to retain Bryant, then surely we don't want to let him become unrestricted either, right? So maybe it's a little more than that for the 6 guys -- call it $108m.

At this point, we are looking at a team that has developed exactly two guys acquired since June 2013 -- 6 years at that point. Pathetic.

But, we still have our R1 pick I believe. Assuming we pick at the same spot as this year, we are at @$110.5m for 7 guys. We're substantially over the cap with a need for 7 more players.

We sign vet min players at this point. So, this would be the testing point for your thesis that we can be a good team while filling spots 8-14 with veteran minimum players. At the same time, we do have 2 exceptions. But, of course we want to stay out of the tax.

Who are the candidates you might have in mind to fill out the roster?

[Sactowndog]

i think you're missing my argument. You clearly dont value Oubre this year or his RFA status. So we'll send him elsewhere for tax relief and a 1st (NOP is the perfect candidate). We can trade you a 1st instead....

What I’m missing is how you will send elsewhere for tax relief? Every other team is above the cap and has to send salary back. Go to ESPN and try to find a trade with New Orleans that works.

Perhaps you can illustrate your point by posting a trade that works in the ESPN trade machine. By the way you can’t trade next summer unless it’s a sign and trade but not sure why a team would just do a straight sign since the Wiz will be pressed to match.

Here is the basic framework:
http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y8w5uner
Oubre + Salary to NOP for filler and 1st
Mahinmi and 1st to Kings
Koufos and filler to Wiz

Different iterations:
- Mahinmi to NOP and Solomon Hill to SAC
- different filler

Except the Kings likely don’t want that unless it is a good first. How do you make a trade happen without the Kings?

[Sactowndog]

We are $11.1m over the tax. Trading Oubre, even taking no salary back, doesn't help much w/ getting under the tax line. We'd have to find another trade that sent out $8m+ & took nothing back.

To me at least, this is why it seems so much more likely that we trade one of Wall/Beal/Porter. & why, I'm guessing, the rumor that Beal might be available was floated as a trial balloon earlier this Summer. Perhaps there wasn't enough interest? Perhaps there was, & a tentative deal is in place. Who know?

Is there a trade of Beal to Sacramento that works for us? We can take back $15m+ in salary for this year -- but, we can't take much back for next year when once again, even w/o Beal, we will be struggling to stay out of the tax.

OTOH, at the very least Sac'to would want to load some expiring salaries onto us (Shumpert? Koufos? Mclemore? Willie C-S?), which I'm sure we'd be happy to take as long we still got out of the tax.

Would Sacramento want to acquire Beal? They don't have a single "name" player, so... maybe?

What I'd love to get back for Beal -- i.e. as a benefit beyond this year -- would be Buddy Hield & Harry Giles. Not because Klay Thompson says that Hield is "the next great," but b/c otherwise we'll be playing Austin Rivers. As to Giles, if he has gotten back to where he was as a draft prospect, he can be very very very good.

Still the real benefit would be to get under the tax & take a big step towards fixing our salary structure.

Any interest, Sactowndog?

Perhaps a Buddy trade but they won’t trade Giles. I think the Kings would have more interest in Porter.

[payitforward]

Certainly intelligent not to trade Giles -- he's a low risk high reward bet!

Equally intelligent to prefer Porter to Beal. But, I do too! I don't want to trade Otto Porter.

[payitforward]

...this would be the testing point for your thesis that we can be a good team while filling spots 8-14 with veteran minimum players. ...Who are the candidates you might have in mind to fill out the roster?

pcbothwei -- I mean this "challenge", if you view it that way, in the most positive sense.

That is, I feel certain that if we could have our pick among all the vet min guys, & take the 5-7 that we preferred, we could "be a good team" -- maybe a very good team!

But, by "we," I don't mean Ernie -- I mean you & me & the rest of this board. That's why I'm asking who your candidates would be. I'll come up with my own list today/tomorrow I hope.

[payitforward]

I just learned something interesting: although veteran minimum salaries go up based on the years of experience of the player, so that with 10 years in the league, Jeff Green costs us $2.4m, only $1.5m of that counts against the cap/tax -- the amount he'd be paid were he a 2-year player. This is in order not to incentivize teams to sign younger players.

So, if we signed 5 vet min players, the most they would count against the luxury tax would be $7.5m.

[pcbothwel]

Got it. That leaves us with $101.5m going to 6 players the following year -- Wall, Beal, Porter, Satoransky, Brown & Bryant.

Presumably we want to keep Satoransky, so actually we extend him next Summer. I'd say he's earned a $5m raise. So make that $106.5m to those 6 guys.

But, if we've decided we want to retain Bryant, then surely we don't want to let him become unrestricted either, right? So maybe it's a little more than that for the 6 guys -- call it $108m.

At this point, we are looking at a team that has developed exactly two guys acquired since June 2013 -- 6 years at that point. Pathetic.

But, we still have our R1 pick I believe. Assuming we pick at the same spot as this year, we are at @$110.5m for 7 guys. We're substantially over the cap with a need for 7 more players.

We sign vet min players at this point. So, this would be the testing point for your thesis that we can be a good team while filling spots 8-14 with veteran minimum players. At the same time, we do have 2 exceptions. But, of course we want to stay out of the tax.

Who are the candidates you might have in mind to fill out the roster?

PIF,
I have Wall, Beal, Otto, Dwight, Brown, Bryant, 2019 1st (#22). That is 7 players for 104.8M with a tax level of 131M and apron around 139M.
- Lets assume Sato for 3/21M (Starting salary of 6.5M)
- Now at 111M with 8 players
- I'd look to use Kieffs Bird rights to bring him back for a 2/10M deal
- Now at 116M with 9 players
- Now add the Full MLE (Non Tax payer) starting at 9.1M
- Now at 125M with 10 players
- Lets add to Vet min players at 1.6M each
- Now at 128.5M with 12 players

We are now at a 12 player team, sitting 8.5M under the Apron (2.5M under tax), and would still have the Bi-Annual Exception.
Also, I assumed the Full MLE on 1 player. But I could very much see it spent on 2 players (Player A for 6M and Player B for 3M)

MLE candidates - Aminu, Tyreke, KCP, Gay, Danny Green, Hezonja, Muscala, KOQ, etc.

There is also buffer in here for another 1M for each Sato and Kieff if necessary, though I doubt it.

Wall / Sato
Beal / Sato
Otto / Brown
Aminu / Kieff
Dwight / Bryant / Kieff

You can add in a Rookie anywhere, and there would still be good minutes in either the Backcourt or Wing for a Vet to play.

[pcbothwel]

I just learned something interesting: although veteran minimum salaries go up based on the years of experience of the player, so that with 10 years in the league, Jeff Green costs us $2.4m, only $1.5m of that counts against the cap/tax -- the amount he'd be paid were he a 2-year player. This is in order not to incentivize teams to sign younger players.

So, if we signed 5 vet min players, the most they would count against the luxury tax would be $7.5m.

Exactly. Vince Carter, Devin Harris, Frye, Amir, Zaza, Felton, McGee, Jeff & Gerald Green, Calderon, Jerebko, Monroe, etc.
All signed for Vet Min but only count 1.6M against the cap. Same will happen next year

[payitforward]

PIF,
I have Wall, Beal, Otto, Dwight, Brown, Bryant, 2019 1st (#22). That is 7 players for 104.8M ...

I have that combo at $105,126,930 -- a trivial difference

- Lets assume Sato for 3/21M (Starting salary of 6.5M)

Sato improved enormously last year. If he plays at last year's level, I just do not believe we will be able to sign him for that $. If he improves again, it's hard to predict how high the market for him will be. But, we'll see. So stay as close as I can to your scenario but still present something that seems more realistic to me, I'll put Sato at $8m.

...use Kieffs Bird rights to bring him back for a 2/10M deal

Kieff wouldn't be on my list to bring back. But, I'm really concerned the FO will give him a raise instead of dropping his salary! But, again... we'll see.

...add the Full MLE (Non Tax payer) starting at 9.1M... (and) two Vet min players at 1.6M each... 128.5M with 12 player s...(2.5M under tax),...

...we would still have the Bi-Annual Exception.

Whereas I have us at 11 players & $125m.

...MLE candidates - Aminu, Tyreke, KCP, Gay, Danny Green, Hezonja, Muscala, KOQ, etc.

Are these guys candidates for the full MLE? For $6m? For $3m? Aminu is making $7m; can't see him going down. Tyreke is making $12.5m; unless he busts this year, he won't be available. KCP is making $12m. Gay is over $10m, Green is at $10m. No interest in either Hezonja or Muscala. I expect KOQ to earn himself a raise this season. He's underpaid.

Do you have in mind using the MLE to build the actual core of our team? E.g. signing someone for 3 years? Or, do we never need to do that? If we do, what does that do to the following year's pay structure.

Wall / Sato
Beal / Sato
Otto / Brown
Aminu / Kieff
Dwight / Bryant / Kieff.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it strikes me now that your idea of "building a good team" is staying as good as we are. Good enough to average 45 wins over the last 5 seasons in the weaker conference, making the playoffs 4 of those years, getting into R2 3 times, never getting to the conference finals.

Although you suggest that it's possible to be a good team w/ 5-6 veteran minimum players, you don't seem to have any actual targets for who they'd be. Even in the case of the MLE, I don't get the sense that you've spent time thinking hard about needs and opportunities.

The rotation above seems to confirm that -- with the exception of your having slotted Aminu to start at PF, it's the same old same old plus some big assumptions about Brown & Bryant.

I was and still am hoping for some ways that we can change from that mediocre EC team. Hey, you may not think that's possible!

[pcbothwel]

PIF,
I have Wall, Beal, Otto, Dwight, Brown, Bryant, 2019 1st (#22). That is 7 players for 104.8M ...

I have that combo at $105,126,930 -- a trivial difference

- Lets assume Sato for 3/21M (Starting salary of 6.5M)

Sato improved enormously last year. If he plays at last year's level, I just do not believe we will be able to sign him for that $. If he improves again, it's hard to predict how high the market for him will be. But, we'll see. So stay as close as I can to your scenario but still present something that seems more realistic to me, I'll put Sato at $8m.

...use Kieffs Bird rights to bring him back for a 2/10M deal

Kieff wouldn't be on my list to bring back. But, I'm really concerned the FO will give him a raise instead of dropping his salary! But, again... we'll see.

...add the Full MLE (Non Tax payer) starting at 9.1M... (and) two Vet min players at 1.6M each... 128.5M with 12 player s...(2.5M under tax),...

...we would still have the Bi-Annual Exception.

Whereas I have us at 11 players & $125m.

...MLE candidates - Aminu, Tyreke, KCP, Gay, Danny Green, Hezonja, Muscala, KOQ, etc.

Are these guys candidates for the full MLE? For $6m? For $3m? Aminu is making $7m; can't see him going down. Tyreke is making $12.5m; unless he busts this year, he won't be available. KCP is making $12m. Gay is over $10m, Green is at $10m. No interest in either Hezonja or Muscala. I expect KOQ to earn himself a raise this season. He's underpaid.

Do you have in mind using the MLE to build the actual core of our team? E.g. signing someone for 3 years? Or, do we never need to do that? If we do, what does that do to the following year's pay structure.

Wall / Sato
Beal / Sato
Otto / Brown
Aminu / Kieff
Dwight / Bryant / Kieff.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it strikes me now that your idea of "building a good team" is staying as good as we are. Good enough to average 45 wins over the last 5 seasons in the weaker conference, making the playoffs 4 of those years, getting into R2 3 times, never getting to the conference finals.

Although you suggest that it's possible to be a good team w/ 5-6 veteran minimum players, you don't seem to have any actual targets for who they'd be. Even in the case of the MLE, I don't get the sense that you've spent time thinking hard about needs and opportunities.

The rotation above seems to confirm that -- with the exception of your having slotted Aminu to start at PF, it's the same old same old plus some big assumptions about Brown & Bryant.

I was and still am hoping for some ways that we can change from that mediocre EC team. Hey, you may not think that's possible!

PIF,
Sato: I already said I left some breathing room for an increase, but you are overvaluing his market. Kyle Anderson is a significantly better player and 3 years younger and he only got the MLE. Davis Bertans is a really good comp, and he signed for 2/14M

MLE: The guys i listed are an array of players and will get different amounts. No need to predict the exact salary 1 year away...seems like a waste of time. That said, You again are overshooting the market. Yes, Im sure guys like Aminu, Tyreke, Green, KCP would be able to land a deal of 8-12M... But for one year. Tyreke will be 30 and Aminu 29, they might prefer a 3-4 year deal at a lower annual amount.
Danny Green will be 32 and is NOWHERE NEAR the player he was when he signed his last contract. Same with Aminu
KOQ...LOL. They guy just came off the best two year stretch you could ask for and the best he could to was 1/4.5M. He is a slow pace/half court center that plays below the rim and cant shoot 3's. If you cant rim run or shoot from 3, your pay-scale is limited.

Team: This is based off the fact that the team finally breaks through much in the way of 2 years ago. This allows us to put a compelling team on the court this year and obviously next. We then can trade either Brad or Otto if we need a reboot.
If this team falls apart this year, then obviously this plan doesnt come to fruition.

That said, you say "Same old team"... ugghh. Yeah, we have 3 AS caliber players, a HOF Center, two very good rotational pieces in Sato and MLE player... complimented by Troy Brown and our 2019 1st round pick... while maintaining our future picks.

Where is the flaw?

[payitforward]

PIF,
Sato: I already said I left some breathing room for an increase, but you are overvaluing his market. Kyle Anderson is a significantly better player and 3 years younger and he only got the MLE. Davis Bertans is a really good comp, and he signed for 2/14M

MLE: The guys i listed are an array of players and will get different amounts. No need to predict the exact salary 1 year away...seems like a waste of time. That said, You again are overshooting the market. Yes, Im sure guys like Aminu, Tyreke, Green, KCP would be able to land a deal of 8-12M... But for one year. Tyreke will be 30 and Aminu 29, they might prefer a 3-4 year deal at a lower annual amount.
Danny Green will be 32 and is NOWHERE NEAR the player he was when he signed his last contract. Same with Aminu
KOQ...LOL. They guy just came off the best two year stretch you could ask for and the best he could to was 1/4.5M. He is a slow pace/half court center that plays below the rim and cant shoot 3's. If you cant rim run or shoot from 3, your pay-scale is limited.

Team: This is based off the fact that the team finally breaks through much in the way of 2 years ago. This allows us to put a compelling team on the court this year and obviously next. We then can trade either Brad or Otto if we need a reboot.
If this team falls apart this year, then obviously this plan doesnt come to fruition.

That said, you say "Same old team"... ugghh. Yeah, we have 3 AS caliber players, a HOF Center, two very good rotational pieces in Sato and MLE player... complimented by Troy Brown and our 2019 1st round pick... while maintaining our future picks.

Where is the flaw?

Other than being unnecessarily mean to Kyle O'Quinn ( ), your points are all quite reasonable. There's room to differ, but that's usually the case:

Sato -- Anderson's not "significantly better" than Sato. His being so much younger made it worth signing him for 4 years but doesn't make him worth more next year. &, again, if he plays at the same level this year as last, Sato's value will be upgraded based on 2 terrific seasons in a row. If he plays better.... Overall, he's a pretty good comp for Sato. Plus, next year's market's going to be quite unusual. Lots of $$.... If I pegged Tomas Satoransky a little high, it can't be by much!

MLE guys -- Again, you might well be right. I'm more interested in the other question I had: with this MLE acquisition, are we trying to add to our core, build our team? I.e., is this like Memphis signing Kyle Anderson? Or, do you see this as a glorified vet min signing -- i.e. a much better rent-a-player than a vet min, who therefore also costs much more than a vet min? But, still, a 1 or 2 year vet who's filling a hole but isn't part of our core.

Team -- Agreed. Adding a quality player w/ the MLE should certainly leave us a better team for this year than the 49-win team -- if you assume, as we all hope will be the case, that the "big 3" are all healthy & have great years. Certainly, Howard should be better than Gortat (emphasis on "should" for obvious reasons). Rivers is a problem if he plays a lot, but hey we had some terrible play from a number of bench guys that year.

As to "Same old team," I didn't mean that quite the way you are taking it. Just that I'm focused on the team's future, on building not patching with "pieces."

IOW, while it was fun to have Paul Pierce for a year, it didn't build the team going forward, & the following year we missed the playoffs. A better GM (& a franchise focused on winning rather than on marketing a product to its fans) would have made moves to enhance our core.

& that's why I ask about the MLE. E.g. I'd have been stoked if we'd signed Kyle Anderson for 4 years! We had no room b/c of our repeated & colossally stupid player evaluation choices -- hence my concerns about Morris. About a poor/short-term choice using the MLE. About who the vet min guys are that are actual bargains (rather than Scott/Green types) & not whether the back end of the roster can or should be built that way.

[pcbothwel]

PIF,
The Full Non Tax payer MLE is an interesting tool for us next year. GSW, Rockets, Thunder, Celtics, Raptors are too expensive. LAL & Philly have the cap space, but will definitely not waste it on MLE type deals.

I think a guy like Mirotic, Tyreke, or Derrick Favors will be available for that amount.

Wall / Sato
Beal / Rookie
Otto / Brown
Mirotic / Kieff / Otto
Dwight / Bryant / Kieff

That team beats every team in the East except Boston, but if they lose Kyrie...

Enjoy for 1 year, then move one of the big 3 for filler and picks from a team trying to make a run. Allows us to be a playoff team, but still have premium picks.

Bucks with Giannis, OKC with Westbrook/PG, Magic with Gordon, Bamba & Isaac, Knicks with Porzingis, Mavs with Doncic & Smith, Bulls with Carter & Markkenen, etc. are all teams that I see wanting to make a serious run in 20/21

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I follow your thinking. You are rolling the dice for a year, then starting to look towards the next generation of the Wizards.

I'm not a fan of Mirotic, but thinking about Evans & Favors has given me an idea. I wonder whether we couldn't both roll the dice & start on the future? (Note that this is wild speculation -- trying to widen our thinking)

You were at 116M with 9 players: Wall, Beal, Otto, Dwight, Brown, Bryant, 2019 1st (#22), Sato & Kieff. Suppose we were to trade Beal & not to re-sign Kieff.

Without considering for the moment what we'd take back for Beal, that would leave us at 7 players for $84m. Now, if Tyreke & Favors are both available in that MLE $ tier, we can sign one of them w/o using an exception & the other with the MLE.

Now we're back at 9 guys, but for @$102m instead of $116m. It will be much easier for us to stay under the tax & add more talent than in the other scenario.

Overall, we might well have gotten better: Favors is a different kind of player from Morris, but... overall he is enormously more productive. Evans has been streaky throughout his career. At his best, however, he is undoubtedly better than Beal has yet been. He certainly was last year.

I can't see how we'd be worse. Again, we are "rolling the dice" either way, in the hope of having a killer season before we start making large-scale changes to the roster. Doing this, I don't think we've lessened our chance of rolling a short-term winner. Plus, we've started on those changes. Plus, we are pretty sure to stay out of the luxury tax.

Wall / Sato
Tyreke / Rookie
Otto / Brown
Favors / Otto
Dwight / Bryant / Favors

Depending on what we took back for Beal, we might also have had a chance to sign another player while under the cap -- say a solid backup SG or a young guy worth giving more runway.

Now, in this post I'm trying to play your game. Your premise was that a year later we trade Beal or Porter. Once we accept that, in this case, Beal will be leaving the following year, it makes sense to see if there's a scenario where we get the same or better short term results by moving him a year earlier.

Would you say this revision accomplishes that goal? If not, what am I missing?