2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[payitforward]

SGA is a great example of not needing a top pick to draft a great player—a point that PIF endlessly reminds us of.

SGA was the 11th pick in the 2018 draft.

That, imo, debunks the notion that you can predict the quality of a draft even before it happens. Because it’s impossible to tell in advance how a player—or a draft—will turn out. (Unless that player is a LeBron or Wemby.)

Of course you don't "need" a top pick to draft a great player. Look at our very own Gilbert Arenas. Then you have Kobe. And Jokic. You have Kawhi, PG and Jimmy Butler. You also have Giannis. But if those teams really knew what they were getting, they would have traded up to get them no? They wouldn't have risked someone else taking them. Who are the stars that the Wizards have had since 2000. I'm not counting MJ. Maybe you can count Stackhouse. Arenas was a star, we lucked into signing him and then injuries destroyed him. Wizards homers will disagree but at any point during Wall's career was he ever a top 3 pg? I loved Beal but this season exposed him. In a league dominated by stars, those guys simply aren't going to get it done.

How long should the Wizards tank? Until they get a truly generational star. That's how long. If it means trading Kuzma and Poole I'd trade Kuzma and Poole. If it means trading Avdija, I'd trade Avdija. What is the 76ers rebuild without Embiid? What are the Bucks without Giannis? What are the Nuggets without Jokic? The NBA is a star driven league.

I agree fundamentally with everything here, save one. I don't think Beal was suddenly found out this year. Beals prime which is funny because his actual career trajectory perfectly reflects it, was 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. He almost perfectly matches the data for it which finds that players typically begin falling off as they enter their age 28 season, for Beal, his last great season was age 27, but in fairness, that was in a sort of Mad Max imploded roster situation where he was just green lighted in everything and so scored a bazillion points, made the all star game etc and then, the following year in '21-'22 we saw the collapse which mirrors what typically begins for players. The Suns basically acquired a Beal who was mathematically based on the science, already several years into his decline (the math would say he was basically 3 years into the fall off at the point 23-24 kicked off).

Personally that's just being persnickety, Beal was in the hall of good to very good, not great. We haven't had a truly great player in his prime since probably the 1970's, and maybe Webber, although Webber's career went sideways on both us, and later due to injury with Sacramento.

True enough to say that Brad was a very very good player but not really a "great" one. But, odd not to notice that he had an absolutely outstanding season for Phoenix this year! One of his very best as a pro.

[AFM]

Absolutely. Brad had an incredible year.

[Tyrone Messby]

Comp may have already been made but does Reed remind anyone else a bit of Steve Nash? He probably goes to the Spurs and becomes a household name with Wemby.

[The Consiglieri]

Right, let's trade Deni for "Mr Hypothetical to be named later".

Cool story bro.

The Beal comparison makes no sense. We had tried for years to build a competitive team around Wall and Beal. After several years it was clear it wasn't going to happen.
That is a completely different scenario.

I think I've been pretty clear that two separate contradictory things are true:

#1: That his value is something we get nothing out of because we will suck during the bulk of his cheap deal. The asset that his deal is, is valuable to competitive teams, not horrible teams. So matching his value to a team that could actually use it would be wise.

.

Actually Deni's contract makes it easier for us to aquire a star through free agency or trades. Or we can aquire more draft picks by taking on a bad contract. That's how the Cavs got the pick that turned into Kyrie.

How do we acquire said star? What do we offer? Nobody is coming here through free agency we would want. Trades would be a possibility but what star are we trading for w/what is here? There's nothing to trade other than Deni himself or Bilal that could come anywhere remotely close to a star. I just can't see how that's done. I get the feasibility if there was a star in place, there isn't though and to acquire a star would require something of tangible value which we wouldn't want to trade anyway. We've already traded all those guys other than I suppose Kuzma, but if people are only willing to trade late 1sts for Kuzma, it's a stretch for me to imagine a star coming in for him.

[tontoz]

I think I've been pretty clear that two separate contradictory things are true:

#1: That his value is something we get nothing out of because we will suck during the bulk of his cheap deal. The asset that his deal is, is valuable to competitive teams, not horrible teams. So matching his value to a team that could actually use it would be wise.

.

Actually Deni's contract makes it easier for us to aquire a star through free agency or trades. Or we can aquire more draft picks by taking on a bad contract. That's how the Cavs got the pick that turned into Kyrie.

How do we acquire said star? What do we offer? Nobody is coming here through free agency we would want. Trades would be a possibility but what star are we trading for w/what is here? There's nothing to trade other than Deni himself or Bilal that could come anywhere remotely close to a star. I just can't see how that's done. I get the feasibility if there was a star in place, there isn't though and to acquire a star would require something of tangible value which we wouldn't want to trade anyway. We've already traded all those guys other than I suppose Kuzma, but if people are only willing to trade late 1sts for Kuzma, it's a stretch for me to imagine a star coming in for him.

Stars will go where they can get paid. DC is not a small market. We aren't Milwaukee or OKC. Players avoided us because everyone knew we had incompetent management. That isn't the case any more, at least i hope not.

One thing i know for sure is that you can't sign a max free agent if you don't have max cap space. Money and shots are typically what young players want, in that order. Young guys will frequently go to a lessor team to get paid and play a bigger role.

[The Consiglieri]

Absolutely. Brad had an incredible year.

It's odd, his #'s look interesting and in many cases, career highs, and yet everyone in Phoenix regards the trade and the contract as a huge and epic disaster. Scouts and media down there crapping all over him, press during the playoffs was super negative. Rather odd.

[The Consiglieri]

Actually Deni's contract makes it easier for us to aquire a star through free agency or trades. Or we can aquire more draft picks by taking on a bad contract. That's how the Cavs got the pick that turned into Kyrie.

How do we acquire said star? What do we offer? Nobody is coming here through free agency we would want. Trades would be a possibility but what star are we trading for w/what is here? There's nothing to trade other than Deni himself or Bilal that could come anywhere remotely close to a star. I just can't see how that's done. I get the feasibility if there was a star in place, there isn't though and to acquire a star would require something of tangible value which we wouldn't want to trade anyway. We've already traded all those guys other than I suppose Kuzma, but if people are only willing to trade late 1sts for Kuzma, it's a stretch for me to imagine a star coming in for him.

Stars will go where they can get paid. DC is not a small market. We aren't Milwaukee or OKC. Players avoided us because everyone knew we had incompetent management. That isn't the case any more, at least i hope not.

One thing i know for sure is that you can't sign a max free agent if you don't have max cap space. Money and shots are typically what young players want, in that order. Young guys will frequently go to a lessor team to get paid and play a bigger role.

I don't believe elite players will EVER come here until there is sustained success. We might be able to draw broken down formerly elite players looking for a last pay day, but elite FA's in their prime? I don't think any come here until they know they can contend there which means we have to build a winner first, then they will come. I'm not saying we have to win championships first, but we do have to look capable of doing it, and I don't see any chance at all that that happens before 2027 or 2028 at the earliest, and I think even that is highly unlikely.

Elite, superstars do not go to rebuilding dumpster fires, they try to force their way to opportunities where the $$$ is there along with the contention possibilities. Management is only part of the problem, same with the history of suck that goes back 45 years. This team has a historical stench on it which has been killing it for five decades, but it also has a fundamental reality that it is one of the worst two franchises in the NBA right now, and it actually has a worst roster than the worst team in the NBA. Nobody is coming here that's a star in 2024, 2025, or 2026, and by that point the contract begins to lose its value, especially if I'm right and we continue to be unattractive through 2027 and possibly '28.

I do think the guys we have now can build something here, but I think one of the areas I differ is that I think even if we hit one grand slam in the draft, we're still probably 4 years away, we need to probably hit 2 in the draft in the next 3 years to avoid a 5-6 year plan, the most likely scenario of a successful rebuild, probably takes to 2028 or 2029 to see us win a single playoff series, and even that is a question mark, for now. No elite FA is coming here under that scenario. The only asterisk situation I could see it happening is if we land superstars back to back in '25, and '26, now that would change everything, but that's back to back miracles, and we rarely even get one miracle every 25 years let alone a miracle in back to back years.

[80sballboy]

Absolutely. Brad had an incredible year.

It's odd, his #'s look interesting and in many cases, career highs, and yet everyone in Phoenix regards the trade and the contract as a huge and epic disaster. Scouts and media down there crapping all over him, press during the playoffs was super negative. Rather odd.

He played 53 games. Yes, he shot the ball well in those games, but he's now averaging 52 games per season over his last five. Dude was also a turnover machine in their brief postseason run. Good riddance.

[AFM]

Absolutely. Brad had an incredible year.

It's odd, his #'s look interesting and in many cases, career highs, and yet everyone in Phoenix regards the trade and the contract as a huge and epic disaster. Scouts and media down there crapping all over him, press during the playoffs was super negative. Rather odd.

He played 53 games. Yes, he shot the ball well in those games, but he's now averaging 52 games per season over his last five. Dude was also a turnover machine in their brief postseason Good riddance.

Yeah, I was being sarcastic. What a terrible decision by PHX.

[The Consiglieri]

Absolutely. Brad had an incredible year.

It's odd, his #'s look interesting and in many cases, career highs, and yet everyone in Phoenix regards the trade and the contract as a huge and epic disaster. Scouts and media down there crapping all over him, press during the playoffs was super negative. Rather odd.

He played 53 games. Yes, he shot the ball well in those games, but he's now averaging 52 games per season over his last five. Dude was also a turnover machine in their brief postseason Good riddance.

No doubt, we got a potential, and I emphasize potential, steal of a deal in the pick swaps thrown in (or fought over, who knows). That is the one and only piece of the deal that wasn't a total screw job because of the mishandling of him as an asset from 2019-2022.

I'm very, very, very happy to see him go and its telling that all of suns media, internal scouts quoted on him etc view that trade as horrible for them, even considering it cost them nothing of current value (at the time of the trade).

[tontoz]

I don't believe elite players will EVER come here until there is sustained success. We might be able to draw broken down formerly elite players looking for a last pay day, but elite FA's in their prime? I don't think any come here until they know they can contend there which means we have to build a winner first, then they will come. I'm not saying we have to win championships first, but we do have to look capable of doing it, and I don't see any chance at all that that happens before 2027 or 2028 at the earliest, and I think even that is highly unlikely.

Elite, superstars do not go to rebuilding dumpster fires, they try to force their way to opportunities where the $$$ is there along with the contention possibilities.

I was following Atlanta when Joe Johnson left a title contender to join a 13 win team. Harden left a Finals team to join a weak Houston team. Kyrie left Lebron after winning a title. Young guys aren't chasing titles, they are chasing money and shots. They want to be the man.

Most of them get the chance to do that with the team that drafted them. With the luxury tax getting more penal it will get harder for teams to resign their own stars.

[The Consiglieri]

It's odd, his #'s look interesting and in many cases, career highs, and yet everyone in Phoenix regards the trade and the contract as a huge and epic disaster. Scouts and media down there crapping all over him, press during the playoffs was super negative. Rather odd.

He played 53 games. Yes, he shot the ball well in those games, but he's now averaging 52 games per season over his last five. Dude was also a turnover machine in their brief postseason Good riddance.

Yeah, I was being sarcastic. What a terrible decision by PHX.

He does have some career #'s in there that are interesting in terms of efficiently, his 3, he efficency with his 2's, etc. He was doing some things right, but I think the key thing is that getting the big 3 has made some big teams make some stupid, really stupid decisions with handling of untradable contracts. The Lakers traded for Westbrook because they had to have their 3rd big time guy, the Suns traded for Beal because they needed a third guy (or 4th I guess) etc. Sometimes they just force things. Otoh, they had this build, and what could they do? They rolled the dice, just don't include pick swaps when you're built around flighty players that have played on four different teams in just the past decade.

[prime1time]

Right, let's trade Deni for "Mr Hypothetical to be named later".

Cool story bro.

The Beal comparison makes no sense. We had tried for years to build a competitive team around Wall and Beal. After several years it was clear it wasn't going to happen.
That is a completely different scenario.

I think I've been pretty clear that two separate contradictory things are true:

#1: That his value is something we get nothing out of because we will suck during the bulk of his cheap deal. The asset that his deal is, is valuable to competitive teams, not horrible teams. So matching his value to a team that could actually use it would be wise.

.

Actually Deni's contract makes it easier for us to aquire a star through free agency or trades. Or we can aquire more draft picks by taking on a bad contract. That's how the Cavs got the pick that turned into Kyrie.

I expect us to do this a lot. But as far as Kyrie and the Cavs go. They weren't doing to well before LBJ went back to Cleveland.

[The Consiglieri]

I don't believe elite players will EVER come here until there is sustained success. We might be able to draw broken down formerly elite players looking for a last pay day, but elite FA's in their prime? I don't think any come here until they know they can contend there which means we have to build a winner first, then they will come. I'm not saying we have to win championships first, but we do have to look capable of doing it, and I don't see any chance at all that that happens before 2027 or 2028 at the earliest, and I think even that is highly unlikely.

Elite, superstars do not go to rebuilding dumpster fires, they try to force their way to opportunities where the $$$ is there along with the contention possibilities.

I was following Atlanta when Joe Johnson left a title contender to join a 13 win team. Harden left a Finals team to join a weak Houston team. Kyrie left Lebron after winning a title. Young guys aren't chasing titles, they are chasing money and shots. They want to be the man.

Most of them get the chance to do that with the team that drafted them. With the luxury tax getting more penal it will get harder for teams to resign their own stars.

I never saw Joe Johnson as a franchise guy. Harden and Kyrie are bad examples to me as both are major head case loons that are like nobody else in the NBA. I wouldn't use them as a model of as they are uniquely odd. I'm quite confident we will draw absolutely no one of in prime star status in free agency the next 3 offseasons (including this one) but I appreciate you providing some examples, I will note that all of them left to be part of big rebuilds elsewhere, Kyrie going to join Boston and later the Nets, and then Dallas, Harden has chased money AND contention, pushing to get out of any scenario immediately when they don't provide both. And both, again, are loons. I don't want to build around idiot flatearthers, or Harden's and I'm skeptical we could pull anyone idiot, or not, during the bulk of his cheap contract (Deni's).

[tontoz]

I think I've been pretty clear that two separate contradictory things are true:

#1: That his value is something we get nothing out of because we will suck during the bulk of his cheap deal. The asset that his deal is, is valuable to competitive teams, not horrible teams. So matching his value to a team that could actually use it would be wise.

.

Actually Deni's contract makes it easier for us to aquire a star through free agency or trades. Or we can aquire more draft picks by taking on a bad contract. That's how the Cavs got the pick that turned into Kyrie.

I expect us to do this a lot. But as far as Kyrie and the Cavs go. They weren't doing to well before LBJ went back to Cleveland.

That's because they had incompetent management, as we've had for decades. But they got the first pick in the draft just by taking on a bad Baron Davis contract.

[tontoz]

I never saw Joe Johnson as a franchise guy. Harden and Kyrie are bad examples to me as both are major head case loons that are like nobody else in the NBA. I wouldn't use them as a model of as they are uniquely odd. I'm quite confident we will draw absolutely no one of in prime star status in free agency the next 3 offseasons (including this one) but I appreciate you providing some examples, I will note that all of them left to be part of big rebuilds elsewhere, Kyrie going to join Boston and later the Nets, and then Dallas, Harden has chased money AND contention, pushing to get out of any scenario immediately when they don't provide both. And both, again, are loons. I don't want to build around idiot flatearthers, or Harden's and I'm skeptical we could pull anyone idiot, or not, during the bulk of his cheap contract (Deni's).

It doesn't matter what you saw in JJ. He made the All Star game 7 times. Beal only made it 3 times. Harden won an MVP and almost took down a dynasty in the playoffs. He probably would have if CP3 didnt get hurt. Kyrie is a game away from making the Finals again.

Speaking of odd do you have any examples of rebuilding teams trading away a good young player like Deni because they might not be good in a few years?

[payitforward]

This is kind of fun & interesting: https://nbadraftroom.com/gut-feeling-big-board-ranking-the-2024-prospects-based-purely-on-gut-feeling/

[nate33]

Speaking of odd do you have any examples of rebuilding teams trading away a good young player like Deni because they might not be good in a few years?

Yeah, history shows that this does not happen.

Teams usually only trade good young-and-improving young players if the team is already on the precipice of contention and they would rather trade the up-and-comer for a win-now star. Examples include:

Phoenix trading Mikal Bridges for Durant
OKC trading Oladipo and Sabonis for Paul George
NY trading Barrett and Quickley for Anunoby

The only trade I can think of that comes close to what Consiglieri talks of would be Philly trading Jrue Holiday for Nerlens Noel and a FRP just after Jrue made the All-Star game in his 4th season. But that was just as new management took over and started "the process. That trade led to 3 straight years of sub-20 wins (and a 4th year at just 28 wins) before Philly climbed out of the basement.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I get both sides of the argument. I think about Myles Turner and how grateful he was to the Pacers' organization for not trading him when they had multiple offers on the table for him for the past few seasons. I think Deni would feel the same way.

The Pacers themselves tried multiple times to trade Turner..

I do think that Deni would be grateful for that though... I really think he wants to be here (but maybe I am projecting).

I think Deni would love the opportunity to play on a winning team and for a better organization.

Daniel Gafford was freed from jail. Deni Advija would become a star in OKC or on a handful of contenders.

[payitforward]

Absolutely. Brad had an incredible year.

It's odd, his #'s look interesting and in many cases, career highs, and yet everyone in Phoenix regards the trade and the contract as a huge and epic disaster. Scouts and media down there crapping all over him, press during the playoffs was super negative. Rather odd.

He played 53 games. Yes, he shot the ball well in those games, but he's now averaging 52 games per season over his last five. Dude was also a turnover machine in their brief postseason run. Good riddance.

Sigh....

The only problem with Brad was/is his contract. He's paid like a superstar; he isn't a superstar.