Official Trade Thread Part XLVII

[gambitx777]

I want no parts of a whinny little punk complaining cuz he has to be forced to play basketball for a couple of years in Utah for millions of dollars.

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[9 and 20]

Pass on Coulibaly for Ace. Also not going to trade Tre Johnson or Sarr. What about Bub, KG, and Phoenix pick swap rights? Supposedly they were looking at Fears so maybe they'd want a point guard. Throw in whatever other young guys they want - AJ Johnson, Vuk, and take on John Collins for cap space.

I'm sure Ace is still low-key, maybe not so low-key, trying to get out of going to Utah. I'm rooting for Ace mostly because Ainge is such a turd. Also sticks it to Silver and leaves poop on his face too if this thing comes to a head.

PG - somebody
Tre
Bilal
Ace
Sarr

That would be a fun team. Not sure how they might stay together for the long term.

[gambitx777]

No way I'm trading bub or George for ace. Those two are solid and ace is not the character of guy I want. That attitude can legitimately be the difference between an Andrew blatche or Christian wood and being Bobby portis or a Kelly O. Like I don't want that we don't have anything I'd be willing to trade out side of Corey and seconds and they won't take that cuz they would have better offers.

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

An Orlando fan proposed a Jonathan Isaac for Kispert swap.

I really like that. We are loaded with small forwards, but lack a natural power forward. Isaac could fill that role well. He'll get some boards and guard the Julius Randle type players of the league. And as an added bonus, he needs to keep his minutes down because of his injury history so he won't mind taking a backseat to develop the youngsters.

The end result is that we will have one veteran mentor at every position:

PG McCollum
SG Smart
SF Middleton
PF Isaac
C Olynyk

While the rest of the roster is full of guys 23 and under.

An Orlando fans proposed a Jonathan Isaac for Kispert swap.

I really like that. We are loaded with small forwards, but lack a natural power forward. Isaac could fill that role well. He'll get some boards and guard the Julius Randle type players of the league. And as an added bonus, he needs to keep his minutes down because of his injury history so he won't mind taking a backseat to develop the youngsters.

The end result is that we will have one veteran mentor at every position:

PG McCollum
SG Smart
SF Middleton
PF Isaac
C Olynyk

While the rest of the roster is full of guys 23 and under.

If we add Isaac and he puts up a DRB% of 24.2 (his peak and I think he gets that on the Wizards) and if he plays 15 to 20 minutes per game we would (IMO) definitely increase the number of wins next year.

Is it a great trade? Yep. Will it have unintended consequences? Probably.

If all the vets play backup minutes like this - we would be a mid to high 20s win team. That would probably keep us in the bottom 6 but it would be nervous time

You might see it differently. I guess, Keefe could make sure he plays the vets just enough to lose...

MAKE THE TRADE.

STOP TANKING.

FORGET THIS UPCOMING DRAFT. WIN GAMES OR LOSE FAIRLY.

ISAACS FITS THE ARCHETYPE.

Teams have made the playoffs as an eighth seed and beat a one seed,

To quote Herm Edwards: "You play to win the game."

Orlando likes Moe Wagner. Washington will appreciate Jonathan Isaac.

Kispert can help Orlando take the East.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I want no parts of a whinny little punk complaining cuz he has to be forced to play basketball for a couple of years in Utah for millions of dollars.

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My son went straight from HS with no graduation, the Covid year into the Marine Corps at 18 years old. In his first assignment (like a rookie contract), he got to see * boot camp, bases in SC and Cal, he deployed to Australia, and he was sent to Djibouti.

*He had me rolling. He told me he sometimes he feels like Michael Clarke Duncan in the Green Mile. "I's tired, Boss." He really cracked me up when he said his boot camp instructor reminded him of me. I was like, "Wow, that sounds bad."

Ace Bailey needs to meet either of my young men, but probably not.

Many of our young athletes, black and white, are coddled and have a sense of entitlement.

gambitx777, Ace doesn't sound reasonable, but it could be he had ass representation.

[nate33]

Pass on Coulibaly for Ace. Also not going to trade Tre Johnson or Sarr. What about Bub, KG, and Phoenix pick swap rights? Supposedly they were looking at Fears so maybe they'd want a point guard. Throw in whatever other young guys they want - AJ Johnson, Vuk, and take on John Collins for cap space.

I'm sure Ace is still low-key, maybe not so low-key, trying to get out of going to Utah. I'm rooting for Ace mostly because Ainge is such a turd. Also sticks it to Silver and leaves poop on his face too if this thing comes to a head.

PG - somebody
Tre
Bilal
Ace
Sarr

That would be a fun team. Not sure how they might stay together for the long term.

All the "insider" guys like Shams and Windhorst are saying there is absolutely no chance that Utah capitulates here. They won't trade Ace Bailey and set a precedent that draftee's can strongarm their way out of Utah.

[nate33]

MAKE THE TRADE.

STOP TANKING.

FORGET THIS UPCOMING DRAFT. WIN GAMES OR LOSE FAIRLY.

ISAACS FITS THE ARCHETYPE.

Teams have made the playoffs as an eighth seed and beat a one seed,

To quote Herm Edwards: "You play to win the game."

Orlando likes Moe Wagner. Washington will appreciate Jonathan Isaac.

Kispert can help Orlando take the East.

I'm with you that we shouldn't focus so hard on tanking our way to the worst record in the league. With the flattened lottery odds, the benefits of tanking are overrated. However, we absolutely DO need to tank our way to a bottom 6 finish so we at least have a lottery pick in the first place (because of the top 8 protected pick owed to NY).

It's one thing for an anti-tanking mindset to result in us picking 6th instead of 3rd. I can live with that. It's another think entirely for an anti-tanking mindset to completely strip us of our lottery pick altogether. That would be a catastrophe.

[payitforward]

8th worst last season won 34 games. We won't approach that result. More to it than that i know. Still....

[Benjammin]

It's not enough to think about eighth. The Wizards must make sure that if Adam Silver (er, the lottery gods) do not swing their way they will still end up no worse than eighth.

[doclinkin]

It's not enough to think about eighth. The Wizards must make sure that if Adam Silver (er, the lottery gods) do not swing their way they will still end up no worse than eighth.

Right. Bottom 4 is what we’re hunting. Though we shipped out both of our tank commanders and replaced them with serviceable vets. Plus we can expect improvement from last years 4 rookies. And 3rd year Bilal. So there’s a risk.

[nate33]

It's not enough to think about eighth. The Wizards must make sure that if Adam Silver (er, the lottery gods) do not swing their way they will still end up no worse than eighth.

Right. Bottom 4 is what we’re hunting. Though we shipped out both of our tank commanders and replaced them with serviceable vets. Plus we can expect improvement from last years 4 rookies. And 3rd year Bilal. So there’s a risk.

Bottom 4 guarantees us a top 8 pick
Bottom 5 gives us a 99.4% chance at a top 8 pick. Basically a sure thing.
Even a bottom 6 finish gives us a 96.1% chance of a top 8 pick. I wouldn't be too worried about that.

I start having real concerns if we fall to the 7th worst record. That's only 86.8% at a top 8 pick.

[The Consiglieri]

By the way, I posted about Kispert on the realGM trade board and I got zero responses after a few hours…tepid interest to say the least…lol

He's a heavily negative asset ATM. A 3 point specialist coming off of a season where he shot the league average from 3 all while making $14M a year for the next 3 years... Bleh.

He's a lot like Kuzma last season, a guy we could have made the right decision on (Kuzma-trade him, Kispert, let him walk), and we made the wrong decision (Kuzma-not trade him, Kispert-Sign him to a reasonable deal if he performs as well or better than the past) and then said decision blew up in our face (Kuzma got fat, lazy, and ---- at basketball while retaining his unearned self-esteem as a professional, Kispert had his worst season since he was a rookie from 3, and worst season shooting overall)....

Like Kuzma, it could turn out okay anyway, in Kispert's case, he'll actually have to do something to make that happen: shoot 3's better, shoot 2's a lot better, and one would think he should since Bub, Sarr, Bilal should be a year older and better, and Tre and Riley should attract a lot more attention from defenses than Kispert would gifting him the chance to hit his shot relatively unmolested.

We'll see, but for now, either Kispert shoots from 3 like he did in '22-'23, and shoots from 2 like he did his entire career until last season, or we just have to play out that wasted contract. One would think last year was his nadir on a truly horrible team, but '23-'24 was just as bad, and he was far better then, so who knows?

If he does start hitting his shot though, we should absolutely move him immediately, and not tempt fate as they stupidly did with Kuzma in '24 (we got away with it with Kuzma not because that decision was good, but because Milwaukee were desperate and stupid, you cannot depend on other teams to solve your roster problems by stepping on landmines and reaching out to you as a result as Milwaukee, and Phoenix did, its great when it happens, but depending on the stupidity of others to save you is not a smart life strategy, eventually you just end up being the idiot without any exits to save you from your own poor decision making).

[The Consiglieri]

What about coulibaly for Ace? Who adds what else?

No thank you.

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Yeah, I wouldn't do it either. I still prefer Ace, but I know I'd be significantly more in squeaky bum mode if we'd gotten Ace and he was acting like this. Even though I definitely prefer Ace, there is something very nice in knowing that Tre has followed the "you've got two ears and one mouth" for a reason ethos, and let his work and his game do the talking, and avoid making, or having others make for him, absolutely monstrously idiotic statements. No chance I would give them Sarr, Bilal, or Tre at this point, and trading Bilal, Sarr, or Bub+ one of those was always, for me anyway, about moving to 3 and getting Edgecombe, or moving to 2 and getting Harper, Bailey, while having a higher ceiling than both of those guys, also has a much, much, much lower floor.

Nope, I'm keeping Tre and my roster, unless Utah gifts us goodies in addition to Ace in the trade, not the opposite. He's now their problem (and probably eventually, becomes a stud for them, and this is all largely forgotten, but still, I'm not saving them from their current problem without a great 80 cents paid for Ace type deal).

[The Consiglieri]

MAKE THE TRADE.

STOP TANKING.

FORGET THIS UPCOMING DRAFT. WIN GAMES OR LOSE FAIRLY.

ISAACS FITS THE ARCHETYPE.

Teams have made the playoffs as an eighth seed and beat a one seed,

To quote Herm Edwards: "You play to win the game."

Orlando likes Moe Wagner. Washington will appreciate Jonathan Isaac.

Kispert can help Orlando take the East.

I'm with you that we shouldn't focus so hard on tanking our way to the worst record in the league. With the flattened lottery odds, the benefits of tanking are overrated. However, we absolutely DO need to tank our way to a bottom 6 finish so we at least have a lottery pick in the first place (because of the top 8 protected pick owed to NY).

It's one thing for an anti-tanking mindset to result in us picking 6th instead of 3rd. I can live with that. It's another think entirely for an anti-tanking mindset to completely strip us of our lottery pick altogether. That would be a catastrophe.

Until this draft, where if we'd tanked as I'd suggested, a falling Ace would have fallen in our laps at 5, w/zero trade cost to acquire, and your strategy was fine at 6. Tre may end up being better, but the way this lottery process played out proved us both right: #1 that the flattened odds make it so much harder to land a top pick, but #2 that avoiding falling an extra slot can and often will be a huge deal when that slot moves you 2 down from the consensus big 4, instead of 1.

I would also argue that this coming season, with swap rights with Phoenix, Phoenix sucking is more valuable to us than just about anything, as long as we are bottom 3, that Phoenix sucks, and in particular, that Phoenix sucks badly, would dramatically increase our odds of landing a top pick in '26.

Will be super interesting, I found myself monstrously frustrated with the quality of Phoenix's draft, compared to fellow inept squad New Orleans, who did make a total meal of this draft. Only saving grace there is that Maluach is very much a project and may not help them a ton this season, but man, if Phoenix is as bad as it could be, we could improve our odds of a top 4 pick into the 80's in terms of percent chance. That would be fantastic. Is there any conditions on our swap rights with Phoenix is all that stuff exclusively tied to '28?

[The Consiglieri]

It's not enough to think about eighth. The Wizards must make sure that if Adam Silver (er, the lottery gods) do not swing their way they will still end up no worse than eighth.

Right. Bottom 4 is what we’re hunting. Though we shipped out both of our tank commanders and replaced them with serviceable vets. Plus we can expect improvement from last years 4 rookies. And 3rd year Bilal. So there’s a risk.

We want bottom 3, bottom 4 still protects the pick, but bottom 3 combined with the Suns swap possibilities could put us into the 80's 70s at worst in terms of percent chance of landing a top 4 guy so long as the Suns sit somewhere between 5th and 9th worst going into the lottery which I definitely think is possible. The West just got Harper, Flagg and Bailey, as well as lesser but still impressive guys like Coward, Carter Bryant, Sorber, Beringer, Clayton Jr, Nique Clifford, a lot of guys this board loves, as well as 3 of the top 4 rated prospects from the class, and as we already knew, they hauled in most of the superstar prospects the past half decade plus too....so for the Suns to compete in a conference like this with a wrecked roster? I just don't see it. I love them getting Maluach and Fleming (in terms of respect for the haul), but Maluach is still a project, so man, I'm trying to remember the weird angles on our swaps with them, but it's hard not to imagine that they will give us lottery balls in '26, and '30 for sure.

[DCZards]

No way I'm trading bub or George for ace. Those two are solid and ace is not the character of guy I want. That attitude can legitimately be the difference between an Andrew blatche or Christian wood and being Bobby portis or a Kelly O. Like I don't want that we don't have anything I'd be willing to trade out side of Corey and seconds and they won't take that cuz they would have better offers.

I’m not seeing this bad character or attitude from Ace that you’re seeing.

What I’m seeing are stupid decisions being made on behalf of a 19 yr old by one or more adults in his life.

[The Consiglieri]

There is some evidence the guy, despite the 3.0 GPA, has at bare minimum, horrible judgment, and possibly is just not very sharp in general. A lot of silly statements, and the team put together for/or by him is dog ----.

[doclinkin]

No way I'm trading bub or George for ace. Those two are solid and ace is not the character of guy I want. That attitude can legitimately be the difference between an Andrew blatche or Christian wood and being Bobby portis or a Kelly O. Like I don't want that we don't have anything I'd be willing to trade out side of Corey and seconds and they won't take that cuz they would have better offers.

I’m not seeing this bad character or attitude from Ace that you’re seeing.

What I’m seeing are stupid decisions being made on behalf of a 19 yr old by one or more adults in his life.

I agree. I also think it just made the start of his career significantly tougher, for a kid who already had high bust potential.

Even if the coaching staff is protective of him, the fanbase probably won’t be. Not forgiving of miscues or mistakes.

Stupid move by baby Ainge starting his career with a power struggle vs the talent. Even if he holds all the cards. There’s no one on that roster who can reach out and bring the kid over to your side.

Anyway if we want him I say we just wait. From a pure asset acquisition aspect I’d guess his value might be lower if we trade for him later as a reclamation project. Utahs mgmt is dug in right now but later on they may be willing to cut losses and move on.

Shame and I feel bad for the kid. Our mgmt and his agent gambled he’d be there at 6, but nobody counted on baby Ainge being exactly the sort of stubborn bastard his dad is. Plus I wonder how much the selection of Kon had an effect on the decision. Because you know, Utah.

[The Consiglieri]

Agree w/everything, for him, the answer is just take to coaching and play basketball, a game he's loved since the first day he dribbled a ball, keep it simple, don't read twitter, don't look at social media, just focus on basketball, period, and it should go reasonably well or great.

[nate33]

Until this draft, where if we'd tanked as I'd suggested, a falling Ace would have fallen in our laps at 5, w/zero trade cost to acquire, and your strategy was fine at 6. Tre may end up being better, but the way this lottery process played out proved us both right: #1 that the flattened odds make it so much harder to land a top pick, but #2 that avoiding falling an extra slot can and often will be a huge deal when that slot moves you 2 down from the consensus big 4, instead of 1.

It's not a huge deal because we don't know who is better between the #5 pick and the #6 pick. You speak as if it is a certainty that there was a well defined tier where Ace Bailey was above it and Tre Johnson was below it. That's simply not the case. We have NO IDEA which player will be better.

My argument about tanking isn't merely that the flat odds mean that a few spots higher in the seedings doesn't make all that much difference in the lottery odds. The other half of the argument is that one's position in the lottery doesn't really matter all that much, outside of the top 3 anyway. Historically, the difference between pick 4 and pick 13 is negligible, so it's not really worth all the belly-aching if you land 6th instead of 5th or 4th. For example, picks 8, 9, and 10 have historically resulted in All-NBA talent about twice as often as pick #6 has. And pick #5 has been quite a bit better than pick #4.