Bradley Beal - Part III

[nate33]

I caught a recent Zach Lowe podcast with Kevin Arnovitz. Lowe currently has Beal on his list as the starting SG, but only by a hair. He says his other 4 starters are set in stone (Kyrie, Kawhi, Giannis, Embiid) but he has Beal penciled in as his 5th starter, with Kemba and Simmons also in the mix.

The reality is that Beal is way too far behind in fan voting to be the starter, but he's pretty much a lock to make the team. The 5th starter will probably be Kemba, who ranks third in guard votes behind Kyrie and Wade. (Wade presumably won't rank high in the player or media rankings, bumping him below Kemba. Fans only influence the starters; the reserves are chosen by coaches. So once Wade is eliminated from starting, he'll surely be eliminated from the ASG altogether.)

Lowe and Arnovitz agreed that 10 players from the East are pretty much locks to make it:
Backcourt: Kyrie, Kemba, Beal, Simmons, Oladipo
Frontcourt: Embiid, Giannis, Kawhi, Blake, Vucevic

The other 2 players could be any among: Butler, Middleton, Bledsoe, Lowry, Siakam, Turner or Drummond

[payitforward]

Well the mother stat of all stats, Wins Produced per 48 says no. Here's a list of guards in the East outperforming Beal right now according to WP48

Ben Simmons
Kyrie Irving
Kyle Lowry
Malcolm Brogdon
Eric Bledsoe
Darren Collison
Marcus Smart
T.J. McConnell
D.J. Augustin
TOMAS SATORANSKY
Sterling Brown
Delon Wright
Jeremy Lin
Ryan Arcidiacono
Joe Harris
Cory Joseph
Jeremy Lamb
Danny Green
Tony Snell
Victor Oladipo
Kemba Walker
Fred VanVleet

Beal is the 24th best guard in the East. A nice player. Nothing close to an all-star. Not even the best guard on the Wizards. Maybe if he rebounded better and wasted less possessions.

Aren't they silly? Why don't we prove how silly by comparing Brad to Malcolm Brogdon, ok? You decide who is having the better season.

Well, Brad is scoring 5.6 more points per 40 minutes. More points is better, right?

Then again, to score those extra points he uses 5.7 more shots & 2.1 more FTAs every 40 minutes. That's a .423 TS% on the extra offensive possessions Brad is using. That's not so good, is it?

Brad's 2pt. % this year is 53.6% -- terrific. But Brogdon's is 55.6%.
Brad's 3pt. % = 35.4%. Brogdon's is 42.7%
Brad's FT% is 78.8%. Brogdon's is 95.6% (not a typo).

Brad is posting a 56.8% TS%. Brogdon's is 62.3% (not a typo).

Not to belabor this too much, Brogdon also gets more rebounds -- defensive & offensive -- than Brad this year. On the rest of the stuff (steals, TOs, assists, blocks & fouls) they are overall about the same.

Is Malcolm Brogdon a better player than Brad Beal? Well, he's having a better season than Brad, that's for sure. In fact, he's having a better season than Brad has ever had.

But, that's not the same as "better player." Brad had a little better season than Brogdon last year. &, even though this is only Malcolm Brogdon's 3d year in the league (he went #36 in the 2016 draft), he's actually older than Brad by six + months. Moreover, although Brogdon plays a lot (30 minutes a game), he doesn't play as much as Beal (37 minutes a game).

Plus, as I'm sure I'll hear from Zards or someone, Brad gets more defensive attention. Brogdon would never... etc. etc. etc. if etc. etc. etc. Whoever makes the comment will basically never have watched Brogdon, of course. It's more like a religious remark than an empirical observation. Still...

What if Malcolm Brogdon puts up these kinds of numbers every year from here on out (not that I'm predicting it)? Would that make him a better player than Beal? I guess that depends on what Brad does from here on out, huh? But, if Brad stays as is (not that I'm predicting it), you bet it would. It would make him a much better player than Brad Beal.

But we don't know anything about that. What we do know is that Malcolm Brogdon is having a killer season -- I'm sure even Dat will agree to that, given the numbers this guy is putting up. He looks like a hell of a good NBA player, & he certainly deserves consideration for the All Star game -- why wouldn't he?

[DCZards]

Brad's 2pt. % this year is 53.6% -- terrific. But Brogdon's is 55.6%.
Brad's 3pt. % = 35.4%. Brogdon's is 42.7%
Brad's FT% is 78.8%. Brogdon's is 95.6% (not a typo).

Brad is posting a 56.8% TS%. Brogdon's is 62.3% (not a typo).

Not to belabor this too much, Brogdon also gets more rebounds -- defensive & offensive -- than Brad this year. On the rest of the stuff (steals, TOs, assists, blocks & fouls) they are overall about the same.

Cute how you make a big deal of the fact that Brogdon is a slightly better rebounder than BB but play down--actually don't even mention--the fact that Beal is better in assists, steals and blocks (per 36).

Wake me up when Brogdon is the alpha dog for his team and not his team's third or fourth option...and when he's not playing next to one of the top 5 players in the NBA. Let Brogdon face the frequent double-teaming that BB faces...and let's see how that impacts his FG%.

But, of course, that kind of context doesn't matter if all you care about is #s.

[Kanyewest]

I caught a recent Zach Lowe podcast with Kevin Arnovitz. Lowe currently has Beal on his list as the starting SG, but only by a hair. He says his other 4 starters are set in stone (Kyrie, Kawhi, Giannis, Embiid) but he has Beal penciled in as his 5th starter, with Kemba and Simmons also in the mix.

The reality is that Beal is way too far behind in fan voting to be the starter, but he's pretty much a lock to make the team. The 5th starter will probably be Kemba, who ranks third in guard votes behind Kyrie and Wade. (Wade presumably won't rank high in the player or media rankings, bumping him below Kemba. Fans only influence the starters; the reserves are chosen by coaches. So once Wade is eliminated from starting, he'll surely be eliminated from the ASG altogether.)

Lowe and Arnovitz agreed that 10 players from the East are pretty much locks to make it:
Backcourt: Kyrie, Kemba, Beal, Simmons, Oladipo
Frontcourt: Embiid, Giannis, Kawhi, Blake, Vucevic

The other 2 players could be any among: Butler, Middleton, Bledsoe, Lowry, Siakam, Turner or Drummond

Lowe just said on Twitter that DeAngelo Russell is making a late all star push. Although I don't think he will make it.

[nate33]

I caught a recent Zach Lowe podcast with Kevin Arnovitz. Lowe currently has Beal on his list as the starting SG, but only by a hair. He says his other 4 starters are set in stone (Kyrie, Kawhi, Giannis, Embiid) but he has Beal penciled in as his 5th starter, with Kemba and Simmons also in the mix.

The reality is that Beal is way too far behind in fan voting to be the starter, but he's pretty much a lock to make the team. The 5th starter will probably be Kemba, who ranks third in guard votes behind Kyrie and Wade. (Wade presumably won't rank high in the player or media rankings, bumping him below Kemba. Fans only influence the starters; the reserves are chosen by coaches. So once Wade is eliminated from starting, he'll surely be eliminated from the ASG altogether.)

Lowe and Arnovitz agreed that 10 players from the East are pretty much locks to make it:
Backcourt: Kyrie, Kemba, Beal, Simmons, Oladipo
Frontcourt: Embiid, Giannis, Kawhi, Blake, Vucevic

The other 2 players could be any among: Butler, Middleton, Bledsoe, Lowry, Siakam, Turner or Drummond

Lowe just said on Twitter that DeAngelo Russell is making a late all star push. Although I don't think he will make it.

He should be in the conversation. He has put up some impressive numbers. His efficiency is low, but it has improved quite a bit recently.

[payitforward]

Brad's 2pt. % this year is 53.6% -- terrific. But Brogdon's is 55.6%.
Brad's 3pt. % = 35.4%. Brogdon's is 42.7%
Brad's FT% is 78.8%. Brogdon's is 95.6% (not a typo).

Brad is posting a 56.8% TS%. Brogdon's is 62.3% (not a typo).

Not to belabor this too much, Brogdon also gets more rebounds -- defensive & offensive -- than Brad this year. On the rest of the stuff (steals, TOs, assists, blocks & fouls) they are overall about the same.

Cute how you make a big deal of the fact that Brogdon is a slightly better rebounder than BB but play down--actually don't even mention--the fact that Beal is better in assists, steals and blocks (per 36).

Wake me up when Brogdon is the alpha dog for his team and not his team's third or fourth option...and when he's not playing next to one of the top 5 players in the NBA. Let Brogdon face the frequent double-teaming that BB faces...and let's see how that impacts his FG%.

But, of course, that kind of context doesn't matter if all you care about is #s.

Zards! You snipped the part of my post where I said explicitly that this doesn't mean he's "a better player than Beal!"

Is Malcolm Brogdon a better player than Brad Beal? Well, he's having a better season than Brad, that's for sure. In fact, he's having a better season than Brad has ever had.

But, that's not the same as "better player." Brad had a little better season than Brogdon last year. &, even though this is only Malcolm Brogdon's 3d year in the league (he went #36 in the 2016 draft), he's actually older than Brad by six + months. Moreover, although Brogdon plays a lot (30 minutes a game), he doesn't play as much as Beal (37 minutes a game).

Plus, though it's true Brad gets more assists, steals & blocks, it's also true that he fouls more & turns it over more -- which is why I said that in "the the rest of the stuff (steals, TOs, assists, blocks & fouls) they are overall about the same."

Moreover, there are other players who play next to Antetekounmpo (or other greats) & don't excel the way Brogdon is. Jeff Green played next to LeBron last year, but he's having a much better year this year than last.

My point was not to denigrate Brad Beal -- but, it has to be ok for other players to be good, for guys to come out of R2 & turn out to be terrific, etc. & that was my only point.

[DCZards]

Beal should feel good that his peers gave him props.

Bradley Beal is third place in player vote but 10th place in the fan vote for NBA All-Star Game

On Thursday, the NBA announced the final results of fan, player, and media voting for the 2019 NBA All-Star Game. Bradley Beal was 10th among Eastern Conference backcourt players with 346,027 votes. Beal also was fifth in the media voting where he received seven votes, and was third in the player vote with 62 votes.

Beal is enjoying a career season where he’s scoring 24.6 points and dishing 5 assists a game. He’s shooting a career-high 46.5 percent from the field overall since he’s taking more shots besides just three pointers. Also, I think players see Beal as one of the upstanding players in the NBA in general. He has stayed away from drama off the court and is producing for the Wizards when they need him most.

https://www.bulletsforever.com/2019/1/25/18197140/nba-all-star-game-voting-bradley-beal-washington-wizards

[nate33]

Beal should feel good that his peers gave him props.

Bradley Beal is third place in player vote but 10th place in the fan vote for NBA All-Star Game

On Thursday, the NBA announced the final results of fan, player, and media voting for the 2019 NBA All-Star Game. Bradley Beal was 10th among Eastern Conference backcourt players with 346,027 votes. Beal also was fifth in the media voting where he received seven votes, and was third in the player vote with 62 votes.

Beal is enjoying a career season where he’s scoring 24.6 points and dishing 5 assists a game. He’s shooting a career-high 46.5 percent from the field overall since he’s taking more shots besides just three pointers. Also, I think players see Beal as one of the upstanding players in the NBA in general. He has stayed away from drama off the court and is producing for the Wizards when they need him most.

https://www.bulletsforever.com/2019/1/25/18197140/nba-all-star-game-voting-bradley-beal-washington-wizards

Interesting results.

I figure the coaches vote will be somewhat in between the media vote and the player vote, probably closer to the media vote.

With that in mind, Beal is a shoe-in to make the ASG. Kemba and Kyrie start. Oladipo was ranked 4th by players and 4th by media, but he's out for the season. The next two guys are Simmons (5th by players, 3rd by media) and Beal (3rd by players and 5th by media). They'll both make it.

The surprise is that Wade still got 6th in both media and player votes - ahead of Lowry (7th/7th), Bledsoe (8th/8th), Lavine (8th/8th) and Russell (8th/10th). I guess the media was really trying to reward Miami with at least one All Star. It'll be interesting to see if the coaches also take Wade over Lowry and Bledsoe. I think I might give it to Russell, who is leading a pretty solid Brooklyn team.

In the frontcourt, I just can't believe that the media ranked Vince Carter 7th place. C'mon now. Jayson Tatum did way better than I expected too. He actually hasn't been very good this year. Vucevic did worse than I expected.

Overall, it looks like only about 8 players are a sure thing: the starters plus Beal, Simmons and Griffin. After that, there are a lot of players who could get in but it will depend upon how the coaches value stats, reputation and winning record.

[nuposse04]

I wish Bryant was given more minutes with Beal, they have an efficient two man game that would help alleviate the constant pressure Beal has to draw (which a player like Brogdan will basically never have to worry about unless Giannis is injured).

Beal's mins concerns me. If they can't make the playoffs without running beal into the ground I'm not sure I'd want them. Play Brown Jr. some, see what happens. Hell Randle played fine yesterday.

[queridiculo]

Beal isn't getting love from the fans because the Wizards are an irrelevant franchise, bottom line.

[FAH1223]

Watch on YouTube

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

Congratulations, Bradley!

[Ruzious]

Read on Twitter

Congratulations, Bradley!

Absolutely! I haven't always been his biggest supporter, but this is a huge accomplishment and honor that he deserves. Congrats Bradley!!!

[nate33]

I was just looking at Beal's stats this morning, wondering if he could average 25, 5 and 5 on the season, and I noticed something kinda remarkable.

Beal is playing almost exactly like he did last year, only he's a little bit better in EVERYTHING. FG%, FT%, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, points. You name the category, and Beal has improved. The only exception is 3P%, but his overall TS% is still better. His advanced stats are all better too: ORtg PER, OBPM, DBPM, BPM. The only exception is WS/48, which shows how screwy of a stat it is. How can you be better at everything but get worse in WS/48?

[ClutchDJ]

I was just looking at Beal's stats this morning, wondering if he could average 25, 5 and 5 on the season, and I noticed something kinda remarkable.

Beal is playing almost exactly like he did last year, only he's a little bit better in EVERYTHING. FG%, FT%, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, points. You name the category, and Beal has improved. The only exception is 3P%, but his overall TS% is still better. His advanced stats are all better too: ORtg PER, OBPM, DBPM, BPM. The only exception is WS/48, which shows how screwy of a stat it is. How can you be better at everything but get worse in WS/48?

Probably because WS/48 is a pathetic stat.

[Jamaaliver]

An abridged version --

Aldridge: Leonsis and Beal need to work out plan for Wizards’ future



There is but one meeting that matters now, now that John Wall is out for this season and much of, if not all of, next season. And it should happen sooner rather than later.

Ted Leonsis and Bradley Beal.

No third parties. Just the Wizards’ owner and his now-best player. The meeting doesn’t have to be that long, for there is only one essential question for which Leonsis must have an answer when the meeting’s over:

Are you in or out?

Beal’s answer will send the franchise in one direction or the other, but at least there will be clarity, and Leonsis can proceed from there.

The Athletic


Aldridge states that if Beal wants out, Leonsis should convince him to play the good soldier, keep quiet and understand that a deal will be done over the summer. He mentions Minnesota for their top-2 protected lottery pick, Teague and rookie Josh Okogie.

or to the Knicks for their pick if it falls out of the top-2 plus Frank (or DSJ?) and Trier.


And if Beal states he is in this for the long term and prefers to stay with WAS...Leonsis would have to finally fire Ernie.

Here's hoping, Wiz fans...

[Shanghai Kid]

I was just looking at Beal's stats this morning, wondering if he could average 25, 5 and 5 on the season, and I noticed something kinda remarkable.

Beal is playing almost exactly like he did last year, only he's a little bit better in EVERYTHING. FG%, FT%, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, points. You name the category, and Beal has improved. The only exception is 3P%, but his overall TS% is still better. His advanced stats are all better too: ORtg PER, OBPM, DBPM, BPM. The only exception is WS/48, which shows how screwy of a stat it is. How can you be better at everything but get worse in WS/48?

Probably because WS/48 is a pathetic stat.

I always feel Beal gets slighted in advanced stats. They seem to be below what you would expect from someone who is doing on 25/5/5 on decent efficiency and even in his past seasons.

Like by advanced stats we should sell high on Beal as his impact doesnt seem to be as good as his numbers. But I wonder if his impact is lost in the translation somewhere.

[nate33]

Interesting:

Read on Twitter

WARP factors position. That is, it's harder to find SG's who accumulate monster stats than it is to find PF's who accumulate monster stats. So being worth a lot more wins than a replacement level SG isn't quite the same thing as being worth a lot more wins than a replacement level PF. When factoring position, Beal is the 12th most difficult-to-replace player in the league. Though doesn't necessarily mean he's the 12th best player in the league.

Pelton ranks Beal as the 2nd best SG in the league, behind only Harden. He has him as the 7th best guard in the league, ahead of Westbrook and Simmons, but behind Kemba and Conley.

[tontoz]

Beal has turned into the player that we all hoped he would be when we drafted him. Unfortunately we still suck because the same clown is running the show.

Prime MJ couldnt make this team a contender, and it isnt because we have lacked assets over the last few years. They have just been wasted.

[payitforward]

I was just looking at Beal's stats this morning, wondering if he could average 25, 5 and 5 on the season, and I noticed something kinda remarkable.

Beal is playing almost exactly like he did last year, only he's a little bit better in EVERYTHING. FG%, FT%, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, points. You name the category, and Beal has improved. The only exception is 3P%, but his overall TS% is still better.

Missed this. In fact, in many aspects of his game, Brad has improved over his career year (something which Zards has mentioned btw -- & which I disputed: I was wrong). Per 48 minutes, he's gone from...

3.3 to 5.1 in defensive boards (55% better)
.9 to 1.5 in offensive boards (67% better)
4.8 to 6.7 assists (40% better)
.4 to 1.0 blocks (250% better)
1.5 to 1.8 steals (20% better)

Only exceptions are

2.8 to 3.7 turnovers (32% increase)
3.0 to 3.9 fouls (33% increase)

All in all, that's terrific development. How about scoring? He's gone from

53.8% to 54.2% in 2-pt. %
40.3% to 35.2% in 3 pt. %
82.5% to 80.1% in FT %

7.42 to 8.78 made 2s -- up 2.72 points
3.99 to 3.27 made 3s -- down 2.16 points
5.03 to 5.04 made FTs -- up .01 points

He's scoring .6 more points per 48 (31.8 > 32.4). But it's on 1.8 more FGAs & .2 more FTAs, which is why his TS% is down from 60.4% in 2016-17 to 57.3% this year. If he scored 1.7 more points per 48, he'd be back to 60.3% TS% -- infinitesimally lower than 2 years ago, but on a bit higher usage.

Brad's having his 2d best year. Close to 2 years ago, meaningfully up from last year.