2012 Draft, Part VI (Draft Week is Here!)

[REDardWIZskin]

YOLO > YODA

That being said, EG better do what it takes to bring Harden to DC. #3 + (2/5) Seraphin/Singleton/Crawford/Booker/Seraphin for #28 + Harden, would be INCREDIBLE.

Would almost restore my faith in Grunfeld.

Wall
Harden
Ariza
Nene
Okafor

LMAO i suppose that is Ernies strategy at times lol... for those who are not familiar "YOLO" is a urban acronym for "You Only Live Once" Has ernie written all over it lol

[Knighthonor]

YOLO > YODA

That being said, EG better do what it takes to bring Harden to DC. #3 + (2/5) Seraphin/Singleton/Crawford/Booker/Seraphin for #28 + Harden, would be INCREDIBLE.

Would almost restore my faith in Grunfeld.

Wall
Harden
Ariza
Nene
Okafor

LMAO i suppose that is Ernies strategy at times lol... for those who are not familiar "YOLO" is a urban acronym for "You Only Live Once" Has ernie written all over it lol

whats YODA than?

[tontoz]

Sully, Jones and to a lesser extent Barnes cost themselves a lot of money by staying in school.

[REDardWIZskin]

Machado at 32... hmmm 9.9 assists is REALLY high for college. Isn't it? He could be our change of pace compliment to Wall... shot over 40% from 3 as well

[Nivek]

Or whats his face as #2. There are serious flaws in it, I bet it does a great job of smoking out dramatically overrated types and future busts, and identifying dramatically underrated guys but i think it skews things crazily, some of the rankings appear utterly idiotic to be honest, and I know the #'s are saying its so, and just an overreliance on group think, and vague, unmathetmatic principles are saying its not so, but it doesnt change the fact that I just its crazy flawed for the reasons DC suggests, and for others.

You might be right. Then again, maybe I should make a list of idiotic draft decisions made by actual NBA GMs. Or idiotic predictions made by the "experts" at ESPN and various other outlets. The system I've put together might not seem so idiotic.

And, just a reminder, I wouldn't pick guys like Crowder, Denmon, Barton or Zeller as high as they're ranked in YODA. I would take advantage of the fact that others have them dramatically underrated and try to pick them up later in the draft.

[REDardWIZskin]

A guy tht might be hard to turn down at 32 even though he can't shoot is Tyreke evans... But he could be this yrs Josh Selby/Lance Stephenson though... ya know, the guy that looks great on Youtube playing in pick up games but not so much on the NBA court.

[Nivek]

YOLO > YODA

That being said, EG better do what it takes to bring Harden to DC. #3 + (2/5) Seraphin/Singleton/Crawford/Booker/Seraphin for #28 + Harden, would be INCREDIBLE.

Would almost restore my faith in Grunfeld.

Wall
Harden
Ariza
Nene
Okafor

LMAO i suppose that is Ernies strategy at times lol... for those who are not familiar "YOLO" is a urban acronym for "You Only Live Once" Has ernie written all over it lol

whats YODA than?

Little green guy who talks backwards. Was in the Star Wars movies.

j/k

It actually stands for Ye Olde Draft Analyzer. Kinda stupid (idiotic? ), but it needed a name, someone suggested it, and it stuck. If you have a better idea for a name, I'm open to suggestions.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Or whats his face as #2. There are serious flaws in it, I bet it does a great job of smoking out dramatically overrated types and future busts, and identifying dramatically underrated guys but i think it skews things crazily, some of the rankings appear utterly idiotic to be honest, and I know the #'s are saying its so, and just an overreliance on group think, and vague, unmathetmatic principles are saying its not so, but it doesnt change the fact that I just its crazy flawed for the reasons DC suggests, and for others.

You might be right. Then again, maybe I should make a list of idiotic draft decisions made by actual NBA GMs. Or idiotic predictions made by the "experts" at ESPN and various other outlets. The system I've put together might not seem so idiotic.

And, just a reminder, I wouldn't pick guys like Crowder, Denmon, Barton or Zeller as high as they're ranked in YODA. I would take advantage of the fact that others have them dramatically underrated and try to pick them up later in the draft.

I expect the Wizards will sell the #32. So, I'm not getting my hopes up.

What I would like to see is the Wizards actually add a pick, like #40 or #41 from Portland, to pick one of those three underrated guys.

I see no way to add them but today I feel like Harkless and Nicholson will be the steals of the draft, along with Machado. If some sort of last minute Blatche deal goes down, if the Wizards moved a young player like Crawford or Singleton (not happening) I would love to see them add Nicholson or Harkless.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm strangely calm. Maybe something good will happen.

[tontoz]

I expect the Wizards will sell the #32. So, I'm not getting my hopes up.

[kirubel94]

My Ideal draft,
Beal/Q.Miller
If beal is gone at two then

Barnes/John Jenkins

[Nivek]

CCJ: I have Harkless with a 2nd round grade. Nicholson is in the borderline draftable category. His stats were pretty good, but posted against weaker competition -- and he hurt himself with a poor showing at the combine. He's a guy I'd love to bring as an undrafted free agent, if he makes it through the draft.

[fishercob]

I'm juuuuuuuuuuuust a little nauseous.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I'm strangely calm. Maybe something good will happen.

Ha, I feel the same way. Thinking it's just I've been in such high anticipation for it for so long, now that's it upon us it's sort of a relief. At this point I just want to get it over with.

[The Consiglieri]

Or whats his face as #2. There are serious flaws in it, I bet it does a great job of smoking out dramatically overrated types and future busts, and identifying dramatically underrated guys but i think it skews things crazily, some of the rankings appear utterly idiotic to be honest, and I know the #'s are saying its so, and just an overreliance on group think, and vague, unmathetmatic principles are saying its not so, but it doesnt change the fact that I just its crazy flawed for the reasons DC suggests, and for others.

You might be right. Then again, maybe I should make a list of idiotic draft decisions made by actual NBA GMs. Or idiotic predictions made by the "experts" at ESPN and various other outlets. The system I've put together might not seem so idiotic.

And, just a reminder, I wouldn't pick guys like Crowder, Denmon, Barton or Zeller as high as they're ranked in YODA. I would take advantage of the fact that others have them dramatically underrated and try to pick them up later in the draft.

Absolutely fair, and absolutely reasonable, I just tend to view Crowder as #2 in tier 2 to be a flaw, and something well and truly bizarre. I can't remember pretty much anytime ever (maybe that all world awful '00 draft?) where a guy that was rated 30something by the scouts was actually the 2nd best player in the draft. Never heard of anything like that. For sure have seen guys selected in the 20's, and sometimes in round 2 that ended up being a top 5-10 guy in there draft, it happens every once in a while, but never seen something that crazy, and usually its for an odd reason, like Ginobli and Parker being such huge values because foregin scouting was in its infancy and incredibly flawed back then compared to now (as detailed in a grantland article yesterday).

Hope it doesnt come across as insulting, I just think there's something screwy in it, but i understand because sometimes it just happens when you crunch numbers. I remember last year when I was setting up my draft board for fantasy football every single time I crunched the numbers Shady McCoy came up #2 on my board, and I found myself doing a short bus version of Einstein's tweaking of gravity (or whatever it was) to tweak the #'s to get my eval of McCoy in line w/the consensus, but nothing freaking worked. In flex PPR leagues my #'s said he was the #2 RB, even though every seeming expert out there had him in a separate tier entirely, or two tiers back, and rated somewhere between 6th-early 2nd round (a huge deal in fantasy football, where sorting out the first round can be key to you avoiding a disastrous season with a blown choice). As it turned out, McCoy ended up finishing 2nd just as I predicted, and the #'s I'd put together were right. There was speculation involved, looking at McCoy's previous #'s, Westbrook's #'s early in his prime, and projecting how much utility Philly would get out of McCoy's very westbrook like skill set. Now of course I blew other calls and wasn't even able to utilize that knowledge because McCoy was kept in the keeper leagues I was playing in, and unavailable at the non-keeper league slots I landed (#2 in one league, where I took Ray Rice who I had rated #1, and in the other leagues I ended up picking 9th and 10th, and he was gone at that point), but it's an important point. Sometimes the numbers are right, and we simply refuse to believe them because the white noise of consensus distracts us.

This was the case last year w/guys like Faried who CCJ, and really the whole board loved, and considered a top 10 talent, but who NBA GM's simply couldn't conceive of being that good due to perceived limits in his offensive game, and the weak quality of opposition (a huge issue that can effect Yoda, and any metrics analysis in my view, the caliber of opponents dramatically distorts a players production, and how can you account for those issues effectively when the difference between playing in the Big East or ACC is 10000 times different than playing in the WAC, Pac-10 or MAC).

[7-Day Dray]

Drummond/Barnes or Bust.

[fishercob]

Drummond/Barnes or Bust.

I'll go with bust.

[sashae]

I'm still hoping for MKG over Barnes (I'm assuming the Beal ship has sailed.)

[payitforward]

I posted my position rankings along with a standardized score on my blog -- http://wp.me/p1kGt1-5w. I'd post here too, but I'd have to reformat the whole thing and I don't have time for that at the moment. Apologies.

This entry includes all players with draftable scores in YODA.

No listing for Nicholson?

[Nivek]

Absolutely fair, and absolutely reasonable, I just tend to view Crowder as #2 in tier 2 to be a flaw, and something well and truly bizarre. I can't remember pretty much anytime ever (maybe that all world awful '00 draft?) where a guy that was rated 30something by the scouts was actually the 2nd best player in the draft.

Don't know about 2nd best player, but Arenas, Boozer, Tayshaun Prince, Josh Howard, Paul Millsap -- these are guys who went late 1st or in the 2nd round and turned out to be quality pros. That's just off the top of my head.

Never heard of anything like that. For sure have seen guys selected in the 20's, and sometimes in round 2 that ended up being a top 5-10 guy in there draft, it happens every once in a while, but never seen something that crazy, and usually its for an odd reason, like Ginobli and Parker being such huge values because foregin scouting was in its infancy and incredibly flawed back then compared to now (as detailed in a grantland article yesterday).

I'm not counting guys like that. I haven't even incorporated international players into YODA yet.

Hope it doesnt come across as insulting, I just think there's something screwy in it, but i understand because sometimes it just happens when you crunch numbers. I remember last year when I was setting up my draft board for fantasy football every single time I crunched the numbers Shady McCoy came up #2 on my board, and I found myself doing a short bus version of Einstein's tweaking of gravity (or whatever it was) to tweak the #'s to get my eval of McCoy in line w/the consensus, but nothing freaking worked. In flex PPR leagues my #'s said he was the #2 RB, even though every seeming expert out there had him in a separate tier entirely, or two tiers back, and rated somewhere between 6th-early 2nd round (a huge deal in fantasy football, where sorting out the first round can be key to you avoiding a disastrous season with a blown choice). As it turned out, McCoy ended up finishing 2nd just as I predicted, and the #'s I'd put together were right. There was speculation involved, looking at McCoy's previous #'s, Westbrook's #'s early in his prime, and projecting how much utility Philly would get out of McCoy's very westbrook like skill set. Now of course I blew other calls and wasn't even able to utilize that knowledge because McCoy was kept in the keeper leagues I was playing in, and unavailable at the non-keeper league slots I landed (#2 in one league, where I took Ray Rice who I had rated #1, and in the other leagues I ended up picking 9th and 10th, and he was gone at that point), but it's an important point. Sometimes the numbers are right, and we simply refuse to believe them because the white noise of consensus distracts us.

What could possibly be insulting about calling my project "screwy"? No offense taken. This is an interesting project for me. I think I'm onto something with it. The process seems to get a lot right. It's still a work in progress.

This was the case last year w/guys like Faried who CCJ, and really the whole board loved, and considered a top 10 talent, but who NBA GM's simply couldn't conceive of being that good due to perceived limits in his offensive game, and the weak quality of opposition (a huge issue that can effect Yoda, and any metrics analysis in my view, the caliber of opponents dramatically distorts a players production, and how can you account for those issues effectively when the difference between playing in the Big East or ACC is 10000 times different than playing in the WAC, Pac-10 or MAC).

I agree that quality of opposition is important, which is why it's a significant part of YODA. The difference between the Big East isn't 10,000 times different than playing in the MAC, but it's significant.

And, by the way, Crowder played in the Big East. Marquette played one of the toughest schedules in college basketball this season.