Political Roundtable Part XVII

[Jamaaliver]

Fair enough. I agree. The repatriation isn't that important in terms of direct taxation revenue. The jobs are huge though. It's not just 20,000 jobs. Those 20,000 jobs will require tens of thousands more support jobs. Things like local restaurants, hair salons, home builders, theaters, etc.

Asked in an interview with ABC News whether the job creation announcements were directly related to the Republican tax plan, Apple CEO Cook said, "Let me be clear: There are large parts of this that are a result of the tax reform, and there's large parts of this we would have done in any situation."

NPR


I don't identify as Republican or Democrat. I am a long time skeptic.

And the skeptic in me has to ask: at what cost is all this occurring?

What are the opportunity costs lost in terms of healthcare for all and grants to small business owners in places like Detroit, West Virginia and Indiana?

How do those folks -- the forgotten, the desolate, the deplorables -- benefit from Apple jobs in another state?

And would they have benefitted more directly had they received the larger tax benefit and small business/education grants instead the billions the corporations will inherit?

[dckingsfan]

LOL at the stock market being an economic indicator of anything other than the top 1% getting richer. It cracks me up that anyone making less than $5MM a year can brag about the stock market, like that has any reflection on how regular Americans are doing.

And this current economic climate reminds me of the movie "The Big Short." A great movie if you want to see how the mortgage industry crashed the economy, and how one smart dude made a ton of money off the morons who were bragging that the real estate market was crash-proof. Someone should show that movie to the president, but unfortunately I think even the movie's dumbed-down explanations of mortgage-backed securities and CDOs would go over his pea-brained head.

Anyway, I'm going to invest in credit default swaps much like Christian Bale's character, and bet against this boom-bust mortgage industry. It's coming...all the symptoms are there. 30% of the market still consists of upside-down loans from before 2009, sub-prime loans have made a big comeback, and the idiot in the WH is deregulating the market. And just like during Bush's second term, you have idiots bragging about the strength of the economy. It's going to be a bloodbath again...it's just a matter of what side you're on this time.

You make some good points here. The stock market really isn't an economic indicator.

The biggest beneficiaries of the stock market boom has been those with money. And they have tended to be older and have invested their money over time. Those with pensions (where the pensions are invested) have also benefitted. And yes, especially the 1%.

But your last point is the best. The real estate market is again overbought. Although, I am not sure why you are saying this is the fault of this administration? The run-up started well before (2012). This is a Fred and Fanny issue and a tax code issue as much as anything. If you want to assign blame to this period of governance it is they again slanted the tax code toward writing off interest. But, the Ds were defending the same practice, no?

[TGW]

Lol. Nothing you say in this post contradicts what I said. Yes, serious cognitive experts devised this test in the early 20th Century. They did it by choosing a group of kids they considered successful and a group they considered unsuccessful and kept questions that were good at differentiating them. Thus they embedded in the IQ test the racial biases at the time. This is a well known statistical artifact of these tests. We do not know how to measure intelligence. We don't know what intelligence is.

Ask any serious cognitive scientist and they will agree with me that IQ is a very flawed measure. I suspect the reason you like the IQ test so much is that it confirms your preconceived notion that white people have superior intelligence to certain other minorities you don't like. That very property is why serious cognitive scientists feel it is a flawed measure. It is not measuring what they want to measure.

I agree with you that all the statistical evidence seems to indicate that intelligence, however measured, is highly hereditary. I hope that's true because otherwise my argument about skimming off the cream of the crop from other countries would be moot.

But again, I'm going to keep repeating this, IQ and college graduation rates are a lousy metric to apply to newly arrived immigrants. I'll add that IQ is a lousy metric to compare hispanics to whites with, since the IQ test has built in biases favoring white people. As you point out, even though it is a lousy measure of intelligence *levels* there's nothing wrong with using it to track changes in intelligence over time for one person, or comparing parents to children.

Nevertheless, I propose (AGAIN) that the proper metric to apply to DACA beneficiaries is lifetime jobs created. Or perhaps the contribution to GDP of jobs created, to be a little more precise.

If, as you say, IQ is a poor measurement of intelligence and it was only developed as a means to measure to success in developed, western society, then isn't it still an ideal measuring tool for estimating the likely success of would-be immigrants into America, which is, in fact, a developed western society?

Gah, you ninja'd me as I was adding a few sentences to my last post.

The IQ test is primarily a predictor of *academic* success.

The basis of this debate we're having is that immigrants should be allowed in who are net contributors to the economy. Entrepreneurial success is what we're interested in. Academic success is only indirectly correlated with contribution to GDP. IQ is a good predictor of academic success, but is a less reliable predictor of entrepreneurial success.

Nate clings on to things like "IQ tests" because it's a coping mechanism for him. He doesn't want to admit that white American males like himself are valueless in today's labor pool (that's why little dude got fired from his job a few years back). No one wants to employ white males because they demand too much, are vastly unproductive, and are completely inferior to their labor counterparts in nearly every way. The simply cannot compete with hispanics, asians, and africans counterpart when it comes to labor. It's why America doesn't have a closed border policy. It's why no one asks for your IQ test scores when you apply for a job. Corporations don't give a rats a$$ what you score on tests; as a matter of fact, many employers don't want some jackass with test scores or even GPAs on their resumes...they simply don't care, and the fact that you value your test scores means that you want the moon even though more than likely you're an unproven jackass.

It's why someone like Trump couldn't succeed in today's economic environment without handouts from his dad.

[nate33]

No one wants to employ white males because they demand too much, are vastly unproductive, and are completely inferior to their labor counterparts in nearly every way. The simply cannot compete with hispanics, asians, and africans counterpart when it comes to labor.

Right. So let's end affirmative action. It clearly isn't necessary.

It's why America doesn't have a closed border policy. It's why no one asks for your IQ test scores when you apply for a job. Corporations don't give a rats a$$ what you score on tests; as a matter of fact, many employers don't want some jackass with test scores or even GPAs on their resumes...they simply don't care, and the fact that you value your test scores means that you want the moon even though more than likely you're an unproven jackass.

Corporations used to give cognitive tests but they get sued for racial discrimination when they do, because every time they do the test, blacks and mestizos perform worse.

It's why someone like Trump couldn't succeed in today's economic environment without handouts from his dad.

Yeah. You go on believing that. Trump is a bumbling stumbling fool who managed to accidentally become a billionaire in real estate, run an extremely popular and successful TV show, and then win the Presidency on his first try. The guy is a total idiot who obviously can't succeed in today's economic environment.

[gtn130]

TGW speakin some truth in that last post

[gtn130]

Right. So let's end affirmative action. It clearly isn't necessary.

You think this is a sick gotcha but it actually shows how you fundamentally misunderstand the problem and also how you're pretty racist.

[Wizardspride]

No one wants to employ white males because they demand too much, are vastly unproductive, and are completely inferior to their labor counterparts in nearly every way. The simply cannot compete with hispanics, asians, and africans counterpart when it comes to labor.

Right. So let's end affirmative action. It clearly isn't necessary.

It's why America doesn't have a closed border policy. It's why no one asks for your IQ test scores when you apply for a job. Corporations don't give a rats a$$ what you score on tests; as a matter of fact, many employers don't want some jackass with test scores or even GPAs on their resumes...they simply don't care, and the fact that you value your test scores means that you want the moon even though more than likely you're an unproven jackass.

Corporations used to give cognitive tests but they get sued for racial discrimination when they do, because every time they do the test, blacks and mestizos perform worse.

It's why someone like Trump couldn't succeed in today's economic environment without handouts from his dad.

Yeah. You go on believing that. Trump is a bumbling stumbling fool who managed to accidentally become a billionaire in real estate, run an extremely popular and successful TV show, and then win the Presidency on his first try. The guy is a total idiot who obviously can't succeed in today's economic environment.

I think Trump is knowlegeable about the things that interest him: real estate/construction etc.

Now when it comes to other topics I think he's extremely ignorant...mainly because he just has/had no interest in educating himself.

Lots of folk like that in the world.

[TGW]

Right. So let's end affirmative action. It clearly isn't necessary.

Sure, but then white people would cry foul.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-benefits-from-affirmative-action-white-men/2017/08/11/4b56907e-7eab-11e7-a669-b400c5c7e1cc_story.html?utm_term=.3225fa101fd9

https://www.bustle.com/p/who-does-affirmative-action-benefit-white-women-are-some-of-its-biggest-opponents-74034

Corporations used to give cognitive tests but they get sued for racial discrimination when they do, because every time they do the test, blacks and mestizos perform worse.

Corporations don't give cognitive tests because there is no link between IQ test scores and business aptitude/success. It's a completely useless exercise. But go right ahead and bring your IQ test scores to your next interview...I'm sure you'll get the job.

When daddy gives you "loans" in excess of $15MM dollars (and trump lied about his "loans" from daddy; according to Ivanka it was well over $20 million), you didn't start from the bottom. And not only that, a $15MM in 1978-1983 was worth about $70MM adjusted for inflation. And on top of that, Trump had no credit at all when he built those buildings in NYC; he needed his daddy's relationship with banks in order to get the credit. So miss me with Trump being self-reliant.

Oh and that's awesome that he had a successful TV show...so do the Kardashians. Although at least they didn't rely on their parents hand me downs to be successful.

[stilldropin20]

DOW over 26 effing thousand!!!!!!!!!!!! yo DCKIngs!! you still think trumps tax plan is NOT working???

If irrational exuberance was the plan - he is killing it.

are you seriously questioning whether or not optimism matters in our markets? You do realize that Barrack Obama might have been the most pessimistic president to ever take office, right? I mean he laid down. he literally laid down on the job and let foreign markets roll over us.

If this were a football game? Obama told all of his coaches to take off their head sets and he put the back up in early in the 2nd quarter. and he stopped looking for talent in the offseason and was 1-15 for nearly 7 straight years. and put a .500 team on the field in his last year.

Trump has a superbowl contender overnight. and they are not being nice nor apologizing for kicking everyone else's azz.

Ownership matters, Management matters. coaching matters. players matter. At this point trump doesn't even have the best players. Not everywhere. His style is so brash and so unapologetic that some high end talent wont play for him. Imagine if we can get off the bull crap narrative because CNN doesn't like trump's style and we can merge our best talent with the best management and coaching this country has had in 35 years.

but yeah, optimism matters. especially at the top.

[nate33]

Right. So let's end affirmative action. It clearly isn't necessary.

Sure, but then white people would cry foul.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-benefits-from-affirmative-action-white-men/2017/08/11/4b56907e-7eab-11e7-a669-b400c5c7e1cc_story.html?utm_term=.3225fa101fd9

https://www.bustle.com/p/who-does-affirmative-action-benefit-white-women-are-some-of-its-biggest-opponents-74034

LOL. Not even worth arguing with you. You are seriously arguing that affirmative action benefits whites more than blacks and that white would oppose its elimination? Seriously?

We're done here.

[TGW]

TGW speakin some truth in that last post

I didn't mean to attack white American males in my last post; they do have value....in America. For example, our finance/banking/real estate sectors are wholly dominated by white males. They have the most aptitude when it comes to those areas. HOWEVER, those are also the areas of our economy that are the most superfluous, uncertain, and problematic parts of our economy. Wall Street gets coddled and bailed out like no other industry even though it has failed countless times. Greed and corruption dominate those industries.

[JWizmentality]

Self made my arse. Nate you know jack squat about Trump. He ran so many of his businesses into the ground. It was an open joke in NY circles what a moron he was. And he was up to his neck in debt. No bank in NY would loan him money. And lo and behold a lot of Russians suddenly started buying up his properties for far more than they were worth. Tick tock mofo. You're going to be floored with what Mueller reveals. But you still be on your fakenews jive.

[TGW]

Right. So let's end affirmative action. It clearly isn't necessary.

Sure, but then white people would cry foul.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-benefits-from-affirmative-action-white-men/2017/08/11/4b56907e-7eab-11e7-a669-b400c5c7e1cc_story.html?utm_term=.3225fa101fd9

https://www.bustle.com/p/who-does-affirmative-action-benefit-white-women-are-some-of-its-biggest-opponents-74034

LOL. Not even worth arguing with you. You are seriously arguing that affirmative action benefits whites more than blacks and that white would oppose its elimination? Seriously?

We're done here.

White women and gay white males benefit the most from affirmative action the most. I'm sure the whiny crybabies on stormfront have been feeding you misinformation for years, but it's true buddy.

[dckingsfan]

DOW over 26 effing thousand!!!!!!!!!!!! yo DCKIngs!! you still think trumps tax plan is NOT working???

If irrational exuberance was the plan - he is killing it.

are you seriously questioning whether or not optimism matters in our markets? You do realize that Barrack Obama might have been the most pessimistic president to ever take office, right? I mean he laid down. he literally laid down on the job and let foreign markets roll over us.

If this were a football game? Obama told all of his coaches to take off their head sets and he put the back up in early in the 2nd quarter. and he stopped looking for talent in the offseason and was 1-15 for nearly 7 straight years. and put a .500 team on the field in his last year.

Trump has a superbowl contender overnight. and they are not being nice nor apologizing for kicking everyone else's azz.

Ownership matters, Management matters. coaching matters. players matter. At this point trump doesn't even have the best players. Not everywhere. His style is so brash and so unapologetic that some high end talent wont play for him. Imagine if we can get off the bull crap narrative because CNN doesn't like trump's style and we can merge our best talent with the best management and coaching this country has had in 35 years.

but yeah, optimism matters. especially at the top.

Optimism vs. irrational exuberance. Long-term capital investment vs. short-term stock buybacks.

His tax policy didn't increase fairness, simplicity or long-term investment. It wasn't a total failure but also nothing to write home about.

So yes, I am seriously questioning the long-term benefits of this Administration.

[dckingsfan]

Read on Twitter

And this is the one part of the tax policy that is a benefit. First, there was lots of cash stashed overseas that was never coming back and never getting taxed. So, bringing it back at a much lower rate is a benefit for both the treasury and local investment.

If I was Trump - this is the part I would push. Now, if he had have also slanted the tax policy toward capital investment at the same time - he would have received a passing grades even if he didn't touch on fairness or simplicity - but the Rs didn't do that.

[gtn130]

And this is the one part of the tax policy that is a benefit. First, there was lots of cash stashed overseas that was never coming back and never getting taxed. So, bringing it back at a much lower rate is a benefit for both the treasury and local investment.

If I was Trump - this is the part I would push. Now, if he had have also slanted the tax policy toward capital investment at the same time - he would have received a passing grades even if he didn't touch on fairness or simplicity - but the Rs didn't do that.

Sets a pretty bad precedent, though

[TGW]

LOL at the stock market being an economic indicator of anything other than the top 1% getting richer. It cracks me up that anyone making less than $5MM a year can brag about the stock market, like that has any reflection on how regular Americans are doing.

And this current economic climate reminds me of the movie "The Big Short." A great movie if you want to see how the mortgage industry crashed the economy, and how one smart dude made a ton of money off the morons who were bragging that the real estate market was crash-proof. Someone should show that movie to the president, but unfortunately I think even the movie's dumbed-down explanations of mortgage-backed securities and CDOs would go over his pea-brained head.

Anyway, I'm going to invest in credit default swaps much like Christian Bale's character, and bet against this boom-bust mortgage industry. It's coming...all the symptoms are there. 30% of the market still consists of upside-down loans from before 2009, sub-prime loans have made a big comeback, and the idiot in the WH is deregulating the market. And just like during Bush's second term, you have idiots bragging about the strength of the economy. It's going to be a bloodbath again...it's just a matter of what side you're on this time.

You make some good points here. The stock market really isn't an economic indicator.

The biggest beneficiaries of the stock market boom has been those with money. And they have tended to be older and have invested their money over time. Those with pensions (where the pensions are invested) have also benefitted. And yes, especially the 1%.

But your last point is the best. The real estate market is again overbought. Although, I am not sure why you are saying this is the fault of this administration? The run-up started well before (2012). This is a Fred and Fanny issue and a tax code issue as much as anything. If you want to assign blame to this period of governance it is they again slanted the tax code toward writing off interest. But, the Ds were defending the same practice, no?

You're absolutely right, dckings. Obama implemented Dodd-Frank, which was entirely too relaxed (vs. Glass-Steagall, which Bill Clinton did away with). I blame the current administration because they are even doing away with Dodd-Frank (my fiance works for Fannie and they are doing away with mandatory stress testing from the Obama admin). The real estate market is pretty much back to pre-recession, wild west tactics. No regulation, no standards. We simply have not learned our lesson.

But yes, to re-emphasize your point, both parties are complicit.

[stilldropin20]

Apple to add 20K jobs, pay $38B US tax bill to repatriate cash

Apple (AAPL) on Wednesday said it will create 20,000 new jobs and establish a new U.S.-based campus as part of $350 billion in new "direct contribution" to the economy.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2018/01/17/apple-to-add-20000-jobs-contribute-350b-to-us-economy.amp.html

The added jobs seem a win.

But again. The repatriated cash benefit is overstated:

Paying $38 billion in taxes now is unlikely to strain Apple’s checkbook because the company had already earmarked $36.4 billion in anticipation that it would eventually have to pay taxes on its foreign earnings.


“From a financial statement perspective, it’s going to be a nonevent,” said J. Richard Harvey, a Villanova University law professor and former Internal Revenue Service official.

that $350B matter folks. Most of it was parked in ireland and paying 10% income tax to ireland.

Now its moved to the US. and paying $38B in taxes to the US. Apple is not alone. Not everyone is announing this. But many have and will.. Trillions are coming back to the US. !!!!! Trillions. It is better to get 21% of something than nothing!!

Global corporations can park their assets elsewhere in foreign banks and markets. and pay their on their cap gains income taxes to foreign countries.

This is huge!!! Huge!!!! This is not a drop in the bucket. The IRS will likely receive close to $1trillion (yes trillion) in additional tax revenue just over the next 2 years. Which will cover the so-called 1 trillion deficit the tax cut supposedly created. talk about lies!!! Dems lied to us about that and their media lied about it everyday for 2 months straight.

Please take note how CNN does NOT even talk about this anymore!!!!!!! because they know they were lying. They know they were wrong. Dems stopped talking about. $1trillion in tax revenue is NOT "crumbs."

and all these 2000-2500 bonuses are NOT crumbs either.

My GF's mom's 401k is now up over $120,000. In 13 months!!! Her 401K was worth $180,000 in 2007. and still only worth about $180,000 in Jan 2016. It was worth about $210,000 on the day Obama left office. It is worth $330,000 today!!!!!! She is has a significant pool of "riskier" investments in her portfolio so she has done exceptionally well in the past year. So she exceeded the market by a few points. but still.

This money matters to her!!! she has is 70 years old and has NOT been able to retire for the last 10 years. and she has been working since she was 21 years old. 50 years!! and she can finally retire!!!

The stock market matters!!!! It matters guys. it matters. I cant even believe how many of you think this doesn't matter.

[dckingsfan]

And this is the one part of the tax policy that is a benefit. First, there was lots of cash stashed overseas that was never coming back and never getting taxed. So, bringing it back at a much lower rate is a benefit for both the treasury and local investment.

If I was Trump - this is the part I would push. Now, if he had have also slanted the tax policy toward capital investment at the same time - he would have received a passing grades even if he didn't touch on fairness or simplicity - but the Rs didn't do that.

Sets a pretty bad precedent, though

Which part?

The first part of the tax policy where the US taxes multi-national corporations on their profits was probably a bad idea in the first place (we are the only country that does this). So, lowering the rate and getting something was a good idea and precedent, no?

The second part of the tax policy that doesn't encourage capital investment is a really bad precedent (IMO).

[Jamaaliver]

that $350B matter folks. Most of it was parked in ireland and paying 10% income tax to ireland.

Those numbers are...misleading.

Don't let Apple's accountants fool you:

Apple estimated that its direct impact on the American economy would total more than $350 billion over the next five years, but how much that goes beyond what the company would have spent anyway is unclear.

[Based on] Apple’s current pace of spending in the United States...it was already on track to spend $275 billion over the next five years.

New York Times



Even Apple's own CEO admits some of this was already in the works:

"Let me be clear: There are large parts of this that are a result of the tax reform, and there's large parts of this we would have done in any situation."

NPR