Jan Vesely Part II: He a Bust

[verbal8]

Also... I've been thinking the Vesely pick was out of left field, but looking back at the posts there was alot of Vesely talk surprisingly.

IIRC it was mainly fear that EG would draft him.

I would have likely wiffed on the Singleton pick, but I think a decent scouting process would have revealed his flaws.

[payitforward]

... Imagine where this team would be now had EG taken Leonard, Faried and Parsons (those were my calls when the spots came up on draft night).

I pimped Vucevic a good bit. Really liked the young man. ...

...Should be a good year to evaluate that class as they are coming into their 3rd year.

And you were right to like him. I did too. But not over Faried by any means. And in any case he was gone at our #18. My calls at the relevant spots are listed above.

As to evaluating the 2011 draft, yes, this is the year -- have to say, however that in the face of everyone saying it was a terrible and weak draft 2011 looks to have been an outstanding draft. I'd be willing to bet that last year more minutes were played by 2011 picks than by 2010 picks -- and more effective minutes too.

(It'd be interesting to know whether that were true -- Nivek, is this something you can pull out of your data with relative ease?)

[tontoz]

Also... I've been thinking the Vesely pick was out of left field, but looking back at the posts there was alot of Vesely talk surprisingly.

IIRC it was mainly fear that EG would draft him.

I would have likely wiffed on the Singleton pick, but I think a decent scouting process would have revealed his flaws.

His weaknesses were listed clearly on his DX profile. I definitely didn't want him after reading that.

[nate33]

... Imagine where this team would be now had EG taken Leonard, Faried and Parsons (those were my calls when the spots came up on draft night).

I pimped Vucevic a good bit. Really liked the young man. ...

...Should be a good year to evaluate that class as they are coming into their 3rd year.

And you were right to like him. I did too. But not over Faried by any means. And in any case he was gone at our #18. My calls at the relevant spots are listed above.

As to evaluating the 2011 draft, yes, this is the year -- have to say, however that in the face of everyone saying it was a terrible and weak draft 2011 looks to have been an outstanding draft. I'd be willing to bet that last year more minutes were played by 2011 picks than by 2010 picks -- and more effective minutes too.

(It'd be interesting to know whether that were true -- Nivek, is this something you can pull out of your data with relative ease?)

Not too hard to figure that out with basketballreference.com

Here is the 2010 draft class, ranked by minutes played.
Hereis the 2011 draft class, ranked by minutes played.

Just glancing at the numbers, the 2010 draft has played a bit more minutes, but not dramatically so. However, the 2010 draft class produced some first rate stars like George, Wall and Monroe, plus guys that may pan out a bit later like Cousins and Favors. The 2011 draft class is full of mostly role players like Klay Thompson, Faried, Leonard and Butler. The only real first rate star is Irving.

[hands11]

... Imagine where this team would be now had EG taken Leonard, Faried and Parsons (those were my calls when the spots came up on draft night).

I pimped Vucevic a good bit. Really liked the young man. ...

...Should be a good year to evaluate that class as they are coming into their 3rd year.

And you were right to like him. I did too. But not over Faried by any means. And in any case he was gone at our #18. My calls at the relevant spots are listed above.

As to evaluating the 2011 draft, yes, this is the year -- have to say, however that in the face of everyone saying it was a terrible and weak draft 2011 looks to have been an outstanding draft. I'd be willing to bet that last year more minutes were played by 2011 picks than by 2010 picks -- and more effective minutes too.

(It'd be interesting to know whether that were true -- Nivek, is this something you can pull out of your data with relative ease?)

Yeah, kind of like this last class. I think it was deep just not great at the top though I like VO.

Would be interesting to find my final views on how to get NV. I know I spoke of trade downs. Remember posting his video a few times. I wonder how much I spoke of trade ups from 18th. But all those moves are such ? Never really know what you can actually do with other GMs. Moves seem possible. But what is able to really get done.

[Ruzious]

I pimped Vucevic a good bit. Really liked the young man. ...

...Should be a good year to evaluate that class as they are coming into their 3rd year.

And you were right to like him. I did too. But not over Faried by any means. And in any case he was gone at our #18. My calls at the relevant spots are listed above.

As to evaluating the 2011 draft, yes, this is the year -- have to say, however that in the face of everyone saying it was a terrible and weak draft 2011 looks to have been an outstanding draft. I'd be willing to bet that last year more minutes were played by 2011 picks than by 2010 picks -- and more effective minutes too.

(It'd be interesting to know whether that were true -- Nivek, is this something you can pull out of your data with relative ease?)

Not too hard to figure that out with basketballreference.com

Here is the 2010 draft class, ranked by minutes played.
Hereis the 2011 draft class, ranked by minutes played.

Just glancing at the numbers, the 2010 draft has played a bit more minutes, but not dramatically so. However, the 2010 draft class produced some first rate stars like George, Wall and Monroe, plus guys that may pan out a bit later like Cousins and Favors. The 2011 draft class is full of mostly role players like Klay Thompson, Faried, Leonard and Butler. The only real first rate star is Irving.

Yeah, I think 2010 was a bit better. It also included 2 of the outstanding defensive centers - Asik and Sanders - though I am a fan of Jonas V and Kanter from 2011. Leonard and Faried surprised people, and they're outstanding, but they're not enough.

[payitforward]

I pimped Vucevic a good bit. Really liked the young man. ...

...Should be a good year to evaluate that class as they are coming into their 3rd year.

And you were right to like him. I did too. But not over Faried by any means. And in any case he was gone at our #18. My calls at the relevant spots are listed above.

As to evaluating the 2011 draft, yes, this is the year -- have to say, however that in the face of everyone saying it was a terrible and weak draft 2011 looks to have been an outstanding draft. I'd be willing to bet that last year more minutes were played by 2011 picks than by 2010 picks -- and more effective minutes too.

(It'd be interesting to know whether that were true -- Nivek, is this something you can pull out of your data with relative ease?)

Not too hard to figure that out with basketballreference.com

Here is the 2010 draft class, ranked by minutes played.
Hereis the 2011 draft class, ranked by minutes played.

Just glancing at the numbers, the 2010 draft has played a bit more minutes, but not dramatically so. However, the 2010 draft class produced some first rate stars like George, Wall and Monroe, plus guys that may pan out a bit later like Cousins and Favors. The 2011 draft class is full of mostly role players like Klay Thompson, Faried, Leonard and Butler. The only real first rate star is Irving.

We may have to agree to disagree here. For one thing, I'm not sure how John Wall became a "first rate star" all of a sudden off of @ 6-7 weeks of outstanding play. Then again, I'm not sure Irving deserves that designation either! So that evens out the point.

I don't think Monroe is a star one bit. Vucevic puts up much better numbers -- compare for yourself: http://www.draftexpress.com/stats.php?y ... 28%5D=5828

I rate Kawhi Leonard above Paul George. George shoots a fair amount more and scores a little bit more, but Leonard is much more efficient. Pop is calling Leonard a star; he's no role player. Compare their numbers: http://www.draftexpress.com/stats.php?y ... 21%5D=5821

Still, I do think the top of the '10 draft was a little better. The rest not even close, 2011 is so much better. Compare 16-30. 2010 the best have been Bledsoe, Bradley, Booker, Pondexter and Vasquez. 2011 gave us Vucevic, Shumpert, Tobias Harris, Motejiunas, Faried, Reggie Jackson, Marshon Brooks and Jimmy Butler. And, keep in mind that the latter group have only had 2 years to show.

Round 2 I can't see how there's any comparison: 10 guys out of the 2011 round 2 played significant minutes last year. Chandler Parsons is a starter and one of the better young players in the league.

It'll be fun to watch things unfold and find out whether I'm right or over-rating 2011. After all, not all that much data in yet.

[hands11]

So we have 10 more days to extend contracts.

Beal clearly gets extended if they haven't already done it. He is 4.5M next year. Check.

Ves would be 4.4M next year. I think he has done enough that they extend him. He had a decent summer programs. He rebounded well in Euro and he brought that to summer league. Per 36 12.38 though 5 games.

Cousins is at 12.48
Drummonds 12.70
DeAndre Jordan 11.93

7 ft or 7-1 23 years old and a #6 pick they don't want to get nothing for, I think they will extend him and see if he continues to develop. I would rather he be only about 3M next year but that's the way it goes in this league. You rarely have matching product on contracts. You are almost always underpaying ( Beal ) or overpaying. The goal is to stay away from the way over paying contracts or stuck in contracts for players that can't even crack the line up ( Singleton ) this year.

Singleton - MEH.. He is 2.6M next year. If he is a bust, let him go. Hard to see where he fits on this roster both now or moving forward. And to think he could have been T Harris or Faried. What a bust of a pick. Biggest brain fart pick of EGs tenure. People think it was Ves, but it wasn't. It was Singleton.

So get ready for a board melt down as they extend Ves. But I can see why they would.


http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/stats/ ... /Preseason

[TGW]

They should not extend Ves, and just put him out of misery and cut him. Let him go back to the Ukraine.

[mhd]

Who the heck would pay Ves 4.5 million next year? I'd be shocked if he got extended.

[hands11]

Who the heck would pay Ves 4.5 million next year? I'd be shocked if he got extended.

Well get prepared to get shocked then.

[FAH1223]

Is it too soon for the Wizards to start talking max extension with Vesely?

So the countdown begins on the Vesely extension watch.

I fully expect this board to erupt if Vesely's option gets picked up for the '14-'15 season.

11 days...

[FAH1223]

His option SHOULD NOT be picked up. He hasn't shown SHID to warrant it.

$4.5 million is a waste on him, you can get two players worth more than Vesley off the waiver wire for that price, maybe even 4.

[TGW]

Who the heck would pay Ves 4.5 million next year? I'd be shocked if he got extended.

Only the Wizards, for the mere fact that Ted and Ernie have so much wasted intellectual and financial capital on that kid. They've been going on a PR blitz in order to change people's mind on Vesely, with stupid blog articles, public statements, and summer workout videos.

It's sad that we have a FO that would rather try and prove people wrong than do the right thing. Ted did with the capitals, and now he's doing the same with the Wizards. He's pretty much as bad as Abe.

[hands11]

Also... I've been thinking the Vesely pick was out of left field, but looking back at the posts there was alot of Vesely talk surprisingly.

I didn't want him, but I actually found this gem of a prediction, I believe this was even pre-lottery...

Re: 2011 DRAFT blather goes here. Part 3...

Postby SUPERBALLMAN on Sun May 15, 2011 1:33 am

This may of been posted before... but this is from nbadraft.net

Jan Vesely 6-11 230 SF/PF Czech Republic 1990 The Wizards are extremely high on Vesely and it's unlikely they would allow him to slip by them at 4. He's is ultra long and athletic and has the ability to play either forward position. He's a tweener but a good tweener in the sense that he can create mismatches due to his size. He will need to add strength and could struggle some guarding on the perimeter due to lack of foot speed, but his incredible length and improving skill set make him a projected high lottery pick. He's been compared to both Dunleavy's (Mike senior and junior) due to his shooting ability and adroit ball handling skills. He has had a strong end to the season for Partizan Belgrade after starting off slowly.

I can see this being Ernie's guy considering his past picks of Nowitzki and Pecherov.

"You might be able to save your powder for the following summer, but a plan will be in place. But it's not something that happens overnight. It's going to be a process" - Ernie Grunfeld

- See more at: viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1112363&start=30#sthash.cnRflNeT.dpuf


And here's WizarDynasty!!

Re: 2011 DRAFT blather goes here. Part 3...

Postby WizarDynasty on Wed May 18, 2011 5:04 pm

i think i might go vesely too. i see 3 and d for sure with him. 6'11 quickness is a nightmare for perimeter oriented teams which is the majority of nba now. jeffries with a three point shot.

- See more at: viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1112363&start=270#sthash.Kn0jr4gc.dpuf

Yeah, here was my post draft wrap up.

Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:33 pm
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1121354&start=915

My approach was different entirely but I do understand the approach they took.

My idea was trade down and upgrade the shooting ( harper ), get an all around SF ( Morris/Tobias ) and get center help Nikola Vucevic. Do this by trade and and/or buy a pick. I would have also liked to see someone like Brooks here or even a project PF like Jeremy Tyler. That is what I wanted this year.

They went a different direction. They went for pure D, a swing for the fences with Jan and PG/SG help with Shelvin Mack

I think my approach would have made us better next year and hopefully moving forward as we packaged players if we needed to, while theirs provides players with less upside and will likely yield us a better draft position for the following year. But you upgraded your D with Singleton and hopefully Ves.

It is a difference in strategy and because of that, I am not surprised we added none of the players I wanted to see added. I think it was a missed opportunity but I will role with it because it is what we have.

( 2nd post that page about how I didn't like what they did and why )

I would have much rather seen.

C: McGee/Seraphin/Nikola Vucevic (wrote Mirotic in my 2nd post. Got my Nikola mixed up )
PF: Blatche/Lewis
SF: Booker/Tabias or Morris/Harper
SG: Young/Crawford/Brooks
PG: Wall/Crawford

But this was based on a trade down and pick up more picks plan. Nikola with the top trade down first and Brooks with the added pick later first. Harper was the 2nd round pick but he was gone 2 picks before Mack so he wasn't there.

[montestewart]

Thanks for linking back to that discussion Hands. Somehow II'd forgotten this post:

how the hell did we go through ~450 pages of draft talk and nobody bring up the fact that vesely lost 2 teeth trying to bite someone's ear off!!?!

Any more info on how Jan got the nickname Fangs?

[payitforward]

... I didn't like what they did... I would have much rather seen.

C: McGee/Seraphin/Nikola Vucevic (wrote Mirotic in my 2nd post. Got my Nikola mixed up )
PF: Blatche/Lewis
SF: Booker/Tabias or Morris/Harper
SG: Young/Crawford/Brooks
PG: Wall/Crawford

But this was based on a trade down and pick up more picks plan. Nikola with the top trade down first and Brooks with the added pick later first. Harper was the 2nd round pick but he was gone 2 picks before Mack so he wasn't there.

So you missed the two best players available to us by far: Leonard and Faried (why yes, yes, they certainly were my picks as those spots came up). And you also missed the biggest round 2 bargain, also available to us, Chandler Parsons (I thought he'd go late in Rd 1; couldn't understand why we didn't pick him when we reached for Mack).

But you were right that Vucevic looked to be a very good player, and you do mention "Tabias" (Tobias Harris I assume), who looked like a bargain to me for sure. I would have taken him had Faried been off the table. He put up terrific freshman numbers, and he hadn't even turned 19 yet on draft night!

I wasn't convinced about Harper at all, though I would have taken him over Mack had he been there. But the guy I was hoping hoping hoping would drop to us was Jimmy Butler. Everything about him screamed success, and so it has turned out. Alas he went four picks before we took Mack.

If you look at that 2d round 2011, it's kind of impressive how many guys are turning into good pros.

[hands11]

... I didn't like what they did... I would have much rather seen.

C: McGee/Seraphin/Nikola Vucevic (wrote Mirotic in my 2nd post. Got my Nikola mixed up )
PF: Blatche/Lewis
SF: Booker/Tabias or Morris/Harper
SG: Young/Crawford/Brooks
PG: Wall/Crawford

But this was based on a trade down and pick up more picks plan. Nikola with the top trade down first and Brooks with the added pick later first. Harper was the 2nd round pick but he was gone 2 picks before Mack so he wasn't there.

So you missed the two best players available to us by far: Leonard and Faried (why yes, yes, they certainly were my picks as those spots came up). And you also missed the biggest round 2 bargain, also available to us, Chandler Parsons (I thought he'd go late in Rd 1; couldn't understand why we didn't pick him when we reached for Mack).

But you were right that Vucevic looked to be a very good player, and you do mention "Tabias" (Tobias Harris I assume), who looked like a bargain to me for sure. I would have taken him had Faried been off the table. He put up terrific freshman numbers, and he hadn't even turned 19 yet on draft night!

I wasn't convinced about Harper at all, though I would have taken him over Mack had he been there. But the guy I was hoping hoping hoping would drop to us was Jimmy Butler. Everything about him screamed success, and so it has turned out. Alas he went four picks before we took Mack.

If you look at that 2d round 2011, it's kind of impressive how many guys are turning into good pros.

LOL

That my be true PIF. Time will tell. A Leonard, Faried, Chandler draft was doable and it would have been a really nice grab so it looks like you nailed that year.

In fairness though, Leonard and Faried went to better teams then Nikola and T Harris. Should be interesting to compare those players after another year or so. Leonard was really lucky to land in SA. That was perfect for him to get groomed. I'm happy for him that he landed there.

I was just reading over some of my old posts and it looks like I shied away from Leonard over other players in part because he was raw and he was quiet ( not that I didn't like him). I know the team needed a personality over-hale so I was taking that into consideration. TB struck me as the same kind of worker bee but I little better of a personality fit. I liked Nikola because of his post moves, height, work ethic, etc and I wanted a PF/C type in case we lost McGee, which is why I had him instead of Faried who was shorter and no much of a shooter. Harper was all about range shooting but it was a little bit of a risk. I saw him as a bench player to replace Lewis's range when they moved Lewis. Not a strong body and not as mature as I prefer for a player but he was just an extra.

Not sure I know much about Chandler. I didn't find posts where I commented on him yet.

My big wiff of that draft seems to be Brooks. I expected a more out of him. Looks like he is already 24 so if he doesn't break out this year, doesn't look like he will.

My general approach seems to have been for them to load up on picks and suck another year for another high pick ( Beal ). I was against the trade ideas to ship off McGee and picks for DWilliams which was a popular idea at the time. I was also looking for keep Dray and raise his stock before moving him ( which could have worked out seeing how he is playing now). I had Nick with one foot out the door which is why I wanted Brooks. Looks like I wiffed on Brooks.

I had an idea to start a thread where we could post funny prediction we read but do it without the posters name so as to not call anyone out. There are some funny predictions in those threads. Specially since they are over time and people change views as they get more information.

Was interesting to see some Ves and Singleton love in those threads. D Will was getting trade offers of McGee and the #6 and sometimes the #18 as well. Good stuff.

[closg00]

Who the heck would pay Ves 4.5 million next year? I'd be shocked if he got extended.

Well get prepared to get shocked then.

On what basis would Jan Vesely be worth $4 million+ Hands? I wouldn't even keep JV for the vet minimum.
Ernie Grunfeld would be the laughingstock of the league if he offered Jan Vesely a contract extension.

[TGW]

Vucevic would have been an upgrade to our bigs minus Nene, but he's terrible defensively. I think he's a backup center at best in this league.